[Stratification of the population in the Basque Country: results in the first year of implementation]. / Estratificación de la población en el País Vasco: resultados en el primer año de implantación.

Predictive models allow populations to be stratified according to their health requirements for the following year. They offer health care organizations the opportunity to act proactively, designing specific interventions adapted to the level of need of different groups of people. The "Strategy for tackling the challenge of chronic illness in the Basque Country" proposes the use of such models, integrating them with other policies. The prospective categorization of all the population assigned to Osakidetza was performed for the first time in 2010 using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups predictive model (ACG-PM). For this purpose, already recorded information extracted from electronic health records of primary care and hospital discharge reports was used. This article discusses the advantages of the combined use of various sources of information, and describes the application of the stratification in three programs, targeted at chronic patients who suffer different burdens of comorbidity.

External validity of a prognostic score for acute heart failure based on the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency Departments registry: the EAHFE-3D scale. / Validación externa de la escala EAHFE-3D para la evaluación del pronóstico en insuficiencia cardiaca aguda.

OBJECTIVES: To validate the EAHFE-3D scale, based on the Acute Heart Failure in Emergency Departments registry, in a cohort of patients attended for acute heart failure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Study of a multipurpose cohort of patients with acute heart failure in 3 hospitals in the Basque Country between 2011 and 2013. We extracted age, baseline New York Heart Association functional class, systolic blood pressure, baseline arterial oxygen saturation, sodium level in blood, and emergency department treatments (noninvasive mechanical ventilation, use of inotropic agents and vasopressors) in order to calculate each patient's EAHFE-3D score. The main outcome variable was mortality within 3 days of arrival at the emergency department. RESULTS: The patient sample for score validation consisted of 717 patients with complete information. The model's intercept was 0.5 (95% CI, -2.7 to 3.7) and the slope was 1.3 (95% CI, 0.4 to 2.2). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.58 to 0.94). CONCLUSION: The EAHFE-3D scale's ability to discriminate was good in this patient sample and similar to that reported by the authors who developed the scale; however, calibration was poor. The scale should be studied further before it is applied in clinical practice.

OBJETIVO: Validar la escala pronóstica EAHFE-3D en una cohorte externa de pacientes atendidos por insuficiencia cardiaca aguda (ICA). METODO: Estudio de cohortes multipropósito que incluyó pacientes con ICA en 3 centros hospitalarios del País Vasco entre 2011 y 2013. Se recogieron los datos demográficos (edad), clase funcional basal (New York Heart Association), clínicos (presión arterial sistólica y saturación de oxígeno basal), analíticos (natremia) y terapéuticos (ventilación mecánica no invasiva e inotrópicos y vasopresores) en el servicio de urgencias (SU) necesarios para el cálculo de la escala EAHFE-3D. La variable de resultado principal fue la mortalidad a tres días de la llegada al SU. RESULTADOS: Analizamos 717 pacientes con información completa. El intercepto ß el modelo fue 0,5 (IC95%: ­2,7- 3,7) y la pendiente α fue de 1,3 (IC95%: 0,4-2,2). El área bajo la curva AUC (ROC) fue 0,76 (IC95%: 0,58-0,94). CONCLUSIONES: La escala EAHFE-3D presentó una buena capacidad predictiva en nuestra muestra, no diferente a la obtenida por los autores originales, aunque no ha mostrado buena calibración. Se recomienda continuar con el proceso de validación antes de ser implementada en la práctica clínica.

Closure of benign leaks, perforations, and fistulas with temporary placement of fully covered metal stents: a retrospective analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Partially covered self-expanding metal stents (SEMS), have been suggested as an alternative to surgery in the treatment of esophageal fistulas of benign etiology. Nevertheless, uncomplicated removal remains difficult. The use of fully covered (FC) SEMSs could solve this problem. OBJECTIVES: To review our experience with FC-SEMS placement in patients with benign upper gastrointestinal leaks or perforations. We wanted to assess successful closure of the perforations and short-term and long-term complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Multicenter study, including 3 tertiary centers. Retrospective review of patients who underwent FC-SEMS placement for benign perforations. RESULTS: Eighty-eight stents were placed in 56 patients. We achieved leak closure in 44 patients (78.6%). There were 18 migrations. All of them could be solved endoscopically. A severe septic situation was associated with a higher mortality rate (27.6% vs. 7.4%; P=0.049) and a lower success rate (34.5% vs. 7.4%; P=0.088), compared with those patients who did not present severe sepsis. However, these differences could not be confirmed by multivariable analysis. The results in the subgroup of 11 patients with leaks after sleeve gastrectomy were also good (73% success without surgery and 0% mortality). CONCLUSIONS: Temporary placement of FC-SEMS for benign perforations, fistulas, and leaks is feasible in sealing the leaks. All migrations could be solved endoscopically. It is very important to insert the stent before sepsis is established. This article also would be an addition to the growing body of literature supporting stenting as a good alternative if not standard approach to controlling these leaks.