A phase 2a open-label clinical trial to determine the effect of famciclovir on EBV activity as measured by EBV shedding in the saliva of patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing evidence that Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) plays a causal role in MS, no treatments have been shown to reduce EBV turnover. We studied the effect of famciclovir on salivary EBV shedding in people with MS (NCT05283551) in a pilot, proof-of-concept study. METHODS: People with MS receiving natalizumab provided weekly saliva samples for 12 weeks before starting famciclovir 500 mg twice daily for 12 weeks. Twelve saliva samples were provided on treatment and 12 following treatment. A real-time qPCR Taqman assay was used to detect EBV DNA in saliva. The proportion of saliva samples containing EBV DNA was compared using the Friedman test. RESULTS: Of 30 participants (19 F; mean age 41 years; median EDSS 3.5), 29 received famciclovir, and 24 completed the 12-week course. Twenty-one participants provided at least one usable saliva sample in all epochs. Ten of the 21 had shedding in at least one sample pre-drug; 7/21 when taking famciclovir (not significant). No difference in EBV DNA copy number was seen. There were no drug-related serious adverse events. CONCLUSION: No significant effect of famciclovir on EBV shedding was seen in this small pilot study. Given the low numbers, a small effect of famciclovir cannot be excluded. Salivary EBV shedding in this natalizumab-treated cohort was lower than in previous studies, which requires replication.

Phenotypic effect of GBA1 variants in individuals with and without Parkinson's disease: The RAPSODI study.

BACKGROUND: Variants in the GBA1 gene cause the lysosomal storage disorder Gaucher disease (GD). They are also risk factors for Parkinson's disease (PD), and modify the expression of the PD phenotype. The penetrance of GBA1 variants in PD is incomplete, and the ability to determine who among GBA1 variant carriers are at higher risk of developing PD, would represent an advantage for prognostic and trial design purposes. OBJECTIVES: To compare the motor and non-motor phenotype of GBA1 carriers and non-carriers. METHODS: We present the cross-sectional results of the baseline assessment from the RAPSODI study, an online assessment tool for PD patients and GBA1 variant carriers. The assessment includes clinically validated questionnaires, a tap-test, the University of Pennsyllvania Smell Identification Test and cognitive tests. Additional, homogeneous data from the PREDICT-PD cohort were included. RESULTS: A total of 379 participants completed all parts of the RAPSODI assessment (89 GBA1-negative controls, 169 GBA1-negative PD, 47 GBA1-positive PD, 47 non-affected GBA1 carriers, 27 GD). Eighty-six participants were recruited through PREDICT-PD (43 non-affected GBA1 carriers and 43 GBA1-negative controls). GBA1-positive PD patients showed worse performance in visual cognitive tasks and olfaction compared to GBA1-negative PD patients. No differences were detected between non-affected GBA1 carriers carriers and GBA1-negative controls. No phenotypic differences were observed between any of the non-PD groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support previous evidence that GBA1-positive PD has a specific phenotype with more severe non-motor symptoms. However, we did not reproduce previous findings of more frequent prodromal PD signs in non-affected GBA1 carriers.

COVID-19 Vaccine Response in People with Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of disease modifying therapies on immune response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: Four hundred seventy-three people with MS provided one or more dried blood spot samples. Information about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and vaccine history, medical, and drug history were extracted from questionnaires and medical records. Dried blood spots were eluted and tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Antibody titers were partitioned into tertiles with people on no disease modifying therapy as a reference. We calculated the odds ratio of seroconversion (univariate logistic regression) and compared quantitative vaccine response (Kruskal Wallis) following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine according to disease modifying therapy. We used regression modeling to explore the effect of vaccine timing, treatment duration, age, vaccine type, and lymphocyte count on vaccine response. RESULTS: Compared to no disease modifying therapy, the use of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01-0.06, p < 0.001) and fingolimod (odds ratio = 0.04; 95% CI = 0.01-0.12) were associated with lower seroconversion following the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. All other drugs did not differ significantly from the untreated cohort. Both time since last anti-CD20 treatment and total time on treatment were significantly associated with the response to the vaccination. The vaccine type significantly predicted seroconversion, but not in those on anti-CD20 medications. Preliminary data on cellular T-cell immunity showed 40% of seronegative subjects had measurable anti-SARS-CoV-2 T cell responses. INTERPRETATION: Some disease modifying therapies convey risk of attenuated serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in people with MS. We provide recommendations for the practical management of this patient group. ANN NEUROL 20219999:n/a-n/a.

The Emergence and Progression of Motor Dysfunction in Individuals at Risk of Parkinson's Disease.

BACKGROUND: PREDICT-PD is a United Kingdom population-based study aiming to stratify individuals for future Parkinson's disease (PD) using a risk algorithm. METHODS: A randomly selected, representative sample of participants in PREDICT-PD were examined using several motor assessments, including the motor section of the Movement Disorder Society-Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS)-III, at baseline (2012) and after an average of 6 years of follow-up. We checked for new PD diagnoses in participants seen at baseline and examined the association between risk scores and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism, motor decline (increasing ≥5 points in MDS-UPDRS-III) and single motor domains in the MDS-UPDRS-III. We replicated analyses in two independent datasets (Bruneck and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative [PPMI]). RESULTS: After 6 years of follow-up, the PREDICT-PD higher-risk group (n = 33) had a greater motor decline compared with the lower-risk group (n = 95) (30% vs. 12.5%, P = 0.031). Two participants (both considered higher risk at baseline) were given a diagnosis of PD during follow-up, with motor signs emerging between 2 and 5 years before diagnosis. A meta-analysis of data from PREDICT-PD, Bruneck, and PPMI showed an association between PD risk estimates and incident sub-threshold parkinsonism (odds ratio [OR], 2.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55-2.61]), as well as new onset bradykinesia (OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.33-2.16]) and action tremor (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.30-1.98]). CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates using the PREDICT-PD algorithm were associated with the occurrence of sub-threshold parkinsonism, including bradykinesia and action tremor. The algorithm could also identify individuals whose motor examination experience a decline over time. © 2023 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

The relationship of cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament levels with magnetic resonance imaging lesion location and disease activity in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is an accepted biomarker of disease activity in multiple sclerosis (MS), but its relationship with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) activity particularly in reference to lesion location and recurrent activity is not well understood. METHODS: In 139 MS patients who underwent lumbar punctures with follow-up in 25, the relationship between cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) NfL and cranial MRI based on lesion location and lesion number was evaluated. Spearman rank correlation was used to assess the association between CSF NfL and MRI lesion location and lesion counts at baseline and follow-up at 1 year. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to assess which lesion location was most strongly associated with CSF NfL values. RESULTS: The associations between baseline CSF NfL and lesion location and follow-up lesions were modest, whilst those between baseline MRI and follow-up CSF NfL were greater: periventricular (r = 0.31, p = 0.141), juxtacortical (r = 0.47, p = 0.022), infratentorial (r = 0.71, p ≤ 0.001) and cord lesions (r = 0.60, p = 0.002). All associations, however, improved following adjustment for disease duration and type of MS. Modelling revealed 53% of (log) CSF NfL could be explained by variance in baseline MRI lesion location. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline CSF NfL did not correlate with current or future MRI activity and lesion location. However, baseline MRI activity explained around 53% of the variation in the follow-up CSF NfL, suggesting that the relationship between MRI and CSF NfL is mainly precedent rather than an association, that is one occurring before the other.

Type 2 Diabetes as a Determinant of Parkinson's Disease Risk and Progression.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and Parkinson's disease (PD) are prevalent diseases that affect an aging population. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have explored the relationship between diabetes and the risk of PD, but the results have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to investigate T2DM as a determinant of PD through a meta-analysis of observational and genetic summary data. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies was undertaken by searching 6 databases. We selected the highest-quality studies investigating the association of T2DM with PD risk and progression. We then used Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the causal effects of genetic liability toward T2DM on PD risk and progression, using summary data derived from genome-wide association studies. RESULTS: In the observational part of the study, pooled effect estimates showed that T2DM was associated with an increased risk of PD (odds ratio [OR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.36), and there was some evidence that T2DM was associated with faster progression of motor symptoms (standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.72) and cognitive decline (SMD -0.92, 95% CI -1.50 to -0.34). Using MR, we found supportive evidence for a causal effect of diabetes on PD risk (inverse-variance weighted method [IVW] OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14; P = 0.010) and some evidence of an effect on motor progression (IVW OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20; P = 0.032) but not on cognitive progression. CONCLUSIONS: Using meta-analyses of traditional observational studies and genetic data, we observed convincing evidence for an effect of T2DM on PD risk and new evidence to support a role in PD progression. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Parkinson's disease determinants, prediction and gene-environment interactions in the UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically investigate the association of environmental risk factors and prodromal features with incident Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis and the interaction of genetic risk with these factors. To evaluate whether existing risk prediction algorithms are improved by the inclusion of genetic risk scores. METHODS: We identified individuals with an incident diagnosis of PD (n=1276) and controls (n=500 406) in UK Biobank. We determined the association of risk factors with incident PD using adjusted logistic regression models. We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using external weights and selected the best PRS from a subset of the cohort (30%). The PRS was used in a separate testing set (70%) to examine gene-environment interactions and compare predictive models for PD. RESULTS: Strong evidence of association (false discovery rate <0.05) was found between PD and a positive family history of PD, a positive family history of dementia, non-smoking, low alcohol consumption, depression, daytime somnolence, epilepsy and earlier menarche. Individuals with the highest 10% of PRSs had increased risk of PD (OR 3.37, 95% CI 2.41 to 4.70) compared with the lowest risk decile. A higher PRS was associated with earlier age at PD diagnosis and inclusion of the PRS in the PREDICT-PD algorithm led to a modest improvement in model performance. We found evidence of an interaction between the PRS and diabetes. INTERPRETATION: Here, we used UK Biobank data to reproduce several well-known associations with PD, to demonstrate the validity of a PRS and to demonstrate a novel gene-environment interaction, whereby the effect of diabetes on PD risk appears to depend on background genetic risk for PD.

Child-Parent Familial Hypercholesterolemia Screening in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: Child-parent screening for familial hypercholesterolemia has been proposed to identify persons at high risk for inherited premature cardiovascular disease. We assessed the efficacy and feasibility of such screening in primary care practice. METHODS: We obtained capillary blood samples to measure cholesterol levels and to test for familial hypercholesterolemia mutations in 10,095 children 1 to 2 years of age during routine immunization visits. Children were considered to have positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia if their cholesterol level was elevated and they had either a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation or a repeat elevated cholesterol level 3 months later. A parent of each child with a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia was considered to have a positive screening result for familial hypercholesterolemia if he or she had the same mutation as the child or, if no mutations were identified, had the higher cholesterol level of the two parents. RESULTS: The use of a prespecified cholesterol cutoff value of 1.53 multiples of the median (MoM, corresponding to a percentile of 99.2) identified 28 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.3% of the 10,095 children; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2 to 0.4), including 20 with a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 with a repeat cholesterol level of at least 1.53 MoM. A total of 17 children who had a cholesterol level of less than 1.53 MoM also had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation. The overall mutation prevalence was 1 in 273 children (37 in 10,095; 95% CI, 1 in 198 to 1 in 388). The use of an initial cholesterol cutoff value of 1.35 MoM (95th percentile) plus a mutation, or two cholesterol values of at least 1.50 MoM (99th percentile), identified 40 children who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia (0.4% of the 10,095 children, including 32 children who had a familial hypercholesterolemia mutation and 8 who did not have the mutation) and 40 parents who had positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia. CONCLUSIONS: Child-parent screening was feasible in primary care practices at routine child immunization visits. For every 1000 children screened, 8 persons (4 children and 4 parents) were identified as having positive screening results for familial hypercholesterolemia and were consequently at high risk for cardiovascular disease. (Funded by the Medical Research Council.).

Evolution and clustering of prodromal parkinsonian features in GBA1 carriers.

BACKGROUND: Five to 25% of patients with PD carry glucocerebrosidase gene mutations, and 10% to 30% of glucocerebrosidase carriers will develop PD by age 80. Stratification of PD risk in glucocerebrosidase carriers provides an opportunity to target disease-modifying therapies. OBJECTIVE: Cross-sectional and longitudinal survey of prodromal PD signs among glucocerebrosidase carriers. DESIGN: Prospective assessment of 82 glucocerebrosidase mutation carriers and 35 controls over 4 to 5 years for prodromal clinical PD features. RESULTS: At all time points, olfactory (measured using University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test) and cognitive (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) function and the International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society UPDRS parts II and III scores were significantly worse amongst glucocerebrosidase mutation carriers. Progression to microsmia (odds ratio: 8.5; 95% confidence interval: 2.6-28.2; P < 0.05) and mild cognitive impairment (odds ratio: 4.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-16.6; P < 0.05) were more rapid compared to controls. Those with worse olfaction also had worse cognition (OR, 1.5; 95% CI: 0.0-2.8; P < 0.05) and depression (OR, 1.3; 95% CI: 0.6-2.8; P < 0.05). No participants reached the MDS prodromal PD diagnostic criteria before PD diagnosis. One participant developed PD. He did not fulfill the International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society prodromal PD criteria before diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Assessment of individual and clustered PD prodromal features may serve as a useful tool to identify high-risk subjects for conversion to PD. As a result of the low conversion rate in our glucocerebrosidase mutation carriers to date, prospective validation is needed in larger cohorts to establish the profile of these features in PD convertors. © 2019 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21, 18, and 13.

PURPOSE: The purpose of the study was to determine the screening performance of prenatal reflex DNA screening for trisomies 21 (T21), 18 (T18), and 13 (T13) as part of a routine service at five hospitals. METHODS: Women who accepted screening had a first-trimester combined test (pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, free ß-human chorionic gonadotropin, nuchal translucency interpreted with maternal age). Those with a risk of having an affected pregnancy ≥1 in 800 were reflexed to a DNA sequencing test using stored plasma from the original blood sample, thereby avoiding the need to recall them. RESULTS: Of 22,812 women screened (including 106 with affected pregnancies), 2,480 (10.9%) were reflexed to DNA testing; 101/106 were detected (69/73 T21, 24/25 T18, and 8/8 T13), a 95% detection rate (95% confidence interval 89-98%) with four false positives (0.02%, 95% confidence interval 0.00-0.05%). The odds of being affected given a positive result were 25:1. Of the 105 screen-positive pregnancies, 91 (87%) had an invasive diagnostic test. Reflex DNA screening avoided up to 530 invasive diagnostic tests compared with using the combined test. CONCLUSION: Reflex DNA screening was successfully implemented in routine care, achieving a high detection rate, low false-positive rate, and, consequently, greater safety with fewer invasive diagnostic tests than other methods of screening.

Specifying a Gold Standard for the Validation of Fetal Fraction Estimation in Prenatal Screening.

BACKGROUND: An estimate of fetal fraction (FF) is needed for DNA-based screening for trisomy 21 and other aneuploidies, but there is no gold standard to validate FF measurement methods. We specify a gold standard and use it to validate a method of measuring FF (SeqFF) in singleton pregnancies. METHODS: The gold standard was a formula derived from 2 elements: (a) an estimate of the percentage of DNA fragments in maternal plasma from chromosome 21 (%Ch21) in pregnancies without trisomy 21, 18, or 13 (PU) and (b) calculation of %Ch21 with increasing FF in trisomy 21 pregnancies (P21). The SeqFF method was evaluated by plotting regression lines of %Ch21 and SeqFF estimates of FF in 31 singleton male and 31 female trisomy 21 pregnancies and comparing the regressions with the reference line derived from the gold standard formula. RESULTS: The gold standard formula was P21 = (1/2)PUFF + PU, with FF expressed as a proportion, or converting %Ch21 to multiples of the median (MoM), P21(MoM) = (1/2)FF + 1. Based on 3865 pregnancies, the PU was 1.2935%. The regression lines for trisomy 21 pregnancies with male and female fetuses were almost identical to the gold standard reference line (regression slopes in MoMs 0.52 and 0.50, respectively, compared with 0.50 for the gold standard reference line). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed gold standard can be used to validate different methods of estimating FF in singleton pregnancies. SeqFF is an accurate method of estimating FF.

Dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and transcranial sonography as imaging markers of prediagnostic Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine whether prediagnostic features of Parkinson's disease (PD) were associated with changes in dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and transcranial sonography. METHODS: Prediagnostic features of PD (risk estimates, University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test, Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire, and finger-tapping scores) were assessed in a large cohort of older U.K. residents. A total of 46 participants were included in analyses of prediagnostic features and MDS-UPDRS scores with the striatal binding ratio on dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography and nigral hyperechogenicity on transcranial sonography. RESULTS: The striatal binding ratio was associated with PD risk estimates (P = .040), University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (P = .002), Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire scores (P = .024), tapping speed (P = .024), and MDS-UPDRS motor scores (P = .009). Remotely collected assessments explained 26% of variation in the striatal binding ratio. The inclusion of MDS-UPDRS motor scores did not explain additional variance. The size of the nigral echogenic area on transcranial sonography was associated with risk estimates (P < .001) and MDS-UPDRS scores (P = .03) only. CONCLUSIONS: The dopamine reuptake transporter-single-photon emission computed tomography results correlated with motor and nonmotor features of prediagnostic PD, supporting its potential use as a marker in the prodromal phase of PD. Transcranial sonography results also correlated with risk scores and motor signs. © 2018 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Evaluation of stability of directly standardized rates for sparse data using simulation methods.

BACKGROUND: Directly standardized rates (DSRs) adjust for different age distributions in different populations and enable, say, the rates of disease between the populations to be directly compared. They are routinely published but there is concern that a DSR is not valid when it is based on a "small" number of events. The aim of this study was to determine the value at which a DSR should not be published when analyzing real data in England. METHODS: Standard Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used assuming the number of events in 19 age groups (i.e., 0-4, 5-9, ... 90+ years) follow independent Poisson distributions. The total number of events, age specific risks, and the population sizes in each age group were varied. For each of 10,000 simulations the DSR (using the 2013 European Standard Population weights), together with the coverage of three different methods (normal approximation, Dobson, and Tiwari modified gamma) of estimating the 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated. RESULTS: The normal approximation was, as expected, not suitable for use when fewer than 100 events occurred. The Tiwari method and the Dobson method of calculating confidence intervals produced similar estimates and either was suitable when the expected or observed numbers of events were 10 or greater. The accuracy of the CIs was not influenced by the distribution of the events across categories (i.e., the degree of clustering, the age distributions of the sampling populations, and the number of categories with no events occurring in them). CONCLUSIONS: DSRs should not be given when the total observed number of events is less than 10. The Dobson method might be considered the preferred method due to the formulae being simpler than that of the Tiwari method and the coverage being slightly more accurate.

Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies: Estimates of screening performance based on 61 affected and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies.

The aims of this study were to determine whether assumptions used in prenatal screening for Down syndrome in twin pregnancies are valid and derive estimates of risk and screening performance in twin pregnancies using observed data. Data were collected on nuchal translucency, chorionicity, pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free ß human chorionic gonadotrophin (free ß-hCG) from 61 twin pregnancies with Down syndrome and 7302 unaffected twin pregnancies. Distribution parameters were determined and used to estimate screening performance. The assumption that proportional differences in serum marker levels in affected and unaffected singleton pregnancies apply to twin pregnancies was not confirmed. Median free ß-hCG value in monochorionic affected twin pregnancies (2.63 multiples of the median [MoM]; 95% CI, 1.79-3.22 MoM) was lower than that assuming proportionality (3.76 MoM), and the median PAPP-A value in dichorionic affected twin pregnancies (1.88 MoM; 95% CI, 1.60-2.17 MoM) was higher than that based on proportionality (1.33 MoM). The detection rate was 87% for a 3% false-positive rate in monochorionic twin pregnancies and 74% in dichorionic twin pregnancies compared with 86% in singleton pregnancies. Estimates of screening performance in Down syndrome twin pregnancies do not need to rely on assumptions and can take account of chorionicity and gestational age.

Subtle motor disturbances in PREDICT-PD participants.

OBJECTIVE: The PREDICT-PD study aims to identify increased risk of Parkinson''s disease (PD) using online assessments of previously identified risk and early features of PD and an evidence-based scoring algorithm. We sought to determine whether higher risk participants (defined as those above the 15th centile of risk estimates) were more likely to have mild parkinsonian signs compared with lower risk participants. METHODS: Video recordings of neurological examinations, including the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) part III, of 208 individuals who had previously completed an online risk assessment were scored blindly and independently by two movement-disorders experts. Higher risk and lower risk subjects were compared for MDS-UPDRS part III score (and derivations of this) to identify subclinical parkinsonism, and association of risk estimates with MDS-UPDRS III scores assessed. RESULTS: Higher risk subjects had significantly higher median UPDRS part III scores (3, IQR 1-5.5) than lower risk subjects (1, IQR 0-3.0; p<0.001), and there was a significantly greater proportion of individuals classified as having subclinical parkinsonism. 18% of the higher risk subjects and 6% of the lower risk subjects exceeded the most stringent published cut-off for subtle parkinsonism of three definitions examined (p=0.027). Linear regression analysis demonstrated a continuous relationship of log-transformed risk estimates with UPDRS part III scores (increase in MDS-UPDRS per doubling of odds 0.52, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.72; p<0.001), which remained after adjustment for multiple vascular risk factors and scores on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (0.58, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.87; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT-PD algorithm identifies a population with an increased rate of motor disturbances.

PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). OBJECTIVE: To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. METHODS: Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Genetic comorbidities in Parkinson's disease.

Parkinson's disease (PD) has a number of known genetic risk factors. Clinical and epidemiological studies have suggested the existence of intermediate factors that may be associated with additional risk of PD. We construct genetic risk profiles for additional epidemiological and clinical factors using known genome-wide association studies (GWAS) loci related to these specific phenotypes to estimate genetic comorbidity in a systematic review. We identify genetic risk profiles based on GWAS variants associated with schizophrenia and Crohn's disease as significantly associated with risk of PD. Conditional analyses adjusting for SNPs near loci associated with PD and schizophrenia or PD and Crohn's disease suggest that spatially overlapping loci associated with schizophrenia and PD account for most of the shared comorbidity, while variation outside of known proximal loci shared by PD and Crohn's disease accounts for their shared genetic comorbidity. We examine brain methylation and expression signatures proximal to schizophrenia and Crohn's disease loci to infer functional changes in the brain associated with the variants contributing to genetic comorbidity. We compare our results with a systematic review of epidemiological literature, while the findings are dissimilar to a degree; marginal genetic associations corroborate the directionality of associations across genetic and epidemiological data. We show a strong genetically defined level of comorbidity between PD and Crohn's disease as well as between PD and schizophrenia, with likely functional consequences of associated variants occurring in brain.

Constipation preceding Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review published literature to estimate the magnitude of association between premorbid constipation and later diagnosis of Parkinson's disease. BACKGROUND: Constipation is a recognised non-motor feature of Parkinson's and has been reported to predate diagnosis in a number of observational studies. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out following the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) criteria. A literature search was undertaken in December 2014 using PubMed and the search terms 'Parkinson's disease' and 'constipation'. Articles were screened for suitability and reviewed against inclusion and exclusion criteria. Studies were included if they assessed constipation by means of a structured questionnaire or if constipation/drugs used to treat constipation were coded in patient medical records. Data were extracted using a standardised template and effect size estimates combined using a fixed-effects model. Heterogeneity was explored with the I(2) statistic. RESULTS: 9 studies were included in the meta-analysis, with a combined sample size of 741 593 participants. Those with constipation had a pooled OR of 2.27 (95% CI 2.09 to 2.46) for developing subsequent Parkinson's disease compared with those without constipation. Weak evidence for heterogeneity was found (I(2)=18.9%, p=0.282). Restricting analysis to studies assessing constipation more than 10 years prior to Parkinson's disease gave a pooled OR of 2.13 (95% CI 1.78 to 2.56; I(2)=0.0%). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrates that people with constipation are at a higher risk of developing Parkinson's disease compared with those without and that constipation can predate Parkinson's diagnosis by over a decade.

Prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome: enhancing the screening performance of the initial first trimester test.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of adding three biochemical markers (alphafetoprotein, inhibin-A, and placental growth factor) and two ultrasound markers (ductus venosus pulsatility index and nasal bone examination) to enhance the initial Combined test in prenatal reflex DNA screening for Down syndrome. METHODS: Published data were used to estimate screening performance [detection rates (DRs) and false-positive rates (FPRs)] of reflex DNA screening according to the additional markers used, the proportion of women with the highest initial test risks reflexed to DNA testing and the gestational age at the time of blood collection. RESULTS: If 10% of women are reflexed, the addition of the three biochemical markers to the Combined test increases the DR from 90.8% to 92.3% (FPR 0.025% to 0.027%) with markers measured at 11 completed weeks' gestation. With markers measured at 13 completed weeks' gestation the DR increases from 87.7% to 95.2% (FPRs both 0.027%). The further addition of the two ultrasound markers increases the DR to 96.8% and 97.5% at 11 and 13 weeks' respectively (FPR to 0.024% and 0.022% respectively). CONCLUSION: Adding the specified markers to the Combined test can maintain or improve screening performance with a lower proportion of women reflexed. Our results can be used to determine the most cost-effective reflex DNA screening policy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.