Combining climatic and soil properties better predicts covers of Brazilian biomes.

Several techniques have been used to model the area covered by biomes or species. However, most models allow little freedom of choice of response variables and are conditioned to the use of climate predictors. This major restriction of the models has generated distributions of low accuracy or inconsistent with the actual cover. Our objective was to characterize the environmental space of the most representative biomes of Brazil and predict their cover, using climate and soil-related predictors. As sample units, we used 500 cells of 100 km2 for ten biomes, derived from the official vegetation map of Brazil (IBGE 2004). With a total of 38 (climatic and soil-related) predictors, an a priori model was run with the random forest classifier. Each biome was calibrated with 75% of the samples. The final model was based on four climate and six soil-related predictors, the most important variables for the a priori model, without collinearity. The model reached a kappa value of 0.82, generating a highly consistent prediction with the actual cover of the country. We showed here that the richness of biomes should not be underestimated, and that in spite of the complex relationship, highly accurate modeling based on climatic and soil-related predictors is possible. These predictors are complementary, for covering different parts of the multidimensional niche. Thus, a single biome can cover a wide range of climatic space, versus a narrow range of soil types, so that its prediction is best adjusted by soil-related variables, or vice versa.

Phytogeographical patterns of dry forests sensu stricto in northern Minas Gerais State, Brazil.

The Deciduous Complex that occurs in northern Minas Gerais State, Brazil, raises questions about the floristic affinities of these formations in relation to neighboring phytogeographical domains. Little is known about the identity of the seasonal forest formations that comprise this complex, or about its relationships to abiotic components, such as soils, topography and climate. This study aimed to recognize the patterns of floristic similarity of all studied fragments of dry forest of northern Minas Gerais with soil and climate attributes, based on the available database. Cluster analysis indicated the existence of two floristic groups that had clear associations with either the Koppen's BSh (semi-arid) or Aw (seasonal tropical) climates. Likewise, the subdivisions of these groups showed clear associations with the dominant soil classes in the region. The Red-Yellow Latosol is the dominant soil classes in the BSh climatic domain, seconded by alluvial areas associated with Fluvic Neosols. The Aw domain comprised a much varied set of soils: Nitosols, Argisols, Cambisols and Litholic Neosols, most derived from the Bambuí limestone/slate formation. The ecotonal nature of northern Minas Gerais State provides a complex interaction between the flora of neighboring phytogeographical domains. This, allied to pedogeomorphological factors, allowed a better understanding of the effects of late Quaternary climate changes for the Deciduous Complex evolution. We conclude that the Latosols under present-day semi-arid climates (BSh) are relicts of former wetter climates, during which humid forest (semideciduous) expansion took place. Later, these semideciduous forests were subjected to a much drier climate, when selection for deciduousness led to the present-days Deciduous Complex scenario.