Polygenic risk score adds to a clinical risk score in the prediction of cardiovascular disease in a clinical setting.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A cardiovascular disease polygenic risk score (CVD-PRS) can stratify individuals into different categories of cardiovascular risk, but whether the addition of a CVD-PRS to clinical risk scores improves the identification of individuals at increased risk in a real-world clinical setting is unknown. METHODS: The Genetics and the Vascular Health Check Study (GENVASC) was embedded within the UK National Health Service Health Check (NHSHC) programme which invites individuals between 40-74 years of age without known CVD to attend an assessment in a UK general practice where CVD risk factors are measured and a CVD risk score (QRISK2) is calculated. Between 2012-2020, 44,141 individuals (55.7% females, 15.8% non-white) who attended an NHSHC in 147 participating practices across two counties in England were recruited and followed. When 195 individuals (cases) had suffered a major CVD event (CVD death, myocardial infarction or acute coronary syndrome, coronary revascularisation, stroke), 396 propensity-matched controls with a similar risk profile were identified, and a nested case-control genetic study undertaken to see if the addition of a CVD-PRS to QRISK2 in the form of an integrated risk tool (IRT) combined with QRISK2 would have identified more individuals at the time of their NHSHC as at high risk (QRISK2 10-year CVD risk of ≥10%), compared with QRISK2 alone. RESULTS: The distribution of the standardised CVD-PRS was significantly different in cases compared with controls (cases mean score .32; controls, -.18, P = 8.28×10-9). QRISK2 identified 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3%-68.4%) of individuals who subsequently developed a major CVD event as being at high risk at their NHSHC, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 68.7% (95% CI: 61.7%-75.2%), a relative increase of 11.7% (P = 1×10-4). The odds ratio (OR) of being up-classified was 2.41 (95% CI: 1.03-5.64, P = .031) for cases compared with controls. In individuals aged 40-54 years, QRISK2 identified 26.0% (95% CI: 16.5%-37.6%) of those who developed a major CVD event, while the combination of QRISK2 and IRT identified 38.4% (95% CI: 27.2%-50.5%), indicating a stronger relative increase of 47.7% in the younger age group (P = .001). The combination of QRISK2 and IRT increased the proportion of additional cases identified similarly in women as in men, and in non-white ethnicities compared with white ethnicity. The findings were similar when the CVD-PRS was added to the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equations (ASCVD-PCE) or SCORE2 clinical scores. CONCLUSIONS: In a clinical setting, the addition of genetic information to clinical risk assessment significantly improved the identification of individuals who went on to have a major CVD event as being at high risk, especially among younger individuals. The findings provide important real-world evidence of the potential value of implementing a CVD-PRS into health systems.

Exploration of the regional effects of colchicine in the LoDoCo2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The Low Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial randomized 5,522 patients with chronic coronary disease to colchicine 0.5mg daily or placebo in a 1:1 ratio and demonstrated the cardiovascular benefits of colchicine. In the trial, which was conducted in Australia and The Netherlands, a prespecified subgroup analysis suggested a difference in magnitude of treatment effect of colchicine by region (Australia: HR 0.51; 95% CI 0.39-0.67 vs The Netherlands: HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.71-1.20). The aim of this study was to explore possible explanations for the apparent difference in magnitude of treatment effect of colchicine by region in the LoDoCo2 trial. METHODS: The analysis explored potential determinants of variations in the magnitude of effectiveness of colchicine treatment across the regions. This included investigating differences in investigational product, clinical characteristics, concurrent medical therapies and the duration of follow-up using a range of statistical techniques, including sub-group, landmark and effect modification analyses. RESULTS: No differences were found in the colchicine product used in each region. Despite minor differences observed in baseline clinical characteristics and concomitant therapies, the effect modifier analyses demonstrated that these factors did not explain the difference in magnitude of treatment effect of colchicine by region. Randomization in Australia began more than 2 years before The Netherlands, with shorter duration of follow-up in The Netherlands compared to Australia. In a landmark analysis, over the period when more than 90% of patients in each region had been followed, the effects of colchicine were similar (Australia hazard ratio [HR] 0.58; 95% CI 0.34-0.97 vs The Netherlands HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.47-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: After examining several plausible explanations for the observed differences in the magnitude of treatment effect of colchicine between regions in the LoDoCo2 trial could be due to the differences in duration of follow-up but a substantial portion of the differences remain unexplained. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12614000093684.

Organizational readiness and implementation fidelity of an early childhood education and care-specific physical activity policy intervention: findings from the Play Active trial.

BACKGROUND: Many children do not accumulate sufficient physical activity for good health and development at early childhood education and care (ECEC). This study examined the association between ECEC organizational readiness and implementation fidelity of an ECEC-specific physical activity policy intervention. METHODS: Play Active aimed to improve the ECEC educator's physical activity practices. We investigated the implementation of Play Active using a Type 1 hybrid study (January 2021-March 2022). Associations between organizational readiness factors and service-level implementation fidelity were examined using linear regressions. Fidelity data were collected from project records, educator surveys and website analytics. RESULTS: ECEC services with higher levels of organizational commitment and capacity at pre-implementation reported higher fidelity scores compared to services with lower organizational commitment and capacity (all Ps < 0.05). Similarly, services who perceived intervention acceptability and appropriateness at pre-implementation to be high had higher fidelity scores (P < 0.05). Perceived feasibility and organizational efficacy of Play Active were associated with higher but nonsignificant fidelity scores. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that organizational readiness factors may influence the implementation of ECEC-specific physical activity policy interventions. Therefore, strategies to improve organizational readiness should be developed and tested. These findings warrant confirmation in the ECEC and other settings and with other health behavior interventions.

Colchicine in Patients with Chronic Coronary Disease.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from a recent trial has shown that the antiinflammatory effects of colchicine reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with recent myocardial infarction, but evidence of such a risk reduction in patients with chronic coronary disease is limited. METHODS: In a randomized, controlled, double-blind trial, we assigned patients with chronic coronary disease to receive 0.5 mg of colchicine once daily or matching placebo. The primary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, spontaneous (nonprocedural) myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or ischemia-driven coronary revascularization. The key secondary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, spontaneous myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. RESULTS: A total of 5522 patients underwent randomization; 2762 were assigned to the colchicine group and 2760 to the placebo group. The median duration of follow-up was 28.6 months. A primary end-point event occurred in 187 patients (6.8%) in the colchicine group and in 264 patients (9.6%) in the placebo group (incidence, 2.5 vs. 3.6 events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 0.83; P<0.001). A key secondary end-point event occurred in 115 patients (4.2%) in the colchicine group and in 157 patients (5.7%) in the placebo group (incidence, 1.5 vs. 2.1 events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.92; P = 0.007). The incidence rates of spontaneous myocardial infarction or ischemia-driven coronary revascularization (composite end point), cardiovascular death or spontaneous myocardial infarction (composite end point), ischemia-driven coronary revascularization, and spontaneous myocardial infarction were also significantly lower with colchicine than with placebo. The incidence of death from noncardiovascular causes was higher in the colchicine group than in the placebo group (incidence, 0.7 vs. 0.5 events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.99 to 2.31). CONCLUSIONS: In a randomized trial involving patients with chronic coronary disease, the risk of cardiovascular events was significantly lower among those who received 0.5 mg of colchicine once daily than among those who received placebo. (Funded by the National Health Medical Research Council of Australia and others; LoDoCo2 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12614000093684.).

Hospital-Acquired Infection, Length of Stay, and Readmission in Elective Surgery Patients Transfused 1 Unit of Red Blood Cells: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Most patients transfused red blood cells in elective surgery receive small volumes of blood, which is likely to be discretionary and avoidable. We investigated the outcomes of patients who received a single unit of packed red blood cells during their hospital admission for an elective surgical procedure when compared to those not transfused. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included elective surgical admissions to 4 hospitals in Western Australia over a 6-year period. Participants were included if they were at least 18 years of age and were admitted for elective surgery between July 2014 and June 2020. We compared outcomes of patients who had received 1 unit of red blood cells to patients who had not been transfused. To balance differences in patient characteristics, we weighted our multivariable regression models using the inverse probability of treatment. In addition to propensity score weighting, our multivariable regression models adjusted for hemoglobin level, surgical procedure, patient age, gender, comorbidities, and the transfusion of fresh-frozen plasma or platelets. Outcomes studied were hospital-acquired infection, hospital length of stay, and all-cause emergency readmissions within 28 days. RESULTS: Overall, 767 (3.2%) patients received a transfusion of 1 unit of red blood cells throughout their admission. In the propensity score weighted analysis, the transfusion of a single unit of red blood cells was associated with higher odds of hospital-acquired infection (odds ratio, 3.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.99-5.20; P < .001). Patients who received 1 unit of red blood cells throughout their admission were more likely to have a longer hospital stay (rate ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.51-1.63; P < .001) and had 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.69; P < .001) times higher odds of 28-day readmission. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that avoidance of even small volumes of packed red blood cells may prevent adverse clinical outcomes. This may encourage hospital administrators to implement strategies to avoid the transfusion of even small volumes of red blood cells by applying patient blood management practices.

The Pleural Effusion And Symptom Evaluation (PLEASE) study of breathlessness in patients with a symptomatic pleural effusion.

INTRODUCTION: Pathophysiology changes associated with pleural effusion, its drainage and factors governing symptom response are poorly understood. Our objective was to determine: 1) the effect of pleural effusion (and its drainage) on cardiorespiratory, functional and diaphragmatic parameters; and 2) the proportion as well as characteristics of patients with breathlessness relief post-drainage. METHODS: Prospectively enrolled patients with symptomatic pleural effusions were assessed at both pre-therapeutic drainage and at 24-36 h post-therapeutic drainage. RESULTS: 145 participants completed pre-drainage and post-drainage tests; 93% had effusions ≥25% of hemithorax. The median volume drained was 1.68 L. Breathlessness scores improved post-drainage (mean visual analogue scale (VAS) score by 28.0±24 mm; dyspnoea-12 (D12) score by 10.5±8.8; resting Borg score before 6-min walk test (6-MWT) by 0.6±1.7; all p<0.0001). The 6-min walk distance (6-MWD) increased by 29.7±73.5 m, p<0.0001. Improvements in vital signs and spirometry were modest (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) by 0.22 L, 95% CI 0.18-0.27; forced vital capacity (FVC) by 0.30 L, 95% CI 0.24-0.37). The ipsilateral hemi-diaphragm was flattened/everted in 50% of participants pre-drainage and 48% of participants exhibited paradoxical or no diaphragmatic movement. Post-drainage, hemi-diaphragm shape and movement were normal in 94% and 73% of participants, respectively. Drainage provided meaningful breathlessness relief (VAS score improved ≥14 mm) in 73% of participants irrespective of whether the lung expanded (mean difference 0.14, 95% CI 10.02-0.29; p=0.13). Multivariate analyses found that breathlessness relief was associated with significant breathlessness pre-drainage (odds ratio (OR) 5.83 per standard deviation (sd) decrease), baseline abnormal/paralyzed/paradoxical diaphragm movement (OR 4.37), benign aetiology (OR 3.39), higher pleural pH (OR per sd increase 1.92) and higher serum albumin level (OR per sd increase 1.73). CONCLUSIONS: Breathlessness and exercise tolerance improved in most patients with only a small mean improvement in spirometry and no change in oxygenation. Breathlessness improvement was similar in participants with and without trapped lung. Abnormal hemi-diaphragm shape and movement were independently associated with relief of breathlessness post-drainage.

U-shaped association of vigorous physical activity with risk of metabolic syndrome in men with low lean mass, and no interaction of physical activity and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with metabolic syndrome risk.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty over how lean mass, physical activity (PA) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OH-D) status interact on metabolic syndrome (MetS) risk in adults. AIMS: To test the hypothesis that these factors additively influence MetS risk. METHODS: Four thousand eight hundred and fifty-eight adults (54.6% female) mean ± SD age 58.0 ± 5.8 years, body mass index 28.1 ± 4.8 kg/m2 , resident in Busselton, Western Australia. PA assessed by questionnaire (all/total and vigorous), lean mass using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (% total body mass), serum 25-OH-D via immunoassay, analysed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In men, lower total PA was associated with MetS (no vs >24 h/week odds ratio (OR) = 3.1; ≤8 vs >24 h/week OR = 1.8, both P < 0.001), as was lower lean mass (low vs high OR = 20.4; medium vs high OR = 7.4, both P < 0.001). Men with low lean mass exhibited a U-shaped relationship of vigorous PA with MetS risk (covariate-adjusted: 0 vs 4-8 h/week OR = 2.1, P = 0.037; >12 vs 4-8 h/week OR = 4.3, P = 0.002; interaction P = 0.039). In women, low PA (0 vs >24 h/week OR = 2.1, P = 0.003) and lean mass (low vs high OR = 13.1; medium vs high OR = 7.2, both P < 0.001) were associated with MetS risk. Low 25-OH-D status was associated with MetS in men (low vs high OR = 4.1; medium vs high OR = 2.3, both P < 0.001) and women (OR = 3.5 and 2.1 respectively, both P < 0.001) with no PA interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women with high lean mass have low risk of MetS regardless of PA. Low lean mass identifies men who may benefit most from increasing PA, with an optimal level associated with lowest risk. 25-OH-D and PA do not interact on MetS risk.

The effect of low-dose colchicine in patients with stable coronary artery disease: The LoDoCo2 trial rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

Because patients with stable coronary artery disease are at continued risk of major atherosclerotic events despite effective secondary prevention strategies, there is a need to continue to develop additional safe, effective and well-tolerated therapies for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. RATIONALE AND DESIGN: The LoDoCo (Low Dose Colchicine) pilot trial showed that the anti-inflammatory drug colchicine 0.5 mg once daily appears safe and effective for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Colchicine's low cost and long-term safety suggest that if its efficacy can be confirmed in a rigorous trial, repurposing it for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease would have the potential to impact the global burden of cardiovascular disease. LoDoCo2 is an investigator-initiated, international, multicentre, double-blind, event driven trial in which 5522 patients with stable coronary artery disease tolerant to colchicine during a 30-day run-in phase have been randomized to colchicine 0.5 mg daily or matching placebo on a background of optimal medical therapy. The study will have 90% power to detect a 30% reduction in the composite primary endpoint: cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and ischemia-driven coronary revascularization. Adverse events potentially related to the use of colchicine will also be collected, including late gastrointestinal intolerance, neuropathy, myopathy, myositis, and neutropenia. CONCLUSION: The LoDoCo2 Trial will provide information on the efficacy and safety of low-dose colchicine for secondary prevention in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

Performance of manual hyperinflation: consistency and modification of the technique by intensive care unit nurses during physiotherapy.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To assess the consistency and safety of manual hyperinflation delivery by nurses of variable clinical experience using a resuscitator bag during physiotherapy treatment. BACKGROUND: Manual hyperinflation involves the delivery of larger than normal gas volumes to intubated patients and is routinely used by nurses in collaboration with physiotherapists for the management of retained sputum. The aim is to deliver slow deep breaths with an inspiratory hold without unsafe airway pressures, lung volumes or haemodynamic changes. In addition, nursing staff should be able to 'feel' differences in resistance and adjust their technique accordingly. DESIGN: Prospective observational study utilising the simulation of a mechanically ventilated patient. METHODS: Thirty-three nurses delivered manual hyperinflation to a SimMan3G mannequin who had three distinct lung scenarios applied (normal; asthma; Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome) in randomised order during simulated physiotherapy treatment. Respiratory rate, tidal volume (Vt ), mean inspiratory flow rate (Vt /Ti), and peak airway pressure data were generated. RESULTS: Over all scenarios, mean respiratory rate = 12·3 breaths/minute, mean Vt  = 638·6 mls, mean inflation time = 1·3 seconds and peak airway pressure exceeded 40 cm H2 O in 41% of breaths, although only in 10% of breaths during the 'normal' lung scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Experienced nurses were able to manually hyperinflate 'normal' patients in a simulated setting safely. Despite their knowledge of barotrauma, unsafe airway pressures were delivered in some scenarios. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Training with regard to safe airway pressures, breath hold and adequate volumes is recommended for all nurses undertaking the procedure. Nurses and physiotherapists must closely monitor the patient's condition during manual hyperinflation thereby recognising changes with regard to lung compliance and airway resistance, with nurses responding by altering their technique. The addition of a pressure manometer in the circuit may improve patient safety when performing manual hyperinflation.

Cost-effectiveness of low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary disease in the netherlands.

AIMS: Recent trials have shown that low-dose colchicine (0.5 mg once daily) reduces major cardiovascular events in patients with acute and chronic coronary syndromes. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of low-dose colchicine therapy in patients with chronic coronary disease when added to standard background therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: This Markov cohort cost-effectiveness model used estimates of therapy effectiveness, transition probabilities, costs and quality of life obtained from the Low-dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial, as well as meta-analyses and public sources. In this trial, Low-dose colchicine was added to standard of care and compared to placebo. The main outcomes were cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, stroke and coronary revascularisation, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), the cost per QALY gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio), and net monetary benefit. In the model, low-dose colchicine therapy yielded 0.04 additional QALYs compared with standard of care at an incremental cost of €455 from a societal perspective and €729 from a healthcare perspective, resulting in a cost per QALY gained of €12,176/QALY from a societal perspective and €19,499/QALY from a healthcare perspective. Net monetary benefit was €1,414 from a societal perspective and €1,140 from a healthcare perspective. Low-dose colchicine has a 96% and 94% chance of being cost effective, from respectively a societal and healthcare perspective when using a willingness to pay of €50,000/QALY. Net monetary benefit would decrease below zero when annual low-dose colchicine costs would exceed an annual cost of €221 per patient. CONCLUSION: Adding low-dose colchicine to standard of care in patients with chronic coronary disease is cost-effective according to commonly accepted thresholds in Europe and Australia and compares favourably in cost-effectiveness to other drugs used in chronic coronary disease.

The art of aging well: a study of the relationship between recreational arts engagement, general health and mental wellbeing in cohort of Australian older adults.

Introduction: Evidence of the benefits of arts engagement to community wellbeing has been mounting since the 1990s. However, large scale, quantitative, epidemiological studies of the "arts-healthy aging" relationship, or the types of arts older adults voluntarily choose to engage in as part of their everyday life, for enjoyment, entertainment or as a hobby (vs. therapy or interventions) are limited. The aims of this study were to describe older adult recreational arts engagement via the Busselton Healthy Ageing Study (BHAS) cohort, and to determine if there was an association between arts engagement, general health and mental wellbeing. Methods: Overall, 2,843 older adults (born 1946-1964) from the BHAS cohort (n = 5,107) who had completed a supplementary arts survey (n = 3,055, 60%) and had data on required variables were included in this study (93% of those eligible). The dependent variable was general health (SF12) and subjective mental wellbeing (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale, WEMWBS). The independent variable was hours engaged in recreational arts in the last 12 months. A descriptive analysis followed by a linear regression analysis was conducted. Results: The prevalence of recreational arts engagement in the last 12 months was 85% (mean = 132 h/year). Older adults engaged in the arts in a number of ways including attending events (79%), actively participating/making art (40%), as an arts society/club/organization member (20%), by learning about the arts (13%) or by volunteering/working in the arts (non-professional, 11%). When general health was assessed via the SF12, the average physical component score (PCS) was 50.1 (SD 8.9) and the average mental component score (MCS) was 53.6 (SD 8.3). When mental wellbeing was assessed, the average WEMWBS score was 54.9 (SD = 8.6). After adjustment for 12 demographic and lifestyle covariates, it was found that older adults who engaged in any recreational arts in the last 12 months had significantly higher WEMWBS scores and higher SF12 physical component scores than those who did not engage in the arts (0 h/year). Discussion: Evidence of an arts-health relationship was found in this study. The suitability of the arts as a population based, healthy aging strategy to influence the mental wellbeing and general health of older adults should be investigated further.

Large Burden of Stroke Incidence in People with Cardiac Disease: A Linked Data Cohort Study.

Purpose: People with cardiac disease have 2-4 times greater risk of stroke than the general population. We measured stroke incidence in people with coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) or valvular heart disease (VHD). Methods: We used a person-linked hospitalization/mortality dataset to identify all people hospitalized with CHD, AF or VHD (1985-2017), and stratified them as pre-existing (hospitalized 1985-2012 and alive at October 31, 2012) or new (first-ever cardiac hospitalization in the five-year study period, 2012-2017). We identified first-ever strokes occurring from 2012 to 2017 in patients aged 20-94 years and calculated age-specific and age-standardized rates (ASR) for each cardiac cohort. Results: Of the 175,560 people in the cohort, most had CHD (69.9%); 16.3% had multiple cardiac conditions. From 2012-17, 5871 first-ever strokes occurred. ASRs were greater in females than males in single and multiple condition cardiac groups, largely driven by rates in females aged ≥75 years, with stroke incidence in this age group being at least 20% greater in females than males in each cardiac subgroup. In females aged 20-54 years, stroke incidence was 4.9-fold greater in those with multiple versus single cardiac conditions. This differential declined with increasing age. Non-fatal stroke incidence was greater than fatal stroke in all age groups except in the 85-94 age group. Incidence rate ratios were up to 2-fold larger in new versus pre-existing cardiac disease. Conclusion: Stroke incidence in people with cardiac disease is substantial, with older females, and younger patients with multiple cardiac conditions, at elevated risk. These patients should be specifically targeted for evidence-based management to minimize the burden of stroke.

Serum testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin are inversely associated with leucocyte telomere length in men: a cross-sectional analysis of the UK Biobank study.

OBJECTIVE: Older men on an average have lower testosterone concentrations, compared with younger men, and more age-related comorbidities. Whether lower testosterone concentrations contribute to biological ageing remains unclear. Shorter telomeres are a marker for biological age. We tested the hypothesis that testosterone concentrations are associated with leucocyte telomere length (LTL), in middle- to older-aged men. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of the UK Biobank study, involving community-dwelling men aged 40-69 years. METHODS: Serum testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were assayed. Free testosterone was calculated (cFT). Leucocyte telomere length was measured using polymerase chain reaction. Multivariable models were used to assess associations of hormones with standardised LTL. RESULTS: In 167 706 men, median age 58 years, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and medical factors, total testosterone was inversely associated with standardised LTL, which was 0.09 longer (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-0.10, P < .001) in men with total testosterone at median of lowest quintile [Q1] vs highest [Q5]. This relationship was attenuated after additional adjustment for SHBG (0.03 longer, CI = 0.02-0.05, P = .003). The association between cFT and LTL was similar in direction but lower in magnitude. In multivariable analysis, SHBG was inversely associated with standardised LTL, which was 0.12 longer (CI = 0.10-0.13, P < .001) for SHBG at median Q1 vs Q5. Results were similar with testosterone included in the model (0.10 longer, CI = 0.08-0.12, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Total testosterone and SHBG were independently and inversely associated with LTL. Men with higher testosterone or SHBG had shorter telomeres, arguing against a role for testosterone to slow biological ageing in men.

Colchicine and diabetes in patients with chronic coronary artery disease: insights from the LoDoCo2 randomized controlled trial.

Introduction: Despite optimal treatment, patients with chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) and diabetes mellitus (DM) are at high risk of cardiovascular events, emphasizing the need for new treatment options. The Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial demonstrated that colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic CAD. This analysis determines the efficacy of colchicine in patients with chronic CAD and DM as well as the effect of colchicine on the development of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: The LoDoCo2 trial randomized 5,522 patients to placebo or colchicine 0.5 mg once daily, with a median follow-up of 28.6 months. The primary composite endpoint was cardiovascular death, spontaneous myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or ischemia-driven revascularization. The effect of its treatment in patients with and without DM was evaluated by including an interaction term in the model. Results: A total of 1,007 participants (18.2%) had T2DM at baseline. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [(95% confidence interval (CI)] for the primary endpoint in the T2DM group was 1.52 (1.15-2.01, p < 0.01) compared with the group without T2DM. The HR for the treatment effect on the primary endpoint was 0.87 (0.61-1.25) in participants with T2DM and 0.64 (0.51-0.80) in participants without diabetes (pinteraction = 0.14). The incidence of new-onset T2DM was 1.5% (34 out of 2,270) in the colchicine group and 2.2% (49 out of 2,245) in the placebo group (p = 0.10). Discussion: In conclusion, based on the current evidence, the beneficial effects of colchicine on cardiovascular endpoints are consistent regardless of DM status. The potential benefits of colchicine in preventing new-onset DM need further investigation. These findings are only hypothesis-generating and require larger prospective trials to confirm the results.

Drivers of mortality in patients with chronic coronary disease in the low-dose colchicine 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose colchicine significantly reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic coronary disease. An increase of non-cardiovascular death raised concerns about its safety. This study reports cause-specific mortality and baseline predictors of mortality in the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial. METHODS: Patients with chronic coronary disease were randomly allocated to colchicine 0.5 mg once daily or placebo on a background of optimal medical therapy. Cause-specific mortality data were analysed, stratified by treatment status. Multivariate analyses were performed to examine the predictors of mortality as well as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: After a median 28.6 months follow-up, 133 out of 5522 participants (2.4%) died. Forty-five deaths were cardiovascular (colchicine versus placebo: 20 [0.7%] versus 25 [0.9%], HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.44-1.44), while eighty-eight deaths were non-cardiovascular (53 [1.9%] versus 35 [1.3%]; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 0.99-2.31). Forty-eight deaths were due to cancer (26 [0.9%] versus 22 [0.8%]), thirteen end-stage pulmonary disease (9 [0.3%] versus 4 [0.1%]), eight infection (4 [0.1%] versus 4 [0.1%]), five dementia (4 [0.1%] versus 1 [0.0%]) and five related multiple organ failure (3 [0.1%] versus 2 [0.1%]). Multivariable analysis demonstrated age > 65 years was the only independent baseline characteristic associated with non-cardiovascular death (HR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.06-6.47). CONCLUSIONS: During the LoDoCo2 trial, assignment to colchicine was not associated with an adverse effect on any specific causes of death. Most deaths were related to non-cardiovascular causes, underscoring the importance of comorbidities as drivers of all-cause mortality in patients with chronic coronary disease.

Individual lifetime benefit from low-dose colchicine in patients with chronic coronary artery disease.

AIMS: Low-dose colchicine reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but absolute benefits may vary between individuals. This study aimed to assess the range of individual absolute benefits from low-dose colchicine according to patient risk profile. METHODS AND RESULTS: The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline-recommended SMART-REACH model was combined with the relative treatment effect of low-dose colchicine and applied to patients with CAD from the Low-Dose Colchicine 2 (LoDoCo2) trial and the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (UCC-SMART) study (n = 10 830). Individual treatment benefits were expressed as 10-year absolute risk reductions (ARRs) for myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death (MACE), and MACE-free life-years gained. Predictions were also performed for MACE plus coronary revascularization (MACE+), using a new lifetime model derived in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry. Colchicine was compared with other ESC guideline-recommended intensified (Step 2) prevention strategies, i.e. LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) reduction to 1.4 mmol/L and systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduction to 130 mmHg. The generalizability to other populations was assessed in patients with CAD from REACH North America and Western Europe (n = 25 812). The median 10-year ARR from low-dose colchicine was 4.6% [interquartile range (IQR) 3.6-6.0%] for MACE and 8.6% (IQR 7.6-9.8%) for MACE+. Lifetime benefit was 2.0 (IQR 1.6-2.5) MACE-free years, and 3.4 (IQR 2.6-4.2) MACE+-free life-years gained. For LDL-c and SBP reduction, respectively, the median 10-year ARR for MACE was 3.0% (IQR 1.5-5.1%) and 1.7% (IQR 0.0-5.7%), and the lifetime benefit was 1.2 (IQR 0.6-2.1) and 0.7 (IQR 0.0-2.3) MACE-free life-years gained. Similar results were obtained for MACE+ and in American and European patients from REACH. CONCLUSION: The absolute benefits of low-dose colchicine vary between individual patients with chronic CAD. They may be expected to be of at least similar magnitude to those of intensified LDL-c and SBP reduction in a majority of patients already on conventional lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering therapy.

The long-term benefits of treatment with low-dose colchicine were estimated for 36 642 individuals with coronary heart disease, and compared with those of lipid- and blood pressure­lowering therapy. On average, low-dose colchicine was estimated to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years from 17.8 to 13.2% (a reduction of 4.6% points) and to afford 2.0 additional years of life without cardiovascular disease.Low-dose colchicine was estimated to be the most effective treatment in 49%, intensive blood pressure­lowering therapy in 28%, and intensive lipid-lowering therapy in 23% of patients.

Human leukocyte antigen mismatches associated with increased risk of rejection, graft failure, and death independent of initial immunosuppression in renal transplant recipients.

Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) mismatches have been shown to adversely affect renal allograft outcomes and remain an important component of the allocation of deceased donor (DD) kidneys. The ongoing importance of HLA mismatches on transplant outcomes in the era of more potent immunosuppression remains debatable. Using Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, live and DD renal transplant recipients between 1998 and 2009 were examined. The association between the number of HLA mismatches and HLA-loci mismatches and outcomes were examined. Of the 8036 renal transplant recipients, 59% had between 2 and 4 HLA mismatches. Compared with 0 HLA mismatch, increasing HLA mismatches were associated with a higher risk of graft failure and patient death in the adjusted models. HLA mismatches were associated with an incremental risk of rejection although the relative risk was higher for live donor kidney transplants. Increasing HLA-AB and HLA-DR mismatches were associated with a greater risk of acute rejection, graft failure, death-censored graft failure, and/or death. There was no consistent association between initial immunosuppressive regimen and outcomes. Our results corroborate and extend the previous registry analyses demonstrating that HLA mismatches are associated with poorer transplant outcomes independent of immunosuppression and transplant era.

Association between initial and pretransplant dialysis modality and graft and patient outcomes in live- and deceased-donor renal transplant recipients.

The association between pretransplant dialysis modality and transplant outcomes remains inconsistent. The aim of this study is to address the association between alteration in dialysis modality and post-transplant outcomes. Using Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, primary live- and deceased-donor renal transplant recipients (RTR) between 1997 and 2009 were examined. Pre-emptive and multiple-organ transplants were excluded. The association between initial and pretransplant dialysis modality and transplant outcomes were examined. Of the 6701 RTR, 18.6% were initiated-maintained on peritoneal dialysis pretransplant (PD-PD), 9.2% were initiated on PD, but maintained on haemodialysis (HD) pretransplant (PD-HD), 63.3% were HD-HD and 8.9% were HD-PD. PD-HD [odds ratio(OR)1.44, 95% CI 1.21,1.72] and HD-HD (OR1.25, 95% CI 1.12,1.41) were associated with a significantly greater risk of slow graft function compared with the overall mean of the groups, whereas a change in initial dialysis modality from HD to pretransplant PD was associated with higher risk of overall graft failure [hazard ratio(HR)1.19, 95% CI 1.04,1.36) and recipient death (HR1.34, 95% CI 1.13,1.59). Our registry analysis suggest that dialysis modality pretransplant may affect transplant outcomes and future studies evaluating patient selection, choice of modality and/or potential interventions in the pre and post-transplant period may have a beneficial effect on post-transplant outcomes.

Developing PHarmacie-R: A bedside risk prediction tool with a medicines management focus to identify risk of hospital readmission.

BACKGROUND: The imperative to identify patients at risk of medication-related harm has never been greater. Hospital clinicians cannot easily predict risk of readmission or harm. Candidate variables associated with medication-related harm derived from the literature or significantly represented in a complex patient cohort have been previously described by PHarmacie-4. With a focus on polypharmacy and high-risk medicines in vulnerable patient cohorts, PHarmacie-4 was easy to use and highlighted risks. However it over-estimated risk, reducing its usefulness in stratifying risk of readmission. OBJECTIVE: Develop a risk prediction tool built into a smart phone app, enabling clinicians to identify and refer high-risk patients for an early post-discharge medicines review. Demonstrate usability, real world application and validity in an independent dataset. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study was conducted with 1201 randomly selected patients admitted to Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital between June 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. Patient characteristics and outcomes of interest were reported, including unplanned hospital utilisation at 30, 60 and 90 days post-discharge. Using multivariable logistic regression modelling, an algorithm was developed, built into a smart phone app and used and validated in an independent dataset. RESULTS: 738 patients (61%) were included in the derivation sample. The best predictive performance was achieved by PHarmacie-R (C-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.68-0.75) which included PHarmacie-4 risk variables, a non-linear effect of age, unplanned hospital utilisation in the preceding six months and gender. The independent validation dataset had a C-statistic of 0.64 (95% CI 0.56-0.72). CONCLUSION: PHarmacie-R is the first readmission risk prediction tool, built into a smart phone app, focussing on polypharmacy and high-risk medicines in vulnerable patients. It can assist clinical pharmacists to identify medical inpatients who may benefit from early post-discharge medication management services. External validation is needed to enable application in other clinical settings.