Tuberculosis bacillary load, an early marker of disease severity: the utility of tuberculosis Molecular Bacterial Load Assay.

In this comparative biomarker study, we analysed 1768 serial sputum samples from 178 patients at 4 sites in Southeast Africa. We show that tuberculosis Molecular Bacterial Load Assay (TB-MBLA) reduces time-to-TB-bacillary-load-result from days/weeks by culture to hours and detects early patient treatment response. By day 14 of treatment, 5% of patients had cleared bacillary load to zero, rising to 58% by 12th week of treatment. Fall in bacillary load correlated with mycobacterial growth indicator tube culture time-to-positivity (Spearmans r=-0.51, 95% CI (-0.56 to -0.46), p<0.0001). Patients with high pretreatment bacillary burdens (above the cohort bacillary load average of 5.5log10eCFU/ml) were less likely to convert-to-negative by 8th week of treatment than those with a low burden (below cohort bacillary load average), p=0.0005, HR 3.1, 95% CI (1.6 to 5.6) irrespective of treatment regimen. TB-MBLA distinguished the bactericidal effect of regimens revealing the moxifloxacin-20 mg rifampicin regimen produced a shorter time to bacillary clearance compared with standard-of-care regimen, p=0.008, HR 2.9, 95% CI (1.3 to 6.7). Our data show that the TB-MBLA could inform clinical decision making in real-time and expedite drug TB clinical trials.

Modelling the effects of environmental heterogeneity within the lung on the tuberculosis life-cycle.

Progress in shortening the duration of tuberculosis (TB) treatment is hampered by the lack of a predictive model that accurately reflects the diverse environment within the lung. This is important as TB has been shown to produce distinct localisations to different areas of the lung during different disease stages, with the environmental heterogeneity within the lung of factors such as air ventilation, blood perfusion and oxygen tension believed to contribute to the apical localisation witnessed during the post-primary form of the disease. Building upon our previous model of environmental lung heterogeneity, we present a networked metapopulation model that simulates TB across the whole lung, incorporating these notions of environmental heterogeneity across the whole TB life-cycle to show how different stages of the disease are influenced by different environmental and immunological factors. The alveolar tissue in the lung is divided into distinct patches, with each patch representing a portion of the total tissue and containing environmental attributes that reflect the internal conditions at that location. We include populations of bacteria and immune cells in various states, and events are included which determine how the members of the model interact with each other and the environment. By allowing some of these events to be dependent on environmental attributes, we create a set of heterogeneous dynamics, whereby the location of the tissue within the lung determines the disease pathological events that occur there. Our results show that the environmental heterogeneity within the lung is a plausible driving force behind the apical localisation during post-primary disease. After initial infection, bacterial levels will grow in the initial infection location at the base of the lung until an adaptive immune response is initiated. During this period, bacteria are able to disseminate and create new lesions throughout the lung. During the latent stage, the lesions that are situated towards the apex are the largest in size, and once a post-primary immune-suppressing event occurs, it is the uppermost lesions that reach the highest levels of bacterial proliferation. Our sensitivity analysis also shows that it is the differential in blood perfusion, causing reduced immune activity towards the apex, which has the biggest influence of disease outputs.

Modelling the effects of bacterial cell state and spatial location on tuberculosis treatment: Insights from a hybrid multiscale cellular automaton model.

If improvements are to be made in tuberculosis (TB) treatment, an increased understanding of disease in the lung is needed. Studies have shown that bacteria in a less metabolically active state, associated with the presence of lipid bodies, are less susceptible to antibiotics, and recent results have highlighted the disparity in concentration of different compounds into lesions. Treatment success therefore depends critically on the responses of the individual bacteria that constitute the infection. We propose a hybrid, individual-based approach that analyses spatio-temporal dynamics at the cellular level, linking the behaviour of individual bacteria and host cells with the macroscopic behaviour of the microenvironment. The individual elements (bacteria, macrophages and T cells) are modelled using cellular automaton (CA) rules, and the evolution of oxygen, drugs and chemokine dynamics are incorporated in order to study the effects of the microenvironment in the pathological lesion. We allow bacteria to switch states depending on oxygen concentration, which affects how they respond to treatment. This is the first multiscale model of its type to consider both oxygen-driven phenotypic switching of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis and antibiotic treatment. Using this model, we investigate the role of bacterial cell state and of initial bacterial location on treatment outcome. We demonstrate that when bacteria are located further away from blood vessels, less favourable outcomes are more likely, i.e. longer time before infection is contained/cleared, treatment failure or later relapse. We also show that in cases where bacteria remain at the end of simulations, the organisms tend to be slower-growing and are often located within granulomas, surrounded by caseous material.

The relationship between Mycobacterium tuberculosis MGIT time to positivity and cfu in sputum samples demonstrates changing bacterial phenotypes potentially reflecting the impact of chemotherapy on critical sub-populations.

OBJECTIVES: The relationship between cfu and Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) time to positivity (TTP) is uncertain. We attempted to understand this relationship and create a mathematical model to relate these two methods of determining mycobacterial load. METHODS: Sequential bacteriological load data from clinical trials determined by MGIT and cfu were collected and mathematical models derived. All model fittings were conducted in the R statistical software environment (version 3.0.2), using the lm and nls functions. RESULTS: TTP showed a negative correlation with log10 cfu on all 14 days of the study. There was an increasing gradient of the regression line and y-intercept as treatment progressed. There was also a trend towards an increasing gradient with higher doses of rifampicin. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that there is a population of mycobacterial cells that are more numerous when detected in liquid than on solid medium. Increasing doses of rifampicin differentially kill this group of organisms. These findings support the idea that increased doses of rifampicin are more effective.

Use of Individual-Based Mathematical Modelling to Understand More About Antibiotic Resistance Within-Host.

To model complex systems, individual-based models (IBMs), sometimes called "agent-based models" (ABMs), describe a simplification of the system through an adequate representation of the elements. IBMs simulate the actions and interaction of discrete individuals/agents within a system in order to discover the pattern of behavior that comes from these interactions. Examples of individuals/agents in biological systems are individual immune cells and bacteria that act independently with their own unique attributes defined by behavioral rules. In IBMs, each of these agents resides in a spatial environment and interactions are guided by predefined rules. These rules are often simple and can be easily implemented. It is expected that following the interaction guided by these rules we will have a better understanding of agent-agent interaction as well as agent-environment interaction. Stochasticity described by probability distributions must be accounted for. Events that seldom occur such as the accumulation of rare mutations can be easily modeled.Thus, IBMs are able to track the behavior of each individual/agent within the model while also obtaining information on the results of their collective behaviors. The influence of impact of one agent with another can be captured, thus allowing a full representation of both direct and indirect causation on the aggregate results. This means that important new insights can be gained and hypotheses tested.

Within-Host Mathematical Models of Antibiotic Resistance.

Mathematical models have been used to study the spread of infectious diseases from person to person. More recently studies are developing within-host modeling which provides an understanding of how pathogens-bacteria, fungi, parasites, or viruses-develop, spread, and evolve inside a single individual and their interaction with the host's immune system.Such models have the potential to provide a more detailed and complete description of the pathogenesis of diseases within-host and identify other influencing factors that may not be detected otherwise. Mathematical models can be used to aid understanding of the global antibiotic resistance (ABR) crisis and identify new ways of combating this threat.ABR occurs when bacteria respond to random or selective pressures and adapt to new environments through the acquisition of new genetic traits. This is usually through the acquisition of a piece of DNA from other bacteria, a process called horizontal gene transfer (HGT), the modification of a piece of DNA within a bacterium, or through. Bacteria have evolved mechanisms that enable them to respond to environmental threats by mutation, and horizontal gene transfer (HGT): conjugation; transduction; and transformation. A frequent mechanism of HGT responsible for spreading antibiotic resistance on the global scale is conjugation, as it allows the direct transfer of mobile genetic elements (MGEs). Although there are several MGEs, the most important MGEs which promote the development and rapid spread of antimicrobial resistance genes in bacterial populations are plasmids and transposons. Each of the resistance-spread-mechanisms mentioned above can be modeled allowing us to understand the process better and to define strategies to reduce resistance.

Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems.

Mathematical modellers model infectious disease dynamics at different scales. Within-host models represent the spread of pathogens inside an individual, whilst between-host models track transmission between individuals. However, pathogen dynamics at one scale affect those at another. This has led to the development of multiscale models that connect within-host and between-host dynamics. In this article, we systematically review the literature on multiscale infectious disease modelling according to PRISMA guidelines, dividing previously published models into five categories governing their methodological approaches (Garira (2017)), explaining their benefits and limitations. We provide a primer on developing multiscale models of infectious diseases.

A simple label-free method reveals bacterial growth dynamics and antibiotic action in real-time.

Understanding the response of bacteria to environmental stress is hampered by the relative insensitivity of methods to detect growth. This means studies of antibiotic resistance and other physiological methods often take 24 h or longer. We developed and tested a scattered light and detection system (SLIC) to address this challenge, establishing the limit of detection, and time to positive detection of the growth of small inocula. We compared the light-scattering of bacteria grown in varying high and low nutrient liquid medium and the growth dynamics of two closely related organisms. Scattering data was modelled using Gompertz and Broken Stick equations. Bacteria were also exposed meropenem, gentamicin and cefoxitin at a range of concentrations and light scattering of the liquid culture was captured in real-time. We established the limit of detection for SLIC to be between 10 and 100 cfu mL-1 in a volume of 1-2 mL. Quantitative measurement of the different nutrient effects on bacteria were obtained in less than four hours and it was possible to distinguish differences in the growth dynamics of Klebsiella pneumoniae 1705 possessing the BlaKPC betalactamase vs. strain 1706 very rapidly. There was a dose dependent difference in the speed of action of each antibiotic tested at supra-MIC concentrations. The lethal effect of gentamicin and lytic effect of meropenem, and slow bactericidal effect of cefoxitin were demonstrated in real time. Significantly, strains that were sensitive to antibiotics could be identified in seconds. This research demonstrates the critical importance of improving the sensitivity of bacterial detection. This results in more rapid assessment of susceptibility and the ability to capture a wealth of data on the growth dynamics of bacteria. The rapid rate at which killing occurs at supra-MIC concentrations, an important finding that needs to be incorporated into pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. Importantly, enhanced sensitivity of bacterial detection opens the possibility of susceptibility results being reportable clinically in a few minutes, as we have demonstrated.

Model Integration in Computational Biology: The Role of Reproducibility, Credibility and Utility.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of disease transmission has become a cornerstone of key state decisions. To advance the state-of-the-art host viral modeling to handle future pandemics, many scientists working on related issues assembled to discuss the topics. These discussions exposed the reproducibility crisis that leads to inability to reuse and integrate models. This document summarizes these discussions, presents difficulties, and mentions existing efforts towards future solutions that will allow future model utility and integration. We argue that without addressing these challenges, scientists will have diminished ability to build, disseminate, and implement high-impact multi-scale modeling that is needed to understand the health crises we face.

A spatially heterogeneous network-based metapopulation software model applied to the simulation of a pulmonary tuberculosis infection.

Tuberculosis (TB) is an ancient disease that, although curable, still accounts for over 1 million deaths worldwide. Shortening treatment time is an important area of research but is hampered by the lack of models that mimic the full range of human pathology. TB shows distinct localisations during different stages of infection, the reasons for which are poorly understood. Greater understanding of how heterogeneity within the human lung influences disease progression may hold the key to improving treatment efficiency and reducing treatment times. In this work, we present a novel in silico software model which uses a networked metapopulation incorporating both spatial heterogeneity and dissemination possibilities to simulate a TB infection over the whole lung and associated lymphatics. The entire population of bacteria and immune cells is split into a network of patches: members interact within patches and are able to move between them. Patches and edges of the lung network include their own environmental attributes which influence the dynamics of interactions between the members of the subpopulations of the patches and the translocation of members along edges. In this work, we detail the initial findings of a whole-organ model that incorporates distinct spatial heterogeneity features which are not present in standard differential equation approaches to tuberculosis modelling. We show that the inclusion of heterogeneity within the lung landscape when modelling TB disease progression has significant outcomes on the bacterial load present: a greater differential of oxygen, perfusion and ventilation between the apices and the basal regions of the lungs creates micro-environments at the apex that are more preferential for bacteria, due to increased oxygen availability and reduced immune activity, leading to a greater overall bacterial load present once latency is established. These findings suggest that further whole-organ modelling incorporating more sophisticated heterogeneities within the environment and complex lung topologies will provide more insight into the environments in which TB bacteria persist and thus help develop new treatments which are factored towards these environmental conditions.

Systems Medicine and Infection.

By using a systems-based approach, mathematical and computational techniques can be used to develop models that describe the important mechanisms involved in infectious diseases. An iterative approach to model development allows new discoveries to continually improve the model and ultimately increase the accuracy of predictions.SIR models are used to describe epidemics, predicting the extent and spread of disease. Genome-wide genotyping and sequencing technologies can be used to identify the biological mechanisms behind diseases. These tools help to build strategies for disease prevention and treatment, an example being the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa where these techniques were deployed.HIV is a complex disease where much is still to be learned about the virus and the best effective treatment. With basic mathematical modeling techniques, significant discoveries have been made over the last 20 years. With recent technological advances, the computational resources now available, and interdisciplinary cooperation, further breakthroughs are inevitable.In TB, modeling has traditionally been empirical in nature, with clinical data providing the fuel for this top-down approach. Recently, projects have begun to use data derived from laboratory experiments and clinical trials to create mathematical models that describe the mechanisms responsible for the disease.A systems medicine approach to infection modeling helps identify important biological questions that then direct future experiments, the results of which improve the model in an iterative cycle. This means that data from several model systems can be integrated and synthesized to explore complex biological systems.