Local bone-marrow exposure: how to interpret the data on stable chromosome aberrations in circulating lymphocytes? (some comments on the use of FISH method for dose reconstruction for Techa riverside Residents).

The method of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) applied to peripheral blood T lymphocytes is used for retrospective dose estimation, and the results obtained from the analysis of stable chromosomal aberrations are usually interpreted as a dose accumulated in the red bone marrow (RBM). However, after local internal exposure of the RBM, doses derived from FISH were found to be lower than those derived from direct measurements of radionuclides accumulated in the bodies of exposed persons. These results were obtained for people residing near the Techa River contaminated by 89,90Sr (beta-emitters) in 1949-1956 (Chelyabinsk Oblast, Russia). A new analysis has been performed of the combined results of FISH studies (n = 178) undertaken during 1994-2012 for persons living on the Techa Riverside. Analysis confirms the lower slope of the translocation yield per Gy (8.0 ± 0.7 × 10-3) for Techa residents in comparison with FISH data for donors with external exposures (11.6 ± 1.6 × 10-3, Tawn et al., Radiat Res 184(3):296-303, 2015). It was suggested that some portion of T cells remained unexposed, because they represented the descendants of T cell progenitors, which had migrated to the thymus before the start of 89,90Sr intakes. To clarify this problem, the dynamics of T-cell Genera (TG), combining all descendants of specific T-cell progenitor reaching the thymus, was considered. Rates of TGs produced by RBM over different age periods of human life were estimated with the use of the mathematic model of T-cell homeostasis (Bains, Mathematical modeling of T-cell homeostasis. A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University College London. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/20159/1/20159.pdf , 2010). The rate of TG loss during the lifetime was assumed to be very small in comparison with production rate. The recirculation of mature T lymphocytes in contaminated RBM was taken into account. According to our model estimates, at the time of blood sampling, the fraction of exposed T lymphocytes (whose progenitors were irradiated) ranged from 20 to 80% depending on the donors' age at the start of exposure to 89,90Sr. Dose to T lymphocytes, estimated from FISH studies, should be about 0.6-0.9 of RBM dose for residents of the upper Techa region and about 0.4-0.8 in the middle Techa region. Our results could explain the lower value of translocation yield per Gy obtained for Techa residents. The approaches for further model improvement and validation are discussed in this paper.

A Methodology for Calculating Inhalation Dose to Public Health Personnel Exposed to Material Resuspended from Evacuees Following the Detonation of a Fission Device.

ABSTRACT: Following a nuclear fission event, there likely would be a large number of contaminated persons who would seek assistance at community reception centers to be established outside the affected area. This paper provides a methodology for calculating inhalation doses to public health and other response personnel at such facilities who would be receiving and assisting potentially contaminated persons from whom particles can be resuspended. Three hypothetical facilities were considered: the Base Case is a rather small room with no forced air ventilation. The Preferred Case, which is more realistic, is a mid-sized room with an operating HVAC system with air being recirculated through a filter. The Gymnasium Case has only fresh air intake. Initial bounding calculations for the Base Case indicated the need for pre-screening of arrivals to avoid unacceptable doses to staff. The screening criterion selected was 1.67 × 10 6 Bq m -2 . Calculations are presented for radionuclide concentrations in air, dose to staff from inhalation, and how exposures and the resulting doses can be altered by air-turnover rates and the use of filters with varying efficiency. Doses are presented for various arrival times and for both plutonium- and uranium-fueled detonations. The highest calculated dose via inhalation with no respiratory protection was 0.23 mSv for the Base Case. The more important radionuclides contributing to dose with exposure starting at day D + 1 were 239 Np and 133 I. At day D + 30, 131 I and 140 Ba were the more important dosimetrically. The variable creating the highest uncertainty was the slough-off factor for resuspension of contamination from people arriving at the reception center.

Dose Coefficients for Internal Dose Assessments for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout.

ABSTRACT: This paper presents values as well as the bases for calculating internal dose coefficients suitable for estimating organ doses from the exposure to radioactive fallout that could result from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. The 34 radionuclides discussed are the same as those given in a priority list of radionuclides for fallout dose assessments presented in a companion overview paper. The radionuclides discussed are those that are believed to account for a preponderance of the organ doses that might be received by intake by persons of all ages (including in utero and via breast feeding for infants) following exposure to radioactive fallout. The presented dose coefficients for ingestion account for age and include modifications for variations in solubility with distance as discussed previously in the literature, and those for inhalation similarly account for age, solubility, and particle sizes that would be relevant at various distances of exposure as discussed in a companion paper on ingestion dose methods. The proposed modifications peculiar to radioactive fallout account for systematic changes in solubility and particle sizes with distance from the site of detonation, termed here as the region of "local fallout" and the region "beyond local fallout." Brief definitions of these regions are provided here with more detailed discussion in a companion paper on estimating deposition of fallout radionuclides. This paper provides the dose coefficients for ingestion and inhalation (for particle sizes of 1 µm, 5 µm, 10 µm, and 20 µm) for the region "local fallout." These dose coefficients for "local fallout" are specific for particles formed in a nuclear explosion that can be large and have radionuclides, particularly the more refractory ones, distributed throughout the volume where the radionuclide has reduced solubility. The dose coefficients for the region "beyond local fallout" are assumed to be the ones published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) in 1995. Comparisons of the presented dose coefficients are made with values published by the ICRP.

Dose Estimation for Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the prospects that a nuclear device might be detonated due to a regional or global political conflict, by violation of present nuclear weapons test ban agreements, or due to an act of terrorism, has increased. Thus, the need exists for a well conceptualized, well described, and internally consistent methodology for dose estimation that takes full advantage of the experience gained over the last 70 y in both measurement technology and dose assessment methodology. Here, the models, rationale, and data needed for a detailed state-of-the-art dose assessment for exposure to radioactive fallout from nuclear detonations discussed in five companion papers are summarized. These five papers present methods and data for estimating radionuclide deposition of fallout radionuclides, internal and external dose from the deposited fallout, and discussion of the uncertainties in the assessed doses. In addition, this paper includes a brief discussion of secondary issues related to assessments of radiation dose from fallout. The intention of this work is to provide a usable and consistent methodology for both prospective and retrospective assessments of exposure from radioactive fallout from a nuclear detonation.

A Method for Estimating the Deposition Density of Fallout on the Ground and on Vegetation from a Low-yield, Low-altitude Nuclear Detonation.

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a relatively simple model developed from observations of local fallout from US and USSR nuclear tests that allows reasonable estimates to be made of the deposition density (activity per unit area) on both the ground and on vegetation for each radionuclide of interest produced in a nuclear fission detonation as a function of location and time after the explosion. In addition to accounting for decay rate and in-growth of radionuclides, the model accounts for the fractionation (modification of the relative activity of various fission and activation products in fallout relative to that produced in the explosion) that results from differences in the condensation temperatures of the various fission and activation products produced in the explosion. The proposed methodology can be used to estimate the deposition density of all fallout radionuclides produced in a low yield, low altitude fission detonation that contribute significantly to dose. The method requires only data from post-detonation measurements of exposure rate (or beta or a specific nuclide activity) and fallout time-of-arrival. These deposition-density estimates allow retrospective as well as rapid prospective estimates to be made of both external and internal radiation exposure to downwind populations living within a few hundred kilometers of ground zero, as described in the companion papers in this volume.

A Methodology for Estimating External Doses to Individuals and Populations Exposed to Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations.

ABSTRACT: A methodology of assessment of the doses from external irradiation resulting from the ground deposition of radioactive debris (fallout) from a nuclear detonation is proposed in this paper. The input data used to apply this methodology for a particular location are the outdoor exposure rate at any time after deposition of fallout and the time-of-arrival of fallout, as indicated and discussed in a companion paper titled "A Method for Estimating the Deposition Density of Fallout on the Ground and on Vegetation from a Low-yield Low-altitude Nuclear Detonation." Example doses are estimated for several age categories and for all radiosensitive organs and tissues identified in the most recent ICRP publications. Doses are calculated for the first year after the detonation, when more than 90% of the external dose is delivered for populations close to the detonation site over a time period of 70 y, which is intended to represent the lifetime dose. Modeled doses in their simplest form assume no environmental remediation, though modifications can be introduced. Two types of dose assessment are considered: (1) initial, for a rapid but only approximate dose estimation soon after the nuclear detonation; and (2) improved, for a later, more accurate, dose assessment following the analysis of post-detonation measurements of radiation exposure and fallout deposition and the access of information on the lifestyle of the exposed population.

A Methodology for Calculation of Internal Dose Following Exposure to Radioactive Fallout from the Detonation of a Nuclear Fission Device.

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for the calculation of internal doses of radiation following exposure to radioactive fallout from the detonation of a nuclear fission device. Reliance is on methodology previously published in the open literature or in reports not readily available, though some new analysis is also included. Herein, we present two methodologic variations: one simpler to implement, the other more difficult but more flexible. The intention is to provide in one place a comprehensive methodology. Pathways considered are (1) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by fallout directly, (2) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by continuing deposition by rain- or irrigation-splash and resuspension, (3) the ingestion of vegetables and fruits contaminated by absorption of radionuclides by roots after tillage of soil, (4) the non-equilibrium transfer of short-lived radionuclides through the cow-milk and goat-milk food chains, (5) the equilibrium transfer of long lived radionuclides through milk and meat food chains, and (6) inhalation of descending fallout. Uncertainty in calculated results is considered. This is one of six companion papers that describe a comprehensive methodology for assessing both external and internal dose following exposures to fallout from a nuclear detonation. Input required to implement the dose-estimation model for any particular location consists of an estimate of the post-detonation external gamma-exposure rate and an estimate of the time of arrival of the fallout cloud. The additional data required to make such calculations are included in the six companion papers.

Parameter Values for Estimation of Internal Doses from Ingestion of Radioactive Fallout from Nuclear Detonations.

ABSTRACT: This paper suggests values or probability distributions for a variety of parameters used in estimating internal doses from radioactive fallout due to ingestion of food. Parameters include those needed to assess the interception and initial retention of radionuclides by vegetation, translocation of deposited radionuclides to edible plant parts, root uptake by plants, transfer of radionuclides from vegetation into milk and meat, transfer of radionuclides into non-agricultural plants and wildlife, and transfer from food and drinking water to mother's milk (human breast milk). The paper includes discussions of the weathering half-life for contamination on plant surfaces, biological half-lives of organisms, food processing (culinary factors), and contamination of drinking water. As appropriate, and as information exists, parameter values or distributions are specific for elements, chemical forms, plant types, or other relevant characteristics. Information has been obtained from the open literature and from publications of the International Atomic Energy Agency. These values and probability distributions are intended to be generic; they should be reviewed for applicability to a given location, time period, or season of the year, as appropriate. In particular, agricultural practices and dietary habits may vary considerably both with geography and over time in a given location.

Does the cortical bone resorption rate change due to 90Sr-radiation exposure? Analysis of data from Techa Riverside residents.

The Mayak Production Association released large amounts of (90)Sr into the Techa River (Southern Urals, Russia) with peak amounts in 1950-1951. Techa Riverside residents ingested an average of about 3,000 kBq of (90)Sr. The (90)Sr-body burden of approximately 15,000 individuals has been measured in the Urals Research Center for Radiation Medicine in 1974-1997 with use of a special whole-body counter (WBC). Strontium-90 had mainly deposited in the cortical part of the skeleton by 25 years following intake, and (90)Sr elimination occurs as a result of cortical bone resorption. The effect of (90)Sr-radiation exposure on the rate of cortical bone resorption was studied. Data on 2,022 WBC measurements were selected for 207 adult persons, who were measured three or more times before they were 50-55 years old. The individual-resorption rates were calculated with the rate of strontium recirculation evaluated as 0.0018 year(-1). Individual absorbed doses in red bone marrow (RBM) and bone surface (BS) were also calculated. Statistically significant negative relationships of cortical bone resorption rate were discovered related to (90)Sr-body burden and dose absorbed in the RBM or the BS. The response appears to have a threshold of about 1.5-Gy RBM dose. The radiation-induced decrease in bone resorption rate may not be significant in terms of health. However, a decrease in bone remodeling rate can be among several causes of an increased level of degenerative dystrophic bone pathology in exposed persons.

Risk of hematological malignancies among Chernobyl liquidators.

A case-control study of hematological malignancies was conducted among Chernobyl liquidators (accident recovery workers) from Belarus, Russia and Baltic countries to assess the effect of low- to medium-dose protracted radiation exposures on the relative risk of these diseases. The study was nested within cohorts of liquidators who had worked around the Chernobyl plant in 1986-1987. A total of 117 cases [69 leukemia, 34 non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and 14 other malignancies of lymphoid and hematopoietic tissue] and 481 matched controls were included in the study. Individual dose to the bone marrow and uncertainties were estimated for each subject. The main analyses were restricted to 70 cases (40 leukemia, 20 NHL and 10 other) and their 287 matched controls with reliable information on work in the Chernobyl area. Most subjects received very low doses (median 13 mGy). For all diagnoses combined, a significantly elevated OR was seen at doses of 200 mGy and above. The excess relative risk (ERR) per 100 mGy was 0.60 [90% confidence interval (CI) -0.02, 2.35]. The corresponding estimate for leukemia excluding chronic lymphoid leukemia (CLL) was 0.50 (90% CI -0.38, 5.7). It is slightly higher than but statistically compatible with those estimated from A-bomb survivors and recent low-dose-rate studies. Although sensitivity analyses showed generally similar results, we cannot rule out the possibility that biases and uncertainties could have led to over- or underestimation of the risk in this study.

Doses to members of the general public and observed effects on biota: Chernobyl Forum update.

The Chernobyl Forum was organized by the United Nations to examine the health and environmental effects of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. This paper is concerned with the environmental effects, as determined by Expert Group Environment. The accident resulted in release of a large amount of radioactive materials over a period of 10 days. These materials were deposited throughout Europe with the three more affected countries being Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. More than 5 million persons lived on territories in these countries judged to be contaminated at >37kBqm(-2). Many countermeasures were employed to mitigate the effects of the accident. The collective effective dose to the residents of the contaminated territories is estimated to be about 55,000 person-Sv. Effects on non-human biota were observed that ranged from minor to lethal; the current increase in the number and diversity of species in the most contaminated area is due to absence of human pressure.

Review of methods of dose estimation for epidemiological studies of the radiological impact of nevada test site and global fallout.

Methods to assess radiation doses from nuclear weapons test fallout have been used to estimate doses to populations and individuals in a number of studies. However, only a few epidemiology studies have relied on fallout dose estimates. Though the methods for assessing doses from local and regional compared to global fallout are similar, there are significant differences in predicted doses and contributing radionuclides depending on the source of the fallout, e.g. whether the nuclear debris originated in Nevada at the U.S. nuclear test site or whether it originated at other locations worldwide. The sparse historical measurement data available are generally sufficient to estimate external exposure doses reasonably well. However, reconstruction of doses to body organs from ingestion and inhalation of radionuclides is significantly more complex and is almost always more uncertain than are external dose estimates. Internal dose estimates are generally based on estimates of the ground deposition per unit area of specific radionuclides and subsequent transport of radionuclides through the food chain. A number of technical challenges to correctly modeling deposition of fallout under wet and dry atmospheric conditions still remain, particularly at close-in locations where sizes of deposited particles vary significantly over modest changes in distance. This paper summarizes the various methods of dose estimation from weapons test fallout and the most important dose assessment and epidemiology studies that have relied on those methods.

2004 update of dosimetry for the Utah Thyroid Cohort Study.

In the 1980s, individual thyroid doses and uncertainties were estimated for members of a cohort of children identified in 1965 in Utah and Nevada who had potentially been exposed to fallout from the Nevada Test Site. That reconstruction represented the first comprehensive assessment of doses received by the cohort and was the first large effort to assess the uncertainty of dose on an individual person basis. The data on dose and thyroid disease prevalence during different periods were subsequently used in an analysis to determine risks of radiogenic thyroid disease. This cohort has received periodic medical follow-up to observe changes in disease frequency and to reassess the previously reported radiation-related risks, most recently after a Congressional mandate in 1998. In a recent effort to restore the databases and computer codes used to estimate doses in the 1980s, various deficiencies were found in the estimated doses due to improperly operating computer codes, corruption of secondary data files, and lack of quality control procedures. From 2001 through 2004, the dosimetry system was restored and corrected and all doses were recalculated. In addition, two parameter values were updated. While the mean of all doses has not changed significantly, many individual doses have changed by more than an order of magnitude.

External dose estimates for Dolon village: application of the U.S./Russian joint methodology.

Methods to estimate external dose from radioactive fallout from nuclear tests have for many years depended on two types of data: measurements of exposure rate in air and an empirically derived power function to describe the change in exposure rate with time, Over the last four years, a working group with American and Russian participation has developed a bi-national joint methodology that offers an improved capability for estimating external dose. In this method, external dose is estimated using exposure rate functions derived from data from American nuclear tests similar in construction to SNTS (Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site) devices. For example, in this paper, we derive doses for test #1 (August 29, 1949) at the SNTS using an exposure rate function for the U.S. TRINITY test. For the case of test #1, the average external dose for a person in Dolon is estimated to have been about 0.5 Gy compared to 1 to 2 Gy estimated in other work. This prediction agrees better with reported EPR measurements in teeth from village residents and with measurements of TL signals in bricks from Dolon buildings. This report presents the basic elements of the joint methodology model for estimation of external dose received from SNTS fallout.

Individual thyroid dose estimates for a case-control study of chernobyl-related thyroid cancer among children of Belarus--part II. Contributions from long-lived radionuclides and external radiation.

Significant quantities of long-lived radionuclides were released to the environment during the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. These radionuclides contributed to radiation doses due to ingestion of contaminated foods and external exposure from the ground deposition that resulted. The contributions of these exposure pathways to thyroid doses received by subjects of an epidemiologic study of children from Belarus are evaluated and presented. The analysis shows that ingestion of the long-lived radionuclides, primarily radiocesium, typically contributed a small percentage of the total thyroid dose received by the study subjects. The median and mean fractional contributions were 0.76 and 0.95%, respectively. The contribution of external exposure to the thyroid dose was generally larger and more variable, with median and mean contributions of 1.2 and 1.8% of the total thyroid doses, respectively. For regions close to the reactor site, where radionuclide deposition was highest, the contributions of radiocesium ingestion and external exposure were generally lower than those of the short-lived radioiodine isotopes (132I and 133I) and their precursors (132Te). In other areas, the contributions of these two pathways were comparable to those of the short-lived radioiodines. For all subjects, intakes of 131I were the primary source of dose to the thyroid.

Electron paramagnetic resonance and fluorescence in situ hybridization-based investigations of individual doses for persons living at Metlino in the upper reaches of the Techa River.

Waterborne releases to the Techa River from the Mayak Production Association in Russia during 1949-1956 resulted in significant doses to persons living downstream; the most contaminated village was Metlino, about 7 km from the site of release. Internal and external doses have been estimated for these residents using the Techa River Dosimetry System-2000 (TRDS-2000); the primary purpose is to support epidemiological studies of the members of the Extended Techa River Cohort. Efforts to validate the calculations of external and internal dose are considered essential. One validation study of the TRDS-2000 system has been performed by the comparison of calculated doses to quartz from bricks in old buildings at Metlino with those measured by luminescence dosimetry. Two additional methods of validation considered here are electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements of teeth and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) measurements of chromosome translocations in circulating lymphocytes. For electron paramagnetic resonance, 36 measurements on 26 teeth from 16 donors from Metlino were made at the GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health (16 measurements) and the Institute of Metal Physics (20 measurements); the correlation among measurements made at the two laboratories has been found to be 0.99. Background measurements were also made on 218 teeth (63 molars, 128 premolars, and 27 incisors). Fluorescence in situ hybridization measurements were made for 31 residents of Metlino. These measurements were handicapped by the analysis of a limited number of cells; for several individuals no stable translocations were observed. Fluorescence in situ hybridization measurements were also made for 39 individuals believed to be unexposed. The EPR- and FISH-based estimates agreed well for permanent residents of Metlino: 0.67 +/- 0.21 Gy and 0.48 +/- 0.18 Gy (mean +/- standard error of the mean), respectively. Results of the two experimental methods also agreed well with the estimates derived from the use of the TRDS-2000. For all persons investigated according to each technique, the EPR-measured dose to enamel was 0.55 +/- 0.17 Gy, and the TRDS-2000 prediction for the dose to enamel for these individuals is 0.55 +/- 0.07 Gy. The fluorescence in situ hybridization-based dose, 0.38 +/- 0.10 Gy, compared well to the TRDS-2000 prediction of external dose, 0.31 +/- 0.03 Gy, to red bone marrow for these persons. Validation of external doses at the remaining villages is an active area of investigation.

Chernobyl accident: retrospective and prospective estimates of external dose of the population of Ukraine.

Following the Chernobyl accident many activities were conducted in Ukraine in order to define the radiological impact. Considered here are gamma spectrometric analyses of soil-depth-profile samples taken in the years 1988-1999, gamma spectrometric measurements of radionuclide concentration in soil samples taken in 1986, and measurements of external gamma-exposure rate in air. These data are analyzed in this paper to derive a "reference" radionuclide composition and an attenuation function for the time-dependent rate of external gamma exposure that changes due to the migration of radiocesium into the soil column. An attenuation function for cesium is derived that consists of two exponential functions with half lives of 1.5 and 50 y. The dependencies of attenuation on direction and distance from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant are also demonstrated. On the basis of these analyses the average individual and collective external gamma doses for the population of Ukraine are derived for 1986, 1986-2000, and 1986-2055. For the 1.4 million persons living in rural areas with 137Cs contamination of >37 kBq m(-2), the collective effective dose from external exposure is estimated to be 7,500 person-Sv by the end of 2000. A critical group of 22,500 persons who received individual doses of >20 mSv is identified for consideration of increased social and medical attention.