Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.

Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time-area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator-we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers.

Factors determining the number of seabirds impacted by oil spills and the success of their rehabilitation: Lessons learned from Namibia and South Africa.

The coastal waters of Namibia and South Africa have an extensive history of oil spills, with 71 recorded up to 2021. Thirty-nine spills reportedly affected 83,224 seabirds, with African penguins (Spheniscus demersus; 91.0 %) and Cape gannets (Morus capensis; 8.5 %) most affected. Spills affecting seabirds were caused by unknown sources (46 %), bulk/cargo carriers (43 %), tankers (38 %) and ship-to-ship transfers (14 %). The number of penguins oiled was predicted by the breeding population size within 25 to 75 km, but not the volume of oiled spilled, the month or the year. Rehabilitation records from penguins oiled in spills since 2001 reveal that the day of admission (relative to the start of the spill) was predictive of packed cell volume, body mass, and plasma total solids, with the latter two being predictive of rehabilitation success. Our results highlight the importance of rapid monitoring at colonies to locate oiled birds in the event of spills.

Intercolony variation in reproductive skipping in the African penguin.

In long-lived species, reproductive skipping is a common strategy whereby sexually mature animals skip a breeding season, potentially reducing population growth. This may be an adaptive decision to protect survival, or a non-adaptive decision driven by individual-specific constraints. Understanding the presence and drivers of reproductive skipping behavior can be important for effective population management, yet in many species such as the endangered African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), these factors remain unknown. This study uses multistate mark-recapture methods to estimate African penguin survival and breeding probabilities at two colonies between 2013 and 2020. Overall, survival (mean ± SE) was higher at Stony Point (0.82 ± 0.01) than at Robben Island (0.77 ± 0.02). Inter-colony differences were linked to food availability; under decreasing sardine (Sardinops sagax) abundance, survival decreased at Robben Island and increased at Stony Point. Additionally, reproductive skipping was evident across both colonies; at Robben Island the probability of a breeder becoming a nonbreeder was ~0.22, versus ~0.1 at Stony Point. Penguins skipping reproduction had a lower probability of future breeding than breeding individuals; this lack of adaptive benefit suggests reproductive skipping is driven by individual-specific constraints. Lower survival and breeding propensity at Robben Island places this colony in greater need of conservation action. However, further research on the drivers of inter-colony differences is needed.