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We evaluated the presence of influenza A(H5) virus environmental contamination in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. By using Bernoulli generalized linear models and multinomial logistic regression models, we quantified LBM-level factors associated with market work zone-specific influenza A(H5) virus contamination patterns. Results showed higher environmental contamination in LBMs that have wholesale and retail operations compared with retail-only markets (relative risk 0.69, 95% 0.51-0.93; p = 0.012) and in March compared with January (relative risk 2.07, 95% CI 1.44-2.96; p<0.001). Influenza A(H5) environmental contamination remains a public health problem in most LBMs in Dhaka, which underscores the need to implement enhanced biosecurity interventions in LBMs in Bangladesh.
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Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária , Influenza Humana , Animais , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Humanos , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Aves DomésticasRESUMO
In Bangladesh, the poultry industry is an economically and socially important sector, but it is persistently threatened by the effects of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza. Thus, identifying the optimal control policy in response to an emerging disease outbreak is a key challenge for policy-makers. To inform this aim, a common approach is to carry out simulation studies comparing plausible strategies, while accounting for known capacity restrictions. In this study we perform simulations of a previously developed H5N1 influenza transmission model framework, fitted to two separate historical outbreaks, to assess specific control objectives related to the burden or duration of H5N1 outbreaks among poultry farms in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh. In particular, we explore the optimal implementation of ring culling, ring vaccination and active surveillance measures when presuming disease transmission predominately occurs from premises-to-premises, versus a setting requiring the inclusion of external factors. Additionally, we determine the sensitivity of the management actions under consideration to differing levels of capacity constraints and outbreaks with disparate transmission dynamics. While we find that reactive culling and vaccination policies should pay close attention to these factors to ensure intervention targeting is optimised, across multiple settings the top performing control action amongst those under consideration were targeted proactive surveillance schemes. Our findings may advise the type of control measure, plus its intensity, that could potentially be applied in the event of a developing outbreak of H5N1 amongst originally H5N1 virus-free commercially-reared poultry in the Dhaka division of Bangladesh.
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Galinhas/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/prevenção & controle , Aves Domésticas/virologia , Animais , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Simulação por Computador , Geografia , Política de Saúde , Influenza Aviária/diagnóstico , Modelos TeóricosRESUMO
The surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in commensal Escherichia coli from livestock at slaughter is widely employed to assess the potential for risk to humans. There is currently a limited understanding of AMR in Bangladesh poultry at retail in live bird markets, with studies focussing solely on phenotypic characterisation of resistance. To address this evidence gap we performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing on E. coli obtained from chickens from live bird markets in Dhaka in 2018 (n = 38) and 2020 (n = 45). E. coli were isolated from caeca samples following ISO guidelines and sequenced using short and long read methods. Multidrug resistance was extremely common (n = 77) and there was excellent concordance between AMR phenotype and the presence of corresponding AMR genes or mutations. There was considerable genomic diversity, with 43 different sequence types detected. Public health considerations included the high occurrence of resistance to ciprofloxacin (n = 75) associated with plasmid-residing qnrS or mutations in the gyrA and parC chromosomal genes; and the detection of a tigecycline resistant isolate harbouring tet(X4) on an IncHI1A/B-IncFIA mosaic plasmid. Thirty-nine isolates were resistant to azithromycin and harboured mphA, with a significant increase in the incidence of resistance between 2018 and 2020. Although azithromycin is banned for veterinary use in Bangladesh it remains an important treatment option for humans. Interestingly, mphA confers high-level resistance to azithromycin and erythromycin, and the latter is commonly used on poultry farms in Bangladesh. Seven isolates were colistin resistant and carried mcr1. For two isolates hybrid assemblies revealed that mcr1 resided on a highly conserved IncHI2 plasmid that had 93% nucleotide identity to a plasmid from the published genome of an E. coli isolate of Bangladeshi human origin. Six isolates had resistance to third generation cephalosporins, associated with plasmid-residing bla CTX-M-55, bla CTX-M-65, or bla DHA-1. By employing phenotypic and genomic approaches for AMR surveillance we have provided new insights into the potential for One Health AMR linkages in Bangladesh. Employing similar approaches in human and environmental sectors will help inform the One Health approach to addressing AMR, and generate evidence to support mitigation measures such as improved antimicrobial stewardship.
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BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission vary in their feasibility, appropriateness and effectiveness in different contexts. In Bangladesh a national lockdown implemented in March 2020 exacerbated poverty and was untenable long-term. A resurgence in 2021 warranted renewed NPIs. We sought to identify NPIs that were feasible in this context and explore potential synergies between interventions. METHODS: We developed an SEIR model for Dhaka District, parameterised from literature values and calibrated to data from Bangladesh. We discussed scenarios and parameterisations with policymakers with the aid of an interactive app. These discussions guided modelling of lockdown and two post-lockdown measures considered feasible to deliver; symptoms-based household quarantining and compulsory mask-wearing. We compared NPI scenarios on deaths, hospitalisations relative to capacity, working days lost, and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Lockdowns alone were predicted to delay the first epidemic peak but could not prevent overwhelming of the health service and were costly in lost working days. Impacts of post-lockdown interventions depended heavily on compliance. Assuming 80% compliance, symptoms-based household quarantining alone could not prevent hospitalisations exceeding capacity, whilst mask-wearing prevented overwhelming health services and was cost-effective given masks of high filtration efficiency. Combining masks with quarantine increased their impact. Recalibration to surging cases in 2021 suggested potential for a further wave in 2021, dependent on uncertainties in case reporting and immunity. CONCLUSIONS: Masks and symptoms-based household quarantining synergistically prevent transmission, and are cost-effective in Bangladesh. Our interactive app was valuable in supporting decision-making, with mask-wearing being mandated early, and community teams being deployed to support quarantining across Dhaka. These measures likely contributed to averting the worst public health impacts, but delivering an effective response with consistent compliance across the population has been challenging. In the event of a further resurgence, concurrent messaging to increase compliance with both mask-wearing and quarantine is recommended.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Máscaras , QuarentenaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Seasonal and avian influenza viruses circulate among human and poultry populations in Bangladesh. However, the epidemiology of influenza is not well defined in this setting. We aimed to characterise influenza seasonality, examine regional heterogeneity in transmission, and evaluate coseasonality between circulating influenza viruses in Bangladesh. METHODS: In this retrospective, time-series study, we used data collected between January, 2010, and December, 2019, from 32 hospital-based influenza surveillance sites across Bangladesh. We estimated influenza peak timing and intensity in ten regions using negative binomial harmonic regression models, and applied meta-analytic methods to determine whether seasonality differed across regions. Using live bird market surveillance data in Dhaka, Bangladesh, we estimated avian influenza seasonality and examined coseasonality between human and avian influenza viruses. FINDINGS: Over the 10-year study period, we included 8790 human influenza cases and identified a distinct influenza season, with an annual peak in June to July each year (peak calendar week 27·6, 95% CI 26·7-28·6). Epidemic timing varied by region (I2=93·9%; p<0·0001), with metropolitan regions peaking earlier and epidemic spread following a spatial diffusion pattern based on geographical proximity. Comparatively, avian influenza displayed weak seasonality, with moderate year-round transmission and a small peak in April (peak calendar week 14·9, 95% CI 13·2-17·0), which was out of phase with influenza peaks in humans. INTERPRETATION: In Bangladesh, influenza prevention and control activities could be timed with annual seasonality, and regional heterogeneity should be considered in health resource planning. Year-round avian influenza transmission poses a risk for viral spillover, and targeted efforts will be crucial for mitigating potential reassortment and future pandemic threats. FUNDING: Canadian Institute of Health Research Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship.
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Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária , Influenza Humana , Animais , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Canadá , Humanos , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the diagnostic performance and feasibility of rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 detection in low-income communities. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional community-based diagnostic accuracy study. Community health workers, who were trained and supervised by medical technicians, performed rapid antigen tests on symptomatic individuals, and up to two additional household members in their households and diagnostic results were calibrated against the gold standard RT-PCR. SETTING: Low-income communities in Dhaka, Bangladesh. PARTICIPANTS: Between 19 May 2021 and 11 July 2021, 1240 nasal and saliva samples were collected from symptomatic individuals and 993 samples from additional household members (up to two from one household). RESULTS: The sensitivity of rapid antigen tests was 0.68 on nasal samples (95% CI 0.62 to 0.73) and 0.41 on saliva (95% CI 0.35 to 0.46), with specificity also higher on nasal samples (0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99) than saliva (0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). Testing up to two additional household members increased sensitivity to 0.71 on nasal samples (95% CI 0.65 to 0.76), but reduced specificity (0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.97). Sensitivity on saliva rose to 0.48 (95% CI 0.42 to 0.54) with two additional household members tested but remained lower than sensitivity on nasal samples. During the study period, testing in these low-income communities increased fourfold through the mobilisation of community health workers for sample collection. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid antigen testing on nasal swabs can be effectively performed by community health workers yielding equivalent sensitivity and specificity to the literature. Household testing by community health workers in low-resource settings is an inexpensive approach that can increase testing capacity, accessibility and the effectiveness of control measures through immediately actionable results.
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COVID-19 , Agentes Comunitários de Saúde , Bangladesh , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Diagnostics for COVID-19 detection are limited in many settings. Syndromic surveillance is often the only means to identify cases but lacks specificity. Rapid antigen testing is inexpensive and easy-to-deploy but can lack sensitivity. We examine how combining these approaches can improve surveillance for guiding interventions in low-income communities in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Rapid-antigen-testing with PCR validation was performed on 1172 symptomatically-identified individuals in their homes. Statistical models were fitted to predict PCR-status using rapid-antigen-test results, syndromic data, and their combination. Under contrasting epidemiological scenarios, the models' predictive and classification performance was evaluated. Models combining rapid-antigen-testing and syndromic data yielded equal-to-better performance to rapid-antigen-test-only models across all scenarios with their best performance in the epidemic growth scenario. These results show that drawing on complementary strengths across rapid diagnostics, improves COVID-19 detection, and reduces false-positive and -negative diagnoses to match local requirements; improvements achievable without additional expense, or changes for patients or practitioners.
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COVID-19 , Epidemias , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Vigilância de Evento SentinelaRESUMO
[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/ve/veaa046.].
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H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have caused outbreaks in poultry in Bangladesh since 2007. While clade 2.2.2 and 2.3.4.2 HPAIVs have not been detected since 2012, clade 2.3.2.1a viruses have caused continuous outbreaks since 2012 despite the use of vaccines. In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of two H5 vaccines licensed in Bangladesh, RE-6 inactivated vaccine, and a recombinant herpesvirus of turkeys vaccine with an H5 insert (rHVT-H5), for protection against recent field viruses in chickens. We selected three viruses for efficacy tests (A/chicken/Bangladesh/NRL-AI-3237/2017, A/crow/Bangladesh/NRL-AI-8471/2017 and A/chicken/Bangladesh/NRL-AI-8323/2017) from 36 H5 viruses isolated from Bangladesh between 2016 and 2018 by comparing the amino acid sequences at five antigenic sites (A-E) and analyzing hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers with reference antisera. The RE-6 and rHVT-H5 vaccines both conferred 80-100% clinical protection (i.e. reduced morbidity and mortality) against the three challenge viruses with no significant differences in protection. In addition, both vaccines significantly decreased viral shedding from infected chickens as compared to challenge control chickens. Based on these metrics, the current licensed H5 vaccines protected chickens against the recent field viruses. However, the A/crow/Bangladesh/NRL-AI-8471/2017 virus exhibited antigenic divergence including: several unique amino acid changes in antigenic epitope sites A and B and was a serological outlier in cross HI tests as visualized on the antigenic map. The continuing emergence of such antigenic variants which could alter the dominant antigenicity of field viruses should be continuously monitored and vaccines should be updated if field efficacy declines.
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Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Vacinas contra Influenza , Influenza Aviária , Animais , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Galinhas , Glicoproteínas de Hemaglutininação de Vírus da Influenza/genética , Influenza Aviária/prevenção & controleRESUMO
The participatory disease surveillance and response (PDSR) approach to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Indonesia has evolved significantly from the participatory disease surveillance (PDS) system developed for rinderpest eradication in Africa and Pakistan. The first phase of the PDSR project emphasized the detection and control of HPAI by separate PDS and participatory disease response teams primarily in sector 4 poultry at the household level. Lessons learned during the first phase were taken into account in the design of the second phase of the project, which has sought to further strengthen management of disease prevention and control activities by improving technical approaches, increasing active participation of key stakeholders, including local and central governments, and focusing on the village level. The ongoing evolution of the PDSR program aims to establish a sustainable community-based program within provincial and district livestock services that enhances the prevention and control of not only HPAI, but also other zoonotic and priority animal diseases.
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Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Medicina Veterinária/normas , Animais , Aves , Participação da Comunidade , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/diagnóstico , Influenza Aviária/prevenção & controle , Vigilância da PopulaçãoRESUMO
Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence-based decision-making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low-resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs.
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Influenza Aviária/virologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/virologia , Zoonoses , Criação de Animais Domésticos , Animais , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Comércio , Coleta de Dados , Humanos , Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1 , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Aves Domésticas , Saúde Pública , Fatores de Risco , Saneamento , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Asian lineage A/H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have been responsible for continuous outbreaks in Bangladesh since 2007. Although clades 2.2.2 and 2.3.4.2 HPAIVs have disappeared since poultry vaccination was introduced in 2012, clade 2.3.2.1a viruses have continued to be detected in Bangladesh. In this study, we identified A/H9N2 (n = 15), A/H5N1 (n = 19), and A/H5N1-A/H9N2 (n = 18) mixed viruses from live bird markets, chicken farms, and wild house crows (Corvus splendens) in Bangladesh from 2016 to 2018. We analyzed the genetic sequences of the H5 HPAIVs, to better understand the evolutionary history of clade 2.3.2.1a viruses in Bangladesh. Although seven HA genetic subgroups (B1-B7) and six genotypes (G1, G1.1, G1.2, G2, G2.1, and G2.2) have been identified in Bangladesh, only subgroup B7 and genotypes G2, G2.1, and G2.2 were detected after 2016. The replacement of G1 genotype by G2 in Bangladesh was possibly due to vaccination and viral competition in duck populations. Initially, genetic diversity decreased after introduction of vaccination in 2012, but in 2015, genetic diversity increased and was associated with the emergence of genotype G2. Our phylodynamic analysis suggests that domestic Anseriformes, including ducks and geese, may have played a major role in persistence, spread, evolution, and genotype replacement of clade 2.3.2.1a HPAIVs in Bangladesh. Thus, improvements in biosecurity and monitoring of domestic Anseriformes are needed for more effective control of HPAI in Bangladesh.
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Deaths of native scavenging pigs were reported in mid-November 2015 at Nageswari sub-district, Kurigram district of Bangladesh. The investigation for a suspected classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak was accomplished via a joint outbreak investigation team from Department of Livestock Services (DLS) and Food and Agriculture Organization, Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Disease (FAO-ECTAD), Bangladesh. Out of 592 pigs, 396 were infected and among them 263 died. The attack rate and case fatality rate were 66.9% and 66.4%, respectively. The epidemic curve constructed using the data captured from the CSF outbreak site was nearly bell-shaped, indicating a point source epidemic. The basic reproduction numbers (R0) were estimated to be 1.6 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 1.5-1.7) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.7) based on attack rate and exponential growth rate methods, respectively. Adult pigs showed signs of high fever, staggering gait and depression, whereas piglets either died without any premonitory signs or purulent exudates in the eyes were observed. Post-mortem examination was carried out on a 6-month-old piglet. The necropsy findings included were swollen lymph nodes deep red in colour, and haemorrhages on serous and mucous membranes of the intestinal organs together with button-like ulceration in the intestines. Nasal swabs and tissue samples (spleen, lung and liver) were tested using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and found to be positive for CSF virus. One-step RT-PCR was used to amplify 1,148 base pair of E2 gene in extracted RNA and was sequenced using standard Sanger's sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the virus as genotype 2.2 that clustered with CSF virus sequences from Bangladesh and India. This is only the second report of a CSF outbreak in Bangladesh. CSF appears to be an emerging transboundary disease in this country. A special programme for controlling swine diseases is needed since pigs are being reared by marginalized communities of Bangladesh to provide livelihoods and food security.
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In the re-emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), live bird markets have been identified to play a critical role. In this repeated cross-sectional study, we combined surveillance data collected monthly on Jakarta's live bird markets over a five-year period, with risk factors related to the structure and management of live bird markets, the trading and slaughtering of birds at these markets, and environmental and demographic conditions in the areas where the markets were located. Over the study period 36.7% (95% CI: 35.1, 38.3) of samples (N = 1315) tested HPAI H5 virus positive. Using General Estimation Equation approaches to account for repeated observations over time, we explored the association between HPAI H5 virus prevalence and potential risk factors. Markets where only live birds and carcasses were sold, but no slaughtering was conducted at or at the vicinity of the markets, had a significantly reduced chance of being positive for H5 virus (OR = 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Also, markets, that used display tables for poultry carcasses made from wood, had reduced odds of being H5 virus positive (OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0), while having at least one duck sample included in the pool of samples collected at the market increased the chance of being H5 virus positive (OR = 5.7, 95% CI 3.6-9.2). Markets where parent stock was traded, were more at risk of being H5 virus positive compared to markets where broilers were traded. Finally, the human population density in the district, the average distance between markets and origins of poultry sold at markets and the total rainfall per month were all positively associated with higher H5 virus prevalence. In summary, our results highlight that a combination of factors related to trading and marketing processes and environmental pressures need to be considered to reduce H5 virus infection risk for customers at urban live bird markets. In particular, the relocation of slaughter areas to well-managed separate locations should be considered.
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Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1/patogenicidade , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/epidemiologia , Animais , Galinhas/virologia , Patos/virologia , Monitoramento Ambiental , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Influenza Aviária/virologia , Aves Domésticas/virologia , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/transmissão , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/virologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
One of the key strategic objectives of the World Health Organisation's global antimicrobial resistance (AMR) action plan is to improve public awareness and understanding of this issue. Very few AMR awareness campaigns have targeted the animal production sector, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where rural communities can be geographically difficult to access via traditional face-to-face community engagement methods. Aquaculture is a major food production industry in Bangladesh and across Asia, an area which poses a significant risk to global AMR dissemination. In this pilot study, we sought to investigate the potential for digital communication materials to rapidly and effectively communicate AMR messages to rural aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh. Working with stakeholders from the Bangladesh aquaculture industry, we developed a 4-minute digital animation designed specifically for this audience and assessed its capacity to engage and communicate AMR messages to farmers. We then conducted a small-scale social media campaign, to determine the potential for rapidly disseminating AMR awareness materials to a large audience across Bangladesh, where there is an extensive 4 G internet network and an ever-increasing proportion of the population (57% as of December 2019) have mobile internet access. Thirty-six farmers were surveyed: all of them liked this method of communication and 97% said it would change the way they use antibiotics in the future. Through the social media campaign, the animation received 9,100 views in the first 2 weeks alone. Although preliminary, these results demonstrate the huge potential for digital communication methods for the rapid and widespread communication of AMR awareness materials to rural aquaculture communities in Bangladesh and across Asia. Our results support the need for more research into the most appropriate and effective content of AMR awareness campaigns for aquaculture communities and question the need for explaining the science underlying AMR in such communication materials.
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Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Conscientização , Comunicação , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Pesqueiros , Internet , População Rural , Animais , Ásia , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Projetos Piloto , Pobreza , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R(0), of rabies in dogs, to be ~1 · 2, almost identical to that obtained in ten-fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.
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Erradicação de Doenças/organização & administração , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/prevenção & controle , Raiva/veterinária , Animais , Número Básico de Reprodução , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Cães , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Vacinação em Massa/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Densidade Demográfica , Raiva/epidemiologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Vacina Antirrábica/administração & dosagem , Vacina Antirrábica/imunologiaRESUMO
In 2008, the Indonesian Government implemented a revised village-level Participatory Disease Surveillance and Response (PDSR) program to gain a better understanding of both the magnitude and spatial distribution of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in backyard poultry. To date, there has been considerable collection of data, but limited publically available analysis. This study utilizes data collected by the PDSR program between April 2008 and September 2010 for Java, Bali and the Lampung Province of Sumatra. The analysis employs hierarchical Bayesian occurrence models to quantify spatial and temporal dynamics in backyard HPAI infection reports at the District level in 90 day time periods, and relates the probability of HPAI occurrence to PDSR-reported village HPAI infection status and human and poultry density. The probability of infection in a District was assumed to be dependent on the status of the District in the previous 90 day time period, and described by either a colonization probability (the probability of HPAI infection in a District given there had not been infection in the previous 90 day time period) or a persistence probability (the probability of HPAI infection being maintained in the District from the previous to current 90 day period). Results suggest that the number of surveillance activities in a district had little relationship to outbreak occurrence probabilities, but human and poultry densities were found to have non-linear relationships to outbreak occurrence probabilities. We found significant spatial dependency among neighboring districts, indicating that there are latent spatial processes that are not captured by the covariates available for this study, but which nonetheless impact outbreak dynamics. The results of this work may help improve understanding of the seasonal nature of H5N1 in poultry and the potential role of poultry density in enabling endemicity to occur, as well as to assist the Government of Indonesia target scarce resources to regions and time periods when outbreaks of HPAI in poultry are most likely to occur.