A simulation-based method to inform serosurvey design for estimating the force of infection using existing blood samples.

The extent to which dengue virus has been circulating globally and especially in Africa is largely unknown. Testing available blood samples from previous cross-sectional serological surveys offers a convenient strategy to investigate past dengue infections, as such serosurveys provide the ideal data to reconstruct the age-dependent immunity profile of the population and to estimate the average per-capita annual risk of infection: the force of infection (FOI), which is a fundamental measure of transmission intensity. In this study, we present a novel methodological approach to inform the size and age distribution of blood samples to test when samples are acquired from previous surveys. The method was used to inform SERODEN, a dengue seroprevalence survey which is currently being conducted in Ghana among other countries utilizing samples previously collected for a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey. The method described in this paper can be employed to determine sample sizes and testing strategies for different diseases and transmission settings.

High seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Burkina-Faso, Ghana and Madagascar in 2021: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The current COVID-19 pandemic affects the entire world population and has serious health, economic and social consequences. Assessing the prevalence of COVID-19 through population-based serological surveys is essential to monitor the progression of the epidemic, especially in African countries where the extent of SARS-CoV-2 spread remains unclear. METHODS: A two-stage cluster population-based SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence survey was conducted in Bobo-Dioulasso and in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Fianarantsoa, Madagascar and Kumasi, Ghana between February and June 2021. IgG seropositivity was determined in 2,163 households with a specificity improved SARS-CoV-2 Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay. Population seroprevalence was evaluated using a Bayesian logistic regression model that accounted for test performance and age, sex and neighbourhood of the participants. RESULTS: Seroprevalence adjusted for test performance and population characteristics were 55.7% [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 49·0; 62·8] in Bobo-Dioulasso, 37·4% [95% CrI 31·3; 43·5] in Ouagadougou, 41·5% [95% CrI 36·5; 47·2] in Fianarantsoa, and 41·2% [95% CrI 34·5; 49·0] in Kumasi. Within the study population, less than 6% of participants performed a test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection since the onset of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: High exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was found in the surveyed regions albeit below the herd immunity threshold and with a low rate of previous testing for acute infections. Despite the high seroprevalence in our study population, the duration of protection from naturally acquired immunity remains unclear and new virus variants continue to emerge. This highlights the importance of vaccine deployment and continued preventive measures to protect the population at risk.

An IL7RA exon 5 polymorphism is associated with impaired IL-7Rα splicing and protection against tuberculosis in Ghana.

Functional interleukin-7 receptor α-chain (IL-7Rα) genetic variants, which affect alternative splicing and expression of the soluble IL-7Rα, are associated with susceptibility to autoimmunity. We previously described aberrant IL-7Rα expression and impaired IL-7-mediated T-cell functions in tuberculosis patients. In the present study, we investigated a possible role of IL7RA gene variants. Six exonic IL7RA polymorphisms were genotyped and two minor alleles were found at lower frequencies in tuberculosis patients as compared to healthy contacts from Ghana (rs11567764, p = 0.002; rs1494558, p = 0.01). The rs11567764 polymorphism tags an IL7RA haplotype exclusively found in African populations and was predicted to affect splicing of exon 5. Reduced mRNA expression of the Δexon_5-6 variant was found in T-cells from carriers of the protective rs11567764 allele. Although we were not able to demonstrate the causative effect of rs11567764, our findings suggested functional implications of genetic variants on IL-7Rα splicing and with potential impact on T-cell protection against tuberculosis.

Alternative Quantiferon cytokines for diagnosis of children with active tuberculosis and HIV co-infection in Ghana.

IFN-γ release assays (IGRAs) often present false-negative or indeterminate results in children with tuberculosis. HIV co-infection may contribute to decreased sensitivity of IGRAs by impairing T-cell IFN-γ expression. Measurement of alternative cytokines in QuantiFERON® (QFT) supernatants can circumvent the IFN-γ-dependency and may improve QFT sensitivity. We aimed to identify additional cytokines from QFT supernatants for detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children with tuberculosis and HIV co-infection from Ghana. Concentrations of 18 cytokines in QFT supernatants from children (0-16 years) with tuberculosis concomitantly infected with HIV (n = 25) or without HIV (n = 24) from Ghana were measured using cytometric bead array (CBA). 29% of the children showed positive IFN-γ test results, and five cytokines, i.e., IL-6, IL-21, TNF-α, IL-1α and IP-10, detected M. tuberculosis infection with comparable or, for IL-6, with significantly higher sensitivity (59%). Increased age and HIV co-infection were associated with decreased cytokine induction, and especially IL-21 and IP-10 were less prevalent in HIV co-infected children with tuberculosis. Combined cytokine analyses increased proportions of positive tests, and a four-cytokine subset (i.e., IL-6, IL-21, IFN-γ, IL-1α) predicted 78% of the children with tuberculosis correctly. Combined evaluation of IFN-γ and alternative cytokines improved IGRA-sensitivity in children with tuberculosis.

Variations in levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in type 2 diabetes mellitus between rural and urban Ashanti Region of Ghana.

BACKGROUND: A surge in pro-inflammatory markers, Il-6 and TNF-α, has been associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, there is no data on the dynamics of these markers in T2DM Ghanaian populations. The aim of this study was to determine variations in the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in T2DM patients. This study also examined the associations of IL-6 and TNF-α with anthropometric measurement and the effect of co-morbidity with hypertension using rural and urban dwellers in the Ashanti region, Ghana. METHODS: A nested case-control design using participants aged 25-70 years consisting of 77 T2DM ± hypertension patients and 112 controls were selected from a larger study on Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM). Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure and body fat percentage were measured. Fasting blood samples were analyzed for glucose, IL-6 and TNF-α levels. RESULTS: The median level of IL-6 was significantly higher (p < 0.0001) among rural dwellers compared to urban dwellers. Inversely, urban dwellers had significantly higher (p = 0.0424) median level of TNF-α compared to rural cases. No significant differences were observed in IL-6 (p = 0.3571) and TNF-α (p = 0.2581) among T2DM patients compared with T2DM ± hypertension patients. A weak negative correlation was found between IL-6 and BMI in urban T2DM. DISCUSSION: The average level of IL-6 was higher in rural T2DM participants compared with those in urban setting. However, higher levels of TNF-α was observed among the study participants with T2DM in urban settings compared to those of rural. In this study, we observed that co-morbidity of hypertension had no significant effect on the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α. We are of the opinion that higher physical activity levels among rural particpants and high obesity levels in urabn participants explain the observation but needs more numbers to validate. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that IL-6 levels were higher among rural dwellers than urban while TNF-α levels were higher in urban dwellers than rural in patients with T2DM. There was no association of body fat percentage and body mass index with IL-6 and TNF-α levels. Co-morbidity of hypertension with T2DM had no effect on IL-6 and TNF-α levels.

A scorecard of progress towards measles elimination in 15 west African countries, 2001-19: a retrospective, multicountry analysis of national immunisation coverage and surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: The WHO Regional Office for the Africa Regional Immunization Technical Advisory Group, in 2011, adopted the measles control and elimination goals for all countries of the African region to achieve in 2015 and 2020 respectively. Our aim was to track the current status of progress towards measles control and elimination milestones across 15 west African countries between 2001 and 2019. METHODS: We did a retrospective multicountry series analysis of national immunisation coverage and case surveillance data from Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2019. Our analysis focused on the 15 west African countries that constitute the Economic Community of West African States. We tracked progress in the coverage of measles-containing vaccines (MCVs), measles supplementary immunisation activities, and measles incidence rates. We developed a country-level measles summary scorecard using eight indicators to track progress towards measles elimination as of the end of 2019. The summary indicators were tracked against measles control and elimination milestones. FINDINGS: The weighted average regional first-dose MCV coverage in 2019 was 66% compared with 45% in 2001. 73% (11 of 15) of the west African countries had introduced second-dose MCV as of December, 2019. An estimated 4 588 040 children (aged 12-23 months) did not receive first-dose MCV in 2019, the majority (71%) of whom lived in Nigeria. Based on the scorecard, 12 (80%) countries are off-track to achieving measles elimination milestones; however, Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana have made substantial progress. INTERPRETATION: Measles will continue to be endemic in west Africa after 2020. The regional measles incidence rate in 2019 was 33 times the 2020 elimination target of less than 1 case per million population. However, some hope exists as countries can look at the efforts made by Cape Verde, The Gambia, and Ghana and learn from them. FUNDING: None.

Epidemiological profile of SARS-CoV-2 among selected regions in Ghana: A cross-sectional retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Global cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, causing havoc to several economies. So far, Ghana has recorded 48,643 confirmed cases with 320 associated deaths. Although summaries of data are usually provided by the Ministry of Health, detailed epidemiological profile of cases are limited. This study sought to describe the socio-demographic features, pattern of COVID-19 spread and the viral load dynamics among subjects residing in northern, middle and part of the southern belt of Ghana. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional retrospective study that reviewed records of samples collected from February to July, 2020. Respiratory specimens such as sputum, deep-cough saliva and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from suspected COVID-19 subjects in 12 regions of Ghana for laboratory analysis and confirmation by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: A total of 72,434 samples were collected during the review period, with majority of the sampled individuals being females (37,464; 51.9%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 identified in the study population was 13.2% [95%CI: 12.9, 13.4). Males were mostly infected (4,897; 51.5%) compared to females. Individuals between the ages 21-30 years recorded the highest number of infections (3,144, 33.4%). Symptomatic subjects had higher viral loads (1479.7 copies/µl; IQR = 40.6-178919) than asymptomatic subjects (49.9; IQR = 5.5-3641.6). There was significant association between gender or age and infection with SARS-CoV-2 (p<0.05). Among all the suspected clinical presentations, anosmia was the strongest predictor of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Adj. OR (95%CI): 24.39 (20.18, 29.49). We observed an average reproductive number of 1.36 with a minimum of 1.28 and maximum of 1.43. The virus trajectory shows a gradual reduction of the virus reproductive number. CONCLUSION: This study has described the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 cases in northern, middle and part of the southern belt of Ghana, with males and younger individuals at greater risk of contracting the disease. Health professionals should be conscious of individuals presenting with anosmia since this was seen as the strongest predictor of virus infection.

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Prediction of mortality at initial hospitalization is unknown in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis. AIM: This study aimed to look at the role of MELD score and SIRS as the predictors of morbidity and mortality at initial hospitalization. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 159 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 49 years, 70.4% males). The role of Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score, MELD score, and SIRS on mortality was determined by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the prognosis factors were assessed with Cox regression model. RESULTS: At initial hospitalization, 74.2%, 20.1%, and 37.7% of the patients with cirrhosis showed the presence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and esophageal varices, respectively. During the in-hospital follow-up, 40 (25.2%) patients died. The overall incidence of mortality was found to be 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2-4.1] per 100 person-days. Survival probabilities were found to be high in case of patients who were SIRS negative (log-rank test= 4.51, p=0.03) and in case of patients with MELD score ≤16 (log-rank test=7.26, p=0.01) compared to the patients who were SIRS positive and those with MELD score >16. Only SIRS (hazard ratio (HR)=3.02, [95% CI: 1.4-7.4], p=0.01) and MELD score >16 (HR=2.2, [95% CI: 1.1-4.3], p=0.02) were independent predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis except CPT, which was not relevant in our study. Patients with MELD score >16 experienced hepatorenal syndrome (p=0.002) and encephalopathy (p=0.001) more frequently than that of patients with MELD score ≤16. SIRS was not useful in predicting complications. CONCLUSION: MELD score and SIRS can be used as tools for the prediction of mortality in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.