SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses.

On 24th November 2021, the sequence of a new SARS-CoV-2 viral isolate Omicron-B.1.1.529 was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titers of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic Alpha, Beta, Gamma, or Delta are substantially reduced, or the sera failed to neutralize. Titers against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in both vaccinated individuals and those infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of the large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses and uses mutations that confer tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape. This leads to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site and rebalances receptor affinity to that of earlier pandemic viruses.

Reduced neutralization of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617 by vaccine and convalescent serum.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has undergone progressive change, with variants conferring advantage rapidly becoming dominant lineages, e.g., B.1.617. With apparent increased transmissibility, variant B.1.617.2 has contributed to the current wave of infection ravaging the Indian subcontinent and has been designated a variant of concern in the United Kingdom. Here we study the ability of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent and vaccine sera to neutralize B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2, complement this with structural analyses of Fab/receptor binding domain (RBD) complexes, and map the antigenic space of current variants. Neutralization of both viruses is reduced compared with ancestral Wuhan-related strains, but there is no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with B.1.351. However, B.1.351 and P.1 sera showed markedly more reduction in neutralization of B.1.617.2, suggesting that individuals infected previously by these variants may be more susceptible to reinfection by B.1.617.2. This observation provides important new insights for immunization policy with future variant vaccines in non-immune populations.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Replication Persists in the Human Lung for Several Weeks after Symptom Onset.

Rationale: In the upper respiratory tract, replicating (culturable) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is recoverable for ∼4-8 days after symptom onset, but there is a paucity of data about the frequency and duration of replicating virus in the lower respiratory tract (i.e., the human lung).Objectives: We undertook lung tissue sampling (needle biopsy) shortly after death in 42 mechanically ventilated decedents during the Beta and Delta waves. An independent group of 18 ambulatory patients served as a control group.Methods: Lung biopsy cores from decedents underwent viral culture, histopathological analysis, electron microscopy, transcriptomic profiling, and immunohistochemistry.Measurements and Main Results: Thirty-eight percent (16 of 42) of mechanically ventilated decedents had culturable virus in the lung for a median of 15 days (persisting for up to 4 wk) after symptom onset. Lung viral culture positivity was not associated with comorbidities or steroid use. Delta but not Beta variant lung culture positivity was associated with accelerated death and secondary bacterial infection (P < 0.05). Nasopharyngeal culture was negative in 23.1% (6 of 26) of decedents despite lung culture positivity. This hitherto undescribed biophenotype of lung-specific persisting viral replication was associated with an enhanced transcriptomic pulmonary proinflammatory response but with concurrent viral culture positivity.Conclusions: Concurrent rather than sequential active viral replication continues to drive a heightened proinflammatory response in the human lung beyond the second week of illness and was associated with variant-specific increased mortality and morbidity. These findings have potential implications for the design of interventional strategies and clinical management of patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the safety and efficacy of vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in different populations is essential, as is investigation of the efficacy of the vaccines against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the B.1.351 (501Y.V2) variant first identified in South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial to assess the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) in people not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa. Participants 18 to less than 65 years of age were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of vaccine containing 5×1010 viral particles or placebo (0.9% sodium chloride solution) 21 to 35 days apart. Serum samples obtained from 25 participants after the second dose were tested by pseudovirus and live-virus neutralization assays against the original D614G virus and the B.1.351 variant. The primary end points were safety and efficacy of the vaccine against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic coronavirus 2019 illness (Covid-19) more than 14 days after the second dose. RESULTS: Between June 24 and November 9, 2020, we enrolled 2026 HIV-negative adults (median age, 30 years); 1010 and 1011 participants received at least one dose of placebo or vaccine, respectively. Both the pseudovirus and the live-virus neutralization assays showed greater resistance to the B.1.351 variant in serum samples obtained from vaccine recipients than in samples from placebo recipients. In the primary end-point analysis, mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 23 of 717 placebo recipients (3.2%) and in 19 of 750 vaccine recipients (2.5%), for an efficacy of 21.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], -49.9 to 59.8). Among the 42 participants with Covid-19, 39 cases (95.1% of 41 with sequencing data) were caused by the B.1.351 variant; vaccine efficacy against this variant, analyzed as a secondary end point, was 10.4% (95% CI, -76.8 to 54.8). The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the vaccine and placebo groups. CONCLUSIONS: A two-dose regimen of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine did not show protection against mild-to-moderate Covid-19 due to the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04444674; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry number, PACTR202006922165132).

Efficacy of NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 Vaccine against the B.1.351 Variant.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants threatens progress toward control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. In a phase 1-2 trial involving healthy adults, the NVX-CoV2373 nanoparticle vaccine had an acceptable safety profile and was associated with strong neutralizing-antibody and antigen-specific polyfunctional CD4+ T-cell responses. Evaluation of vaccine efficacy was needed in a setting of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: In this phase 2a-b trial in South Africa, we randomly assigned human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative adults between the ages of 18 and 84 years or medically stable HIV-positive participants between the ages of 18 and 64 years in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of either the NVX-CoV2373 vaccine (5 µg of recombinant spike protein with 50 µg of Matrix-M1 adjuvant) or placebo. The primary end points were safety and vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed symptomatic Covid-19 at 7 days or more after the second dose among participants without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Of 6324 participants who underwent screening, 4387 received at least one injection of vaccine or placebo. Approximately 30% of the participants were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline. Among 2684 baseline seronegative participants (94% HIV-negative and 6% HIV-positive), predominantly mild-to-moderate Covid-19 developed in 15 participants in the vaccine group and in 29 in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy, 49.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.1 to 72.8). Vaccine efficacy among HIV-negative participants was 60.1% (95% CI, 19.9 to 80.1). Of 41 sequenced isolates, 38 (92.7%) were the B.1.351 variant. Post hoc vaccine efficacy against B.1.351 was 51.0% (95% CI, -0.6 to 76.2) among the HIV-negative participants. Preliminary local and systemic reactogenicity events were more common in the vaccine group; serious adverse events were rare in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The NVX-CoV2373 vaccine was efficacious in preventing Covid-19, with higher vaccine efficacy observed among HIV-negative participants. Most infections were caused by the B.1.351 variant. (Funded by Novavax and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04533399.).

Single-dose administration and the influence of the timing of the booster dose on immunogenicity and efficacy of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine: a pooled analysis of four randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, with a regimen of two standard doses given with an interval of 4-12 weeks. The planned roll-out in the UK will involve vaccinating people in high-risk categories with their first dose immediately, and delivering the second dose 12 weeks later. Here, we provide both a further prespecified pooled analysis of trials of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and exploratory analyses of the impact on immunogenicity and efficacy of extending the interval between priming and booster doses. In addition, we show the immunogenicity and protection afforded by the first dose, before a booster dose has been offered. METHODS: We present data from three single-blind randomised controlled trials-one phase 1/2 study in the UK (COV001), one phase 2/3 study in the UK (COV002), and a phase 3 study in Brazil (COV003)-and one double-blind phase 1/2 study in South Africa (COV005). As previously described, individuals 18 years and older were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive two standard doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (5 × 1010 viral particles) or a control vaccine or saline placebo. In the UK trial, a subset of participants received a lower dose (2·2 × 1010 viral particles) of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 for the first dose. The primary outcome was virologically confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 disease, defined as a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT)-positive swab combined with at least one qualifying symptom (fever ≥37·8°C, cough, shortness of breath, or anosmia or ageusia) more than 14 days after the second dose. Secondary efficacy analyses included cases occuring at least 22 days after the first dose. Antibody responses measured by immunoassay and by pseudovirus neutralisation were exploratory outcomes. All cases of COVID-19 with a NAAT-positive swab were adjudicated for inclusion in the analysis by a masked independent endpoint review committee. The primary analysis included all participants who were SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative at baseline, had had at least 14 days of follow-up after the second dose, and had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection from NAAT swabs. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose. The four trials are registered at ISRCTN89951424 (COV003) and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606 (COV001), NCT04400838 (COV002), and NCT04444674 (COV005). FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Dec 6, 2020, 24 422 participants were recruited and vaccinated across the four studies, of whom 17 178 were included in the primary analysis (8597 receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 8581 receiving control vaccine). The data cutoff for these analyses was Dec 7, 2020. 332 NAAT-positive infections met the primary endpoint of symptomatic infection more than 14 days after the second dose. Overall vaccine efficacy more than 14 days after the second dose was 66·7% (95% CI 57·4-74·0), with 84 (1·0%) cases in the 8597 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 248 (2·9%) in the 8581 participants in the control group. There were no hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group after the initial 21-day exclusion period, and 15 in the control group. 108 (0·9%) of 12 282 participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 127 (1·1%) of 11 962 participants in the control group had serious adverse events. There were seven deaths considered unrelated to vaccination (two in the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 group and five in the control group), including one COVID-19-related death in one participant in the control group. Exploratory analyses showed that vaccine efficacy after a single standard dose of vaccine from day 22 to day 90 after vaccination was 76·0% (59·3-85·9). Our modelling analysis indicated that protection did not wane during this initial 3-month period. Similarly, antibody levels were maintained during this period with minimal waning by day 90 (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 0·66 [95% CI 0·59-0·74]). In the participants who received two standard doses, after the second dose, efficacy was higher in those with a longer prime-boost interval (vaccine efficacy 81·3% [95% CI 60·3-91·2] at ≥12 weeks) than in those with a short interval (vaccine efficacy 55·1% [33·0-69·9] at <6 weeks). These observations are supported by immunogenicity data that showed binding antibody responses more than two-fold higher after an interval of 12 or more weeks compared with an interval of less than 6 weeks in those who were aged 18-55 years (GMR 2·32 [2·01-2·68]). INTERPRETATION: The results of this primary analysis of two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 were consistent with those seen in the interim analysis of the trials and confirm that the vaccine is efficacious, with results varying by dose interval in exploratory analyses. A 3-month dose interval might have advantages over a programme with a short dose interval for roll-out of a pandemic vaccine to protect the largest number of individuals in the population as early as possible when supplies are scarce, while also improving protection after receiving a second dose. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR), The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, the Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca.

Active Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Pregnancy Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection during pregnancy has been associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. There is, however, not much information on the impact of the timing of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes, and studies from low-middle income settings are also scarce. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional study from April to December 2020, in South Africa, to assess the association of SARS-CoV-2 infection on a nasal swab at the time of labor with fetal death, preterm birth, low birth weight, or pregnancy-induced complications. When possible, maternal blood, cord blood, and placenta were collected. SARS-CoV-2 infection was investigated by a nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT). RESULTS: Overall, 3,117 women were tested for SARS-CoV-2 on a nasal swab, including 1,562 (50%) healthy women with uncomplicated term delivery. A positive NAAT was detected among 132 (4%) women. Adverse birth outcomes or pregnancy-related complications were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of labor. Among SARS-CoV-2-infected women, an NAAT-positive result was also obtained from 6 out of 98 (6%) maternal blood samples, 8 out of 93 (9%) cord-blood samples, 14 out of 54 (26%) placentas, and 3 out of 22 (14%) nasopharyngeal swabs from newborns collected within 72 hours of birth. Histological assessment of placental tissue revealed that women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds (3.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 12.19) of chronic chorioamnionitis compared with those without SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that intrapartum, SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes. In utero fetal and placental infections and possible vertical and/or horizontal viral transfer to the newborn were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection. KEY POINTS: · Intrapartum SARS-CoV-2 infection was not associated with evaluated poor outcomes.. · In utero fetal and placental infections were detected among women with nasal SARS-CoV-2 infection.. · Women with SARS-CoV-2 nasal infection had a higher odds of chronic chorioamnionitis..

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection Among Healthcare Workers in South Africa: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

From April to September 2020, we investigated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in a cohort of 396 healthcare workers (HCWs) from 5 departments at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa. Overall, 34.6% of HCWs had polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (132.1 [95% confidence interval, 111.8-156.2] infections per 1000 person-months); an additional 27 infections were identified by serology. HCWs in the internal medicine department had the highest rate of infection (61.7%). Among polymerase chain reaction-confirmed cases, 10.4% remained asymptomatic, 30.4% were presymptomatic, and 59.3% were symptomatic.

Deaths Attributed to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in High-Mortality Rate Settings: Report from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS).

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged <5 years in high-mortality rate settings, using postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling and other advanced diagnostic techniques. We examined findings for deaths identified in CHAMPS sites in 7 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to evaluate the role of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). METHODS: We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies. RESULTS: We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged <28 days), 283 in infants (28 days to <12 months), and 235 in children (12-59 months). RSV was detected in postmortem specimens in 67 of 1213 deaths (5.5%); in 24 deaths (2.0% of total), RSV was determined to be a cause of death, and it contributed to 5 other deaths. Younger infants (28 days to <6 months of age) accounted for half of all deaths attributed to RSV; 6.5% of all deaths in younger infants were attributed to RSV. RSV was the underlying and only cause in 4 deaths; the remainder (n = 20) had a median of 2 (range, 1-5) other conditions in the causal chain. Birth defects (n = 8) and infections with other pathogens (n = 17) were common comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high-mortality rate settings.

The Etiology of Pneumonia From Analysis of Lung Aspirate and Pleural Fluid Samples: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

BACKGROUND: An improved understanding of childhood pneumonia etiology is required to inform prevention and treatment strategies. Lung aspiration is the gold standard specimen for pneumonia diagnostics. We report findings from analyses of lung and pleural aspirates collected in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study. METHODS: The PERCH study enrolled children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. Percutaneous transthoracic lung aspiration (LA) and pleural fluid (PF) aspiration was performed on a sample of pneumonia cases with radiological consolidation and/or PF in 4 countries. Venous blood and nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected from all cases. Multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and routine microbiologic culture were applied to clinical specimens. RESULTS: Of 44 LAs performed within 3 days of admission on 622 eligible cases, 13 (30%) had a pathogen identified by either culture (5/44) or by PCR (11/29). A pathogen was identified in 12/14 (86%) PF specimens tested by either culture (9/14) or PCR (9/11). Bacterial pathogens were identified more frequently than viruses. All but 1 of the cases with a virus identified were coinfected with bacterial pathogens. Streptococcus pneumoniae (9/44 [20%]) and Staphylococcus aureus (7/14 [50%]) were the predominant pathogens identified in LA and PF, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial pathogens predominated in this selected subgroup of PERCH participants drawn from those with radiological consolidation or PF, with S. pneumoniae and S. aureus the leading pathogens identified.

Postmortem investigations and identification of multiple causes of child deaths: An analysis of findings from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network.

BACKGROUND: The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child <5 years deaths for which results from Determination of Cause of Death (DeCoDe) panels were complete. DeCoDe panelists included all conditions in the causal chain according to the ICD-10 guidelines and assessed if prevention or effective management of the condition would have prevented the death. We analyzed the distribution of all conditions listed as causal, including underlying, antecedent, and immediate causes of death. Among 1,232 deaths with an underlying condition determined, we found a range of 0 to 6 (mean 1.5, IQR 0 to 2) additional conditions in the causal chain leading to death. While pathology provides very helpful clues, we cannot always be certain that conditions identified led to death or occurred in an agonal stage of death. For neonates, preterm birth complications (most commonly respiratory distress syndrome) were the most common underlying condition (n = 282, 38%); among those with preterm birth complications, 256 (91%) had additional conditions in causal chains, including 184 (65%) with a different preterm birth complication, 128 (45%) with neonatal sepsis, 69 (24%) with lower respiratory infection (LRI), 60 (21%) with meningitis, and 25 (9%) with perinatal asphyxia/hypoxia. Of the 278 infant deaths, 212 (79%) had ≥1 additional cause of death (CoD) beyond the underlying cause. The 2 most common underlying conditions in infants were malnutrition and congenital birth defects; LRI and sepsis were the most common additional conditions in causal chains, each accounting for approximately half of deaths with either underlying condition. Of the 241 child deaths, 178 (75%) had ≥1 additional condition. Among 46 child deaths with malnutrition as the underlying condition, all had ≥1 other condition in the causal chain, most commonly sepsis, followed by LRI, malaria, and diarrheal disease. Including all positions in the causal chain for neonatal deaths resulted in 19-fold and 11-fold increases in attributable roles for meningitis and LRI, respectively. For infant deaths, the proportion caused by meningitis and sepsis increased by 16-fold and 11-fold, respectively; for child deaths, sepsis and LRI are increased 12-fold and 10-fold, respectively. While comprehensive CoD determinations were done for a substantial number of deaths, there is potential for bias regarding which deaths in surveillance areas underwent minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), potentially reducing representativeness of findings. CONCLUSIONS: Including conditions that appear anywhere in the causal chain, rather than considering underlying condition alone, markedly changed the proportion of deaths attributed to various diagnoses, especially LRI, sepsis, and meningitis. While CHAMPS methods cannot determine when 2 conditions cause death independently or may be synergistic, our findings suggest that considering the chain of events leading to death can better guide research and prevention priorities aimed at reducing child deaths.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Unraveling Specific Causes of Neonatal Mortality Using Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Postmortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a potential alternative to the gold standard complete diagnostic autopsy for identifying specific causes of childhood deaths. We investigated the utility of MITS, interpreted with available clinical data, for attributing underlying and immediate causes of neonatal deaths. METHODS: This prospective, observational pilot study enrolled neonatal deaths at Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital in Soweto, South Africa. The MITS included needle core-biopsy sampling for histopathology of brain, lung, and liver tissue. Microbiological culture and/or molecular tests were performed on lung, liver, blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and stool samples. The "underlying" and "immediate" causes of death (CoD) were determined for each case by an international panel of 12-15 medical specialists. RESULTS: We enrolled 153 neonatal deaths, 106 aged 3-28 days. Leading underlying CoD included "complications of prematurity" (52.9%), "complications of intrapartum events" (15.0%), "congenital malformations" (13.1%), and "infection related" (9.8%). Overall, infections were the immediate or underlying CoD in 57.5% (n = 88) of all neonatal deaths, including the immediate CoD in 70.4% (58/81) of neonates with "complications of prematurity" as the underlying cause. Overall, 74.4% of 90 infection-related deaths were hospital acquired, mainly due to multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (52.2%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (22.4%), and Staphylococcus aureus (20.9%). Streptococcus agalactiae was the most common pathogen (5/15 [33.3%]) among deaths with "infections" as the underlying cause. CONCLUSIONS: MITS has potential to address the knowledge gap on specific causes of neonatal mortality. In our setting, this included the hitherto underrecognized dominant role of hospital-acquired multidrug-resistant bacterial infections as the leading immediate cause of neonatal deaths.

Potential of Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling for Attributing Specific Causes of Childhood Deaths in South Africa: A Pilot, Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates for causes of childhood deaths are mainly premised on modeling of vital registration and limited verbal autopsy data and generally only characterize the underlying cause of death (CoD). We investigated the potential of minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) for ascertaining the underlying and immediate CoD in children 1 month to 14 years of age. METHODS: MITS included postmortem tissue biopsies of brain, liver, and lung for histopathology examination; microbial culture of blood, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), liver, and lung samples; and molecular microbial testing on blood, CSF, lung, and rectal swabs. Each case was individually adjudicated for underlying, antecedent, and immediate CoD by an international multidisciplinary team of medical experts and coded using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). RESULTS: An underlying CoD was determined for 99% of 127 cases, leading causes being congenital malformations (18.9%), complications of prematurity (14.2%), human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS (12.6%), diarrheal disease (8.7%), acute respiratory infections (7.9%), injuries (7.9%), and malignancies (7.1%). The main immediate CoD was pneumonia, sepsis, and diarrhea in 33.9%, 19.7%, and 10.2% of cases, respectively. Infection-related deaths were either an underlying or immediate CoD in 78.0% of cases. Community-acquired pneumonia deaths (n = 32) were attributed to respiratory syncytial virus (21.9%), Pneumocystis jirovecii (18.8%), cytomegalovirus (15.6%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (15.6%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (12.5%). Seventy-one percent of 24 sepsis deaths were hospital-acquired, mainly due to Acinetobacter baumannii (47.1%) and K. pneumoniae (35.3%). Sixty-two percent of cases were malnourished. CONCLUSIONS: MITS, coupled with antemortem clinical information, provides detailed insight into causes of childhood deaths that could be informative for prioritization of strategies aimed at reducing under-5 mortality.

An Observational Pilot Study Evaluating the Utility of Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling to Determine the Cause of Stillbirths in South African Women.

BACKGROUND: Despite approximately 2.6 million stillbirths occurring annually, there is a paucity of systematic biological investigation and consequently knowledge on the causes of these deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We investigated the utility of minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), placental examination, and clinical history, in attributing the causes of stillbirth in a South African LMIC setting. METHODS: This prospective, observational pilot study undertook sampling of brain, lung, and liver tissue using core biopsy needles, blood and cerebrospinal fluid collection, and placental examination. Testing included microbial culture and/or molecular testing and tissue histological examination. The cause of death was determined for each case by an international panel of medical specialists and categorized using the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision application to perinatal deaths. RESULTS: A cause of stillbirth was identifiable for 117 of 129 (90.7%) stillbirths, including an underlying maternal cause in 63.4% (n = 83) and an immediate fetal cause in 79.1% (n = 102) of cases. The leading underlying causes of stillbirth were maternal hypertensive disorders (16.3%), placental separation and hemorrhage (14.0%), and chorioamnionitis (10.9%). The leading immediate causes of fetal death were antepartum hypoxia (35.7%) and fetal infection (37.2%), including due to Escherichia coli (16.3%), Enterococcus species (3.9%), and group B Streptococcus (3.1%). CONCLUSIONS: In this pilot, proof-of-concept study, focused investigation of stillbirth provided granular detail on the causes thereof in an LMIC setting, including provisionally highlighting the largely underrecognized role of fetal sepsis as a dominant cause.

Molecular Subtyping of Human Rhinovirus in Children from Three Sub-Saharan African Countries.

The pathogenesis of human rhinovirus (HRV) during severe respiratory disease remains undefined; thus, we aimed to explore the relationship between the HRV molecular subtyping results obtained during severe and asymptomatic childhood infections. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs from children (1 to 59 months of age) hospitalized with pneumonia and from age-frequency-matched controls were collected between August 2011 and August 2013. Swabs were tested for respiratory pathogens, including HRV, using quantitative real-time PCR assays. HRV-positive samples were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis by targeting the 5' noncoding region (5'NCR). Our data showed that there were no differences in the prevalence of HRV detection among cases and controls (21% versus 20%, P = 0.693); however, among children 13 to 59 months old, HRV detection was more often case associated (21% versus 16%; P = 0.009), with the results mainly driven by HRV-C (12% versus 7%; P = 0.001). Overall, there were no differences in the results of molecular subtyping of the HRV species prevalence among cases (for HRV-A, 48%; for HRV-B, 7%; for HRV-C, 45%) and controls (for HRV-A, 45%; for HRV-B, 10%; for HRV-C, 45% [P = 0.496]). Those with pneumonia and HRV-C were older (12.1 versus 9.4 months, P = 0.033) and more likely to present with wheeze (35% versus 25%, P = 0.031) than those with HRV-A cases. Thus, the rate of HRV detection was high, with similar degrees of genetic diversity among cases and controls, confounding the interpretation of the presence of HRV in nasopharyngeal samples for attribution of a causal role in the pathogenesis of severe pneumonia in infants. However, among children 13 to 59 months of age, HRV detection, in particular, HRV-C detection, was associated with case status, especially among children with wheezing disease.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. METHODS: We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. FINDINGS: We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. INTERPRETATION: Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Incremental Value of Repeated Induced Sputum and Gastric Aspirate Samples for the Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Young Children With Acute Community-Acquired Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND.: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) contributes to the pathogenesis of childhood acute community-acquired pneumonia in settings with a high tuberculosis burden. The incremental value of a repeated induced sputum (IS) sample, compared with a single IS or gastric aspirate (GA) sample, is not well known. METHODS.: Two IS samples were obtained for Mtb culture from children enrolled as cases in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study in South Africa. Nonstudy attending physicians requested GA if pulmonary tuberculosis was clinically suspected. We compared the Mtb yield of 2 IS samples to that of 1 IS sample and GA samples. RESULTS: . Twenty-seven (3.0%) culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases were identified among 906 children investigated with IS and GA samples for Mtb. Results from 2 IS samples were available for 719 children (79.4%). Of 12 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases identified among children with ≥2 IS samples, 4 (33.3%) were negative at the first IS sample. In head-to-head comparisons among children with both GA and IS samples collected, the yield of 1 GA sample (8 of 427; 1.9%) was similar to that of 1 IS sample (5 of 427, 1.2%), and the yield of 2 GA samples (10 of 300; 3.3%) was similar to that of 2 IS samples (5 of 300; 1.7%). IS samples identified 8 (42.1%) of the 19 culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis cases that were identified through submission of IS and GA samples. CONCLUSIONS.: A single IS sample underestimated the presence of Mtb in children hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia. Detection of Mtb is enhanced by combining 2 IS with GA sample collections in young children with acute severe pneumonia.

Standardization of Laboratory Methods for the PERCH Study.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health study was conducted across 7 diverse research sites and relied on standardized clinical and laboratory methods for the accurate and meaningful interpretation of pneumonia etiology data. Blood, respiratory specimens, and urine were collected from children aged 1-59 months hospitalized with severe or very severe pneumonia and community controls of the same age without severe pneumonia and were tested with an extensive array of laboratory diagnostic tests. A standardized testing algorithm and standard operating procedures were applied across all study sites. Site laboratories received uniform training, equipment, and reagents for core testing methods. Standardization was further assured by routine teleconferences, in-person meetings, site monitoring visits, and internal and external quality assurance testing. Targeted confirmatory testing and testing by specialized assays were done at a central reference laboratory.