Characteristics and prognostic factors of COVID-19 among infected cases: a nationwide Tunisian analysis.

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues to constitute an international public health concern. Few data are available on the duration and prognostic factors of the disease. We aimed to study the recovery time among a Tunisian cohort of COVID-19 confirmed patients and identify the prognostic factors. METHODS: A retrospective, nationwide study was conducted from March 2 to May 8, 2020, recruiting all patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19, by RT-PCR methods, in Tunisia. Data were collected via phone call interview. Kaplan-Meir Methods and Cox proportional hazards regression models were, respectively, used to study the recovery time and estimate its prognostic factors. RESULTS: One thousand and thirty patients with COVID-19 (aged 43.2 ± 18.2 years, 526 female (51.1%)) were enrolled. Among them 141 (14.8%) were healthcare professionals. Out of 173 patients (17.8%) admitted to the hospital, 47 were admitted in an intensive care unit. Among 827 patients who didn't require specialized care, 55.5% were self-isolated at home, while the rest were in specialized centers. Six hundred and two patients were symptomatic. A total of 634 (61.6%) patients have recovered and 45 (4.4%) patients died. The median duration of illness was estimated to be 31 days (95% CI: [29-32]). Older age (HR = 0.66, CI:[0.46-0.96], P = 0.031) and symptoms (HR = 0.61, CI:[0.43-0.81], P = 0.021) were independently associated with a delay in recovery time. Being a healthcare professional (HR = 1.52, CI: [1.10-2.08], P = 0.011) and patients in home isolation compared to isolation centers (HR = 2.99, CI: [1.85-4.83], P < 10¯3) were independently associated with faster recovery time. CONCLUSION: The duration of illness was estimated to be 1 month. However, this long estimated duration of illness may not equate to infectiousness. A particular attention must to be paid to elderly and symptomatic patients with closer monitoring.

Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control measures: a statistical analysis in Tunisia from February 29 to May 5, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. METHODS: We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of Rt. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in Rt in response to the combined lockdown interventions. The Rt moves from 3.18 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.73-3.69] to 1.77 [95% CrI 1.49-2.08] with curfew prevention measure, and under the epidemic threshold (0.89 [95% CrI 0.84-0.94]) by national lockdown measure. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.

Evaluation of the public health empowerment program in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Background: The Public Health Empowerment Program (PHEP) is a 3-month training program for frontline public health staff to improve surveillance quality and strengthen the early warning system capacities. Studies evaluating the program and its impact on the health systems in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) are lacking. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the level of PHEP graduates' engagement in field epidemiology activities, assess their perceived skills and capacity to perform these activities and assess the extent to which PHEP helped the graduates to perform field epidemiology activities. Methods: A descriptive evaluation study was conducted based on levels 3 and 4 of Kirkpatrick's model for evaluating training programs to assess the change in graduates' behavior and the direct results of the program. Data were collected using two online surveys targeting PHEP graduates and programs' directors/ technical advisers. Results: A total of 162 PHEP graduates and 8 directors/ technical advisers participated in the study. The majority of PHEP graduates reported that they are often involved in activities such as responding to disease outbreaks effectively (87.7%) and monitoring surveillance data collection (75.3%). High proportions of PHEP graduates rated their skills as good in performing most of field epidemiology activities. The majority of graduates reported that the PHEP helped them much in conducting, reviewing, and monitoring surveillance data collection (92%), responding effectively to public health events and disease outbreaks (91.4%), and communicating information effectively with agency staff and with the local community (85.2%). Conclusion: PHEP appears to be an effective program for improving the public health workforce's skills and practices in epidemiological competencies in the EMR. PHEP strengthened the engagement of the graduates in most field epidemiology activities, especially during COVID-19.

Assessment of sample pooling for SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing for screening of asymptomatic persons in Tunisia.

The aim of this study is to test a pooling approach for the RT-PCR test to detect low viral loads of SARS-CoV-2. We found that a single positive specimen can still be detected in pools of up to 10. Each laboratory should conduct its own evaluation and validation of pooling protocols according to its specific context.

Prevalence, Genotype Distribution and Risk Factors for Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection in the Grand Tunis Region, Tunisia.

Implementation of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination should be considered a key cervical cancer prevention strategy in Tunisia, where Pap smear screening is not efficient. This study aims to estimate the prevalence and to identify risk factors associated with HPV infection among women from Grand Tunis, Tunisia. We conducted a cross-sectional study, between December 2012 and May 2013. Eligible women for this study were those aged 18-65 years, sexually active, who sought medical attention at their primary health care centre or clinic in Grand Tunis, Tunisia and who gave written consent. A liquid-based Pap smear sample was obtained from all women using a cervical brush. Only women with betaglobin positive test were further analysed for HPV detection and typing. A nested-PCR of the L1 region was performed followed by reverse line blot hybridization to facilitate the specific detection of 31 HPV genotypes. Multiple logistic regression modeling was used for the analysis of associations between variables with some considered possible confounders after checking for interactions. A total of 391 women were enrolled in this study and 325 out of the 391 cervical samples were positive for the betaglobin test. Overall HPV prevalence was 13.2% [9.8%-17.5%], with the following most prevalent HPV genotypes: HPV6 (40%), HPV40 (14%), HPV16 (12%), HPV52 (9%), HPV31 and HPV59 (7%), followed by HPV68 (4%). Mean age of HPV positive women was 40.7±0.92 years. Independently associated risk factors of HPV infection were smoking (OR:2.8 [0.8-9.6]), low income (OR:9.6 [1.4-63.4), bad housing type (OR:2.5 [1-6.8]), partner with multiple sexual relationship (OR:4.5 [0.9-22.9]) and single women (widowed, divorced, separated, never married) (OR:6.9 [1.1-42.2]). This study provides the first national-based estimate of HPV prevalence in Tunisia. Our findings contribute to the evidence on the current burden of HPV infection, the critical role of sexual behaviour and socioeconomic status and call for increased support for the screening program in Tunisia to prevent cervical cancer. These results allow us to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccine program implementation in Tunisia in future.