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1.
Malar J ; 23(1): 27, 2024 Jan 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38238806

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Though Plasmodium vivax is the second most common malaria species to infect humans, it has not traditionally been considered a major human health concern in central Africa given the high prevalence of the human Duffy-negative phenotype that is believed to prevent infection. Increasing reports of asymptomatic and symptomatic infections in Duffy-negative individuals throughout Africa raise the possibility that P. vivax is evolving to evade host resistance, but there are few parasite samples with genomic data available from this part of the world. METHODS: Whole genome sequencing of one new P. vivax isolate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was performed and used in population genomics analyses to assess how this central African isolate fits into the global context of this species. RESULTS: Plasmodium vivax from DRC is similar to other African populations and is not closely related to the non-human primate parasite P. vivax-like. Evidence is found for a duplication of the gene PvDBP and a single copy of PvDBP2. CONCLUSION: These results suggest an endemic P. vivax population is present in central Africa. Intentional sampling of P. vivax across Africa would further contextualize this sample within African P. vivax diversity and shed light on the mechanisms of infection in Duffy negative individuals. These results are limited by the uncertainty of how representative this single sample is of the larger population of P. vivax in central Africa.


Assuntos
Malária Vivax , Malária , Animais , Humanos , Plasmodium vivax/genética , Malária Vivax/parasitologia , África Central , Genômica , Sistema do Grupo Sanguíneo Duffy/genética
2.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(4): 759-766, 2022 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35213800

RESUMO

India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Incidência , Índia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2
3.
J Infect Dis ; 223(6): 1005-1014, 2021 03 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32766832

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium ovale is an understudied malaria species prevalent throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Little is known about the distribution of ovale malaria and risk factors for infection in areas of high malaria endemicity. METHODS: Using the 2013 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Demographic and Health Survey, we conducted a risk factor analysis for P. ovale infections. We evaluated geographic clustering of infections and speciated to P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri through deep sequencing. RESULTS: Of 18 149 adults tested, we detected 143 prevalent P. ovale infections (prevalence estimate 0.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], .59%-.98%). Prevalence ratios (PR) for significant risk factors were: male sex PR = 2.12 (95% CI, 1.38-3.26), coprevalent P. falciparum PR = 3.52 (95% CI, 2.06-5.99), and rural residence PR = 2.19 (95% CI, 1.31-3.66). P. ovale was broadly distributed throughout the DRC; an elevated cluster of infections was detected in the south-central region. Speciation revealed P. ovale curtisi and P. ovale wallikeri circulating throughout the country. CONCLUSIONS: P. ovale persists broadly in the DRC, a high malaria burden country. For successful elimination of all malaria species, P. ovale needs to be on the radar of malaria control programs.


Assuntos
Malária , Plasmodium ovale , Adulto , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Humanos , Malária/epidemiologia , Prevalência
4.
J Infect Dis ; 223(11): 1948-1952, 2021 06 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33057671

RESUMO

Despite evidence that older children and adolescents bear the highest burden of malaria, large malaria surveys focus on younger children. We used polymerase chain reaction data from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the Democratic Republic of Congo (including children aged <5 years and adults aged ≥15 years) and a longitudinal study in Kinshasa Province (participants aged 6 months to 98 years) to estimate malaria prevalence across age strata. We fit linear models and estimated prevalences for each age category; adolescents aged 10-14 years had the highest prevalence. We estimate approximately 26 million polymerase chain reaction-detectable infections nationally. Adolescents and older children should be included in surveillance studies.


Assuntos
Malária , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Estudos Transversais , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Estudos Longitudinais , Malária/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem
5.
Clin Infect Dis ; 73(11): e3966-e3969, 2021 12 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33238298

RESUMO

In a cross-sectional molecular study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 78% of households had ≥1 member infected with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and/or Plasmodium ovale spp.; 47% of children and 33% of adults tested positive for ≥1 species. Risk factors varied by species and age group.


Assuntos
Malária Falciparum , Plasmodium ovale , Adulto , Criança , Estudos Transversais , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Humanos , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium ovale/genética , Plasmodium vivax , Prevalência
6.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33361308

RESUMO

Atovaquone-proguanil remains effective against multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Southeast Asia, but resistance is mediated by a single point mutation in cytochrome b (cytb) that can arise during treatment. Among 14 atovaquone-proguanil treatment failures in a clinical trial in Cambodia, only one recrudescence harbored the cytb mutation Y268C. Deep sequencing did not detect the mutation at baseline or in the first 3 days of treatment, suggesting that it arose de novo Further sequencing across cytb similarly found no low-frequency cytb mutations that were up-selected from baseline to recrudescence. Copy number amplification in dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH) and cytb as markers of atovaquone tolerance was also absent. Cytb mutation played a minor role in atovaquone-proguanil treatment failures in an active comparator clinical trial.


Assuntos
Antimaláricos , Malária Falciparum , Naftoquinonas , Antimaláricos/uso terapêutico , Atovaquona/uso terapêutico , Camboja , Citocromos b/genética , Combinação de Medicamentos , Humanos , Malária Falciparum/tratamento farmacológico , Naftoquinonas/uso terapêutico , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Proguanil/uso terapêutico
7.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 146, 2021 06 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34144715

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. METHODS: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. RESULTS: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/terapia , Humanos , Programas de Imunização/métodos , Indonésia , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Síndrome , Vacinação/métodos , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos
8.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 321, 2020 10 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33032601

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , COVID-19 , Teste para COVID-19 , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico , Busca de Comunicante/tendências , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Quarentena/tendências , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2
9.
Malar J ; 19(1): 47, 2020 Jan 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31992305

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Tanzania's Zanzibar archipelago has made significant gains in malaria control over the last decade and is a target for malaria elimination. Despite consistent implementation of effective tools since 2002, elimination has not been achieved. Importation of parasites from outside of the archipelago is thought to be an important cause of malaria's persistence, but this paradigm has not been studied using modern genetic tools. METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to investigate the impact of importation, employing population genetic analyses of Plasmodium falciparum isolates from both the archipelago and mainland Tanzania. Ancestry, levels of genetic diversity and differentiation, patterns of relatedness, and patterns of selection between these two populations were assessed by leveraging recent advances in deconvolution of genomes from polyclonal malaria infections. RESULTS: Significant decreases in the effective population sizes were inferred in both populations that coincide with a period of decreasing malaria transmission in Tanzania. Identity by descent analysis showed that parasites in the two populations shared long segments of their genomes, on the order of 5 cM, suggesting shared ancestry within the last 10 generations. Even with limited sampling, two of isolates between the mainland and Zanzibar were identified that are related at the expected level of half-siblings, consistent with recent importation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that importation plays an important role for malaria incidence on Zanzibar and demonstrate the value of genomic approaches for identifying corridors of parasite movement to the island.


Assuntos
Malária Falciparum/prevenção & controle , Malária Falciparum/parasitologia , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Estudos de Coortes , Demografia , Biblioteca Gênica , Variação Genética , Haploidia , Haplótipos , Humanos , Incidência , Ilhas/epidemiologia , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Malária Falciparum/transmissão , Mutação , Plasmodium falciparum/classificação , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , Viagem , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma
10.
BMC Infect Dis ; 19(1): 872, 2019 Oct 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31640574

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Drug resistant malaria is a growing concern in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where previous studies indicate that parasites resistant to sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine or chloroquine are spatially clustered. This study explores longitudinal changes in spatial patterns to understand how resistant malaria may be spreading within the DRC, using samples from nation-wide population-representative surveys. METHODS: We selected 552 children with PCR-detectable Plasmodium falciparum infection and identified known variants in the pfdhps and pfcrt genes associated with resistance. We compared the proportion of mutant parasites in 2013 to those previously reported from adults in 2007, and identified risk factors for carrying a resistant allele using multivariate mixed-effects modeling. Finally, we fit a spatial-temporal model to the observed data, providing smooth allele frequency estimates over space and time. RESULTS: The proportion of co-occurring pfdhps K540E/A581G mutations increased by 16% between 2007 and 2013. The spatial-temporal model suggests that the spatial range of the pfdhps double mutants expanded over time, while the prevalence and range of pfcrt mutations remained steady. CONCLUSIONS: This study uses population-representative samples to describe the changing landscape of SP resistance within the DRC, and the persistence of chloroquine resistance. Vigilant molecular surveillance is critical for controlling the spread of resistance.


Assuntos
Antimaláricos/uso terapêutico , Resistência a Medicamentos/efeitos dos fármacos , Malária Falciparum/tratamento farmacológico , Plasmodium falciparum/efeitos dos fármacos , Adolescente , Adulto , Álcool Desidrogenase/genética , Cloroquina/uso terapêutico , Estudos Transversais , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Combinação de Medicamentos , Resistência a Medicamentos/genética , Frequência do Gene , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Malária Falciparum/parasitologia , Proteínas de Membrana Transportadoras/genética , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mutação , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Prevalência , Proteínas de Protozoários/genética , Pirimetamina/uso terapêutico , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Sulfadoxina/uso terapêutico , Adulto Jovem
11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 113(50): E8096-E8105, 2016 12 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27911780

RESUMO

Cambodia, in which both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum are endemic, has been the focus of numerous malaria-control interventions, resulting in a marked decline in overall malaria incidence. Despite this decline, the number of P vivax cases has actually increased. To understand better the factors underlying this resilience, we compared the genetic responses of the two species to recent selective pressures. We sequenced and studied the genomes of 70 P vivax and 80 P falciparum isolates collected between 2009 and 2013. We found that although P falciparum has undergone population fracturing, the coendemic P vivax population has grown undisrupted, resulting in a larger effective population size, no discernable population structure, and frequent multiclonal infections. Signatures of selection suggest recent, species-specific evolutionary differences. Particularly, in contrast to P falciparum, P vivax transcription factors, chromatin modifiers, and histone deacetylases have undergone strong directional selection, including a particularly strong selective sweep at an AP2 transcription factor. Together, our findings point to different population-level adaptive mechanisms used by P vivax and P falciparum parasites. Although population substructuring in P falciparum has resulted in clonal outgrowths of resistant parasites, P vivax may use a nuanced transcriptional regulatory approach to population maintenance, enabling it to preserve a larger, more diverse population better suited to facing selective threats. We conclude that transcriptional control may underlie P vivax's resilience to malaria control measures. Novel strategies to target such processes are likely required to eradicate P vivax and achieve malaria elimination.


Assuntos
Malária Vivax/prevenção & controle , Malária Vivax/parasitologia , Plasmodium vivax/genética , Camboja/epidemiologia , Variações do Número de Cópias de DNA , DNA de Protozoário/genética , Resistência a Medicamentos/genética , Doenças Endêmicas/prevenção & controle , Variação Genética , Genoma de Protozoário , Haplótipos , Humanos , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Malária Falciparum/parasitologia , Malária Falciparum/prevenção & controle , Malária Vivax/epidemiologia , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Seleção Genética , Especificidade da Espécie , Transcrição Gênica
12.
medRxiv ; 2024 Feb 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36865135

RESUMO

The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania, and continued local transmission. To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo District on the coastal mainland from 2016-2018. Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population on Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive for malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors.

13.
Elife ; 122024 Jun 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38935423

RESUMO

Background: The Zanzibar archipelago of Tanzania has become a low-transmission area for Plasmodium falciparum. Despite being considered an area of pre-elimination for years, achieving elimination has been difficult, likely due to a combination of imported infections from mainland Tanzania and continued local transmission. Methods: To shed light on these sources of transmission, we applied highly multiplexed genotyping utilizing molecular inversion probes to characterize the genetic relatedness of 282 P. falciparum isolates collected across Zanzibar and in Bagamoyo district on the coastal mainland from 2016 to 2018. Results: Overall, parasite populations on the coastal mainland and Zanzibar archipelago remain highly related. However, parasite isolates from Zanzibar exhibit population microstructure due to the rapid decay of parasite relatedness over very short distances. This, along with highly related pairs within shehias, suggests ongoing low-level local transmission. We also identified highly related parasites across shehias that reflect human mobility on the main island of Unguja and identified a cluster of highly related parasites, suggestive of an outbreak, in the Micheweni district on Pemba island. Parasites in asymptomatic infections demonstrated higher complexity of infection than those in symptomatic infections, but have similar core genomes. Conclusions: Our data support importation as a main source of genetic diversity and contribution to the parasite population in Zanzibar, but they also show local outbreak clusters where targeted interventions are essential to block local transmission. These results highlight the need for preventive measures against imported malaria and enhanced control measures in areas that remain receptive to malaria reemergence due to susceptible hosts and competent vectors. Funding: This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, grants R01AI121558, R01AI137395, R01AI155730, F30AI143172, and K24AI134990. Funding was also contributed from the Swedish Research Council, Erling-Persson Family Foundation, and the Yang Fund. RV acknowledges funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 program supported by the European Union. RV also acknowledges funding by Community Jameel.


Assuntos
Malária Falciparum , Plasmodium falciparum , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Plasmodium falciparum/isolamento & purificação , Malária Falciparum/transmissão , Malária Falciparum/parasitologia , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Humanos , Genótipo
14.
Vasa ; 42(2): 96-105, 2013 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23485836

RESUMO

For over fifty years, the pathogenesis of May-Thurner syndrome (MTS) has been associated with chronic left common iliac vein compression resulting in the formation of intraluminal, permanent obstructive lesions. However, despite this association, the mechanism by which compression produces these lesions is unknown. Diagnostic accuracy of MTS is critical since it often afflicts young patients requiring endovascular management. This review will focus on the historical, embryological and evolutionary description of MTS and examine its development, diagnosis, clinical management and potential diagnostic errors.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Endovasculares , Síndrome de May-Thurner/diagnóstico , Síndrome de May-Thurner/terapia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Vasculares , Procedimentos Endovasculares/instrumentação , História do Século XIX , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Síndrome de May-Thurner/embriologia , Síndrome de May-Thurner/história , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Resultado do Tratamento , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Vasculares/instrumentação , Filtros de Veia Cava
15.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 3840, 2023 06 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37380650

RESUMO

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Zâmbia/epidemiologia , Sepultamento , Pandemias
16.
Sci Adv ; 9(23): eadg7676, 2023 06 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37294754

RESUMO

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Etiópia/epidemiologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pandemias
17.
Commun Med (Lond) ; 2: 54, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35603270

RESUMO

Background: The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The age-specific IFR can be quantified using antibody surveys to estimate total infections, but requires consideration of delay-distributions from time from infection to seroconversion, time to death, and time to seroreversion (i.e. antibody waning) alongside serologic test sensitivity and specificity. Previous IFR estimates have not fully propagated uncertainty or accounted for these potential biases, particularly seroreversion. Methods: We built a Bayesian statistical model that incorporates these factors and applied this model to simulated data and 10 serologic studies from different countries. Results: We demonstrate that seroreversion becomes a crucial factor as time accrues but is less important during first-wave, short-term dynamics. We additionally show that disaggregating surveys by regions with higher versus lower disease burden can inform serologic test specificity estimates. The overall IFR in each setting was estimated at 0.49-2.53%. Conclusion: We developed a robust statistical framework to account for full uncertainties in the parameters determining IFR. We provide code for others to apply these methods to further datasets and future epidemics.

18.
Int J Epidemiol ; 50(3): 753-767, 2021 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33837401

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential. METHODS: An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020-2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a 'dual-demand' (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model. RESULTS: Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource. Reactive lockdowns could lead to large improvements in ICU capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and sustained under a higher level of suppression. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. CONCLUSION: Reductions in capacity deficits under different scenarios must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of further lockdowns. Careful, continuous decision-making by national policymakers will be required across the winter period 2020-2021.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , França , Alemanha , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Itália , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Lancet Microbe ; 2(4): e141-e150, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35544189

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology and severity of non-falciparum malaria in endemic settings has garnered little attention. We aimed to characterise the prevalence, interaction, clinical risk factors, and temporal trends of non-falciparum Plasmodium species among symptomatic individuals presenting at health-care facilities in endemic settings of Kenya. METHODS: We diagnosed and analysed infecting malaria species (Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium ovale curtisi, Plasmodium ovale wallikeri, and Plasmodium malariae) via PCR in clinical samples collected between March 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2016, from six hospitals located in different regions of Kenya. We recruited patients aged 6 months or older who presented at outpatient departments with symptoms of malaria or tested positive for uncomplicated malaria by malaria rapid diagnostic test. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the prevalence and distribution of Plasmodium species. A statistical model was designed and used for estimating the frequency of Plasmodium species and assessing interspecies interactions. Mixed-effect linear regression models with random slopes for each location were used to test for change in prevalence over time. FINDINGS: Samples from 2027 symptomatic participants presenting at care facilities were successfully analysed for all Plasmodium species. 1469 (72·5%) of the samples were P falciparum single-species infections, 523 (25·8%) were mixed infections, and only 35 (1·7%) were single non-falciparum species infections. 452 (22·3%) were mixed infections containing P ovale spp. A likelihood-based model calculation of the population frequency of each species estimated a significant within-host interference between P falciparum and P ovale curtisi. Mixed-effect logistic regression models identified a significant increase in P ovale wallikeri (2·1% per year; p=0·043) and P ovale curtisi (0·7% per year; p=0·0002) species over time, with a reciprocal decrease in P falciparum single-species infections (2·5% per year; p=0·0065). The frequency of P malariae infections did not significantly change over time. Risk of P falciparum infections presenting with fever was lower if co-infected with P malariae (adjusted odds ratio 0·43, 95% CI 0·25-0·74; p=0·0023). INTERPRETATION: Our results show a prevalence of non-falciparum species infections of 27·5% among symptomatic individuals presenting at care facilities, which is higher than expected from previous cross-sectional surveys. The proportion of infections with P ovale wallikeri and P ovale curtisi was observed to significantly increase over the period of study, which could be due to attenuated responsiveness of these species to malaria drug treatment. The increase in frequency of P ovale spp could threaten the malaria control efforts in Kenya and pose increased risk of malaria to travellers. FUNDING: Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch and its Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Section.


Assuntos
Coinfecção , Malária Falciparum , Malária , Plasmodium ovale , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Funções Verossimilhança , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Plasmodium falciparum , Plasmodium malariae , Prevalência
20.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 4169, 2021 07 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34234124

RESUMO

Reports of P. vivax infections among Duffy-negative hosts have accumulated throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this growing body of evidence, no nationally representative epidemiological surveys of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa have been performed. To overcome this gap in knowledge, we screened over 17,000 adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for P. vivax using samples from the 2013-2014 Demographic Health Survey. Overall, we found a 2.97% (95% CI: 2.28%, 3.65%) prevalence of P. vivax infections across the DRC. Infections were associated with few risk-factors and demonstrated a relatively flat distribution of prevalence across space with focal regions of relatively higher prevalence in the north and northeast. Mitochondrial genomes suggested that DRC P. vivax were distinct from circulating non-human ape strains and an ancestral European P. vivax strain, and instead may be part of a separate contemporary clade. Our findings suggest P. vivax is diffusely spread across the DRC at a low prevalence, which may be associated with long-term carriage of low parasitemia, frequent relapses, or a general pool of infections with limited forward propagation.


Assuntos
Portador Sadio/epidemiologia , Malária Vivax/epidemiologia , Parasitemia/epidemiologia , Plasmodium vivax/isolamento & purificação , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Portador Sadio/diagnóstico , Portador Sadio/parasitologia , Estudos Transversais , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Malária Vivax/diagnóstico , Malária Vivax/parasitologia , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento/estatística & dados numéricos , Parasitemia/parasitologia , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
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