Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website.

Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues present the GATHER statement, which seeks to promote good practice in the reporting of global health estimates.

Correction: Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002056.].

Trends in access to health services and financial protection in China between 2003 and 2011: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In the past decade, the Government of China initiated health-care reforms to achieve universal access to health care by 2020. We assessed trends in health-care access and financial protection between 2003, and 2011, nationwide. METHODS: We used data from the 2003, 2008, and 2011 National Health Services Survey (NHSS), which used multistage stratified cluster sampling to select 94 of 2859 counties from China's 31 provinces and municipalities. The 2011 survey was done with a subset of the NHSS sampling frame to monitor key indicators after the national health-care reforms were announced in 2009. Three sets of indicators were chosen to measure trends in access to coverage, health-care activities, and financial protection. Data were disaggregated by urban or rural residence and by three geographical regions: east, central, and west, and by household income. We examined change in equity across and within regions. FINDINGS: The number of households interviewed was 57,023 in 2003, 56,456 in 2008, and 18,822 in 2011. Response rates were 98·3%, 95·0%, and 95·5%, respectively. The number of individuals interviewed was 193,689 in 2003, 177,501 in 2008, and 59,835 in 2011. Between 2003 and 2011, insurance coverage increased from 29·7% (57,526 of 193,689) to 95·7% (57,262 of 59,835, p<0·0001). The average share of inpatient costs reimbursed from insurance increased from 14·4 (13·7-15·1) in 2003 to 46·9 (44·7-49·1) in 2011 (p<0·0001). Hospital delivery rates averaged 95·8% (1219 of 1272) in 2011. Hospital admissions increased 2·5 times to 8·8% (5288 of 59,835, p<0·0001) in 2011 from 3·6% (6981 of 193,689) in 2003. 12·9% of households (2425 of 18,800) had catastrophic health expenses in 2011. Caesarean section rates increased from 19·2% (736 of 3835) to 36·3% (443 of 1221, p<0·0001) between 2003 and 2011. INTERPRETATION: Remarkable increases in insurance coverage and inpatient reimbursement were accompanied by increased use and coverage of health care. Important advances have been made in achieving equal access to services and insurance coverage across and within regions. However, these increases have not been accompanied by reductions in catastrophic health expenses. With the achievement of basic health-services coverage, future challenges include stronger risk protection, and greater efficiency and quality of care. FUNDING: None.

Equity in maternal, newborn, and child health interventions in Countdown to 2015: a retrospective review of survey data from 54 countries.

BACKGROUND: Countdown to 2015 tracks progress towards achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5, with particular emphasis on within-country inequalities. We assessed how inequalities in maternal, newborn, and child health interventions vary by intervention and country. METHODS: We reanalysed data for 12 maternal, newborn, and child health interventions from national surveys done in 54 Countdown countries between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2008. We calculated coverage indicators for interventions according to standard definitions, and stratified them by wealth quintiles on the basis of asset indices. We assessed inequalities with two summary indices for absolute inequality and two for relative inequality. FINDINGS: Skilled birth attendant coverage was the least equitable intervention, according to all four summary indices, followed by four or more antenatal care visits. The most equitable intervention was early initation of breastfeeding. Chad, Nigeria, Somalia, Ethiopia, Laos, and Niger were the most inequitable countries for the interventions examined, followed by Madagascar, Pakistan, and India. The most equitable countries were Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Community-based interventions were more equally distributed than those delivered in health facilities. For all interventions, variability in coverage between countries was larger for the poorest than for the richest individuals. INTERPRETATION: We noted substantial variations in coverage levels between interventions and countries. The most inequitable interventions should receive attention to ensure that all social groups are reached. Interventions delivered in health facilities need specific strategies to enable the countries' poorest individuals to be reached. The most inequitable countries need additional efforts to reduce the gap between the poorest individuals and those who are more affluent. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Norad, The World Bank.

How changes in coverage affect equity in maternal and child health interventions in 35 Countdown to 2015 countries: an analysis of national surveys.

BACKGROUND: Achievement of global health goals will require assessment of progress not only nationally but also for population subgroups. We aimed to assess how the magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in health changes in relation to different rates of national progress in coverage of interventions for the health of mothers and children. METHODS: We assessed coverage in low-income and middle-income countries for which two Demographic Health Surveys or Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys were available. We calculated changes in overall coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and a composite coverage index, and examined coverage of a newly introduced intervention, use of insecticide-treated bednets by children. We stratified coverage data according to asset-based wealth quintiles, and calculated relative and absolute indices of inequality. We adjusted correlation analyses for time between surveys and baseline coverage levels. FINDINGS: We included 35 countries with surveys done an average of 9·1 years apart. Pro-rich inequalities were very prevalent. We noted increased coverage of skilled birth attendants, measles vaccination, and the composite index in most countries from the first to the second survey, while inequalities were reduced. Rapid changes in overall coverage were associated with improved equity. These findings were not due to a capping effect associated with limited scope for improvement in rich households. For use of insecticide-treated bednets, coverage was high for the richest households, but countries making rapid progress did almost as well in reaching the poorest groups. National increases in coverage were primarily driven by how rapidly coverage increased in the poorest quintiles. INTERPRETATION: Equity should be accounted for when planning the scaling up of interventions and assessing national progress. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; World Bank; Governments of Australia, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Sweden, and UK.

Measuring impact in the Millennium Development Goal era and beyond: a new approach to large-scale effectiveness evaluations.

Evaluation of large-scale programmes and initiatives aimed at improvement of health in countries of low and middle income needs a new approach. Traditional designs, which compare areas with and without a given programme, are no longer relevant at a time when many programmes are being scaled up in virtually every district in the world. We propose an evolution in evaluation design, a national platform approach that: uses the district as the unit of design and analysis; is based on continuous monitoring of different levels of indicators; gathers additional data before, during, and after the period to be assessed by multiple methods; uses several analytical techniques to deal with various data gaps and biases; and includes interim and summative evaluation analyses. This new approach will promote country ownership, transparency, and donor coordination while providing a rigorous comparison of the cost-effectiveness of different scale-up approaches.

Violence-related mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the death toll in Iraq from the time of the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 until June 2006 have ranged from 47,668 (from the Iraq Body Count) to 601,027 (from a national survey). Results from the Iraq Family Health Survey (IFHS), which was conducted in 2006 and 2007, provide new evidence on mortality in Iraq. METHODS: The IFHS is a nationally representative survey of 9345 households that collected information on deaths in the household since June 2001. We used multiple methods for estimating the level of underreporting and compared reported rates of death with those from other sources. RESULTS: Interviewers visited 89.4% of 1086 household clusters during the study period; the household response rate was 96.2%. From January 2002 through June 2006, there were 1325 reported deaths. After adjustment for missing clusters, the overall rate of death per 1000 person-years was 5.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.89 to 5.77); the estimated rate of violence-related death was 1.09 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.50). When underreporting was taken into account, the rate of violence-related death was estimated to be 1.67 (95% uncertainty range, 1.24 to 2.30). This rate translates into an estimated number of violent deaths of 151,000 (95% uncertainty range, 104,000 to 223,000) from March 2003 through June 2006. CONCLUSIONS: Violence is a leading cause of death for Iraqi adults and was the main cause of death in men between the ages of 15 and 59 years during the first 3 years after the 2003 invasion. Although the estimated range is substantially lower than a recent survey-based estimate, it nonetheless points to a massive death toll, only one of the many health and human consequences of an ongoing humanitarian crisis.

Mind the gap: equity and trends in coverage of maternal, newborn, and child health services in 54 Countdown countries.

BACKGROUND: Increasing the coverage of key maternal, newborn, and child health interventions is essential if Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 4 and 5 are to be reached. We have assessed equity and trends in coverage rates of a key set of interventions through a summary index, to provide overall insight into past performance and progress perspectives. METHODS: Data from household surveys from 54 countries in the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival initiative during 1990-2006 were used to compute an aggregate coverage index based on four intervention areas: family planning, maternal and newborn care, immunisation, and treatment of sick children. The four areas were given equal weight in the computation of the index. Standard measures were applied to assess current levels and trends in the coverage gap measure by wealth quintile. FINDINGS: The overall size of the coverage gap ranged from less than 20% in Tajikistan and Peru to over 70% in Ethiopia and Chad, with a mean of 43% for the most recent surveys in the 54 countries. Large intracountry differences were noted, with a country mean coverage gap of 54% for the poorest quintiles of the population and 29% for the wealthiest. Differences between the poorest and the wealthiest were largest for the maternal and newborn health intervention area and smallest for immunisation. In 40 countries with more than one survey, the coverage gap had decreased by an average of 0.9 percentage points per year since the early 1990s. Declines greater than 2 percentage points per year were seen in only three countries after 1995: Cambodia, Mozambique, and Nepal. Country inequity patterns were remarkably persistant over time, with only gradual changes from top inequity (disproportionately smaller gap for the wealthiest) in countries with coverage gaps exceeding 40%, to linear patterns and bottom inequity (disproportionately greater gap for the poorest) in surveys with gaps below 40%. INTERPRETATION: Despite most Countdown countries having made gradual progress since 1990, coverage gaps for key interventions remain wide and, in most such countries, the pace of decline needs to be more than doubled to reach levels of coverage of these and other interventions needed in the context of MDG 4 and 5. In general, in-country patterns of inequality are consistant and change only gradually if at all, which has implications for the targeting of interventions.

Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

Health statistics now: are we making the right investments?

Increases in international funding for health have been accompanied by accelerating demand for more and better statistics, which are needed to track performance and ensure accountability. Worldwide interest in the monitoring of development, as exemplified in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), generates pressure for high-quality and timely data for reporting on country progress. This rapid escalation of demand has exposed major gaps in the supply of health statistics for developing countries but also provides major opportunities to increase the supply and use of sound health statistics. First, the emphasis on monitoring and evaluation is leading to proliferation of indicators and excessive reporting requirements, and needs to be refocused on systematic investments in data generation and analysis. Second, the risk of inadequate or poorly targeted investments can be kept to a minimum by understanding the causes of poor availability of health statistics, including lack of accurate measurement instruments, application of suboptimum methods of data collection, and inadequate use of methods and analyses to produce comparable estimates. Third, the preoccupation with MDGs does not take into account the rapid health transition, which implies that health statistics should systematically include a much wider array of health issues from acute infectious diseases to chronic non-communicable diseases and injuries, disaggregated by socioeconomic position. Fourth, the growing number of national household surveys, which are the main source of most population health statistics, need to be streamlined into cohesive and comprehensive country health survey programmes. Now is the time to accelerate the production and use of accurate, complete, and timely health statistics for decision-making by investing in country health information systems that should be based on an efficient and effective mix of standardised methods of data collection and analysis that meet country and international needs.

[Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER Statement]. / Diretrizes para o relato preciso e transparente de estimativas de saúde: a Declaração GATHER.

Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures. GATHER comprises a checklist of 18 items that are essential for best reporting practice. A more detailed explanation and elaboration document, describing the interpretation and rationale of each reporting item along with examples of good reporting, is available on the GATHER website (http://gather-statement.org).

Creating and validating an algorithm to measure AIDS mortality in the adult population using verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: Vital registration and cause of death reporting is incomplete in the countries in which the HIV epidemic is most severe. A reliable tool that is independent of HIV status is needed for measuring the frequency of AIDS deaths and ultimately the impact of antiretroviral therapy on mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A verbal autopsy questionnaire was administered to caregivers of 381 adults of known HIV status who died between 1998 and 2003 in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. Individuals who were HIV positive and did not die in an accident or during childbirth (74%; n = 282) were considered to have died of AIDS in the gold standard. Verbal autopsies were randomly allocated to a training dataset (n = 279) to generate classification criteria or a test dataset (n = 102) to verify criteria. A rule-based algorithm created to minimise false positives had a specificity of 66% and a sensitivity of 76%. Eight predictors (weight loss, wasting, jaundice, herpes zoster, presence of abscesses or sores, oral candidiasis, acute respiratory tract infections, and vaginal tumours) were included in the algorithm. In the test dataset of verbal autopsies, 69% of deaths were correctly classified as AIDS/non-AIDS, and it was not necessary to invoke a differential diagnosis of tuberculosis. Presence of any one of these criteria gave a post-test probability of AIDS death of 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of verbal autopsy data in this rural Zimbabwean population revealed a distinct pattern of signs and symptoms associated with AIDS mortality. Using these signs and symptoms, demographic surveillance data on AIDS deaths may allow for the estimation of AIDS mortality and even HIV prevalence.

The role of behavioral data in HIV surveillance.

This paper reviews the ways in which data on sexual behavior can contribute to the understanding of HIV prevalence trends based on sentinel surveillance, building on work presented at a meeting on new strategies for HIV/AIDS surveillance in resource-constrained countries, held in Addis Ababa in January 2004. A key component of second-generation surveillance is the collection of data on the behaviors and background characteristics that may influence the course of the HIV epidemic in a population. However, the most appropriate methods for the collection and analysis of these data for various types of epidemic have yet to be established. A conceptual framework is presented outlining the relationships between background characteristics, behaviors and HIV infection. The different methods used to collect data on HIV infection, risk behaviors and background characteristics in generalized and concentrated epidemics are reviewed, including population-based surveys, and surveillance in high- and low-risk groups. The various biases inherent in different approaches are discussed. The implications of linking data at the individual and community levels are explored and recommendations made concerning appropriate analytical approaches, drawing on an example of a pilot study that linked biological and behavioral surveillance in Tanzanian antenatal clinics. The paper concludes with recommendations for the methods and frequency with which to collect the data required for second-generation HIV surveillance.

New strategies for HIV surveillance in resource-constrained settings: an overview.

Additional funding recently became available to help resource-constrained countries scale up their HIV treatment and prevention activities. This increased funding is accompanied by an increased demand for accountability from stakeholders. Many countries will need to make substantial improvements in their current HIV surveillance methods to monitor the collective national impact of these treatment and prevention initiatives. However, whereas most resource-constrained countries have monitored the prevalence of HIV, they have collected little information on other events in the HIV disease process, such as HIV incidence, rate of HIV drug resistance, number of deaths due to AIDS and only modest emphasis has been placed on AIDS reporting in generalized epidemics, resulting in severe underreporting. In addition, data on mortality trends are often not gathered. Furthermore, less than half of the countries with low-level/concentrated epidemics have tailored their surveillance systems to the local epidemic, behavioral surveillance is often not present, an integrated analysis of data is not widespread, and data are rarely used to inform policy. In January 2004, a conference was convened in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to examine new strategies for surveillance in resource-constrained countries, and their use in monitoring and evaluating HIV activities. This supplement summarizes the newest approaches and lessons learned for HIV/AIDS surveillance, based on presentations and discussions from that conference. This article provides an overview of HIV/AIDS surveillance in resource-constrained settings and discusses the history, current approaches, and future directions for HIV/AIDS surveillance in generalized and low-level/concentrated epidemics.

HIV prevalence and trends in sub-Saharan Africa: no decline and large subregional differences.

BACKGROUND: Expansion of HIV surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa is leading to downward adjustments to the size of the AIDS epidemic. However, only analysis of surveillance data from the same populations over time can provide insight into trends of HIV prevalence. We have used data from the same antenatal clinics to document recent empirical trends. METHODS: We collated data from antenatal clinics on HIV prevalence between 1997 and 2003. Data were obtained from 140?000 pregnant women attending more than 300 antenatal clinics in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, long-term trend data are available for 57 urban areas and provinces. FINDINGS: Median HIV prevalence in 148 antenatal clinic sites in southern Africa increased from 21.3% (IQR 11.5-28.2%) in 1997/98 to 23.8% (15.6-29.2%) in 2002. At more than half the sites (58%) an increase of at least one-tenth was noted, but at a fifth of sites, prevalence dropped by at least one-tenth. In eastern Africa, median HIV prevalence decreased from 12.9% (7.0-16.9%) in 1997/98 to 8.5% (5.3-13.0%) in 2002, with prevalence rising in four (7%) sites, but falling at 25 (43%) sites. In west Africa, median HIV prevalence was 3.5% (2.2-5.9%) and 3.2% (2.3-6.1%) for 1997/98 and 2002, respectively, with reductions and increases in prevalence being noted in equal proportions. The long-term trends in urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa show a similar pattern, with increasing evidence of stabilisation during the past 2-3 years compared with the previous decade. INTERPRETATION: Evidence from surveillance of mostly urban antenatal clinic attendees indicates that the growth in the AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has levelled off since the late 1990s but only eastern Africa shows a decline in HIV prevalence. Very large differences persist between subregions. Workers planning a response to the AIDS epidemic must take more careful consideration of these variations to allow locally appropriate responses to the epidemic.

Transmission of HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa and effect of elimination of unsafe injections.

During the past year, a group has argued that unsafe injections are a major if not the main mode of HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. We review the main arguments used to question the epidemiological interpretations on the lead role of unsafe sex in HIV-1 transmission, and conclude there is no compelling evidence that unsafe injections are a predominant mode of HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, though there is a clear need to eliminate all unsafe injections, epidemiological evidence indicates that sexual transmission continues to be by far the major mode of spread of HIV-1 in the region. Increased efforts are needed to reduce sexual transmission of HIV-1.

Orphanhood and childcare patterns in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of national surveys from 40 countries.

OBJECTIVE: Assess the impact of AIDS on prevalence of orphanhood and care patterns. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of nationally representative household surveys from 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Overall 9% of children under 15 years have lost at least one parent in sub-Saharan Africa. On average one in six households with children are caring for orphans. Orphans more frequently live in households that are female-headed, larger, and have a less favourable dependency ratio. The head of the household is considerably older. Child caring practices differ between countries, and between non-orphans and orphans. Based on the country medians, almost nine out of 10 non-orphans live with their mother and eight out of 10 non-orphans live with their father. Single orphans are less likely to live with their surviving parent: three out of four paternal orphans live with their mother and just over half of maternal orphans live with their father. The (extended) family takes care of over 90% of the double orphans. Orphans are approximately 13% less likely to attend school than non-orphans. Double orphans are most likely to be disadvantaged. CONCLUSION: The epidemic has caused rapid recent increases in the prevalence of orphanhood. Prevailing childcare patterns have dealt with large numbers of orphans in the past, and to date there is no consistent evidence that this system is not absorbing the increase in orphans on a large scale. Yet, there is some evidence that orphans as a group are especially vulnerable, as they live in households with less favourable demographic characteristics and have lower school attendance.

Trends in HIV and sexual behaviour in a longitudinal study in a rural population in Tanzania, 1994-2000.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the trends in HIV transmission and sexual behaviour in a rural population in Africa. DESIGN: An open community cohort study with demographic surveillance and surveys of all consenting adults. METHODS: All residing adults aged 15-44 years who participated in surveys in 1994-1995, 1996-1997 and 1999-2000 were tested for HIV infection and provided information on sexual behaviour. The district AIDS control programme was the only intervention. RESULT: The prevalence of HIV among adults aged 15-44 years increased gradually from 5.9% in 1994-1995 to 6.6% in 1996-1997 and 8.1% in 1999-2000. The incidence of HIV increased from 0.8 to 1.3 per 100 person-years during 1994-1997 and 1997-2000, respectively. In spite of a modest increase in knowledge during the study period, most individuals continued to feel that they were not at risk of HIV, and sexual risk behaviour remained largely unchanged, except for a small increase in condom use. HIV transmission levels continued to be higher in the trading centre than in the nearby rural villages within this small geographical area, although differences became smaller over time. CONCLUSION: The gradual and continuing spread of HIV and the striking lack of change in sexual behaviour in this rural population suggest that the low-cost district intervention package does not appear to be adequate to stem the growth of the epidemic, and more intensive AIDS control efforts are needed.