Accuracy of Administrative Coding to Identify Reduced and Preserved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Coding of systolic function in heart failure is important, but the accuracy is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from a chart review of VA heart failure hospitalizations from 2006 to 2013. Trained abstractors determined the documented diagnosis of heart failure and the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). We compared this LVEF with the primary and secondary International Classification of Disease, 9th edition, codes for heart failure for the same hospitalization. Among 43,044 hospitalizations for heart failure, the primary discharge diagnosis was coded as systolic heart failure in 18%, diastolic heart failure in 17%, and other heart failure codes in 65%. For an LVEF <40%, a systolic heart failure code had a sensitivity of 29% and a positive predictive value of 76%. The code for systolic heart failure was used more frequently over time, with sensitivity increasing from 16% to 37% but at the expense of the positive predictive value, which decreased from 80% to 74%. The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the relationship between LVEF and the systolic heart failure code was 0.71. Using LVEF >50% to define diastolic heart failure led to a sensitivity of 29% for a diastolic heart failure code, with a positive predictive value of 78%. In multivariate analysis, a systolic heart failure code had an odds ratio for 1-year mortality of 1.1 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.17) compared to not having a systolic heart failure code. CONCLUSIONS: Coding for systolic and diastolic heart failure is associated with LVEF, but the accuracy is too poor to substitute for the documented LVEF in performance measurement.

Coronary Artery Disease in HIV-Infected Patients: Downside of Living Longer.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased the life expectancy of patients with HIV infection, allowing them to live longer with this chronic medical condition and consequently experiencing conditions such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Several studies have investigated the increased risk of CVD in people living with HIV (PLWH). However, less is known about the exact mechanisms involved in this increased risk. Also, specific guidelines for management of CVD in PLWH have not been developed yet. In this article, we review the recent literature on the mechanisms involved in pathogenesis of CVD in PLWH, with an emphasis on coronary artery disease (CAD). RECENT FINDINGS: Although initial studies suspected the increased prevalence of traditional CVD risk factors and side effects of ART to be involved in the increased CVD risk in PLWH, recent studies have uncovered the important role of chronic persistent inflammation in this increased risk. In addition, biomarkers of inflammation have been associated with both CVD events and subclinical CAD in this population. Lastly, recent studies and ongoing clinical trials have been investigating medical interventions that aim to reduce inflammation and cardiovascular events. Different mechanisms of inflammation have been examined in PLWH, including subclinical viremia, microbial translocation, and coinfection with other pathogens such as cytomegalovirus. Although inflammatory biomarkers have been consistently associated with CVD and subclinical CVD outcomes, their prognostic value is unknown. Recent and ongoing trials are exploring the benefits of anti-inflammatory drugs, statins, and antimicrobial translocation drugs on both inflammation and CVD risk among PLWH.

HIV Infection and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases Beyond Coronary Artery Disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) increasingly afflicts people living with HIV (PLWH) in the contemporary era of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the most widely studied cardiovascular problem in PLWH; however, less is known about other clinically relevant subtypes of CVD such as heart failure (HF), cerebrovascular disease, sudden cardiac death, pericardial diseases, and pulmonary hypertension. This paper reviews evidence of other subtypes of CVD as emerging issues in the post-ART era. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies have shown that PLWH have higher risk of HF as well as subclinical impairment of left ventricular (LV) mechanics (systolic and diastolic dysfunction) and myocardial abnormalities (fibrosis and steatosis). The underlying mechanisms, however, are not well-understood. A few studies have also shown higher rates of atrial fibrillation and sudden cardiac death in PLWH. Ischemic stroke is the most common stroke type in the post-ART era, with underlying mechanisms like those identified in CAD: chronic inflammation and associated vasculopathy. Studies of great vessels (carotid artery and aorta) and peripheral arterial disease show heterogeneous results. Small subclinical pericardial effusions are common in PLWH in post-ART era. Pulmonary hypertension continues to be an underdiagnosed and potentially fatal complication of HIV infection. PLWH remain at higher risk for all types of CVD including heart failure, stroke, and arrhythmias in the post-ART era. Chronic inflammation may play an important role in this increased risk. More studies are needed to further elucidate the extent of non-coronary CVD in PLWH and the underlying mechanisms for them.

A cohort study protocol to analyze the predisposing factors to common chronic non-communicable diseases in rural areas: Fasa Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have become the main causes of morbidity and mortality even in rural areas of many developing countries, including Iran. In view of this increased risk, Fasa Cohort Study (FACS) has been established to assess the risk factors for NCDs with the ultimate goal of providing optimal risk calculators for Iranian population and finding grounds for interventions at the population level. METHODS: In a population-based cohort, at least 10,000 people within the age range of 35 to 70 years old from Sheshdeh, the suburb of Fasa city and its 24 satellite villages are being recruited. A detailed demographic, socioeconomic, anthropometric, nutrition, and medical history is obtained for each individual besides limited physical examinations and determination of physical activity and sleep patterns supplemented by body composition and electrocardiographic records. Routine laboratory assessments are done and a comprehensive biobank is compiled for future biological investigations. All data are stored online using a dedicated software. DISCUSSION: FACS enrolls the individuals from rural and little township areas to evaluate the health conditions and analyze the risk factors pertinent to major NCDs. This study will provide an evidence-based background for further national and international policies in preventive medicine. Yearly follow ups are designed to assess the health events in the participating population. It is believed that the results would construct a contemporary knowledge of Iranian high risk health characteristics and behaviors as well as the platform for further interventions of risk reduction in a typical Iranian population. Constantly probing for future advances in NCDs prevention and management, the accumulated database and biobank serves as a potential for state of the art research and international collaborations.

Serial measurement of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin T for cardiovascular disease risk assessment in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin T (TnT) predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in a variety of populations. Whether their predictive value varies by ethnicity is unknown. We sought to determine whether NT-proBNP and TnT improve prediction of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and CVD, independent of CVD risk factors, in a multiethnic population; whether NT-proBNP improves prediction compared with the Framingham Risk Score or the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation; and whether a second NT-proBNP further improves prediction. METHODS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT were measured in 5,592 MESA white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese participants (60% nonwhite; mean age 62.3 ± 10.3 years) in 2000 to 2002 and 2004 to 2005. We evaluated adjusted risk of incident CHD and CVD based on baseline and change in biomarker concentration. RESULTS: Participants were followed up through 2011 and incurred 370 CVD events (232 CHD). Concentrations of NT-proBNP and TnT varied by ethnicity. Both NT-proBNP and TnT were associated with an increased risk of events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for CHD [95% CI] for fifth quintile vs other 4 quintiles of NT-proBNP, 2.03 [1.50-2.76]; HR for CHD for detectable vs undetectable TnT, 3.95 [2.29-6.81]). N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide improved risk prediction and classification compared with the Framingham Risk Score and the Pooled Cohort Risk Equation. Change in NT-proBNP was independently associated with events (HR for CHD per unit increase in ΔlogNT-proBNP, 1.95 [1.16-3.26]). None of the observed associations varied by ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Both NT-proBNP and TnT are predictors of incident CHD, independent of established risk factors and ethnicity, in a multiethnic population without known CVD. Change in NT-proBNP may add additional prognostic information.

The bFGF Can Improve Angiogenesis in Oral Mucosa and Accelerate Wound Healing.

Background: The role of the basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) has well known in the angiogenesis and ulcer healing. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of bFGF on tissue repair in a rat oral mucosal wound. Methods: Musosal wound induced on the lip mucosa of rats and bFGF was injected along the edge of the mucosal defect immediately after surgery. The tissues were collected on days 3, 7 and 14 after the wound induction. The micro vessel density (MVD) and CD34 expression were done by histochemical studies. Results: The bFGF significantly accelerated granulation tissue formation and MVD was increased three days after ulcer induction but decreased 14 days after surgery. The MVD was significantly higher in the bFGF-treated group. The wound area was decreased in all groups time-dependently and a statistically significant difference (p value?) was observed between the bFGF-treated group and untreated group. The wound area was smaller in the bFGF-treated group compared to the untreated group. Conclusions: Our data demonstrated that bFGF can accelerated and facilitated wound healing.

Associations of cardiac injury biomarkers with risk of peripheral artery disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the associations of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels with risk of developing clinical peripheral artery disease (PAD) or a low ankle-brachial index (ABI). METHODS: Hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured in 6692 and 5458 participants respectively without baseline PAD between 2000 and 2002 in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. A significant number also had repeat biomarker measurement between 2004 and 2005. Incident clinical PAD was ascertained through 2017. Incident low ABI, defined as ABI <0.9 and decline of ≥0.15 from baseline, was assessed among 5920 eligible individuals who had an ABI >0.9 at baseline and at least one follow-up ABI measurement 3-10 years later. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression modeling were used to determine the association of these biomarkers with clinical PAD and low ABI, respectively. RESULTS: Overall, 121 clinical PAD and 118 low ABI events occurred. Adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, each log unit increment in hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP was associated with a 30% (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 1.6) and 50% (HR) 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8) higher risk of clinical PAD respectively. No significant associations were observed for incident low ABI. Change in these biomarkers was not associated with either of the PAD outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT are independently associated with the development of clinical PAD. Further study should determine whether these biomarkers can help to better identify those at higher risk for PAD.

Fibrinogen and left ventricular myocardial systolic function: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that elevated plasma fibrinogen is associated with incident heart failure. However, the underlying pathophysiological mechanisms have not been well elucidated. METHODS: We examined the relationship between plasma fibrinogen level and peak systolic midwall circumferential strain (Ecc) at the base, mid cavity, and apex of the left ventricle measured by magnetic resonance imaging myocardial tagging in 1096 participants without clinical cardiovascular disease enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). RESULTS: After adjustment for demographics, established risk factors and body mass index, elevated fibrinogen was independently associated with reductions in absolute Ecc indicative of impaired systolic function in all regions (all P < or = .015). The relationships were consistently significant upon further adjustment for measures of atherosclerosis (all P < .024) and were modestly attenuated with regional heterogeneity after additional adjustment for other inflammatory biomarker and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. In this fully-adjusted model, every 1-SD (74 mg/dL) increment in plasma fibrinogen was independently associated with a reduction in left ventricular absolute Ecc of 0.29% (95% CI 0.03%-0.59%, P = .048) at the base, 0.22% (95% CI 0.006%-0.43%, P = .044) at mid cavity, 0.20% (95% CI = -0.035% to 0.43%, P = .097) at the apex, and 0.24% (95% CI = 0.05%-0.43%, P = .015) overall. CONCLUSIONS: Among asymptomatic individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease, elevated fibrinogen is independently associated with impaired myocardial systolic function. These findings support roles of inflammation, procoagulation, and hyperviscosity underlying hyperfibrinogenemia in the pathogenesis of incipient myocardial dysfunction.

Change in NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) Level and Risk of Dementia in Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Cross-sectionally measured NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is related to incident dementia. However, data linking changes in NT-proBNP to risk of future dementia are lacking. We aimed to examine the association of change in NT-proBNP over 3.2 years with incident dementia. We included 4563 participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) prospective cohort who were free of cardiovascular disease at enrollment, had NT-proBNP level measured at MESA exams 1 (baseline, 2000-2002) and 3 (2004-2005), and had no diagnosis of dementia before exam 3. The association of change in NT-proBNP level between MESA exams 1 through 3 and all-cause hospitalized dementia (by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, codes) after MESA exam 3 (2004-2005) through 2015 was assessed using competing-risks Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. During 45 522 person-years of follow-up, 223 dementia cases were documented. Increase in log-NT-proBNP from MESA exams 1 through 3 was positively associated with incidence of dementia (multivariable hazard ratio, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.001-1.64]; P=0.049). An increase of at least 25% in NT-proBNP level from MESA exam 1 through 3 was associated with a 55% (P=0.02) increase in the risk of dementia in multivariable analysis. Addition of temporal NT-proBNP change to a model including risk factors and baseline NT-proBNP improved the prediction of dementia (Harrell C statistic from 0.85 to 0.87, P=0.049). Increase in NT-proBNP is independently associated with future all-cause hospitalized dementia and offers a moderately better predictive performance for risk of dementia compared with risk factors and baseline NT-proBNP. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

Coronary vessel wall evaluation by magnetic resonance imaging in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis: determinants of image quality.

OBJECTIVE: Coronary artery wall magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been developed to assess coronary lumen diameter and wall thickness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the physiological parameters that affect the measures of coronary wall thickness using black-blood MRI pulse sequences. METHODS: Eighty-seven participants (38 men and 49 women) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis were enrolled in the coronary artery wall MRI study. Cine 4-chamber imaging was used to determine the coronary artery rest period. Free-breathing whole-heart magnetic resonance angiography with motion adaptor navigator was performed to localize the coronary arteries in 64 participants. Cross-sectional free-breathing black-blood images were acquired using electrocardiogram-gated, turbo spin echo sequence. Imaging parameters were as follows: repetition time = 2 R-R intervals, time to echo = 33 milliseconds, echo train length = 13, bandwidth = 305 Hz/pixel, matrix = 416 x 416, field of view = 420 x 420 mm, and slice thickness = 4 to 5 mm. RESULTS: Imaging was completed in 215 (92%) of 234 coronary segments; 9 participants had incomplete scans. Mean age was 62.6 +/- 8.4 years (range, 45-81 years). Mean body mass index was 29.2 +/- 5.9 kg/m2. A higher proportion of images with quality of "good" was seen in the right coronary artery (40.5%) compared to the left main and left anterior descending coronary arteries (31.9% and 26.4%, respectively). There was a very good agreement between observers in the image quality scores (kappa = 0.79, P < 0.001). Lower heart rate, male sex, and longer coronary rest period were associated with higher image quality score (P < 0.05). Signal-to-noise ratio was higher in participants with Agatston calcium score of more than 10 in the right coronary and left main arteries (48.5 vs 69.7, P = 0.001; and 53.4 vs 61.6, P = 0.032, respectively). CONCLUSION: Improved depiction of the coronary artery wall with MRI is related to coronary rest period and atherosclerotic plaque burden as measured by calcium score and inversely related to heart rate. Because longer coronary artery rest periods are associated with improved image quality both for angiography with MRI and coronary artery wall imaging, heart rate-lowering methods in association with these techniques appear to be a logical application.

Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension Diet Concordance and Incident Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: In observational studies, the association between the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and incident heart failure has been inconsistent. It was hypothesized that higher DASH diet concordance has a protective effect on heart failure in a multi-ethnic cohort. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort includes men and women of multiple ethnicities who were aged 45-84 years and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. Participants were recruited between 2000 and 2002 from six U.S. communities and followed for incident cardiovascular health events through 2015 for the purpose of this data set. Diet was measured using food-frequency questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to investigate the associations of the DASH diet concordance with incident heart failure in 2017-2018. RESULTS: During a median 13 years of follow-up, 179 of 4,478 participants developed heart failure, corresponding to a rate of 3.4 per 1,000 person years. Heart failure incidence rates did not vary significantly by DASH quintile for the population as a whole. In participants younger than 75 years, highest DASH concordance was associated with a lower risk of incident heart failure compared with those in the lowest quintile (hazard ratio=0.4, 95% CI=0.2, 0.9 vs all participants hazard ratio=1.0, 95% CI=0.2, 0.9) after adjusting for demographics, energy consumption, and known cardiovascular confounders. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the hypothesis that DASH is beneficial in heart failure prevention within the individuals aged less than 75 years subgroup, an idea that to date was substantiated only by much smaller studies or in less diverse patient populations.

Relation of aortic wall thickness and distensibility to cardiovascular risk factors (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]).

To determine the relation between aortic wall thickness (WT) and aortic distensibility (AD) with traditional cardiovascular risk factors in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort, 1,053 participants in MESA who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging were consecutively selected for the measurement of aortic WT and AD. Double inversion-recovery fast spin-echo images of the thoracic aorta were obtained to measure average and maximum WT. AD was measured at the same level using a gradient-echo cine sequence. Average and maximum WT were positively correlated with increasing age, and AD was inversely related to age (p <0.01). Compared with normotensive participants, those with hypertension had significantly greater mean average WT (2.45 vs 2.23 mm, p <0.01) and maximum WT (3.61 vs 3.41 mm, p <0.01) and lower AD (0.15 vs 0.2 mm Hg(-1), p <0.01). In multiple regression analysis, older age and hypertension were significantly associated with higher mean average WT, while older age, male gender, and higher blood pressure were associated with higher mean maximum WT. AD was inversely related to older age, hypertension, current smoking, African American ethnicity, and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. In conclusion, in the MESA cohort, older age and higher blood pressure were associated with higher aortic WT and lower AD. Decreased AD was further associated with current smoking, African American ethnicity, and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level.

Drug Use for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases in Golestan, Iran: Results From the Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, using cardio-protective drugs, in the community-level, especially in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to assess main drug use and its predictors in Northeast of Iran. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis on the Golestan Cohort Study data (2004-2008) with 50 045 participants. We assessed drug use in those with a history of ischemic heart disease (IHD) or stroke, recorded by face-to-face interviews. We explored drug use predictors (i.e., age, gender, wealth, education, residency, smoking, body mass index, physical activity, hypertension, and diabetes) through multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 3371 (6.7%) participants (56.7 ± 9.0 years, 58.1% female) reported a history of IHD, stroke or both. Median duration since diagnosis was 3.14 years (IQR: 1.25-6.30). Rates of using anti-platelets, statins, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers, and beta-blockers were 28.8% (95% CI: 27.3-30.3), 5.4 (4.7-6.2), 15.7 (14.5-17.0), and 40.6 (38.9-42.3), respectively. About 43% (41 - 45) of patients did not use any protective drugs. Use of ≥ three drugs was only 7.3% (6.6-8.2). Indicators of ≥1 drug use were: older age (OR for ≥60 vs. <50: 1.37), high wealth score (fifth vs first quintile: 1.60), literacy (1.56), city dwelling (1.32), body mass index (<18.5 and ≥30 vs. 25-29: 0.55 and 1.25, respectively), physical activity (third vs. first tertile: 0.64), hypertension (3.47), and diabetes (1.29); (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Drug use after IHD or stroke is low in Northeast of Iran. Comprehensive efforts to promote secondary prevention are urgently needed.

Association Between Inflammatory Markers and Myocardial Fibrosis.

Inflammation promotes adverse ventricular remodeling. T1 mapping has been used to noninvasively assess interstitial myocardial fibrosis. We examined the association of baseline markers of systemic inflammation with interstitial myocardial fibrosis measured by extracellular volume fraction (ECV) and native T1 mapping at 10-year follow-up in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Seven hundred seventy-two participants had complete baseline data and underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. All analyses were stratified by sex. Multivariable linear regression models were constructed to assess the associations of baseline CRP (C-reactive protein), IL (interleukin)-6, and fibrinogen with native T1 time and ECV. Longer native T1 times and higher percentages of ECV represent increasing myocardial fibrosis. A 1-SD increment of log-transformed IL-6 levels was associated with 0.4% higher ECV in men (ß=0.4; P=0.05). CRP and fibrinogen were not associated to ECV. A 1-SD increment in the log-transformed CRP levels was associated with 4.9 ms higher native T1 (ß=4.9; P=0.03). In women, the inflammatory markers did not demonstrate association with native T1 nor ECV. Higher IL-6 and CRP levels are associated with increased interstitial myocardial fibrosis assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance in men. However, no inflammatory markers were associated to myocardial fibrosis in women.

Association of Cardiovascular Biomarkers With Incident Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Importance: Nearly half of all patients with heart failure have preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) as opposed to reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), yet associations of biomarkers with future heart failure subtype are incompletely understood. Objective: To evaluate the associations of 12 cardiovascular biomarkers with incident HFpEF vs HFrEF among adults from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study included 4 longitudinal community-based cohorts: the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1990; 1992-1993 for supplemental African-American cohort), the Framingham Heart Study (1995-1998), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2000-2002), and the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease study (1997-1998). Each cohort had prospective ascertainment of incident HFpEF and HFrEF. Data analysis was performed from June 25, 2015, to November 9, 2017. Exposures: The following biomarkers were examined: N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T or I, C-reactive protein (CRP), urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), renin to aldosterone ratio, D-dimer, fibrinogen, soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity, galectin-3, cystatin C, plasminogen activator inhibitor 1, and interleukin 6. Main Outcomes and Measures: Development of incident HFpEF and incident HFrEF. Results: Among the 22 756 participants in these 4 cohorts (12 087 women and 10 669 men; mean [SD] age, 60 [13] years) in the study, during a median follow-up of 12 years, 633 participants developed incident HFpEF, and 841 developed HFrEF. In models adjusted for clinical risk factors of heart failure, 2 biomarkers were significantly associated with incident HFpEF: UACR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.20-1.48; P < .001) and natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40; P < .001), with suggestive associations for high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19; P = .008), plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.03-1.45; P = .02), and fibrinogen (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.03-1.22; P = .01). By contrast, 6 biomarkers were associated with incident HFrEF: natriuretic peptides (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.68; P < .001), UACR (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11-1.32; P < .001), high-sensitivity troponin (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.46; P < .001), cystatin C (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.27; P < .001), D-dimer (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.35; P < .001), and CRP (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11-1.28; P < .001). When directly compared, natriuretic peptides, high-sensitivity troponin, and CRP were more strongly associated with HFrEF compared with HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance: Biomarkers of renal dysfunction, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation were associated with incident HFrEF. By contrast, only natriuretic peptides and UACR were associated with HFpEF. These findings highlight the need for future studies focused on identifying novel biomarkers of the risk of HFpEF.

Predictors and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction.

AIMS: While heart failure with preserved (HFpEF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well described, determinants and outcomes of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remain unclear. We sought to examine clinical and biochemical predictors of incident HFmrEF in the community. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from four community-based longitudinal cohorts, with ascertainment of new heart failure (HF) classified into HFmrEF [ejection fraction (EF) 41-49%], HFpEF (EF ≥50%), and HFrEF (EF ≤40%). Predictors of incident HF subtypes were assessed using multivariable Cox models. Among 28 820 participants free of HF followed for a median of 12 years, there were 200 new HFmrEF cases, compared with 811 HFpEF and 1048 HFrEF. Clinical predictors of HFmrEF included age, male sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and prior myocardial infarction (multivariable adjusted P ≤ 0.003 for all). Biomarkers that predicted HFmrEF included natriuretic peptides, cystatin-C, and high-sensitivity troponin (P ≤ 0.0004 for all). Natriuretic peptides were stronger predictors of HFrEF [hazard ratio (HR) 2.00 per 1 standard deviation increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.81-2.20] than of HFmrEF (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20-1.90, P = 0.01 for difference), and did not differ in their association with incident HFmrEF and HFpEF (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.41-1.73, P = 0.68 for difference). All-cause mortality following the onset of HFmrEF was worse than that of HFpEF (50 vs. 39 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.02), but comparable to that of HFrEF (46 events per 1000 person-years, P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We found overlap in predictors of incident HFmrEF with other HF subtypes. In contrast, mortality risk after HFmrEF was worse than HFpEF, and similar to HFrEF.

The value of Bayes theorem in the interpretation of subjective diagnostic findings: what can we learn from agreement studies?

The Bayes theorem is advocated as the appropriate measure for the weight of evidence in medical decision making. It is based on the calculation of posttest probability as a function of the accuracy of the test and pretest probability. Nevertheless, for subjective diagnostic findings, there might be substantial variability in the accuracy among human observers, making the point estimate of posttest probability imprecise. Although there is limited evidence regarding the actual variability of accuracy among observers for the majority of diagnostic findings, classical observer agreement studies provide us with an indirect estimate of such variability. The aim of this work was to explicate the relationship between observer disagreement and variability of posttest probability. Using a random effects signal detection model with 3 stochastic components (between subject, between observer, and residual variations), the authors modeled diagnostic tests with various characteristics and calculated the expected between-observer disagreement and 95% interval of the observers' posttest probability. For the majority of simulated conditions, variation in posttest probability was surprisingly high, even in the presence of substantial agreement. Although the model is based on parametric assumptions, these results are a clue to a source of inaccuracy in the calculation of posttest probability. Practitioners should be aware of such variation in their clinical practice, and diagnostic studies need to develop strategies to address this uncertainty.

Progression of Coronary Artery Calcium and Incident Heart Failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Although the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and future heart failure (HF) has been shown previously, the value of CAC progression in the prediction of HF has not been investigated. In this study, we investigated the association of CAC progression with subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a population-based study consisting of 6814 men and women aged 45 to 84, free of overt cardiovascular disease at enrollment, who were recruited from 4 ethnicities. We included 5644 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants who had baseline and follow-up cardiac computed tomography and were free of HF and coronary heart disease before the second cardiac computed tomography. Mean (±SD) age was 61.7±10.2 years and 47.2% were male. The Cox proportional hazard models and multivariable linear regression models were deployed to determine the association of CAC progression with incident HF and subclinical LV dysfunction, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 9.6 (interquartile range: 8.8-10.6) years, 182 participants developed incident HF. CAC progression of 10 units per year was associated with 3% of increased risk of HF independent of overt coronary heart disease (P=0.008). In 2818 participants with available cardiac magnetic resonance images, CAC progression was associated with increased LV end diastolic volume (ß=0.16; P=0.03) and LV end systolic volume (ß=0.12; P=0.006) after excluding participants with any coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: CAC progression was associated with incident HF and modestly increased LV end diastolic volume and LV end systolic volume at follow-up exam independent of overt coronary heart disease.

Differences in Natriuretic Peptide Levels by Race/Ethnicity (From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

Natriuretic peptides (NP) are cardiac-derived hormones with favorable cardiometabolic actions. Low NP levels are associated with increased risks of hypertension and diabetes mellitus, conditions with variable prevalence by race and ethnicity. Heritable factors underlie a significant proportion of the interindividual variation in NP concentrations, but the specific influences of race and ancestry are unknown. In 5597 individuals (40% white, 24% black, 23% Hispanic, and 13% Chinese) without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, multivariable linear regression and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate differences in serum N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels according to, ethnicity, and ancestry. Ancestry was determined using genetic ancestry informative markers. NT-proBNP concentrations differed significantly by race and ethnicity (black, median 43 pg/ml [interquartile range 17 to 94], Chinese 43 [17 to 90], Hispanic 53 [23 to 107], white 68 [34 to 136]; p = 0.0001). In multivariable models, NT-proBNP was 44% lower (95% confidence interval -48 to -40) in black and 46% lower (-50 to -41) in Chinese, compared with white individuals. Hispanic individuals had intermediate concentrations. Self-identified blacks and Hispanics were the most genetically admixed. Among self-identified black individuals, a 20% increase in genetic European ancestry was associated with 12% higher (1% to 23%) NT-proBNP. Among Hispanic individuals, genetic European and African ancestry were positively and negatively associated with NT-proBNP levels, respectively. In conclusion, NT-proBNP levels differ according to race and ethnicity, with the lowest concentrations in black and Chinese individuals. Racial and ethnic differences in NT-proBNP may have a genetic basis, with European and African ancestry associated with higher and lower NT-proBNP concentrations, respectively.