Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland: an observational record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). RESULTS: Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4-17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8-11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4-24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9-31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.

Polypharmacy during pregnancy and associated risk factors: a retrospective analysis of 577 medication exposures among 1.5 million pregnancies in the UK, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: The number of medications prescribed during pregnancy has increased over the past few decades. Few studies have described the prevalence of multiple medication use among pregnant women. This study aims to describe the overall prevalence over the last two decades among all pregnant women and those with multimorbidity and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2019 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) pregnancy register. Prescription records for 577 medication categories were obtained. Prevalence estimates for polypharmacy (ranging from 2+ to 11+ medications) were presented along with the medications commonly prescribed individually and in pairs during the first trimester and the entire pregnancy period. Logistic regression models were performed to identify risk factors for polypharmacy. RESULTS: During the first trimester (812,354 pregnancies), the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 24.6% (2+ medications) to 0.1% (11+ medications). During the entire pregnancy period (774,247 pregnancies), the prevalence ranged from 58.7 to 1.4%. Broad-spectrum penicillin (6.6%), compound analgesics (4.5%) and treatment of candidiasis (4.3%) were commonly prescribed. Pairs of medication prescribed to manage different long-term conditions commonly included selective beta 2 agonists or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Risk factors for being prescribed 2+ medications during the first trimester of pregnancy include being overweight or obese [aOR: 1.16 (1.14-1.18) and 1.55 (1.53-1.57)], belonging to an ethnic minority group [aOR: 2.40 (2.33-2.47), 1.71 (1.65-1.76), 1.41 (1.35-1.47) and 1.39 (1.30-1.49) among women from South Asian, Black, other and mixed ethnicities compared to white women] and smoking or previously smoking [aOR: 1.19 (1.18-1.20) and 1.05 (1.03-1.06)]. Higher and lower age, higher gravidity, increasing number of comorbidities and increasing level of deprivation were also associated with increased odds of polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy has increased over the past two decades and is particularly high in younger and older women; women with high BMI, smokers and ex-smokers; and women with multimorbidity, higher gravidity and higher levels of deprivation. Well-conducted pharmaco-epidemiological research is needed to understand the effects of multiple medication use on the developing foetus.

The development of a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in reported outcomes can limit the synthesis of research evidence. A core outcome set informs what outcomes are important and should be measured as a minimum in all future studies. We report the development of a core outcome set applicable to observational and interventional studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity. METHODS: We developed the core outcome set in four stages: (i) a systematic literature search, (ii) three focus groups with UK stakeholders, (iii) two rounds of Delphi surveys with international stakeholders and (iv) two international virtual consensus meetings. Stakeholders included women with multimorbidity and experience of pregnancy in the last 5 years, or are planning a pregnancy, their partners, health or social care professionals and researchers. Study adverts were shared through stakeholder charities and organisations. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies were included in the systematic literature search (2017 to 2021) reporting 185 outcomes. Thematic analysis of the focus groups added a further 28 outcomes. Two hundred and nine stakeholders completed the first Delphi survey. One hundred and sixteen stakeholders completed the second Delphi survey where 45 outcomes reached Consensus In (≥70% of all participants rating an outcome as Critically Important). Thirteen stakeholders reviewed 15 Borderline outcomes in the first consensus meeting and included seven additional outcomes. Seventeen stakeholders reviewed these 52 outcomes in a second consensus meeting, the threshold was ≥80% of all participants voting for inclusion. The final core outcome set included 11 outcomes. The five maternal outcomes were as follows: maternal death, severe maternal morbidity, change in existing long-term conditions (physical and mental), quality and experience of care and development of new mental health conditions. The six child outcomes were as follows: survival of baby, gestational age at birth, neurodevelopmental conditions/impairment, quality of life, birth weight and separation of baby from mother for health care needs. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity in pregnancy is a new and complex clinical research area. Following a rigorous process, this complexity was meaningfully reduced to a core outcome set that balances the views of a diverse stakeholder group.

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy: the impact of multimorbidity and smoking status on vaccine hesitancy, a cohort study of 25,111 women in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, smoking status, and pregnancy are identified as three risk factors associated with more severe outcomes following a SARS-CoV-2 infection, thus vaccination uptake is crucial for pregnant women living with multimorbidity and a history of smoking. This study aimed to examine the impact of multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics (age, ethnic group, area of deprivation) on vaccine hesitancy among pregnant women in Wales using electronic health records (EHR) linkage. METHODS: This cohort study utilised routinely collected, individual-level, anonymised population-scale linked data within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Pregnant women were identified from 13th April 2021 to 31st December 2021. Survival analysis was employed to examine and compare the length of time to vaccination uptake in pregnancy by considering multimorbidity, smoking status, as well as depression, diabetes, asthma, and cardiovascular conditions independently. The study also assessed the variation in uptake by multimorbidity, smoking status, and demographics, both jointly and separately for the independent conditions, using hazard ratios (HR) derived from the Cox regression model. RESULTS: Within the population cohort, 8,203 (32.7%) received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, with 8,572 (34.1%) remaining unvaccinated throughout the follow-up period, and 8,336 (33.2%) receiving the vaccine postpartum. Women aged 30 years or older were more likely to have the vaccine in pregnancy. Those who had depression were slightly but significantly more likely to have the vaccine compared to those without depression (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.14, p = 0.002). Women living with multimorbidity were 1.12 times more likely to have the vaccine compared to those living without multimorbidity (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19, p = 0.001). Vaccine uptakes were significantly lower among both current smokers and former smokers compared to never smokers (HR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.94, p < 0.001 and HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.98, p = 0.015 respectively). Uptake was also lower among those living in the most deprived areas compared to those living in the most affluent areas (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.96, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Younger women, living without multimorbidity, current and former smokers, and those living in the more deprived areas are less likely to have the vaccine, thus, a targeted approach to vaccinations may be required for these groups. Pregnant individuals living with multimorbidity exhibit a slight but statistically significant reduction in vaccine hesitancy towards COVID-19 during pregnancy.

Key outcomes for reporting in studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Maternal multiple long-term conditions are associated with adverse outcomes for mother and child. We conducted a qualitative study to inform a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions. METHODS: Women with two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, who had been pregnant in the last five years or planning a pregnancy, their partners and health care professionals were eligible. Recruitment was through social media, patients and health care professionals' organisations and personal contacts. Participants who contacted the study team were purposively sampled for maximum variation. Three virtual focus groups were conducted from December 2021 to March 2022 in the United Kingdom: (i) health care professionals (n = 8), (ii) women with multiple long-term conditions (n = 6), and (iii) women with multiple long-term conditions (n = 6) and partners (n = 2). There was representation from women with 20 different physical health conditions and four mental health conditions; health care professionals from obstetrics, obstetric/maternal medicine, midwifery, neonatology, perinatal psychiatry, and general practice. Participants were asked what outcomes should be reported in all studies of pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions. Inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Outcomes identified in the focus groups were mapped to those identified in a systematic literature search in the core outcome set development. RESULTS: The focus groups identified 63 outcomes, including maternal (n = 43), children's (n = 16) and health care utilisation (n = 4) outcomes. Twenty-eight outcomes were new when mapped to the systematic literature search. Outcomes considered important were generally similar across stakeholder groups. Women emphasised outcomes related to care processes, such as information sharing when transitioning between health care teams and stages of pregnancy (continuity of care). Both women and partners wanted to be involved in care decisions and to feel informed of the risks to the pregnancy and baby. Health care professionals additionally prioritised non-clinical outcomes, including quality of life and financial implications for the women; and longer-term outcomes, such as children's developmental outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings will inform the design of a core outcome set. Participants' experiences provided useful insights of how maternity care for pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions can be improved.

Adversity profiles of children receiving care and support from social services: A latent-class analysis of school-aged children in Wales.

BACKGROUND: Children receive care and support from social services due to the risk of harm or impeded development or because of disability. This study aimed to identify typologies of adversity experienced by children receiving care and support from social services and to explore how typologies differ by sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of 'Children Receiving Care and Support' (N = 12 792) during 2017/2018 in Wales, UK. We sought to (1) examine the prevalence of household adversities experienced by children in receipt of care and support from social services; (2) identify typologies of household adversities; and (3) explore how typologies of household adversities differ by family characteristics (demographics, measures of social disadvantage, perinatal and care factors). RESULTS: We found evidence for multiple risk factor constellations. The four-class solution suggested four distinct classes of adversities: child disability (50.0%), low adversities (20.3%), family poor health (6.7%) and multiple risks (23.0%). Children in the 'multiple risk' class were significantly more likely to be younger, more deprived and 'looked after' by the local authority compared with those in the 'low adversities' class. CONCLUSIONS: Given the presence of different constellations of household adversities, policies and interventions that address multiple risk factors simultaneously may be more effective and have longer-lasting benefits.

Shielding reduced incidence of COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory arthritis but vulnerability is associated with increased mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Investigate whether individuals with inflammatory arthritis (IA), their treatments and shielding status affect the risk of adverse outcomes from COVID-19 for the entire population of Wales, UK. METHODS: Retrospective, population-based cohort study using linked, anonymized electronic health data from SAIL Databank, including primary/secondary care, rheumatology, Office for National Statistics Mortality and COVID-19 laboratory data. Individuals aged 18 years and over testing positive for COVID-19 between March 2020 and May 2021 with READ Codes present for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis formed the study cases. RESULTS: A total of 1966 people with IA and 166 602 without tested positive for COVID-19. The incidence rate was 3.5% (1966/56 914) in IA, vs 6% in the general population (166 602/2 760 442), (difference: 2.5%, 95% CI: 2.4%, 2.7%, P ≤0.001). In an adjusted Cox proportional hazard model, IA was not associated with higher mortality (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.18, 1.64, P=0.286). Significant risk factors included shielding (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.40, 1.64, P ≤0.001), hospitalization for previous infections (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.28, P ≤0.001), hospitalizations one year pre-pandemic (HR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.44, P ≤0.001) and glucocorticoid use (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.25, P ≤0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with IA had a lower incidence of COVID-19, probably due to shielding. IA was not associated with increased mortality following COVID-19 infection; being vulnerable (shielded), comorbidities and other factors were associated with increased risk. These key risk factors can identify individuals with IA at greater risk from COVID-19 and advised to shield during high community prevalence.

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy: views and vaccination uptake rates in pregnancy, a mixed methods analysis from SAIL and the Born-In-Wales Birth Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy amongst pregnant women has been found to be a concern during past epidemics. This study aimed to (1) estimate COVID-19 vaccination rates among pregnant women in Wales and their association with age, ethnicity, and area of deprivation, using electronic health record (EHR) data linkage, and (2) explore pregnant women's views on receiving the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy using data from a survey recruiting via social media (Facebook, Twitter), through midwives, and posters in hospitals (Born-In-Wales Cohort). METHODS: This was a mixed-methods study utilising routinely collected linked data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank (Objective 1) and the Born-In-Wales Birth Cohort participants (Objective 2). Pregnant women were identified from 13th April 2021 to 31st December 2021. Survival analysis was utilised to examine and compare the length of time to vaccination uptake in pregnancy, and variation in uptake by; age, ethnic group, and deprivation area was examined using hazard ratios (HR) from Cox regression. Survey respondents were women who had a baby during the COVID-19 pandemic or were pregnant between 1st November 2021 and 24th March 2022 and participating in Born-In-Wales. Codebook thematic analysis was used to generate themes from an open-ended question on the survey. RESULTS: Population-level data linkage (objective 1): Within the population cohort, 8203 (32.7%) received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, 8572 (34.1%) remained unvaccinated throughout the follow-up period, and 8336 (33.2%) received the vaccine postpartum. Younger women (< 30 years) were less likely to have the vaccine, and those living in areas of high deprivation were also less likely to have the vaccine (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.95). Asian and Other ethnic groups were 1.12 and 1.18 times more likely to have the vaccine in pregnancy compared with White women (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.25) and (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.37) respectively. Survey responses (objective 2): 207 (69%) of participants stated that they would be happy to have the vaccine during pregnancy. The remaining 94 (31%) indicated they would not have the vaccine during pregnancy. Reasons for having the vaccine included protecting self and baby, perceived risk level, and receipt of sufficient evidence and advice. Reasons for vaccine refusal included lack of research about long-term outcomes for the baby, anxiety about vaccines, inconsistent advice/information, and preference to wait until after the pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Potentially only 1 in 3 pregnant women would have the COVID-19 vaccine during pregnancy, even though 2 in 3 reported they would have the vaccination, thus it is critical to develop tailored strategies to increase its acceptance rate and decrease vaccine hesitancy. A targeted approach to vaccinations may be required for groups such as younger people and those living in higher deprivation areas.

Epidemiology of pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnant women in the UK in 2018: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Although maternal death is rare in the United Kingdom, 90% of these women had multiple health/social problems. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity (two or more long-term physical or mental health conditions) in pregnant women in the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland). STUDY DESIGN: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years with a conception date 1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018 were included in this population-based cross-sectional study, using routine healthcare datasets from primary care: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, United Kingdom, n = 37,641) and Secure Anonymized Information Linkage databank (SAIL, Wales, n = 27,782), and secondary care: Scottish Morbidity Records with linked community prescribing data (SMR, Tayside and Fife, n = 6099). Pre-existing multimorbidity preconception was defined from 79 long-term health conditions prioritised through a workshop with patient representatives and clinicians. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 44.2% (95% CI 43.7-44.7%), 46.2% (45.6-46.8%) and 19.8% (18.8-20.8%) in CPRD, SAIL and SMR respectively. When limited to health conditions that were active in the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of multimorbidity was still high (24.2% [23.8-24.6%], 23.5% [23.0-24.0%] and 17.0% [16.0 to 17.9%] in the respective datasets). Mental health conditions were highly prevalent and involved 70% of multimorbidity CPRD: multimorbidity with ≥one mental health condition/s 31.3% [30.8-31.8%]). After adjusting for age, ethnicity, gravidity, index of multiple deprivation, body mass index and smoking, logistic regression showed that pregnant women with multimorbidity were more likely to be older (CPRD England, adjusted OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.04-3.17] 45-49 years vs 15-19 years), multigravid (1.68 [1.50-1.89] gravidity ≥ five vs one), have raised body mass index (1.59 [1.44-1.76], body mass index 30+ vs body mass index 18.5-24.9) and smoked preconception (1.61 [1.46-1.77) vs non-smoker). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is prevalent in pregnant women in the United Kingdom, they are more likely to be older, multigravid, have raised body mass index and smoked preconception. Secondary care and community prescribing dataset may only capture the severe spectrum of health conditions. Research is needed urgently to quantify the consequences of maternal multimorbidity for both mothers and children.

Age within schoolyear and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in Scotland and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest an association between age within schoolyear and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Scotland and Wales have different school entry cut-off dates (six months apart) and policies on holding back children. We aim to investigate the association between relative age and treated attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in two countries, accounting for held-back children. METHODS: Routine education and health records of 1,063,256 primary and secondary schoolchildren in Scotland (2009-2013) and Wales (2009-2016) were linked. Logistic regression was used to examine the relationships between age within schoolyear and treated ADHD, adjusting for child, maternity and obstetric confounders. RESULTS: Amongst children in their expected school year, 8,721 (0.87%) had treated ADHD (Scotland 0.84%; Wales 0.96%). In Wales, ADHD increased with decreasing age (youngest quartile, adjusted OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19-1.46) but, in Scotland, it did not differ between the youngest and oldest quartiles. Including held-back children in analysis of their expected year, the overall prevalence of treated ADHD was 0.93%, and increased across age quartiles in both countries. More children were held back in Scotland (57,979; 7.66%) than Wales (2,401; 0.78%). Held-back children were more likely to have treated ADHD (Scotland OR 2.18, 95% CI 2.01-2.36; Wales OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.21-2.31) and 81.18% of held-back children would have been in the youngest quartile of their expected year. CONCLUSIONS: Children younger within schoolyear are more likely to be treated for ADHD, suggesting immaturity may influence diagnosis. However, these children are more likely to be held back in countries that permit flexibility, attenuating the relative age effect.

Associations between swimming & cycling abilities and fitness in 9-11 year old boys and girls.

The associations between swimming and cycling abilities and fitness levels in 9-11-year-old children were examined. A cross-sectional study involving 2258 children (50.7% boys; aged 10.52 ± 0.6 years) from 33 schools across Wales, participated in Swan/BridgeLinx health, fitness, and lifestyle programmes between 2013-2019. Health and fitness data were collected; namely body composition, cardiorespiratory fitness, muscular strength, flexibility, power, and speed using standardised measures. Children completed an online survey collecting data on swimming and cycling abilities and sports club attendance. Multivariate multilevel regressions were used to examine the associations between measures. The ability to swim and cycle was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with all components of fitness when accounting for age, body mass index (BMI), deprivation, gender, and sports club attendance. Boys outperformed girls with significant interactions between swimming, cycling and cardiorespiratory fitness for gender by swim (p = 0.001) and gender by cycle (p = 0.015). The gender by cycle interaction significantly predicted grip strength and power (p < 0.05). Swimming and cycling are important "milestones" in the journey of motor development and are associated with higher levels of fitness. These activities should be promoted to allow for an optimal development of motor skills, fitness, and health.

Shining the light on eating disorders, incidence, prognosis and profiling of patients in primary and secondary care: national data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing eating disorders can be difficult and few people with the disorder receive specialist services despite the associated high morbidity and mortality. AIMS: To examine the burden of eating disorders in the population in terms of incidence, comorbidities and survival. METHOD: We used linked electronic health records from general practitioner and hospital admissions in Wales, UK within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank to investigate the incidence of new eating disorder diagnoses. We examined the frequency of comorbid diagnoses and prescribed medications in cases and controls in the 2 years before and 3 years after diagnosis, and performed a survival analysis. RESULTS: A total of 15 558 people were diagnosed with eating disorders between 1990 and 2017. The incidence peaked at 24 per 100 000 people in 2003/04. People with eating disorders showed higher levels of other mental disorders (odds ratio 4.32, 95% CI 4.01-4.66) and external causes of morbidity and mortality (odds ratio 2.92, 95% CI 2.44-3.50). They had greater prescription of central nervous system drugs (odds ratio 3.15, 95% CI 2.97-3.33), gastrointestinal drugs (odds ratio 2.61, 95% CI 2.45-2.79) and dietetic drugs (odds ratio 2.42, 95% CI 2.24-2.62) before diagnosis. These excess diagnoses and prescriptions remained 3 years after diagnosis. Mortality was raised compared with controls for some eating disorders, particularly in females with anorexia nervosa. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of diagnosed eating disorders is relatively low in the population but there is a major longer term burden in morbidity and mortality to the individual.

Parent recommendations to support physical activity for families with young children: Results of interviews in deprived and affluent communities in South Wales (United Kingdom).

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of mortality worldwide. Early childhood is a critical period when healthy behaviours can be instilled for a future active lifestyle. We explored community, societal and environmental factors affecting child and family physical activity and sought parent recommendations to support physical activity in families with young children. METHODS: We interviewed 61 parents expecting a child or with a baby ≤12 months (35 mother and father paired interviews and 26 interviews with mothers only). We purposively sampled families for neighbourhood deprivation status (Townsend Index; 26 affluent; 35 deprived). We conducted thematic analysis of interview transcripts using Bronfenbrenner's socio-ecological framework to guide interpretation. RESULTS: We identified four themes: work family-life balance; spaces for activity; beliefs and attitudes; and physical activity facilitators. We found that parents from deprived neighbourhoods were more likely to be underactive because of a complex web of community, social and personal factors which reduced motivation and hindered opportunity for physical activity. To increase knowledge and opportunity, respondents suggested 'help not tell' messages covering 'why', 'how' and 'where' information about physical activity, and using physical activity to support community engagement and social interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Recommendations from parents highlight effective communication about the importance of early child and family physical activity and improved community access to safe facilities and opportunities. Both parents need to be engaged in designing interventions to support greater physical activity and healthy behaviours which are relevant and achievable in individuals' lives.

Mild-to-moderate renal pelvis dilatation identified during pregnancy and hospital admissions in childhood: An electronic birth cohort study in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing contributor to the global burden of noncommunicable diseases. Early diagnosis and treatment can reduce the severity of kidney damage and the need for dialysis or transplantation. It is not known whether mild-to-moderate renal pelvis dilatation (RPD) identified at 18-20 weeks gestation is an early indicator of renal pathology. The aim of this follow-up to the Welsh Study of Mothers and Babies was to assess the risk of hospital admission in children with mild-to-moderate antenatal RPD compared with children without this finding. We also examined how the natural history of the RPD (whether the dilatation persists in later pregnancy or postpartum) or its characteristics (unilateral versus bilateral) changed the risk of hospital admission. METHODS/FINDINGS: This population-based cohort study included singleton babies born in Wales between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011 (n = 22,045). We linked ultrasound scan data to routinely available data on hospital admissions from the Patient Episode Database for Wales (PEDW). The outcome was a hospital admission for urinary tract causes (defined by an expert study steering group) in the first three years of life. We used Cox regression to model time to first hospital admission, according to whether there was evidence of RPD at the fetal anomaly scan (FAS) and/or evidence of dilatation in later investigations, adjusting for other predictors of admission. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to impute values for missing data. We included 21,239 children in the analysis. The risk of at least one hospital admission was seven times greater in those with RPD (n = 138) compared with those without (n = 21,101, conditional hazard ratio [cHR] 7.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.31-12.15, p < 0.001). The risk of hospital admission was higher in children with RPD at the FAS and later dilatation (cHR 25.13, 95% CI 13.26-47.64, p < 0.001) and in children without RPD at the FAS who had later dilatation (cHR 62.06, 95% CI 41.10-93.71, p < 0.001) than in children without RPD (n = 21,057). Among children with RPD at the FAS but no dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum, we did not find an association with hospital admissions (cHR 2.16, 95% CI 0.69-6.75, p = 0.185), except when the initial dilatation was bilateral (cHR 4.77, 95% CI 1.17-19.47, p = 0.029). Limitations of the study include small numbers in subgroups (meaning that these results should be interpreted with caution), that less severe outcomes (such as urinary tract infections [UTIs] managed in the community or in outpatients) could not be included in our analysis, and that obtaining records of radiological investigations later in pregnancy and postpartum was challenging. Our conclusions were consistent after conducting sensitivity analyses to account for some of these limitations. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study, children with RPD at the FAS had higher rates of hospital admissions when there was persistent dilatation in later pregnancy or postpartum. Our results can be used to improve counselling of parents and develop care pathways for antenatal screening programmes, including protocols for reporting and further investigation of RPD.

School achievement as a predictor of depression and self-harm in adolescence: linked education and health record study.

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders in children and adolescents have an impact on educational attainment. Aims To examine the temporal association between attainment in education and subsequent diagnosis of depression or self-harm in the teenage years. METHOD: General practitioner, hospital and education records of young people in Wales between 1999 and 2014 were linked and analysed using Cox regression. RESULTS: Linked records were available for 652 903 young people and of these 33 498 (5.1%) developed depression and 15 946 (2.4%) self-harmed after the age of 12 but before the age of 20. Young people who developed depression over the study period were more likely to have achieved key stage 1 (age 7 years) but not key stage 2 (age 11) (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.79, 95% CI 0.74-0.84) milestones, indicating that they were declining in academic attainment during primary school. Conversely, those who self-harmed were achieving as well as those who did not self-harm in primary school, but showed a severe decline in their attainment during secondary school (HR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.78). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term declining educational attainment in primary and secondary school was associated with development of depression in the teenage years. Self-harm was associated with declining educational attainment during secondary school only. Incorporating information on academic decline with other known risk factors for depression/self-harm (for example stressful life events, parental mental health problems) may improve risk profiling methods. Declaration of interest None.

Teenage recommendations to improve physical activity for their age group: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: It is recommended that young people should engage in 60 min of moderate-to-vigorous activity (MVPA) a day for health benefits, but few teenagers actually meet this recommendation. Policy-makers play a vital role in designing physical activity initiatives, but they generally do this with little or no input from the intervention recipients. This study explores the recommendations made by teenagers to improve activity provision, uptake and sustainability of physical activity engagement for both themselves and their peers. METHODS: Thirteen focus groups were carried out in seven secondary schools in South Wales, United Kingdom. Participants (n = 78) were recruited from a larger mixed-method randomised control trial, which involved the implementation of a voucher scheme to promote physical activity in teenagers (aged 13-14). Thematic analysis was undertaken to identify key issues from the perspective of the teenage participants. RESULTS: Six key recommendations were identified following analysis of the focus groups: i) Lower/remove the cost of activities without sacrificing the quality, ii) Make physical activity opportunities more locally accessible, iii) Improve the standards of existing facilities, iv) Make activities more specific to teenagers v) Give teenagers a choice of activities/increase variety of activity and vi) Provide activities that teenage girls enjoy (e.g., fun, sociable and not competitive sport). Throughout the focus groups, the increased opportunity to participate in unstructured activity was a key recommendation echoed by both boys and girls in all themes. CONCLUSION: There is a disconnect between what is available and what teenagers want to do. Policy-makers and those involved in physical activity delivery (e.g., schools, local council and local activity providers) should include young people in designing interventions and facilities to ensure they are meeting the needs of this age group and providing the right opportunities for teenagers to be active. That is unstructured, local, low cost, fun, sociable opportunities and the right facilities to be active.

Active children through individual vouchers - evaluation (ACTIVE): protocol for a mixed method randomised control trial to increase physical activity levels in teenagers.

BACKGROUND: Many teenagers are insufficiently active despite the health benefits of physical activity (PA). There is strong evidence to show that inactivity and low fitness levels increase the risk of non-communicable diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD), type 2 diabetes and breast and colon cancers (Lee et al. Lancet 380:219-29, 2012). A major barrier facing adolescents is accessibility (e.g. cost and lack of local facilities). The ACTIVE project aims to tackle this barrier through a multi-faceted intervention, giving teenagers vouchers to spend on activities of their choice and empowering young people to improve their fitness and PA levels. DESIGN: ACTIVE is a mixed methods randomised control trial in 7 secondary schools in Swansea, South Wales. Quantitative and qualitative measures including PA (cooper run test (CRT), accelerometery over 7 days), cardiovascular (CV) measures (blood pressure, pulse wave analysis) and focus groups will be undertaken at 4 separate time points (baseline, 6 months,12 months and follow-up at 18 months). Intervention schools will receive a multi-component intervention involving 12 months of £20 vouchers to spend on physical activities of their choice, a peer mentor scheme and opportunities to attend advocacy meetings. Control schools are encouraged to continue usual practice. The primary aim is to examine the effect of the intervention in improving cardiovascular fitness. DISCUSSION: This paper describes the protocol for the ACTIVE randomised control trial, which aims to increase fitness, physical activity and socialisation of teenagers in Swansea, UK via a voucher scheme combined with peer mentoring. Results can contribute to the evidence base on teenage physical activity and, if effective, the intervention has the potential to inform future physical activity interventions and policy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN75594310 (Assigned 06/03/2017).

Development of an algorithm for determining smoking status and behaviour over the life course from UK electronic primary care records.

BACKGROUND: Patients' smoking status is routinely collected by General Practitioners (GP) in UK primary health care. There is an abundance of Read codes pertaining to smoking, including those relating to smoking cessation therapy, prescription, and administration codes, in addition to the more regularly employed smoking status codes. Large databases of primary care data are increasingly used for epidemiological analysis; smoking status is an important covariate in many such analyses. However, the variable definition is rarely documented in the literature. METHODS: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank is a repository for a national collection of person-based anonymised health and socio-economic administrative data in Wales, UK. An exploration of GP smoking status data from the SAIL databank was carried out to explore the range of codes available and how they could be used in the identification of different categories of smokers, ex-smokers and never smokers. An algorithm was developed which addresses inconsistencies and changes in smoking status recording across the life course and compared with recorded smoking status as recorded in the Welsh Health Survey (WHS), 2013 and 2014 at individual level. However, the WHS could not be regarded as a "gold standard" for validation. RESULTS: There were 6836 individuals in the linked dataset. Missing data were more common in GP records (6%) than in WHS (1.1%). Our algorithm assigns ex-smoker status to 34% of never-smokers, and detects 30% more smokers than are declared in the WHS data. When distinguishing between current smokers and non-smokers, the similarity between the WHS and GP data using the nearest date of comparison was κ = 0.78. When temporal conflicts had been accounted for, the similarity was κ = 0.64, showing the importance of addressing conflicts. CONCLUSIONS: We present an algorithm for the identification of a patient's smoking status using GP self-reported data. We have included sufficient details to allow others to replicate this work, thus increasing the standards of documentation within this research area and assessment of smoking status in routine data.

Active children through incentive vouchers - evaluation (ACTIVE): a mixed-method feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents face many barriers to physical activity, demonstrated by the decline in physical activity levels in teenage populations. This study aimed to assess the feasibility of overcoming such barriers via the implementation of an activity-promoting voucher scheme to teenagers in deprived areas. METHODS: All Year 9 pupils (n = 115; 13.3 ± 0.48 years; 51 % boys) from one secondary school in Wales (UK) participated. Participants received £25 of activity vouchers every month for six months for physical activity or sporting equipment. Focus groups (n = 7), with 43 pupils, and qualitative interviews with teachers (n = 2) were conducted to assess feasibility, in addition to a process evaluation utilising the RE-AIM framework. Quantitative outcomes at baseline, five months (during intervention) and twelve months (follow-up) included: physical activity (accelerometer), aerobic fitness (12 min Cooper run) and self-reported activity (PAQ-A). Motivation to exercise (BREQ-2) was measured three months post-baseline and at follow-up. RESULTS: Qualitative findings showed that vouchers encouraged friends to socialise through activity, provided opportunities to access local activities that pupils normally could not afford, and engaged both those interested and disinterested in physical education. Improvements in weekend moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and reductions in sedentary behaviour were observed in both sexes. Boys' fitness significantly improved during the voucher scheme. 'Non-active' pupils (those not meeting recommended guidelines of 60 mins∙day(-1)) and those with higher motivation to exercise had higher voucher use. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents, teachers and activity providers supported the voucher scheme and felt the vouchers enabled deprived adolescents to access more physical activity opportunities. Voucher usage was associated with improved attitudes to physical activity, increased socialisation with friends and improved fitness and physical activity; presenting interesting avenues for further exploration in a larger intervention trial.

Severe flare as a predictor of poor outcome in ankylosing spondylitis: a cohort study using questionnaire and routine data linkage.

OBJECTIVE: To explore severe flare and constant disease pattern (no periods of remission) in AS as predictors of poor outcomes [impaired function, unemployment/early retirement, work impairment, anti-TNF, surgery, frequent general practitioner (GP) visits, depression and anxiety]. METHODS: Three hundred and forty-eight AS patients completed questionnaires about their experience with disease flares. Questionnaire data were linked to electronic medical records to examine visits to GPs and hospital admission data. Outcomes were stratified in two ways: self-reported experience of severe flare and constant disease pattern using the flare illustration tool. RESULTS: The majority of patients (72%, 208/289) experienced flare pre-diagnosis. Severe flares were reported by 58% (202/348) of participants (self-report); of these, 195 responded about earliest flares and 69% (135/195) of severe flare patients experienced flares pre-diagnosis. Patients who self-reported severe flares had worse function, disease activity, work impairment and symptoms of anxiety and depression, were less likely to be employed and had more GP encounters per year compared with those who never reported severe flares. Participants who reported constant unremitting disease on the flare illustration tool had worse disease activity, impaired function and work impairment and were more likely to smoke compared with those with intermittent disease. Analysis showed a relationship between self-report of severe flare and subsequent depression, impaired function, increased disease activity and work limitations. CONCLUSION: Severe flare is associated with poor outcomes such as work impairment and impaired function. The onset of severe flare early in the disease course may be a risk factor for later poor outcome and this group could benefit from targeted early aggressive treatment to improve prognosis.