How to design a dose-finding study using the continual reassessment method.

INTRODUCTION: The continual reassessment method (CRM) is a model-based design for phase I trials, which aims to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new therapy. The CRM has been shown to be more accurate in targeting the MTD than traditional rule-based approaches such as the 3 + 3 design, which is used in most phase I trials. Furthermore, the CRM has been shown to assign more trial participants at or close to the MTD than the 3 + 3 design. However, the CRM's uptake in clinical research has been incredibly slow, putting trial participants, drug development and patients at risk. Barriers to increasing the use of the CRM have been identified, most notably a lack of knowledge amongst clinicians and statisticians on how to apply new designs in practice. No recent tutorial, guidelines, or recommendations for clinicians on conducting dose-finding studies using the CRM are available. Furthermore, practical resources to support clinicians considering the CRM for their trials are scarce. METHODS: To help overcome these barriers, we present a structured framework for designing a dose-finding study using the CRM. We give recommendations for key design parameters and advise on conducting pre-trial simulation work to tailor the design to a specific trial. We provide practical tools to support clinicians and statisticians, including software recommendations, and template text and tables that can be edited and inserted into a trial protocol. We also give guidance on how to conduct and report dose-finding studies using the CRM. RESULTS: An initial set of design recommendations are provided to kick-start the design process. To complement these and the additional resources, we describe two published dose-finding trials that used the CRM. We discuss their designs, how they were conducted and analysed, and compare them to what would have happened under a 3 + 3 design. CONCLUSIONS: The framework and resources we provide are aimed at clinicians and statisticians new to the CRM design. Provision of key resources in this contemporary guidance paper will hopefully improve the uptake of the CRM in phase I dose-finding trials.

Survival Trends After Surgery for Acute Subdural Hematoma in Adults Over a 20-year Period.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine 30-day survival trends and prognostic factors following surgery for acute subdural hematomas (ASDHs) in England and Wales over a 20-year period. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: ASDHs are still considered the most lethal type of traumatic brain injury. It remains unclear whether the adjusted odds of survival have improved significantly over time. METHODS: Using the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database, we analyzed ASDH cases in the adult population (>16 yrs) treated surgically between 1994 and 2013. Two thousand four hundred ninety-eight eligible cases were identified. Univariable and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed, using multiple imputation for missing data. RESULTS: The cohort was 74% male with a median age of 48.9 years. Over half of patients were comatose at presentation (53%). Mechanism of injury was due to a fall (<2 m 34%, >2 m 24%), road traffic collision (25%), and other (17%). Thirty-six per cent of patients presented with polytrauma. Gross survival increased from 59% in 1994 to 1998 to 73% in 2009 to 2013. Under multivariable analysis, variables independently associated with survival were year of injury, Glasgow Coma Scale, Injury Severity Score, age, and pupil reactivity. The time interval from injury to craniotomy and direct admission to a neurosurgical unit were not found to be significant prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: A significant improvement in survival over the last 20 years was observed after controlling for multiple prognostic factors. Prospective trials and cohort studies are expected to elucidate the distribution of functional outcome in survivors.

Acetabular Fractures in older patients Intervention Trial (AceFIT): a feasibility triple-arm randomized controlled study.

Aims: To assess the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compares three treatments for acetabular fractures in older patients: surgical fixation, surgical fixation and hip arthroplasty (fix-and-replace), and non-surgical treatment. Methods: Patients were recruited from seven UK NHS centres and randomized to a three-arm pilot trial if aged older than 60 years and had a displaced acetabular fracture. Feasibility outcomes included patients' willingness to participate, clinicians' capability to recruit, and dropout rates. The primary clinical outcome measure was the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire (EQ-5D) at six months. Secondary outcomes were Oxford Hip Score, Disability Rating Index, blood loss, and radiological and mobility assessments. Results: Between December 2017 and December 2019, 60 patients were recruited (median age 77.4 years, range 63.3 to 88.5) (39/21 M/F ratio). At final nine-month follow-up, 4/60 (7%) had withdrawn, 4/60 (7%) had died, and one had been lost to follow-up; a 98% response rate (50/51) was achieved for the EQ-5D questionnaire. Four deaths were recorded during the three-year trial period: three in the non-surgical treatment group and one in the fix-and-replace group. Conclusion: This study has shown a full-scale RCT to be feasible, but will need international recruitment. The Acetabular Fractures in older patients Intervention Trial (AceFIT) has informed the design of a multinational RCT sample size of 1,474 or 1,974 patients for a minimal clinically important difference of 0.06 on EQ-5D, with a power of 0.8 or 0.9, and loss to follow-up of 20%. This observed patient cohort comprises a medically complex group requiring multidisciplinary care; surgeon, anaesthetist, and ortho-geriatrician input is needed to optimize recovery and rehabilitation.

Innate Lymphoid Cells Promote Recovery of Ventricular Function After Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Innate lymphoid cells type 2 (ILC2s) play critical homeostatic functions in peripheral tissues. ILC2s reside in perivascular niches and limit atherosclerosis development. OBJECTIVES: ILC2s also reside in the pericardium but their role in postischemic injury is unknown. METHODS: We examined the role of ILC2 in a mouse model of myocardial infarction (MI), and compared mice with or without genetic deletion of ILC2. We determined infarct size using histology and heart function using echocardiography. We assessed cardiac ILC2 using flow cytometry and RNA sequencing. Based on these data, we devised a therapeutic strategy to activate ILC2 in mice with acute MI, using exogenous interleukin (IL)-2. We also assessed the ability of low-dose IL-2 to activate ILC2 in a double-blind randomized clinical trial of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). RESULTS: We found that ILC2 levels were increased in pericardial adipose tissue after experimental MI, and genetic ablation of ILC2 impeded the recovery of heart function. RNA sequencing revealed distinct transcript signatures in ILC2, and pointed to IL-2 axis as a major upstream regulator. Treatment of T-cell-deficient mice with IL-2 (to activate ILC2) significantly improved the recovery of heart function post-MI. Administration of low-dose IL-2 to patients with ACS led to activation of circulating ILC2, with significant increase in circulating IL-5, a prototypic ILC2-derived cytokine. CONCLUSIONS: ILC2s promote cardiac healing and improve the recovery of heart function after MI in mice. Activation of ILC2 using low-dose IL-2 could be a novel therapeutic strategy to promote a reparative response after MI.

Mechanisms Underlying Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Receptor Inhibition-Induced Hypertension: The HYPAZ Trial.

[Figure: see text].

Estimating causal effects using prior information on nontrial treatments.

BACKGROUND: Departures from randomized treatments complicate the analysis of many randomized controlled trials. Intention-to-treat analysis estimates the effect of being allocated to treatment. It is now possible to estimate the effect of receiving treatment without assuming comparability of groups defined by actual treatment. However, the methodology is largely confined to trials where the only treatment changes were switches to other trial treatments. PURPOSE: To propose a method for comparing the effects of receiving trial treatments in an active-controlled clinical trial where some participants received nontrial treatments and others received no treatment at all, and to illustrate the method in the PENTA 5 trial in HIV-infected children. METHODS: We combine the instrumental variables approach, which forms unbiased estimating equations based on the randomization but does not fully identify the contrasts of trial treatment effects, with prior information about the distribution of possible effects of nontrial treatments and of one trial treatment; we do not need to use prior information about the comparisons of trial treatments. Prior information in PENTA 5 was elicited from the investigators. RESULTS: In PENTA 5, the prior information suggested that all treatments were beneficial, but there was uncertainty about the degree of benefit. Allowing for this prior information changed point estimates and increased standard errors compared with ignoring nontrial treatments. LIMITATIONS: The method depends on the correct specification of the causal effect of treatment: in PENTA 5, this assumed a linear effect of dose and no interactions between treatments. This specification is hard to check from the data but can be explored in sensitivity analyses. Prior information would be better derived from the literature whenever possible. CONCLUSIONS: The use of partial prior information gives a way to adjust for complex patterns of departures from randomized treatments. It should be useful in all trials where nontrial treatments are used and in active-controlled trials where trial treatments are not universally used.

Applying physical science techniques and CERN technology to an unsolved problem in radiation treatment for cancer: the multidisciplinary 'VoxTox' research programme.

The VoxTox research programme has applied expertise from the physical sciences to the problem of radiotherapy toxicity, bringing together expertise from engineering, mathematics, high energy physics (including the Large Hadron Collider), medical physics and radiation oncology. In our initial cohort of 109 men treated with curative radiotherapy for prostate cancer, daily image guidance computed tomography (CT) scans have been used to calculate delivered dose to the rectum, as distinct from planned dose, using an automated approach. Clinical toxicity data have been collected, allowing us to address the hypothesis that delivered dose provides a better predictor of toxicity than planned dose.

Systematic overview of preoperative (neoadjuvant) chemoradiotherapy trials in oesophageal cancer: evidence of a radiation and chemotherapy dose response.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Numerous trials have shown that pathological complete response (pCR) following preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and surgery for oesophageal cancer is associated with improved survival. However, different radiotherapy doses and fractionations and chemotherapy drugs, doses and scheduling were used, which may account for the differences in observed pCR and survival rates. A dose-response relationship may exist between radiotherapy and chemotherapy dose and pCR. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Trials using a single radiotherapy and chemotherapy regimen (5FU, cisplatin or mitomycin C-based) and providing information on patient numbers, age, resection and pCR rates were eligible. The endpoint used was pCR and the covariates analysed were prescribed radiotherapy dose, radiotherapy dosexdose per fraction, radiotherapy treatment time, prescribed chemotherapy (5FU, cisplatin and mitomycin C) dose and median age of patients within the trial. The model used was a multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Twenty-six trials were included (1335 patients) in which 311 patients (24%) achieved pCR. The probability of pCR improved with increasing dose of radiotherapy (P=0.006), 5FU (P=0.003) and cisplatin (P=0.018). Increasing radiotherapy treatment time (P=0.035) and increasing median age (P=0.019) reduced the probability of pCR. The estimated alpha/beta ratio of oesophageal cancer was 4.9 Gy (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-17 Gy) and the estimated radiotherapy dose lost per day was 0.59 Gy (95% CI 0.18-0.99 Gy). One gram per square metre of 5FU was estimated to be equivalent to 1.9 Gy (95% CI 0.8-5.2 Gy) of radiation and 100mg/m2 of cisplatin was estimated to be equivalent to 7.2 Gy (95% CI 2.1-28 Gy). Mitomycin C dose did not appear to influence pCR rates (P=0.60). CONCLUSIONS: There was evidence of a dose-response relationship between increasing protocol prescribed radiotherapy, 5FU and cisplatin dose and pCR. Additional significant factors were radiotherapy treatment time and median age of patients within the trial.

Chronic dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibition with sitagliptin is associated with sustained protection against ischemic left ventricular dysfunction in a pilot study of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The incretin hormone, glucagon-like peptide-1, promotes myocardial glucose uptake and may improve myocardial tolerance to ischemia. Endogenous glucagon-like peptide-1 (7-36) is augmented by pharmacological inhibition of dipeptidyl peptidase-4. We investigated whether chronic dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibition by sitagliptin protected against ischemic left ventricular dysfunction during dobutamine stress in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 19 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus underwent dobutamine stress echocardiography with tissue Doppler imaging on 2 separate occasions: the first (control) while receiving oral hypoglycemic agents, and the second after the addition of sitagliptin (100 mg once daily) for ≈4 weeks. Sitagliptin increased plasma glucagon-like peptide-1 (7-36) levels and, at peak stress, enhanced both global (ejection fraction, 70.5±7.0 versus 65.7±8.0%; P<0.0001; mitral annular systolic velocity, 11.7±2.6 versus 10.9±2.3 cm/s; P=0.01) and regional left ventricular function, assessed by peak systolic velocity and strain rate in 12 paired, nonapical segments. This was predominantly because of a cardioprotective effect on ischemic segments (strain rate in ischemic segments, -2.27±0.65 versus -1.98±0.58 s(-1); P=0.001), whereas no effect was seen in nonischemic segments (-2.19±0.48 versus -2.18±0.54 s(-1); P=0.87). At 30 minutes recovery, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibition mitigated the postischemic stunning seen in the control scan. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor therapy with sitagliptin to the treatment regime of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease is associated with a sustained improvement in myocardial performance during dobutamine stress and a reduction in postischemic stunning. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.isrctn.org. Unique identifier ISRCTN61646154.

Likelihood estimation for a longitudinal negative binomial regression model with missing outcomes.

Joint damage in psoriatic arthritis can be measured by clinical and radiological methods, the former being done more frequently during longitudinal follow-up of patients. Motivated by the need to compare findings based on the different methods with different observation patterns, we consider longitudinal data where the outcome variable is a cumulative total of counts that can be unobserved when other, informative, explanatory variables are recorded. We demonstrate how to calculate the likelihood for such data when it is assumed that the increment in the cumulative total follows a discrete distribution with a location parameter that depends on a linear function of explanatory variables. An approach to the incorporation of informative observation is suggested. We present analyses based on an observational database from a psoriatic arthritis clinic. Although the use of the new statistical methodology has relatively little effect in this example, simulation studies indicate that the method can provide substantial improvements in bias and coverage in some situations where there is an important time varying explanatory variable.

Instrumental variables and interactions in the causal analysis of a complex clinical trial.

We consider the application of instrumental variable techniques in a longitudinal clinical trial in paediatric HIV/AIDS, with a substantial degree of non-compliance to randomized treatment (Nelfinavir versus placebo) and with left censoring of the outcome variable (HIV RNA concentration). We consider in detail the assumptions and implications behind the inclusion and exclusion of interactions between randomized arm and baseline covariates in modelling actual treatment received, and between treatment and baseline covariates in modelling outcome. Estimated treatment effects were sensitive to inclusion of interactions, and we show how such sensitivity can be explored and explained.

Predictors for radiological damage in psoriatic arthritis: results from a single centre.

BACKGROUND: The predictors for the development of clinical damage in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have been reported previously. AIM: To identify predictors for radiological damage in PsA. METHODS: Patients followed-up prospectively according to a standard protocol at The University of Toronto between 1978 and 2004 were included. The principal outcome was the change in the number of damaged joints between visits, both clinically and radiologically. Explanatory variables considered included: sex, age, duration of arthritis at first visit, time in clinic, number of tender swollen joints, functional class, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), concentration of drugs and, to adjust for within-patient correlation, the number of clinically damaged joints at the first of the two visits over which change was observed. RESULTS: At the time of this analysis, 625 patients were recorded in the database. Multivariate analyses of predictors for both clinical and radiological damage show that age, time in clinic, initial ESR, number of tender and swollen joints at previous visit, and number of deformed joints at previous visit were related to both clinical and radiological damage. CONCLUSIONS: The number of actively inflamed joints, particularly the number of swollen joints, was associated with the progression of radiological damage. The higher the number of previously damaged joints, the higher the risk for progression of damage. Thus, patients with PsA need to be treated, even in the presence of damage as long as there is evidence of inflammation, to prevent the progression of damage.

Bounds on the covariate-time transformation for competing-risks survival analysis.

A fundamental problem with the latent-time framework in competing risks is the lack of identifiability of the joint distribution. Given observed covariates along with assumptions as to the form of their effect, then identifiability may obtain. However it is difficult to check any assumptions about form since a more general model may lose identifiability. This paper considers a general framework for modelling the effect of covariates, with the single assumption that the copula dependency structure of the latent times is invariant to the covariates. This framework consists of a set of functions: the covariate-time transformations. The main result produces bounds on these functions, which are derived solely from the crude incidence functions. These bounds are a useful model checking tool when considering the covariate-time transformation resulting from any particular set of further assumptions. An example is given where the widely-used assumption of independent competing risks is checked.