Deuterium Isotope Effect in Single Molecule Photophysics and Photochemistry of Hypericin.

The peripherical protons of the dye molecule hypericin can undergo structural interconversion (tautomerization) between different isomers through separated by a low energy barrier with rates that depends sensitively on the interaction with local chemical environment defined by the nature of host material. We investigate the deuterium (D) isotope effect of hypericin tautomerism at the single-molecule level to avoid ensemble averaging in different polymer matrices by a combined spectroscopic and computational approach. In the 'innocent' PMMA matrix only intramolecular isotope effects on the internal conversion channel and tautomerization are observed; while PVA specifically interacts with the probe via H- and D-bonding. This establishes a single molecular picture on intra- and intermolecular nano-environment effects to control chromophore photophysics and -chemistry.

Prevalence and risk factors of detectable HIV viral load among pregnant women with HIV infection seeking antenatal care in Southern Malawi.

We evaluated detectable viral load (VL) in pregnant women established on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for at least 6 months before conception and those self-reported as ART naïve at first antenatal care (ANC) at two government clinics in Southern Malawi. We used logistic regression to identify the predictors of detectable viral load (VL), defined as any measure greater than 400 copies/ml. Of 816 women, 67.9% were established on ART and 32.1% self-reported as ART naïve. Among women established on ART, 10.8% had detectable VL and 9.9% had VL >1000 copies/ml (WHO criteria for virological failure). In adjusted analysis, among women established on ART, virological failure was associated with younger age (p = .02), "being single/widowed" (p = 0.001) and no previous deliveries (p = .05). One fifth of women who reported to be ART-naive were found to have an undetectable VL at first ANC. None of the demographic factors could significantly differentiate those with high versus low VL in the ART-naïve sub-sample. In this cohort, approximately 90% of women who had initiated ART prior to conception had an undetectable VL at first ANC. This demonstrates good success of the ART program but identifies high risk populations that require additional support.

Whole-genome analysis of Malawian Plasmodium falciparum isolates identifies possible targets of allele-specific immunity to clinical malaria.

Individuals acquire immunity to clinical malaria after repeated Plasmodium falciparum infections. Immunity to disease is thought to reflect the acquisition of a repertoire of responses to multiple alleles in diverse parasite antigens. In previous studies, we identified polymorphic sites within individual antigens that are associated with parasite immune evasion by examining antigen allele dynamics in individuals followed longitudinally. Here we expand this approach by analyzing genome-wide polymorphisms using whole genome sequence data from 140 parasite isolates representing malaria cases from a longitudinal study in Malawi and identify 25 genes that encode possible targets of naturally acquired immunity that should be validated immunologically and further characterized for their potential as vaccine candidates.

Etiology, Presentation, and Risk Factors for Diarrheal Syndromes in 3 Sub-Saharan African Countries After the Introduction of Rotavirus Vaccines From the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) Study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal disease is heterogeneous, including watery diarrhea (WD) and dysentery, some cases of which become persistent diarrhea (PD). Changes in risk over time necessitate updated knowledge of these syndromes in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa (VIDA) study was an age-stratified, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea among children <5 years old in The Gambia, Mali, and Kenya (2015-2018). We analyzed cases with follow-up of about 60 days after enrollment to detect PD (lasting ≥14 days), examined the features of WD and dysentery, and examined determinants for progression to and sequelae from PD. Data were compared with those from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to detect temporal changes. Etiology was assessed from stool samples using pathogen attributable fractions (AFs), and predictors were assessed using χ2 tests or multivariate regression, where appropriate. RESULTS: Among 4606 children with moderate-to-severe diarrhea, 3895 (84.6%) had WD and 711 (15.4%) had dysentery. PD was more frequent among infants (11.3%) than in children 12-23 months (9.9%) or 24-59 months (7.3%), P = .001 and higher in Kenya (15.5%) than in The Gambia (9.3%) or Mali (4.3%), P < .001; the frequencies were similar among children with WD (9.7%) and those with dysentery (9.4%). Compared to children not treated with antibiotics, those who received antibiotics had a lower frequency of PD overall (7.4% vs 10.1%, P = .01), and particularly among those with WD (6.3% vs 10.0%; P = .01) but not among children with dysentery (8.5% vs 11.0%; P = .27). For those with watery PD, Cryptosporidium and norovirus had the highest AFs among infants (0.16 and 0.12, respectively), while Shigella had the highest AF (0.25) in older children. The odds of PD decreased significantly over time in Mali and Kenya while increasing significantly in The Gambia. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of PD endures in sub-Saharan Africa, with nearly 10% of episodes of WD and dysentery becoming persistent.

Plasmodium falciparum infection and disease in infancy associated with increased risk of malaria and anaemia in childhood.

BACKGROUND: Infants under 6 months of age are often excluded from malaria surveillance and observational studies. The impact of malaria during early infancy on health later in childhood remains unknown. METHODS: Infants from two birth cohorts in Malawi were monitored at quarterly intervals and whenever they were ill from birth through 24 months for Plasmodium falciparum infections and clinical malaria. Poisson regression and linear mixed effects models measured the effect of exposure to malaria in infancy on subsequent malaria incidence, weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ), and haemoglobin concentrations after 6 months. RESULTS: Infants with at least one P. falciparum infection during their first 6 months had increased incidence ratio (IRR) of P. falciparum infection (IRR = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.06-1.52) and clinical malaria (IRR = 2.37, 95% CI, 2.02-2.80) compared to infants without infection. Infants with clinical malaria had increased risk of P. falciparum infection incidence between 6 and 24 months (IRR = 1.64, 95% CI, 1.38-1.94) and clinical malaria (IRR = 1.85, 95% CI, 1.48-2.32). Exposure to malaria was associated with lower WAZ over time (p = 0.02) and lower haemoglobin levels than unexposed infants at every time interval (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Infants experiencing malaria infection or clinical malaria are at increased risk of subsequent infection and disease, have poorer growth, and lower haemoglobin concentrations.

Artemether-lumefantrine efficacy among adults on antiretroviral therapy in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: When people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (PWH) develop malaria, they are at risk of poor anti-malarial treatment efficacy resulting from impairment in the immune response and/or drug-drug interactions that alter anti-malarial metabolism. The therapeutic efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine was evaluated in a cohort of PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and included measurement of day 7 lumefantrine levels in a subset to evaluate for associations between lumefantrine exposure and treatment response. METHODS: Adults living with HIV (≥ 18 years), on ART for ≥ 6 months with undetectable HIV RNA viral load and CD4 count ≥ 250/mm3 were randomized to daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS), weekly chloroquine (CQ) or no prophylaxis. After diagnosis of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria, a therapeutic efficacy monitoring was conducted with PCR-correction according to WHO guidelines. The plasma lumefantrine levels on day 7 in 100 episodes of uncomplicated malaria was measured. A frailty proportional hazards model with random effects models to account for clustering examined the relationship between participant characteristics and malaria treatment failure within 28 days. Pearson's Chi-squared test was used to compare lumefantrine concentrations among patients with treatment failure and adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR). RESULTS: 411 malaria episodes were observed among 186 participants over 5 years. The unadjusted ACPR rate was 81% (95% CI 77-86). However, after PCR correction to exclude new infections, ACPR rate was 94% (95% CI 92-97). Increasing age and living in Ndirande were associated with decreased hazard of treatment failure. In this population of adults with HIV on ART, 54% (51/94) had levels below a previously defined optimal day 7 lumefantrine level of 200 ng/ml. This occurred more commonly among participants who were receiving an efavirenz-based ART compared to other ART regimens (OR 5.09 [95% CI 1.52-7.9]). Participants who experienced treatment failure had lower day 7 median lumefantrine levels (91 ng/ml [95% CI 48-231]) than participants who experienced ACPR (190 ng/ml [95% CI 101-378], p-value < 0.008). CONCLUSION: Recurrent malaria infections are frequent in this population of PWH on ART. The PCR-adjusted efficacy of AL meets the WHO criteria for acceptable treatment efficacy. Nevertheless, lumefantrine levels tend to be low in this population, particularly in those on efavirenz-based regimens, with lower concentrations associated with more frequent malaria infections following treatment. These results highlight the importance of understanding drug-drug interactions when diseases commonly co-occur.

School-Based Malaria Screening and Treatment Reduces Plasmodium falciparum Infection and Anemia Prevalence in Two Transmission Settings in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: In areas highly endemic for malaria, Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence peaks in school-age children, adversely affecting health and education. School-based intermittent preventive treatment reduces this burden but concerns about cost and widespread use of antimalarial drugs limit enthusiasm for this approach. School-based screening and treatment is an attractive alternative. In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the impact of school-based screening and treatment on the prevalence of P. falciparum infection and anemia in 2 transmission settings. METHODS: We screened 704 students in 4 Malawian primary schools for P. falciparum infection using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and treated students who tested positive with artemether-lumefantrine. We determined P. falciparum infection by microscopy and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and hemoglobin concentrations over 6 weeks in all students. RESULTS: Prevalence of infection by RDT screening was 37% (9%-64% among schools). An additional 9% of students had infections detected by qPCR. Following the intervention, significant reductions in infections were detected by microscopy (adjusted relative reduction [aRR], 48.8%; P < .0001) and qPCR (aRR, 24.5%; P < .0001), and in anemia prevalence (aRR, 30.8%; P = .003). Intervention impact was reduced by infections not detected by RDT and new infections following treatment. CONCLUSIONS: School-based screening and treatment reduced P. falciparum infection and anemia. This approach could be enhanced by repeating screening, using more-sensitive screening tests, and providing longer-acting drugs. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04858087.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Neutralizing Antibodies at Birth Predict Protection from RSV Illness in Infants in the First 3 Months of Life.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of viral pneumonia and bronchiolitis during the first 6 months of life. Placentally transferred antibodies can prevent severe RSV illness, and maternal immunization may reduce illness in young infants. Identification of protective antibody levels facilitates the advancement of vaccine candidates and maternal immunization. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study with 587 Malian mother-infant pairs, followed from birth to age 6 months. RSV cases were infants who developed influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia and were RSV-positive by polymerase chain reaction. Cases were matched to healthy controls and RSV-negative ILI controls. RSV-A and RSV-B neutralizing antibodies were measured in maternal, cord blood, and infant sera at age 3 and 6 months. RESULTS: Maternal antibodies were efficiently transferred to infants. Maternal and infant RSV titers were strongly correlated. Infant antibody titers against RSV-A were 3 times higher than those against RSV-B. At birth, infants who remained healthy had significantly higher RSV-A and RSV-B titers compared with infants who subsequently contracted RSV. RSV-A inhibitory concentration (IC)80 titer >239 or RSV-B titer >60 at birth was significantly associated with being a healthy control compared with an RSV case within the first 3 months of life. RSV-A IC80 titers in cord blood were associated with decreased episodes of pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Maternally acquired RSV antibodies were associated with protection of infants against community-detected cases of RSV-ILI and pneumonia. RSV titers in cord blood can predict whether an infant will be infected with RSV or remain uninfected.

Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USA‒specific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease‒related policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During March‒June 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs. Early coronavirus disease policy measures, including a stay-at-home order, were accompanied by substantial decreases in mobility and reduced the effective reproductive number well below 1. When some restrictions were eased in late April, mobility increased to near baseline levels, but transmission remained low (effective reproductive number <1) through early June. Over time, our model parameters were adjusted to more closely reflect reality in Colorado, leading to modest changes in estimates of intervention effects and more conservative long-term projections.

Human Mobility Associated With Risk of Schistosoma japonicum Infection in Sichuan, China.

Urbanization increases human mobility in ways that can alter the transmission of classically rural, vector-borne diseases like schistosomiasis. The impact of human mobility on individual-level Schistosoma risk is poorly characterized. Travel outside endemic areas may protect against infection by reducing exposure opportunities, whereas travel to other endemic regions may increase risk. Using detailed monthly travel- and water-contact surveys from 27 rural communities in Sichuan, China, in 2008, we aimed to describe human mobility and to identify mobility-related predictors of S. japonicum infection. Candidate predictors included timing, frequency, distance, duration, and purpose of recent travel as well as water-contact measures. Random forests machine learning was used to detect key predictors of individual infection status. Logistic regression was used to assess the strength and direction of associations. Key mobility-related predictors include frequent travel and travel during July-both associated with decreased probability of infection and less time engaged in risky water-contact behavior, suggesting travel may remove opportunities for schistosome exposure. The importance of July travel and July water contact suggests a high-risk window for cercarial exposure. The frequency and timing of human movement out of endemic areas should be considered when assessing potential drivers of rural infectious diseases.

Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Newborns in Bamako, Mali.

BACKGROUND: Few studies describe the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden in African populations, and most have utilized hospital-based surveillance. In Mali, no community-based studies exist of the incidence or epidemiology of RSV infection. This study provides the first estimates of RSV incidence in Mali. METHODS: In a cohort of infants enrolled in a clinical trial of maternal influenza vaccination, we estimate incidence of RSV-associated febrile illness in the first 6 months of life and identify risk factors for RSV infection and progression to severe disease. Infants (N = 1871) were followed from birth to 6 months of age and visited weekly to detect pneumonia and influenza-like illness. Baseline covariates were explored as risk factors for RSV febrile illness and RSV pneumonia or hospitalization. RESULTS: Incidence of RSV illness was estimated at 536.8 per 1000 person-years, and 86% (131/153) of RSV illness episodes were positive for RSV-B. RSV illness was most frequent in the fifth month of life and associated with having older mothers and with lower parity. The incidence of RSV-associated hospitalizations was 45.6 per 1000 person-years. Among infants with RSV illness, males were more likely to be hospitalized. The incidence of RSV pneumonia was 29 cases per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: In the first 6 months of life, Malian infants have a high incidence of RSV illness, primarily caused by RSV-B. Prevention of early RSV will require passive protection via maternal immunization in pregnancy. Mali is the first country where RSV-B has been identified as the dominant subtype, with potential implications for vaccine development.

Submicroscopic malaria infection is not associated with fever in cross-sectional studies in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum infections are widespread in many areas. However, the contribution of these infections to symptomatic malaria is not well understood. This study evaluated whether participants with submicroscopic P. falciparum infections have higher prevalence of fever than uninfected participants in southern Malawi. METHODS: A total of 16,650 children and adults were enrolled in the course of six cross-sectional surveys during the dry season (October-November) and after the rainy season (April-May) between 2012 and 2014 in three districts in southern Malawi. Demographic and socioeconomic data were collected in conjunction with data on clinical histories, use of malaria preventive measures, and anti-malarial medication taken within 2 weeks of the survey. Axillary temperatures were measured, and blood samples were collected for P. falciparum detection by microscopy and PCR. Participants without malaria parasites detected on microscopy but with a positive PCR for P. falciparum were defined as having submicroscopic infection. Fever was defined as having any one of: reported fever in the past 2 weeks, reported fever in the past 48 h, or a temperature of ≥ 37.5 °C measured at the time of interview. RESULTS: Submicroscopic P. falciparum infections and fever were both detected in 9% of the study population. In the final analysis adjusted for clustering within household and enumeration area, having submicroscopic P. falciparum infection was associated with reduced odds of fever in the dry season (odds ratio = 0.52; 95% CI 0.33-0.82); the association in the rainy season did not achieve statistical significance (odds ratio = 1.20; 95% CI 0.91-1.59). The association between submicroscopic infection and fever was consistent across all age groups. When the definition of fever was limited to temperature of ≥ 37.5 °C measured at the time of interview, the association was not statistically significant in either the rainy or dry season. CONCLUSIONS: In this series of cross-sectional studies in southern Malawi, submicroscopic P. falciparum infection was not associated with increased risk of fever. Submicroscopic detection of the malaria parasite is important in efforts to decrease transmission but is not essential for the clinical recognition of malaria disease.

Clinical Implications of Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infections in Malawi.

Background: Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in Malawi; however, the implications of these infections for the burden of malaria illness are unknown. Whether asymptomatic infections eventually progress to malaria illness, persist without causing symptoms, or clear spontaneously remains undetermined. We identified asymptomatic infections and evaluated the associations between persistent asymptomatic infections and malaria illness. Methods: Children and adults (N = 120) who presented at a health facility with uncomplicated malaria were followed monthly for 2 years. During follow-up visits, participants with malaria symptoms were tested and, if positive, treated. Samples from all visits were tested for parasites using both microscopy and polymerase chain reaction, and all malaria infections underwent genotyping. Cox frailty models were used to estimate the temporal association between asymptomatic infections and malaria illness episodes. Mixed models were used to estimate the odds of clinical symptoms associated with new versus persistent infections. Results: Participants had a median follow-up time of 720 days. Asymptomatic infections were detected during 23% of visits. Persistent asymptomatic infections were associated with decreased risk of malaria illness in all ages (hazard ratio 0.50, P < .001). When asymptomatic infections preceded malaria illness, newly-acquired infections were detected at 92% of subsequent clinical episodes, independent of presence of persistent infections. Malaria illness among children was more likely due to newly-acquired infections (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-1.5) than to persistent infections. Conclusions: Asymptomatic P. falciparum infections are associated with decreased incidence of malaria illness, but do not protect against disease when new infection occurs.

Association Between Age and Plasmodium falciparum Infection Dynamics.

Few data exist on the incidence or duration of natural Plasmodium falciparum infections in high-transmission settings. School-aged children (SAC) carry a disproportionate burden of infections, suggesting either increased incidence or increased duration. We estimated the incidence and duration of unique infections according to age groups. The Mfera Cohort Study (2014-2017) in Malawi had 2 years of follow-up, with 120 participants tested monthly and during sick visits. Blood samples were collected to detect P. falciparum by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction. Positive samples underwent genotyping. Simulation was used to account for high rates of nondetection of infection among low-parasitemia infections, which increase in frequency with age. Adults had significantly fewer unique infections per person per year (median, 2.5) compared with SAC and children younger than 5 years of age (6.3 and 6.6, respectively). Over half of all genotypes were persistent. Infections lasted significantly longer in adults (median, 180 days) and SAC (median, 163 days) compared with children younger than 5 years of age (median, 97 days), after accounting for age-dependent nondetection of infection. SAC acquired new infections at the same rate as children younger than 5 years, but they maintained these infections for longer periods of time, similar to adults. This study provides new insights into P. falciparum infection dynamics that should be considered when designing malaria control strategies.

Net age, but not integrity, may be associated with decreased protection against Plasmodium falciparum infection in southern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Distribution campaigns for insecticide-treated nets (ITN) have increased the use of ITNs in Malawi, but malaria prevalence remains high even among those using the nets. Previous studies have addressed ITN ownership, insecticide resistance, and frequency of ITN use as possible contributing factors to the high prevalence of malaria infection despite high ITN coverage, but have rarely considered whether the condition of the ITN, or how many people use it, impacts efficacy. This study assessed how ITN integrity, ITN age, and the number of persons sharing a net might mitigate or reduce protective efficacy among self-identified ITN users in Malawi. METHODS: From 2012 to 2014, six cross-sectional surveys were conducted in both the rainy and dry seasons in southern Malawi. Data were collected on ITN use, integrity (number and size of holes), and age. Blood samples for detecting Plasmodium falciparum infection were obtained from reported ITN users over 6 months of age. Generalized linear mixed models were used to account for clustering at the household and community level. The final model controlled for gender, household eaves, and community-level infection prevalence during the rainy season. RESULTS: There were 9646 ITN users with blood samples across six surveys, 15% of whom tested positive for P. falciparum infection. Among children under 5 years old, there was a 50% increased odds of P. falciparum infection among those sleeping under an ITN older than two years, compared to those using an ITN less than 2 years old (OR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.07-2.08). ITN integrity and number of individuals sharing an ITN were not associated with P. falciparum infection. CONCLUSIONS: Older ITNs were associated with higher rates of P. falciparum in young children, which may indicate that insecticide concentrations play a larger role in infection prevention than the physical barrier of an ITN. ITN use was self-reported and the integrity measures lacked the precision of newer methods, suggesting a need for objective measures of ITN use and more precise assessment of ITN integrity.

Systematic review of analytical methods applied to longitudinal studies of malaria.

BACKGROUND: Modelling risk of malaria in longitudinal studies is common, because individuals are at risk for repeated infections over time. Malaria infections result in acquired immunity to clinical malaria disease. Prospective cohorts are an ideal design to relate the historical exposure to infection and development of clinical malaria over time, and analysis methods should consider the longitudinal nature of the data. Models must take into account the acquisition of immunity to disease that increases with each infection and the heterogeneous exposure to bites from infected Anopheles mosquitoes. Methods that fail to capture these important factors in malaria risk will not accurately model risk of malaria infection or disease. METHODS: Statistical methods applied to prospective cohort studies of clinical malaria or Plasmodium falciparum infection and disease were reviewed to assess trends in usage of the appropriate statistical methods. The study was designed to test the hypothesis that studies often fail to use appropriate statistical methods but that this would improve with the recent increase in accessibility to and expertise in longitudinal data analysis. RESULTS: Of 197 articles reviewed, the most commonly reported methods included contingency tables which comprised Pearson Chi-square, Fisher exact and McNemar's tests (n = 102, 51.8%), Student's t-tests (n = 82, 41.6%), followed by Cox models (n = 62, 31.5%) and Kaplan-Meier estimators (n = 59, 30.0%). The longitudinal analysis methods generalized estimating equations and mixed-effects models were reported in 41 (20.8%) and 24 (12.2%) articles, respectively, and increased in use over time. A positive trend in choice of more appropriate analytical methods was identified over time. CONCLUSIONS: Despite similar study designs across the reports, the statistical methods varied substantially and often represented overly simplistic models of risk. The results underscore the need for more effort to be channelled towards adopting standardized longitudinal methods to analyse prospective cohort studies of malaria infection and disease.

Simulation models predict that school-age children are responsible for most human-to-mosquito Plasmodium falciparum transmission in southern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Malaria persists in some high-transmission areas despite extensive control efforts. Progress toward elimination may require effective targeting of specific human populations that act as key transmission reservoirs. METHODS: Parameterized using molecular-based Plasmodium falciparum infection data from cross-sectional community studies in southern Malawi, a simulation model was developed to predict the proportions of human-to-mosquito transmission arising from (a) children under 5 years old (U5s), (b) school-age children (SAC, 5-15 years), (c) young adults (16-30 years), and (d) adults > 30 years. The model incorporates mosquito biting heterogeneity and differential infectivity (i.e. probability that a blood-fed mosquito develops oocysts) by age and gametocyte density. RESULTS: The model predicted that SAC were responsible for more than 60% of new mosquito infections in both dry and rainy seasons, even though they comprise only 30% of this southern Malawi population. Young adults were the second largest contributors, while U5s and adults over 30 were each responsible for < 10% of transmission. While the specific predicted values are sensitive to the relative infectiousness of SAC, this group remained the most important contributor to mosquito infections under all realistic estimates. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that U5 children play a small role compared to SAC in maintaining P. falciparum transmission in southern Malawi. Models that assume biting homogeneity overestimate the importance of U5s. To reduce transmission, interventions will need to reach more SAC and young adults. This publicly available model can be used by others to estimate age-specific transmission contributions in epidemiologically similar sites with local parameter estimates of P. falciparum prevalence and bed net use.

Insecticide-treated net effectiveness at preventing Plasmodium falciparum infection varies by age and season.

BACKGROUND: After increasing coverage of malaria interventions, malaria prevalence remains high in Malawi. Previous studies focus on the impact of malaria interventions among children under 5 years old. However, in Malawi, the prevalence of infection is highest in school-aged children (SAC), ages 5 to 15 years. This study examined the interaction between age group and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use for preventing individual and community-level infection in Malawi. METHODS: Six cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the rainy and dry seasons in southern Malawi from 2012 to 2014. Data were collected on household ITN usage and demographics. Blood samples for detection of Plasmodium falciparum infection were obtained from all household members present and over 6 months of age. Generalized linear mixed models were used to account for clustering at the household and community level. RESULTS: There were 17,538 observations from six surveys. The association between ITN use and infection varied by season in SAC, but not in other age groups. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for infection comparing ITN users to non-users among SAC in the rainy season and dry season was 0.78 (95% CI 0.56, 1.10) and 0.51 (0.35, 0.74), respectively. The effect of ITN use did not differ between children under five and adults. Among all non-SACs the OR for infection was 0.78 (0.64, 0.95) in those who used ITNs compared to those that did not. Community net use did not protect against infection. CONCLUSIONS: Protection against infection with ITN use varies by age group and season. Individual estimates of protection are moderate and a community-level effect was not detected. Additional interventions to decrease malaria prevalence are needed in Malawi.

Bed net use among school-aged children after a universal bed net campaign in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Recent data from Malawi suggest that school-aged children (SAC), aged 5-15 years, have the highest prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection among all age groups. They are the least likely group to utilize insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), the most commonly available intervention to prevent malaria in Africa. This study examined the effects of a universal ITN distribution campaign, and their durability over time in SAC in Malawi. This study identified factors that influence net usage among SAC and how these factors changed over time. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys using cluster random sampling were conducted at the end of each rainy and dry season in southern Malawi from 2012 to 2014; six surveys were done in total. Mass net distribution occurred between the first and second surveys. Data were collected on household and individual net usage as well as demographic information. Statistical analyses used generalized linear mixed models to account for clustering at the household and neighbourhood level. RESULTS: There were 7347 observations from SAC and 14,785 from young children and adults. SAC used nets significantly less frequently than the rest of the population (odds ratio (OR) from 0.14 to 0.38). The most important predictors of net usage among SAC were a lower ratio of people to nets in a household and higher proportion of nets that were hanging at the time of survey. Older SAC (11-15 years) were significantly less likely to use nets than younger SAC (5-10 years) [OR = 0.24 (95 % CI: 0.21, 0.28)]. The universal bed net campaign led to a statistically significant population-wide increase in net use, however net use returned to near baseline within 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a single universal net distribution campaign, in combination with routine distribution through health clinics is not sufficient to cause a sustained increase in net usage among SAC. Novel approaches to ITN distribution, such as school-based distribution, may be needed to address the high prevalence of infection in SAC.

Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? evidence from cell-phone data.

There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens.