Prospective Association of Daily Steps With Cardiovascular Disease: A Harmonized Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Taking fewer than the widely promoted "10 000 steps per day" has recently been associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. The relationship of steps and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly described. A meta-analysis examining the dose-response relationship between steps per day and CVD can help inform clinical and public health guidelines. METHODS: Eight prospective studies (20 152 adults [ie, ≥18 years of age]) were included with device-measured steps and participants followed for CVD events. Studies quantified steps per day and CVD events were defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were completed using study-specific quartiles and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were meta-analyzed with inverse-variance-weighted random effects models. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 63.2±12.4 years and 52% were women. The mean follow-up was 6.2 years (123 209 person-years), with a total of 1523 CVD events (12.4 per 1000 participant-years) reported. There was a significant difference in the association of steps per day and CVD between older (ie, ≥60 years of age) and younger adults (ie, <60 years of age). For older adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93), 0.62 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74), and 0.51 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.63) compared with the lowest quartile. For younger adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.35), 0.90 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.25), and 0.95 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.61 to 1.48) compared with the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a nonlinear association whereby more steps were associated with decreased risk of CVD among older adults. CONCLUSIONS: For older adults, taking more daily steps was associated with a progressively decreased risk of CVD. Monitoring and promoting steps per day is a simple metric for clinician-patient communication and population health to reduce the risk of CVD.

Safety and effectiveness of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and risk factors for hospitalisation caused by the omicron variant in 0.8 million adolescents: A nationwide cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Real-world evidence on the safety and effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination against severe disease caused by the omicron variant among adolescents is sparse. In addition, evidence on risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease, and whether vaccination is similarly effective in such risk groups, is unclear. The aim of the present study was therefore to examine the safety and effectiveness of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccination against COVID-19 hospitalisation, and risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalisation in adolescents. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cohort study was conducted using Swedish nationwide registers. The safety analysis included all individuals in Sweden born between 2003 and 2009 (aged 11.3 to 19.2 years) given at least 1 dose of monovalent mRNA vaccine (N = 645,355), and never vaccinated controls (N = 186,918). The outcomes included all-cause hospitalisation and 30 selected diagnoses until 5 June 2022. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation, and risk factors for hospitalisation, were evaluated in adolescents given 2 doses of monovalent mRNA vaccine (N = 501,945), as compared to never vaccinated controls (N = 157,979), for up to 5 months follow-up during an omicron predominant period (1 January 2022 to 5 June 2022). Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, baseline date, and whether the individual was born in Sweden. The safety analysis showed that vaccination was associated with 16% lower (95% confidence interval (CI) [12, 19], p < 0.001) risk of all-cause hospitalisation, and with marginal differences between the groups regarding the 30 selected diagnoses. In the VE analysis, there were 21 cases (0.004%) of COVID-19 hospitalisation among 2-dose recipients and 26 cases (0.016%) among controls, resulting in a VE of 76% (95% CI [57, 87], p < 0.001). Predominant risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalisation included previous infections (bacterial infection, tonsillitis, and pneumonia) (odds ratio [OR]: 14.3, 95% CI [7.7, 26.6], p < 0.001), and cerebral palsy/development disorders (OR: 12.7, 95% CI [6.8, 23.8], p < 0.001), with similar estimates of VE in these subgroups as in the total cohort. The number needed to vaccinate with 2 doses to prevent 1 case of COVID-19 hospitalisation was 8,147 in the total cohort and 1,007 in those with previous infections or developmental disorders. None of the individuals hospitalised due to COVID-19 died within 30 days. Limitations of this study include the observational design and the possibility of unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide study of Swedish adolescents, monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccination was not associated with an increased risk of any serious adverse events resulting in hospitalisation. Vaccination with 2 doses was associated with a lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation during an omicron predominant period, also among those with certain predisposing conditions who should be prioritised for vaccination. However, COVID-19 hospitalisation in the general population of adolescents was extremely rare, and additional doses in this population may not be warranted at this stage.

Risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death up to 9 months after a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 beyond 6 months remains incompletely understood. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against the risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death during the first 9 months after vaccination for the total population of Sweden. METHODS: This retrospective, total population cohort study was done using data from Swedish nationwide registers. The cohort comprised all individuals vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, mRNA-1273, or BNT162b2, and matched unvaccinated individuals, with data on vaccinations and infections updated until Oct 4, 2021. Two outcomes were evaluated. The first was SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity from Jan 12 to Oct 4, 2021. The second was severe COVID-19, defined as hospitalisation for COVID-19 or all-cause 30-day mortality after confirmed infection, from March 15 to Sept 28, 2021. FINDINGS: Between Dec 28, 2020, and Oct 4, 2021, 842 974 individuals were fully vaccinated (two doses), and were matched (1:1) to an equal number of unvaccinated individuals (total study cohort n=1 685 948). For the outcome SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity, the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 waned progressively over time, from 92% (95% CI 92 to 93; p<0·001) at 15-30 days, to 47% (39 to 55; p<0·001) at 121-180 days, and to 23% (-2 to 41; p=0·07) from day 211 onwards. Waning was slightly slower for mRNA-1273, with a vaccine effectiveness of 96% (94 to 97; p<0·001) at 15-30 days and 59% (18 to 79; p=0·012) from day 181 onwards. Waning was also slightly slower for heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 plus an mRNA vaccine, for which vaccine effectiveness was 89% (79 to 94; p<0·001) at 15-30 days and 66% (41 to 80; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. By contrast, vaccine effectiveness for homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine was 68% (52 to 79; p<0·001) at 15-30 days, with no detectable effectiveness from day 121 onwards (-19% [-98 to 28]; p=0·49). For the outcome of severe COVID-19, vaccine effectiveness waned from 89% (82 to 93; p<0·001) at 15-30 days to 64% (44 to 77; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. Overall, there was some evidence for lower vaccine effectiveness in men than in women and in older individuals than in younger individuals. INTERPRETATION: We found progressively waning vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity across all subgroups, but the rate of waning differed according to vaccine type. With respect to severe COVID-19, vaccine effectiveness seemed to be better maintained, although some waning became evident after 4 months. The results strengthen the evidence-based rationale for administration of a third vaccine dose as a booster. FUNDING: None.

Trends in Hip Fracture Incidence, Length of Hospital Stay, and 30-Day Mortality in Sweden from 1998-2017: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

In this nationwide cohort study, we investigated trends in hip fracture incidence, hospital length of stay (LOS), and 30-day mortality after admission in Sweden. The cohort included all individuals in Sweden aged ≥ 50 years with a first hip fracture diagnosis during 1998-2017 (N = 313,761). The outcomes were hip fracture incidence and 30-day mortality. The results showed that the incidence of hip fracture decreased from 79.2 to 46.7/10,000 population in women and from 35.7 to 26.5/10,000 population in men. In contrast, 30-day mortality increased from 4.3% to 6.2% in women (P < 0.001) and from 8.4% to 11.1% in men (P < 0.001). Strong risk factors (P < 1 × 10-25 for all) for 30-day mortality were older age, male sex, and shorter LOS. From 1998 to 2017, LOS decreased by on average 4 days and was shorter in both male and female aged ≥ 90 years compared to those aged 80-89 (P < 0.001 for comparisons). In conclusion, despite population aging, hip fracture incidence in Sweden has decreased over the last 20 years. However, short-term mortality has increased, which to some extent may partly be explained by the fact that LOS has decreased without being adapted to important risk factors.

Does exercise prevent major non-communicable diseases and premature mortality? A critical review based on results from randomized controlled trials.

Observational studies show that physical activity is strongly associated with a reduced risk of premature mortality and major non-communicable diseases. We reviewed to which extent these associations have been confirmed in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the outcomes of mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), and fracture. The results show that exercise does not reduce all-cause mortality and incident CVD in older adults or in people with chronic conditions, based on RCTs comprising ∼50,000 participants. The results also indicate a lack of effect on cardiovascular mortality in people with chronic conditions, based on RCTs comprising ∼11,000 participants. Furthermore, there is inconsistent evidence regarding the effect of exercise on fractures in older adults, based on RCTs comprising ∼40,000 participants. Finally, based on RCTs comprising ∼17,000 participants, exercise reduces T2D incidence in people with prediabetes when combined with dietary modification, although evidence for the individual effect of exercise is lacking. Identified shortcomings of the current evidence include risks of publication bias, lack of high-quality studies in certain high-risk populations, and inconstant evidence with respect to some outcomes. Thus, additional large trials would be of value, especially with fracture as the primary outcome. In conclusion, according to current RCT evidence, exercise can prevent T2D assuming it is combined with dietary intervention. However, the current evidence shows that exercise does not prevent premature mortality or CVD, with inconsistent evidence for fractures.

Risk factors for COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalization, and subsequent all-cause mortality in Sweden: a nationwide study.

We conducted a nationwide, registry-based study to investigate the importance of 34 potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis, hospitalization (with or without intensive care unit [ICU] admission), and subsequent all-cause mortality. The study population comprised all COVID-19 cases confirmed in Sweden by mid-September 2020 (68,575 non-hospitalized, 2494 ICU hospitalized, and 13,589 non-ICU hospitalized) and 434,081 randomly sampled general-population controls. Older age was the strongest risk factor for hospitalization, although the odds of ICU hospitalization decreased after 60-69 years and, after controlling for other risk factors, the odds of non-ICU hospitalization showed no trend after 40-49 years. Residence in a long-term care facility was associated with non-ICU hospitalization. Male sex and the presence of at least one investigated comorbidity or prescription medication were associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization. Three comorbidities associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization were asthma, hypertension, and Down syndrome. History of cancer was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization, but cancer in the past year was associated with non-ICU hospitalization, after controlling for other risk factors. Cardiovascular disease was weakly associated with non-ICU hospitalization for COVID-19, but not with ICU hospitalization, after adjustment for other risk factors. Excess mortality was observed in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized COVID-19 cases. These results confirm that severe COVID-19 is related to age, sex, and comorbidity in general. The study provides new evidence that hypertension, asthma, Down syndrome, and residence in a long-term care facility are associated with severe COVID-19.

Association of dog ownership with accelerometer-measured physical activity and daily steps in 70-year-old individuals: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Dog ownership (DO) has been associated with higher levels of self-reported walking and physical activity. However, compared to device-based measures, self-reported measures of physical activity may suffer from bias due to recall and social desirability. They are also incapable of quantifying light-intensity physical activity (LPA) and step volume, both of which may have important health benefits, especially for older adults. In this study, we investigated the association of DO with accelerometer-measured physical activity of different intensities and daily steps in 70-year-old individuals. METHODS: This was a population-based cross-sectional study including 1406 participants aged 70 years [54.1% female] who participated in a health survey in Umeå, Sweden between February 2017-November 2019. All participants self-reported DO [yes/no]. Daily averages of LPA, moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA), and steps per day [steps/d] were measured for 1 week using hip-mounted Actigraph GT3X+ accelerometers. Associations were investigated using linear- and logistic regression models, adjusted for sociodemographic and health-related factors, date of examination, and accelerometer wear time. RESULTS: The prevalence of DO was 14.1% [N = 199]. After adjustment for all covariates, DO was associated with 19.2 more minutes/d of LPA [95% CI, 8.8-29.6], 11.4 more minutes/d of MVPA [95% CI, 8.0-14.9] and 1738 more steps/d [95% CI, 1326-2149]. DO was also associated with twice the odds of meeting the physical activity recommendations [OR, 2.07, 95% CI, 1.48-2.90]. Exploratory interaction analyses showed that the association between DO and steps/d was stronger [Pinteraction = 0.030] in female [ß = 2165, 95% CI, 1585-2744] than in male [ß =1255, 95% CI, 664-1845], with a similar trend for MVPA [Pinteraction = 0.082]. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of community-dwelling 70-year-old individuals, DO was associated with higher levels of daily LPA, MVPA, and steps. With the limitation of the observational design of the study, these findings add knowledge regarding the beneficial role that DO may play for promoting physical activity in the older population. In turn, these findings could support the development and evaluation of targeted interventions seeking to promote dog-friendly environments and facilitate dog walking in the community.

Associations of Light, Moderate to Vigorous, and Total Physical Activity With the Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome in 4,652 Community-Dwelling 70-Year-Olds: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study.

In this cross-sectional study, the authors investigated the associations of objectively measured physical activity (PA) with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in older adults. Accelerometer-derived light-intensity PA, moderate to vigorous PA, and steps per day were measured in (N = 4,652) 70-year-olds in Umeå, Sweden, during May 2012-November 2019. The MetS was assessed according to the American Heart Association/ National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute criteria. The prevalence of MetS was 49.3%. Compared with the reference, the odds ratios for MetS in increasing quartiles of light-intensity PA were 0.91 (0.77-1.09), 0.75 (0.62-0.89), and 0.66 (0.54-0.80). For moderate to vigorous PA, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.79 (0.66-0.94), 0.67 (0.56-0.80), and 0.56 (0.46-0.67). For steps per day, the odds ratios were 0.65 (0.55-0.78), 0.55 (0.46-0.65), and 0.45 (0.36-0.55). In summary, this study shows that greater amounts of PA, regardless of intensity, are associated with lower odds of MetS. With the limitation of being an observational study, these findings may have implications for the prevention of MetS in older adults.

Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in Male Twins With Discordant Cardiorespiratory Fitness: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

Whether genetic and familial factors influence the association between cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unknown. Two cohorts were formed based on data from 1,212,295 men aged 18 years who were conscripted for military service in Sweden during 1972-1996. The first comprised 4,260 twin pairs in which the twins in each pair had different CRF (≥1 watt). The second comprised 90,331 nonsibling pairs with different CRF and matched on birth year and year of conscription. Incident CVD and all-cause mortality were identified using national registers. During follow-up (median 32 years), there was no difference in CVD and mortality between fitter twins and less fit twins (246 vs. 251 events; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 1.20). The risks were similar in twin pairs with ≥60-watt difference in CRF (HR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.57, 1.64). In contrast, in the nonsibling cohort, fitter men had a lower risk of the outcomes than less fit men (4,444 vs. 5,298 events; HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.79, 0.86). The association was stronger in pairs with ≥60-watt difference in CRF (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.71). These findings indicate that genetic and familial factors influence the association of CRF with CVD and mortality.

Web-based exercise versus supervised exercise for decreasing visceral adipose tissue in older adults with central obesity: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease and increases with age. While supervised exercise (SE) may be an effective approach, web-based exercise (WE) have other advantages such as being more readily accessible. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of WE on VAT, body composition and cardiometabolic risk markers in centrally obese older adults and compared the effects of WE to SE. We also explored the feasibility of WE. METHODS: In a randomized controlled trial conducted in Umeå, Sweden during January 2018 - November 2018, N = 77, 70-year-old men and women with central obesity (> 1 kg VAT for women, > 2 kg for men) were randomized to an intervention group (n = 38) and a wait-list control group (n = 39). The intervention group received 10 weeks of SE while the wait-list control group lived as usual. Following a 10-week wash-out-period, the wait-list control group received 10 weeks of WE. The primary outcome was changes in VAT. Secondary outcomes included changes in fat mass (FM), lean body mass (LBM), blood lipids, fasting blood glucose. Additionally, we explored the feasibility of WE defined as adherence and participant experiences. RESULTS: WE had no significant effect on VAT (P = 0.5), although it decreased FM by 450 g (95% confidence interval [CI], 37 to 836, P < 0.05). The adherence to WE was 85% and 87-97% of the participants rated aspects of the WE intervention > 4 on a scale of 1-5. Comparing SE to WE, there was no significant difference in decrease of VAT (Cohen's δ effect size [ES], 0.5, 95% CI, - 24 to 223, P = 0.11), although SE decreased FM by 619 g (ES, 0.5, 95% CI, 22 to 1215, P < 0.05) compared to WE. CONCLUSIONS: Ten weeks of vigorous WE is insufficient to decrease VAT in centrally obese older adults, but sufficient to decrease FM while preserving LBM. The high adherence and positive experiences of the WE intervention implies that it could serve as an alternative exercise strategy for older adults with central obesity, with increased availability for a larger population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03450655), retrospectively registered February 28, 2018.

Daily step count and incident diabetes in community-dwelling 70-year-olds: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults with diabetes take fewer steps per day than those without diabetes. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the association of daily step count with incident diabetes in community-dwelling 70-year-olds. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included N = 3055 community-dwelling 70-year-olds (52% women) who participated in a health examination in Umeå, Sweden during 2012-2017, and who were free from diabetes at baseline. Daily step count was measured for 1 week using Actigraph GT3X+ accelerometers. Cases of diabetes were collected from the Swedish National Patient Register. The dose-response association was evaluated graphically using a flexible parametric model, and hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox regressions. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 2.6 years, diabetes was diagnosed in 81 participants. There was an inverse nonlinear dose-response association between daily step count and incident diabetes, with a steep decline in risk of diabetes from a higher daily step count until around 6000 steps/day. From there, the risk decreased at a slower rate until it leveled off at around 8000 steps/day. A threshold of 4500 steps/day was found to best distinguish participants with the lowest risk of diabetes, where those taking ≥ 4500 steps/day, had 59% lower risk of diabetes, compared to those taking fewer steps (HR, 0.41, 95% CI, 0.25-0.66). Adjusting for visceral adipose tissue (VAT) attenuated the association (HR, 0.64, 95% CI, 0.38-1.06), which was marginally altered after further adjusting for sedentary time, education and other cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases (HR, 0.58, 95% CI, 0.32-1.05). CONCLUSIONS: A higher daily step count is associated with lower risk of incident diabetes in community-dwelling 70-year-olds. The greatest benefits occur at the lower end of the activity range, and much earlier than 10,000 steps/day. With the limitation of being an observational study, these findings suggest that promoting even a modest increase in daily step count may help to reduce the risk of diabetes in older adults. Because VAT appears to partly mediate the association, lifestyle interventions targeting diabetes should apart from promoting physical activity also aim to prevent and reduce central obesity.

Associations between Balance Measures and Risk of Fractures in 70-Year-Old Individuals: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

CONTEXT: There are uncertainties regarding to what extent poor vision and distracting tasks reduce balance and associate with fracture risk. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations between body sway assessed under different visual and multitasking conditions and later risk of fractures in older adults. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Umeå municipality, Sweden. PATIENTS OR OTHER PARTICIPANTS: N=5,437 community-dwelling 70-year-old individuals who participated in a population-based health examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Body sway at baseline was measured using a Wii balance board in the lateral and anterior-posterior direction during three different tests, including with eyes open, dual-tasking, and eyes closed. Fractures during follow-up were ascertained using nationwide registers. RESULTS: During a mean (range) follow-up of 4.8 (0.0-10.6) years, 348 women (12.3%) and 149 men (5.7%) sustained a fracture. In women, both anterior-posterior sway velocity (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05 95% CI, 1.01-1.08, per mm/s increase) and variation in sway velocity (HR, 1.05, 95% CI, 1.01-1.09, per standard deviation [SD] increase) during dual-tasking testing were associated with higher risk of fracture after adjustment for covariates. During testing with eyes closed, all measures of lateral sway were associated with the risk of fracture (P<0.01 for all). In men, variation in lateral (HR, 1.03, 95% CI, 1.00-1.07 per SD increase) and anterior-posterior sway velocity (HR 1.05, 95% CI, 1.01-1.10 per SD increase) during dual-tasking testing were associated with higher risk of fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Higher body sway velocity and larger variation in sway velocity were associated with higher risk of fractures in both 70-year-old men and women, especially under more challenging testing conditions.

A novel clinical prediction model for hip fractures: a development and validation study in the total population of Sweden.

Background: Low bone density and osteoporosis are indications for bone-specific treatment. However, given the limited availability of bone density data in clinical practice and the fact that most patients with hip fracture do not have osteoporosis, accurate prediction of hip fracture risk in the absence of bone density data would be crucial. Methods: This development and validation study included the entire Swedish population aged 50 years or older in 2005 (N = 3,340,977) and was conducted by cross-linking data from nationwide registers. Potential predictive variables included diagnoses, prescription medications, familial factors, frailty-related factors, and socioeconomic factors. The primary endpoint was the 5-year risk of hip fracture. Fracture prediction algorithms were developed and validated using multivariable models. Model performance and validation was also examined in a sub cohort restricted to 504,431 individuals with non-Swedish background. Findings: During a total follow-up of 15.2 million person-years, 87,089 individuals suffered a hip fracture within 5 years. In the final prediction model, 19 variables were associated with a population attributable fraction of 93.9% (95% CI, 93.7-94.1) in women and 92.7% (95% CI, 92.2-93.0) in men. The strongest predictor, besides old age, was the use of homemaker service, with a 5-year risk of hip fracture of 7.8% in women and 4.7% in men. The diagnoses most strongly predicting the 5-year risk of hip fracture was Parkinson's disease (6.8% in women, 4.6% in men) and dementia (6.1% in women, 3.6% in men). Validation of the prediction model suggested that the optimal threshold for treatment with bone-specific agents was an estimated 5-year hip fracture risk of 3%. Assuming a threshold of 3% and a 30% relative risk reduction from bone-specific treatment, the number needed to treat to prevent one hip fracture was estimated to 36 in women and 52 in men. Similar results were obtained in the sub cohort with non-Swedish background. Interpretation: A clinical prediction model developed and validated in the total Swedish population could predict the risk of hip fractures with high precision even in absence of data on bone density. The model was associated with a population attributable fraction for hip fracture of more than 90%, and the strongest predictor besides old age was the use of homemaker service, which likely reflect frailty. Based on the model, individuals with an estimated 5-year risk of hip fracture of at least 3% could be considered for bone-specific treatment. Funding: None.

Adolescent Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Risk of Cancer in Late Adulthood: Nationwide Sibling-Controlled Cohort Study.

Objective: To investigate whether the higher risks of certain cancers associated with high cardiorespiratory fitness can be explained by increased detection and unobserved confounders. Design: Nationwide sibling-controlled cohort study of adolescents. Setting: Sweden. Participants: 1 124 049 men of which 477 453 were full siblings, who underwent mandatory military conscription examinations between 1972 and 1995 at a mean age of 18.3 years. Main outcome measures: Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of overall cancer diagnosis and cancer mortality, and 14 site-specific cancers (diagnosis or death), as recorded in the Swedish National Patient Register or Cause of Death Register until 31 December 2023, modelled using flexible parametric regressions. Results: Participants were followed until a median (maximum) age of 55.9 (73.5) years, during which 98 410 were diagnosed with cancer and 16 789 had a cancer-related death (41 293 and 6908 among full siblings respectively). The most common cancers were non-melanoma skin (27 105 diagnoses & 227 deaths) and prostate cancer (24 211 diagnoses & 869 deaths). In cohort analysis, those in the highest quartile of cardiorespiratory fitness had a higher risk of prostate (adjusted HR 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.16) and skin cancer (e.g., non-melanoma HR 1.44; 1.37 to 1.50) compared to those in the lowest quartile, which led to a higher risk of any type of cancer diagnosis (HR 1.08; 1.06 to 1.11). However, those in the highest quartile had a lower risk of cancer mortality (HR 0.71; 0.67 to 0.76). When comparing full siblings, and thereby controlling for all behavioural, environmental, and genetic factors they share, the excess risk of prostate (HR 1.01; 0.90 to 1.13) and skin cancer (e.g., non-melanoma HR 1.09; 0.99 to 1.20) attenuated to the null. In contrast, the lower risk of overall cancer mortality was still statistically significant after control for such shared confounders (HR 0.78; 0.68 to 0.89). For other site-specific cancers, the influence of such confounding tended to vary, but none showed the same excess risk as prostate and non-melanoma skin cancer. Conclusions: The association between high levels of adolescent cardiorespiratory fitness and excess risk of some cancers, such as prostate and non-melanoma skin cancer, appears to be fully explained by unobserved confounders shared between full siblings. However, the protective association with cancer mortality persists even after control for such confounding.

Health dialogue intervention versus opportunistic screening in primary care for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease prevention in settings with low socioeconomic status (DETECT): study protocol for a pragmatic cluster-randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses of randomized trials suggest that health checks and health promotion interventions targeting behavior change in primary care do not prevent cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population. However, whether such interventions are more effective in high-risk populations, such as people living in low socioeconomic settings, remains unclear, as they have been poorly represented in previous trials. Therefore, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation of systematic screening followed by an individually oriented, lifestyle-focused, health dialogue intervention for prevention of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, as compared to opportunistic screening, in primary care in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. METHODS: Using an overall pragmatic approach and a cluster-randomized design with two arms, we aim to enroll 3000 participants aged 50-59 years from 30 primary care centers (PCCs) with an above-average level of Care Need Index in Stockholm Region, Sweden. PCCs will be randomized (1:1) either to a health dialogue intervention, which includes inviting enlisted patients to a systematic screening of risk factors followed by an individually oriented lifestyle-focused health dialogue, or to opportunistic screening, which includes screening patients for a smaller set of risk factors during an appointment at their PCC taking place for other reasons. The main outcome will be change in systolic blood pressure during 6- and 12-month follow-ups. Additional short-term outcomes will be changes in other biological risk factors, health-related quality-of-life, and lifestyle habits, as well as process and implementation outcomes, and unintended side effects. The long-term effect on type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality will be examined using regional and nationwide registers. Changes in systolic blood pressure and other health outcomes will be analyzed using mixed-effect generalized linear modeling and mixed-effect Cox regression to capture variability between and within PCCs. A health economic evaluation will assess resource use and costs in the short- and long-term. DISCUSSION: This trial of lifestyle-focused health dialogues and opportunistic screening in primary care in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas in the largest region of Sweden has the potential to yield valuable insights that could support evidence-based policymaking. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT06067178). Prospectively registered September 27, 2023.

Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity.

Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.

Genetic and Environmental Factors and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Adolescents.

Importance: Cardiovascular risk factors in youth have been associated with future cardiovascular disease (CVD), but conventional observational studies are vulnerable to genetic and environmental confounding. Objective: To examine the role of genetic and environmental factors shared by full siblings in the association of adolescent cardiovascular risk factors with future CVD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a nationwide cohort study with full sibling comparisons. All men who underwent mandatory military conscription examinations in Sweden between 1972 and 1995 were followed up until December 31, 2016. Data analysis was performed from May 1 to November 10, 2022. Exposures: Body mass index (BMI), cardiorespiratory fitness, blood pressure, handgrip strength, and a combined risk z score in late adolescence. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was fatal or nonfatal CVD, as recorded in the National Inpatient Register or the Cause of Death Register before 2017. Results: A total of 1 138 833 men (mean [SD] age, 18.3 [0.8] years), of whom 463 995 were full brothers, were followed up for a median (IQR) of 32.1 (26.7-37.7) years, during which 48 606 experienced a CVD outcome (18 598 among full brothers). All risk factors were associated with CVD, but the effect of controlling for unobserved genetic and environmental factors shared by full siblings varied. In the sibling analysis, hazard ratios for CVD (top vs bottom decile) were 2.10 (95% CI, 1.90-2.32) for BMI, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.88) for cardiorespiratory fitness, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.32-1.60) for systolic blood pressure, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.99) for handgrip strength, and 2.19 (95% CI, 1.96-2.46) for the combined z score. The percentage attenuation in these hazard ratios in the sibling vs total cohort analysis ranged from 1.1% for handgrip strength to 40.0% for cardiorespiratory fitness. Consequently, in the sibling analysis, the difference in cumulative CVD incidence at age 60 years (top vs bottom decile) was 7.2% (95% CI, 5.9%-8.6%) for BMI and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.0%-2.5%) for cardiorespiratory fitness. Similarly, in the sibling analysis, hypothetically shifting everyone in the worst deciles of BMI to the middle decile would prevent 14.9% of CVD at age 60 years, whereas the corresponding number for cardiorespiratory fitness was 5.3%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this Swedish national cohort study, cardiovascular risk factors in late adolescence, especially a high BMI, were important targets for CVD prevention, independently of unobserved genetic and environmental factors shared by full siblings. However, the role of adolescent cardiorespiratory fitness in CVD may have been overstated by conventional observational studies.

Effectiveness of a fourth dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine against all-cause mortality in long-term care facility residents and in the oldest old: A nationwide, retrospective cohort study in Sweden.

Background: The effect of a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine on the risk of death in the oldest and frailest individuals is unknown. Methods: Two matched cohorts were formed using Swedish nationwide registers. In the first, residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) given a fourth dose of an mRNA vaccine from 1 January 2022 onwards were matched 1:1 on birth year and county of residence to residents given at least a third dose (N = 24,524). In the second, all individuals aged ≥80 years given a fourth dose were matched 1:1 to individuals given at least a third dose (N = 394,104). Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in fourth-dose recipients as compared with in third-dose recipients, with relative vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimated as 1 minus the hazard ratio. Findings: From 7 days after baseline and onwards, there were 1119 deaths in the LTCF cohort during a median follow-up of 77 days and a maximum follow-up of 126 days. During days 7 to 60, the VE of the fourth dose was 39% (95% CI, 29-48), which declined to 27% (95% CI, -2-48) during days 61 to 126. In the cohort of all individuals aged ≥80 years, there were 5753 deaths during a median follow-up of 73 days and a maximum follow-up of 143 days. During days 7 to 60, the VE of the fourth dose was 71% (95% CI, 69-72), which declined to 54% (95% CI, 48-60) during days 61 to 143. The VE of the fourth dose seemed stronger when it was compared to third-dose recipients where at least four months had passed since vaccination (P < 0·001 for interaction). Interpretation: As compared with a third dose, a fourth dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, administered during the Omicron era, was associated with reduced risk of death from all causes in residents of LTCFs and in the oldest old during the first two months, after which the protection became slightly lower. These findings suggest that a fourth dose may prevent premature mortality in the oldest and frailest even after the emergence of the Omicron variant, although the timing of vaccination seems to be important with respect to the slight waning observed after two months. Funding: There was no funding source for this study.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and COVID-19 hospitalisation in individuals with natural and hybrid immunity: a retrospective, total population cohort study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Real-world evidence supporting vaccination against COVID-19 in individuals who have recovered from a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is sparse. We aimed to investigate the long-term protection from a previous infection (natural immunity) and whether natural immunity plus vaccination (hybrid immunity) was associated with additional protection. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we formed three cohorts using Swedish nationwide registers managed by the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the National Board of Health and Welfare, and Statistics Sweden. Cohort 1 included unvaccinated individuals with natural immunity matched pairwise on birth year and sex to unvaccinated individuals without natural immunity at baseline. Cohort 2 and cohort 3 included individuals vaccinated with one dose (one-dose hybrid immunity) or two doses (two-dose hybrid immunity) of a COVID-19 vaccine, respectively, after a previous infection, matched pairwise on birth year and sex to individuals with natural immunity at baseline. Outcomes of this study were documented SARS-CoV-2 infection from March 20, 2020, until Oct 4, 2021, and inpatient hospitalisation with COVID-19 as main diagnosis from March 30, 2020, until Sept 5, 2021. FINDINGS: Cohort 1 was comprised of 2 039 106 individuals, cohort 2 of 962 318 individuals, and cohort 3 of 567 810 individuals. During a mean follow-up of 164 days (SD 100), 34 090 individuals with natural immunity in cohort 1 were registered as having had a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection compared with 99 168 infections in non-immune individuals; the numbers of hospitalisations were 3195 and 1976, respectively. After the first 3 months, natural immunity was associated with a 95% lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0·05 [95% CI 0·05-0·05] p<0·001) and an 87% (0·13 [0·11-0·16]; p<0·001) lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation for up to 20 months of follow-up. During a mean follow-up of 52 days (SD 38) in cohort 2, 639 individuals with one-dose hybrid immunity were registered with a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, compared with 1662 individuals with natural immunity (numbers of hospitalisations were eight and 113, respectively). One-dose hybrid immunity was associated with a 58% lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection (aHR 0·42 [95% CI 0·38-0·47]; p<0·001) than natural immunity up to the first 2 months, with evidence of attenuation thereafter up to 9 months (p<0·001) of follow-up. During a mean follow-up of 66 days (SD 53) in cohort 3, 438 individuals with two-dose hybrid immunity were registered as having had a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, compared with 808 individuals with natural immunity (numbers of hospitalisations were six and 40, respectively). Two-dose hybrid immunity was associated with a 66% lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection (aHR 0·34 [95% CI 0·31-0·39]; p<0·001) than natural immunity, with no significant attenuation up to 9 months (p=0·07). To prevent one reinfection in the natural immunity cohort during follow-up, 767 individuals needed to be vaccinated with two doses. Both one-dose (HR adjusted for age and baseline date 0·06 [95% CI 0·03-0·12]; p<0·001) and two-dose (HR adjusted for age and baseline date 0·10 [0·04-0·22]; p<0·001) hybrid immunity were associated with a lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation than natural immunity. INTERPRETATION: The risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and COVID-19 hospitalisation in individuals who have survived and recovered from a previous infection remained low for up to 20 months. Vaccination seemed to further decrease the risk of both outcomes for up to 9 months, although the differences in absolute numbers, especially in hospitalisations, were small. These findings suggest that if passports are used for societal restrictions, they should acknowledge either a previous infection or vaccination as proof of immunity, as opposed to vaccination only. FUNDING: None.