A prediction model for response to immune checkpoint inhibition in advanced melanoma.

Predicting who will benefit from treatment with immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with advanced melanoma is challenging. We developed a multivariable prediction model for response to ICI, using routinely available clinical data including primary melanoma characteristics. We used a population-based cohort of 3525 patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-PD-1-based therapy. Our prediction model for predicting response within 6 months after ICI initiation was internally validated with bootstrap resampling. Performance evaluation included calibration, discrimination and internal-external cross-validation. Included patients received anti-PD-1 monotherapy (n = 2366) or ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1159) in any treatment line. The model included serum lactate dehydrogenase, World Health Organization performance score, type and line of ICI, disease stage and time to first distant recurrence-all at start of ICI-, and location and type of primary melanoma, the presence of satellites and/or in-transit metastases at primary diagnosis and sex. The over-optimism adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.66). The range of predicted response probabilities was 7%-81%. Based on these probabilities, patients were categorized into quartiles. Compared to the lowest response quartile, patients in the highest quartile had a significantly longer median progression-free survival (20.0 vs 2.8 months; P < .001) and median overall survival (62.0 vs 8.0 months; P < .001). Our prediction model, based on routinely available clinical variables and primary melanoma characteristics, predicts response to ICI in patients with advanced melanoma and discriminates well between treated patients with a very good and very poor prognosis.

Adjuvant treatment with anti-PD-1 in acral melanoma: A nationwide study.

Previous studies demonstrated limited efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in unresectable acral melanoma (AM); it remains unclear how this translates to the adjuvant setting. This study investigates clinical outcomes of acral compared to cutaneous melanoma (CM) patients treated with adjuvant anti-PD-1 after complete resection. All stages III-IV AM and CM patients receiving adjuvant anti-PD-1 after complete resection between 2018 and 2022 were included from the prospective nationwide Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. We analyzed recurrence-free survival (RFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and overall survival (OS). A multivariable Cox regression analysis of RFS was performed to adjust for potential confounders. We included 1958 (86 AM and 1872 CM) patients. At baseline, AM patients more frequently had KIT mutations, higher disease stages, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, and fewer BRAF and NRAS mutations. Median RFS was 14.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.5-29.3) in AM and 37.4 months (95% CI: 34.6 to not reached) in CM (p = .002). After correcting for potential confounders, AM remained associated with a higher risk of recurrence (HRadj 1.53; 95% CI: 1.07-2.17; p = .019). Two-year DMFS tended to be worse for AM than for CM: 64.5% versus 79.7% (p = .050). Two-year OS was significantly lower in AM (71.5% vs. 84.3%; p = .027). The results of this study suggest a poorer outcome of adjuvant-treated AM compared to CM. Studies assessing the added value of adjuvant treatment in AM are needed. Future research should investigate alternative treatment strategies to improve outcomes of high-risk AM.

BRAF/MEK inhibitor rechallenge in advanced melanoma patients.

BACKGROUND: Effectivity of BRAF(/MEK) inhibitor rechallenge has been described in prior studies. However, structured data are largely lacking. METHODS: Data from all advanced melanoma patients treated with BRAFi(/MEKi) rechallenge were retrieved from the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. The authors analyzed objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) for both first treatment and rechallenge. They performed a multivariable logistic regression and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess factors associated with response and survival. RESULTS: The authors included 468 patients in the largest cohort to date who underwent at least two treatment episodes of BRAFi(/MEKi). Following rechallenge, ORR was 43%, median PFS was 4.6 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1-5.2), and median OS was 8.2 months (95% CI, 7.2-9.4). Median PFS after rechallenge for patients who discontinued first BRAFi(/MEKi) treatment due to progression was 3.1 months (95% CI, 2.7-4.0) versus 5.2 months (95% CI, 4.5-5.9) for patients who discontinued treatment for other reasons. Discontinuing first treatment due to progression and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels greater than two times the upper limit of normal were associated with lower odds of response and worse PFS and OS. Symptomatic brain metastases were associated with worse survival, whereas a longer treatment interval between first treatment and rechallenge was associated with better survival. Responding to the first BRAFi(/MEKi) treatment was not associated with response or survival. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that patients benefit from rechallenge. Elevated LDH levels, symptomatic brain metastases, and discontinuing first BRAFi(/MEKi) treatment due to progression are associated with less benefit from rechallenge. A prolonged treatment interval is associated with more benefit from rechallenge.

Comparative Performance Analysis of Idylla and Archer in the Detection of Gene Fusions in Spitzoid Melanocytic Tumors.

Melanocytic neoplasms with spitzoid histomorphology are often difficult to classify without identifying genetic drivers such as kinase fusions. Traditional diagnostic methods, such as immunohistochemistry, can yield inconclusive results, and advanced techniques such as the Archer fusion assay are often inaccessible and costly. The Idylla GeneFusion Assay might offer a rapid and cost-effective alternative. This study compared Idylla and Archer in identifying ALK, pan-NTRK, RET, and ROS1 gene fusions. Of the 147 samples where next-generation sequencing did not detect genetic drivers, 89 (60.5%) meeting the tissue requirements were further analyzed using Idylla (Cohort A). Idylla demonstrated a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 100% in detecting these fusions. Additionally, among 27 randomly selected cases (Cohort B) that failed to meet the inclusion criteria, Idylla maintained the same levels of sensitivity and specificity. Our findings also show that Idylla can be effectively conducted with isolated RNA, broadening its applicability beyond tissue samples. Although the Idylla assay may not replace more comprehensive molecular assays such as Archer, it could serve as a valuable initial screening tool in diagnosing spitzoid melanocytic tumors.

BRAF Mutated and Morphologically Spitzoid Tumors, a Subgroup of Melanocytic Neoplasms Difficult to Distinguish From True Spitz Neoplasms.

Drivers of Spitz neoplasms include activating point mutations in HRAS and Spitz-associated genomic fusions. It has become evident that some BRAF -mutated melanocytic neoplasms can morphologically mimic Spitz tumors (STs). These have been termed BRAF mutated and morphologically spitzoid (BAMS). In this study, 17 experts from the International Melanoma Pathology Study Group assessed 54 cases which included 40 BAMS and 14 true STs. The participants reviewed the cases blinded to the genomic data and selected among several diagnostic options, including BAMS, ST, melanoma, and other. A total of 38% of all diagnostic selections in the BAMS cases were for BAMS, whereas 32% were for ST. In 22 of the BAMS cases, the favored diagnosis was BAMS, whereas in 17 of the BAMS cases, the favored diagnosis was ST. Among the 20 cases in the total group of 54 with the highest number of votes for ST, half were BAMS. Of BAMS, 75% had a number of votes for ST that was within the SD of votes for ST seen among true ST cases. There was poor interobserver agreement for the precise diagnosis of the BAMS (kappa = 0.16) but good agreement that these cases were not melanoma (kappa = 0.7). BAMS nevi/tumors can closely mimic Spitz neoplasms. Expert melanoma pathologists in this study favored a diagnosis of ST in nearly half of the BAMS cases. There are BAMS cases that even experts cannot morphologically distinguish from true Spitz neoplasms.

Interferon-gamma signature as prognostic and predictive marker in macroscopic stage III melanoma.

BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of patients with macroscopic stage III melanoma do not benefit sufficiently from adjuvant anti-PD-1 therapy, as they either recur despite therapy or would never have recurred. To better inform adjuvant treatment selection, we have performed translational analyses to identify prognostic and predictive biomarkers. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two cohorts of patients with macroscopic stage III melanoma from an ongoing biobank study were included. Clinical data were compared between an observation cohort (cohort 1) and an adjuvant intention cohort (cohort 2). RNA sequencing for translational analyses was performed and treatment subgroups (cohort 1A and cohort 2A) were compared for possible biomarkers, using a cut-off based on the treatment-naïve patients. In addition, two validation cohorts (Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) and University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU)) were obtained. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 26 months of the 98 patients in our discovery set, median recurrence-free survival (RFS) was significantly longer for the adjuvant intention cohort (cohort 2, n=49) versus the observation cohort (cohort 1, n=49). Median overall survival was not reached for either cohort, nor significantly different. In observation cohort 1A (n=24), RFS was significantly longer for patients with high interferon-gamma (IFNγ) score (p=0.002); for adjuvant patients of cohort 2A (n=24), a similar trend was observed (p=0.086). Patients with high B cell score had a longer RFS in cohort 1A, but no difference was seen in cohort 2A. The B cell score based on RNA correlated with CD20+ cells in tumor area but was not independent from the IFNγ score. In the MIA validation cohort (n=44), longer RFS was observed for patients with high IFNγ score compared with low IFNγ score (p=0.046), no difference in RFS was observed according to the B cell score. In both the observation (n=11) and the adjuvant (n=11) UMCU validation cohorts, no difference in RFS was seen for IFNγ and B cell. CONCLUSIONS: IFNγ has shown to be a prognostic marker in both patients who were and were not treated with adjuvant therapy. B cell score was prognostic but did not improve accuracy over IFNγ. Our study confirmed RFS benefit of adjuvant anti-PD-1 for patients with macroscopic stage III melanoma.

Baseline tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte patterns and response to immune checkpoint inhibition in metastatic cutaneous melanoma.

INTRODUCTION: The presence of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in melanoma has been linked to survival. Their predictive capability for immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) response remains uncertain. Therefore, we investigated the association between treatment response and TILs in the largest cohort to date and analyzed if this association was independent of known clinical predictors. METHODS: In this multicenter cohort study, patients who received first-line anti-PD1 ± anti-CTLA4 for advanced melanoma were identified. TILs were scored on hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) slides of primary melanoma and pre-treatment metastases using the validated TILs-WG, Clark and MIA score. The primary outcome was objective response rate (ORR), with progression free survival and overall survival being secondary outcomes. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard were performed, adjusting for known clinical predictors. RESULTS: Metastatic melanoma specimens were available for 650 patients and primary specimens for 565 patients. No association was found in primary melanoma specimens. In metastatic specimens, a 10-point increase in the TILs-WG score was associated with a higher probability of response (aOR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.07-1.28), increased PFS (HR 0.93, 95 % CI 0.87-0.996), and OS (HR 0.94, 95 % CI 0.89-0.99). When categorized, patients in the highest tertile TILs-WG score (15-100 %) compared to the lowest tertile (0 %) had a longer median PFS (13.1 vs. 7.3 months, p = 0.04) and OS (49.4 vs. 19.5 months, p = 0.003). Similar results were noted using the MIA and Clark scores. CONCLUSION: In advanced melanoma patients, TIL patterns on H&E slides of pre-treatment metastases, regardless of measurement method, are independently associated with ICI response. TILs are easily scored on readily available H&Es, facilitating the use of this biomarker in clinical practice.

The Impact of Next-generation Sequencing on Interobserver Agreement and Diagnostic Accuracy of Desmoplastic Melanocytic Neoplasms.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is increasingly being utilized as an ancillary tool for diagnostically challenging melanocytic neoplasms. It is incumbent upon the pathology community to perform studies assessing the benefits and limitations of these tools in specific diagnostic scenarios. One of the most challenging diagnostic scenarios faced by skin pathologists involves accurate diagnosis of desmoplastic melanocytic neoplasms (DMNs). In this study, 20 expert melanoma pathologists rendered a diagnosis on 47 DMNs based on hematoxylin and eosin sections with demographic information. After submitting their diagnosis, the experts were given the same cases, but this time with comprehensive genomic sequencing results, and asked to render a diagnosis again. Identification of desmoplastic melanoma (DM) improved by 7%, and this difference was statistically significant ( P <0.05). In addition, among the 15 melanoma cases, in the pregenomic assessment, only 12 were favored to be DM by the experts, while after genomics, this improved to 14 of the cases being favored to be DM. In fact, some cases resulting in metastatic disease had a substantial increase in the number of experts recognizing them as DM after genomics. The impact of the genomic findings was less dramatic among benign and intermediate-grade desmoplastic tumors (BIDTs). Interobserver agreement also improved, with the Fleiss multirater Kappa being 0.36 before genomics to 0.4 after genomics. NGS has the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy in the assessment of desmoplastic melanocytic tumors. The degree of improvement will be most substantial among pathologists with some background and experience in bioinformatics and melanoma genetics.

Long-Term Survival in Patients With Advanced Melanoma.

IMPORTANCE: Long-term survival data from clinical trials show that survival curves of patients with advanced melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) gradually reach a plateau, suggesting that patients have a chance of achieving long-term survival. OBJECTIVE: To investigate long-term survival in patients with advanced melanoma treated with ICIs outside clinical trials. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study using prospectively collected data from the nationwide Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry, including patients in the Netherlands with advanced melanoma treated with first-line ICIs from 2012 to 2019. Data were analyzed from January to September 2023. EXPOSURES: Patients were treated with first-line ipilimumab-nivolumab, antibodies that target programmed cell death (anti-PD-1), or ipilimumab. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Progression-free survival (PFS) and melanoma-specific survival were analyzed, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate factors associated with PFS after reaching partial response (PR) or complete response (CR). RESULTS: A total of 2490 patients treated with first-line ICIs were included (median [IQR] age, 65.0 [55.3-73.0] years; 1561 male patients [62.7%]). Most patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of 1 or lower (2202 patients [88.5%]) and normal lactate dehydrogenase levels (1715 patients [68.9%]). PFS for all patients was 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%) after 3 years and 19.7% (95% CI, 18.0%-21.4%) after 5 years. Overall survival for all patients was 44.0% (95% CI, 42.1%-46.1%) after 3 years and 35.9% (95% CI, 33.9%-38.0%) after 5 years. Patients with metastases in 3 or more organ sites had a significantly higher hazard of progression after reaching PR or CR (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.11-1.69). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cohort study of patients with advanced melanoma treated with ICIs in clinical practice showed that their survival reached a plateau, comparable with patients participating in clinical trials. These findings can be used in daily clinical practice to guide long-term surveillance strategies and inform both physicians and patients regarding long-term treatment outcomes.

Improving survival in advanced melanoma patients: a trend analysis from 2013 to 2021.

Background: The prognosis of advanced melanoma patients has significantly improved over the years. We aimed to evaluate the survival per year of diagnosis. Methods: All systemically treated patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma from 2013 to 2021 were included from the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. Baseline characteristics and overall survival (OS) were compared between the different years of diagnosis. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between year of diagnosis and OS. Findings: For this cohort study, we included 6260 systemically treated advanced melanoma patients. At baseline, there was an increase over the years in age, the percentage of patients with an ECOG PS ≥ 2, with brain metastases, and a synchronous diagnosis of primary and unresectable melanoma. Median OS increased from 11.2 months (95% CI 10.0-12.4) for patients diagnosed in 2013 to 32.0 months (95% CI 26.6-36.7) for patients diagnosed in 2019. Median OS was remarkably lower for patients diagnosed in 2020 (26.6 months; 95% CI 23.9-35.1) and 2021 (24.0 months; 95% CI 20.4-NR). Patients diagnosed in 2020 and 2021 had a higher hazard of death compared to patients diagnosed in 2019, although this was not significant. The multivariable Cox regression showed a lower hazard of death for the years of diagnosis after 2013. In contrast, patients diagnosed in 2020 and 2021 had a higher hazard of death compared to patients diagnosed in 2019. Interpretation: After a continuous survival improvement for advanced melanoma patients between 2013 and 2019, outcomes of patients diagnosed in 2020 and 2021 seem poorer. This trend of decreased survival remained after correcting for known prognostic factors and previous neoadjuvant or adjuvant treatment, suggesting that it is explained by unmeasured factors, which-considering the timing-could be COVID-19-related. Funding: For the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry (DMTR), the Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing foundation received a start-up grant from governmental organization The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW, project number 836002002). The DMTR is structurally funded by Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck Sharpe & Dohme, Novartis, and Roche Pharma. Roche Pharma stopped funding in 2019, and Pierre Fabre started funding the DMTR in 2019. For this work, no funding was granted.