Divergence of Arctic shrub growth associated with sea ice decline.

Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) is declining at an accelerating rate with a wide range of ecological consequences. However, determining sea ice effects on tundra vegetation remains a challenge. In this study, we examined the universality or lack thereof in tundra shrub growth responses to changes in SIE and summer climate across the Pan-Arctic, taking advantage of 23 tundra shrub-ring chronologies from 19 widely distributed sites (56°N to 83°N). We show a clear divergence in shrub growth responses to SIE that began in the mid-1990s, with 39% of the chronologies showing declines and 57% showing increases in radial growth (decreasers and increasers, respectively). Structural equation models revealed that declining SIE was associated with rising air temperature and precipitation for increasers and with increasingly dry conditions for decreasers. Decreasers tended to be from areas of the Arctic with lower summer precipitation and their growth decline was related to decreases in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Our findings suggest that moisture limitation, associated with declining SIE, might inhibit the positive effects of warming on shrub growth over a considerable part of the terrestrial Arctic, thereby complicating predictions of vegetation change and future tundra productivity.

Long-term changes in herbivore community and vegetation impact of wild and domestic herbivores across Iceland.

Changes in wild and domestic herbivore populations significantly impact extensive grazing systems, particularly in low productive environments, where increasing wild herbivore populations are perceived as a threat to farming. To assess the magnitude of these changes in Iceland, we compiled time series on herbivore populations from 1986 to 2020 and estimated changes in species densities, metabolic biomass, and consumption of plant biomass in improved lands and unimproved rangelands. We compared estimates of consumption rates to past and present net primary production. Overall, the herbivore community composition shifted from livestock to wildlife dominated. However, wild herbivores only contributed a small fraction (14%) of the total herbivore metabolic biomass and consumption (4-7%), and livestock dominated the overall herbivore biomass. These insights highlight the necessity of developing improved local integrated management for both wild and domestic herbivores where they coexist.

Herbivore species coexistence in changing rangeland ecosystems: First high resolution national open-source and open-access ensemble models for Iceland.

Rangeland ecosystems are changing worldwide with the abandonment of extensive pastoralism practices and greater interest for species coexistence. However, the lack of compiled data on current changes in the abundance and distribution of herbivores challenges rangeland management decisions. Here we gathered and made available for the first time the most extensive set of occurrence data for rangeland herbivores in Iceland in an Open Access framework for transparent and repeatable science-based decisions. We mapped fine scale species distribution overlap to identify areas at risk for wildlife-livestock conflict and overgrazing. Nationwide and long term (1861-2021) occurrence data from 8 independent datasets were used alongside 11 predictor raster layers ("Big Data") to data mine and map the distribution of the domestic sheep (Ovis aries), feral reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus), pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus), and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta islandorum) over the country during the summer. Using algorithms of Maxent in R, RandomForest, TreeNet (stochastic gradient boosting) and MARS (Splines) in Minitab-SPM 8.3, we computed 1 km pixel predictions from machine learning-based ensemble models. Our high-resolution models were tested with alternative datasets, and Area Under the Curve (AUC) values that indicated good (reindeer: 0.8817 and rock ptarmigan: 0.8844) to high model accuracy (sheep: 0.9708 and pink-footed goose: 0.9143). Whenever possible, source data and models are made available online and described with ISO-compliant metadata. Our results illustrate that sheep and pink-footed geese have the greatest overlap in distribution with potential implication for wildlife-livestock conflicts and continued ecosystem degradation even under diminishing livestock abundance at higher elevation. These nationwide models and data are a global asset and a first step in making available the best data for science-based sustainable decision-making about national herbivores affecting species coexistence and environmental management.