The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises.

TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Collective reflections on the first cycle of a collaborative learning platform to strengthen rural primary healthcare in Mpumalanga, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Frontline managers and health service providers are constrained in many contexts from responding to community priorities due to organizational cultures focused on centrally defined outputs and targets. This paper presents an evaluation of the Verbal Autopsy with Participatory Action Research (VAPAR) programme-a collaborative learning platform embedded in the local health system in Mpumalanga, South Africa-for strengthening of rural primary healthcare (PHC) systems. The programme aims to address exclusion from access to health services by generating and acting on research evidence of practical, local relevance. METHODS: Drawing on existing links in the provincial and national health systems and applying rapid, participatory evaluation techniques, we evaluated the first action-learning cycle of the VAPAR programme (2017-19). We collected data in three phases: (1) 10 individual interviews with programme stakeholders, including from government departments and parastatals, nongovernmental organizations and local communities; (2) an evaluative/exploratory workshop with provincial and district Department of Health managers; and (3) feedback and discussion of findings during an interactive workshop with national child health experts. RESULTS: Individual programme stakeholders described early outcomes relating to effective research and stakeholder engagement, and organization and delivery of services, with potential further contributions to the establishment of an evidence base for local policy and planning, and improved health outcomes. These outcomes were verified with provincial managers. Provincial and national stakeholders identified the potential for VAPAR to support engagement between communities and health authorities for collective planning and implementation of services. Provincial stakeholders proposed that this could be achieved through a two-way integration, with VAPAR stakeholders participating in routine health planning and review activities and frontline health officials being involved in the VAPAR process. Findings were collated into a revised theory of change. CONCLUSIONS: The VAPAR learning platform was regarded as a feasible, acceptable and relevant approach to facilitate cooperative learning and community participation in health systems. The evaluation provides support for a collaborative learning platform within routine health system processes and contributes to the limited evaluative evidence base on embedded health systems research.

An integrated approach to processing WHO-2016 verbal autopsy data: the InterVA-5 model.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy is an increasingly important methodology for assigning causes to otherwise uncertified deaths, which amount to around 50% of global mortality and cause much uncertainty for health planning. The World Health Organization sets international standards for the structure of verbal autopsy interviews and for cause categories that can reasonably be derived from verbal autopsy data. In addition, computer models are needed to efficiently process large quantities of verbal autopsy interviews to assign causes of death in a standardised manner. Here, we present the InterVA-5 model, developed to align with the WHO-2016 verbal autopsy standard. This is a harmonising model that can process input data from WHO-2016, as well as earlier WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats, to generate standardised cause-specific mortality profiles for diverse contexts. The software development involved building on the earlier InterVA-4 model, and the expanded knowledge base required for InterVA-5 was informed by analyses from a training dataset drawn from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration verbal autopsy reference dataset, as well as expert input. RESULTS: The new model was evaluated against a test dataset of 6130 cases from the Population Health Metrics Research Collaboration and 4009 cases from the Afghanistan National Mortality Survey dataset. Both of these sources contained around three quarters of the input items from the WHO-2016, WHO-2012 and Tariff-2 formats. Cause-specific mortality fractions across all applicable WHO cause categories were compared between causes assigned in participating tertiary hospitals and InterVA-5 in the test dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.92 for children and 0.86 for adults. The InterVA-5 model's capacity to handle different input formats was evaluated in the Afghanistan dataset, with concordance correlation coefficients of 0.97 and 0.96 between the WHO-2016 and the WHO-2012 format for children and adults respectively, and 0.92 and 0.87 between the WHO-2016 and the Tariff-2 format respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the inherent difficulties of determining "truth" in assigning cause of death, these findings suggest that the InterVA-5 model performs well and succeeds in harmonising across a range of input formats. As more primary data collected under WHO-2016 become available, it is likely that InterVA-5 will undergo minor re-versioning in the light of practical experience. The model is an important resource for measuring and evaluating cause-specific mortality globally.

Correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality in people aged 30-69 years and those aged 70-89 years.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the key metric for monitoring progress towards sustainable development goal target 3.4 that is measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality (deaths among people aged 30-69 years), is ageist. METHODS: To examine the relationship between premature noncommunicable disease mortality and noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, a database of mortality rates for cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes in people aged 30 to 69 years and 70 to 89 years was compiled using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The data covered 195 countries, six time-points and both sexes, giving 2340 instances. The World Health Organization's (WHO's) life-table method for the premature noncommunicable disease mortality metric was applied to the data. FINDINGS: There was a strong correlation between noncommunicable disease mortality patterns in the premature and older age groups, which suggests that measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality is informative about such mortality in later life. Neither time nor geographical location had a substantial effect on this correlation. However, there were female-to-male differences in age-specific probabilities of death due to noncommunicable disease, implying that noncommunicable disease mortality should be assessed using a sex-disaggregated approach. CONCLUSION: As the established WHO metric for premature noncommunicable disease mortality was predictive of noncommunicable disease mortality in older people, the metric should not be construed as ageist. Focusing resources on measuring premature noncommunicable disease mortality will be appropriate, particularly in settings without universal civil death registration. This approach should not prejudice the provision of health services throughout the life-course.

The effects of maternal and child HIV infection on health equity in Tigray Region, Ethiopia, and the implications for the health system: a case-control study.

Services that aim to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) can simultaneously reduce the overall impact of HIV infection in a population while also improving maternal and child health outcomes. By taking a health equity perspective, this retrospective case control study aimed to compare the health status of under-5 children born to HIV-positive and HIV-negative mothers in Tigray Region, Ethiopia. Two hundred and thirteen HIV-positive women (cases), and 214 HIV-negative women (controls) participated through interviews regarding their oldest children. Of the children born to HIV-positive mothers, 24% had not been tested, and 17% of those who had been tested were HIV-positive themselves. Only 29% of the HIV-positive children were linked to an ART programme. Unexpectedly, exposed HIV-negative children had fewer reports of perceived poor health as compared to unexposed children. Over 90% of all the children, regardless of maternal HIV status, were breastfed and up-to-date with the recommended immunizations. The high rate of HIV infection among the babies of HIV-positive women along with their low rates of antiretroviral treatment raises serious concerns about the quality of outreach to pregnant women in Tigray Region, and of the follow-up for children who have been exposed to HIV via their mothers.

What's coming for health science and policy in 2018? Global experts look ahead in their field.

In PLOS Medicine's first editorial of 2018, editorial board members and other leading researchers share their hopes, pleas, concerns, and expectations for this year in health research and policy.

The WHO 2016 verbal autopsy instrument: An international standard suitable for automated analysis by InterVA, InSilicoVA, and Tariff 2.0.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a practical method for determining probable causes of death at the population level in places where systems for medical certification of cause of death are weak. VA methods suitable for use in routine settings, such as civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems, have developed rapidly in the last decade. These developments have been part of a growing global momentum to strengthen CRVS systems in low-income countries. With this momentum have come pressure for continued research and development of VA methods and the need for a single standard VA instrument on which multiple automated diagnostic methods can be developed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In 2016, partners harmonized a WHO VA standard instrument that fully incorporates the indicators necessary to run currently available automated diagnostic algorithms. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality. This VA instrument offers the opportunity to harmonize the automated diagnostic algorithms in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Despite all improvements in design and technology, VA is only recommended where medical certification of cause of death is not possible. The method can nevertheless provide sufficient information to guide public health priorities in communities in which physician certification of deaths is largely unavailable. The WHO 2016 VA instrument, together with validated approaches to analyzing VA data, offers countries solutions to improving information about patterns of cause-specific mortality.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

Diversity and divergence: the dynamic burden of poor maternal health.

Maternal health is a big issue and is central to sustainable development. Each year, about 210 million women become pregnant and about 140 million newborn babies are delivered-the sheer scale of maternal health alone makes maternal well being and survival vital concerns. In this Series paper, we adopt primarily a numerical lens to illuminate patterns and trends in outcomes, but recognise that understanding of poor maternal health also warrants other perspectives, such as human rights. Our use of the best available evidence highlights the dynamic burden of maternal health problems. Increased diversity in the magnitude and causes of maternal mortality and morbidity between and within populations presents a major challenge to policies and programmes aiming to match varying needs with diverse types of care across different settings. This diversity, in turn, contributes to a widening gap or differences in levels of maternal mortality, seen most acutely in vulnerable populations, predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa. Strong political and technical commitment to improve equity-sensitive information systems is required to monitor the gap in maternal mortality, and robust research is needed to elucidate major interactions between the broad range of health problems. Diversity and divergence are defining characteristics of poor maternal health in the 21st century. Progress on this issue will be an ultimate judge of sustainable development.

Strengthening capacity to research the social determinants of health in low- and middle-income countries: lessons from the INTREC programme.

BACKGROUND: The INDEPTH Training & Research Centres of Excellence (INTREC) collaboration developed a training programme to strengthen social determinants of health (SDH) research in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It was piloted among health- and demographic researchers from 9 countries in Africa and Asia. The programme followed a blended learning approach and was split into three consecutive teaching blocks over a 12-month period: 1) an online course of 7 video lectures and assignments on the theory of SDH research; 2) a 2-week qualitative and quantitative methods workshop; and 3) a 1-week data analysis workshop. This report aims to summarise the student evaluations of the pilot and to suggest key lessons for future approaches to strengthen SDH research capacity in LMICs. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews and questionnaires with 24 students from 9 countries in Africa and Asia were used to evaluate each teaching block. Information was collected about the students' motivation and interest in studying SDH, any challenges they faced during the consecutive teaching blocks, and suggestions they had for future courses on SDH. RESULTS: Of the 24 students who began the programme, 13 (54%) completed all training activities. The students recognised the need for such a course and its potential to improve their skills as health researchers. The main challenges with the online course were time management, prior knowledge and skills required to participate in the course, and the need to get feedback from teaching staff throughout the learning process. All students found the face-to-face workshops to be of high quality and value for their work, because they offered an opportunity to clarify SDH concepts taught during the online course and to gain practical research skills. After the final teaching block, students felt they had improved their data analysis skills and were better able to develop research proposals, scientific manuscripts, and policy briefs. CONCLUSIONS: The INTREC programme has trained a promising cadre of health researchers who live and work in LMICs, which is an essential component of efforts to identify and reduce national and local level health inequities. Time management and technological issues were the greatest challenges, which can inform future attempts to strengthen research capacity on SDH.

Minimally Invasive Autopsy: A New Paradigm for Understanding Global Health?

Peter Byass reflects on the potential niche for minimally invasive autopsies in determining cause-of-death in low- and middle-income countries.

Effects of recall time on cause-of-death findings using verbal autopsy: empirical evidence from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a widely used technique for assigning causes to non-medically certified deaths using information gathered from a close caregiver. Both operational and cultural factors may cause delays in follow-up of deaths. The resulting time lag-from death to VA interview-can influence ways in which terminal events are remembered, and thus affect cause-of-death assignment. This study investigates the impact of recall period on causes of death determined by VA. METHODS: A total of 10,882 deaths from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) with complete VAs, including recall period, were incorporated in this study. To measure seasonal effect, cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated and compared by every cause for VAs undertaken within six months of death and those undertaken from six to 12 months of death. All causes were classified into eight broad categories and entered in a multiple logistic regression to explore outcome by recall period in relation to covariates. RESULTS: The majority of deaths (83 %) had VAs completed within 12 months. There was a tendency towards longer recall periods for deaths of those under one year or over 65 years of age. Only the acute respiratory, diarrhoeal and other unspecified non-communicable disease groups showed a CSMF ratio significantly different from unity at the 99 % confidence level between the two recall periods. Only neonatal deaths showed significantly different OR for recall exceeding 12 months (OR 1.69; p value = 0.004) and this increased when adjusting for background factors (OR 2.58; p value = 0.000). CONCLUSION: A recall period of up to one year between death and VA interview did not have any consequential effects on the cause-of-death patterns derived, with the exception of neonatal causes. This is an important operational consideration given the planned widespread use of the VA approach in civil registration, HDSS sites and occasional surveys.

A Successful Failure: Missing the MDG4 Target for Under-Five Mortality in South Africa.

Reflecting on under-five mortality, Peter Byass and colleagues consider how some countries may fail to meet millennium development goal targets despite making considerable advances.

Achieving a 25% reduction in premature non-communicable disease mortality: the Swedish population as a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The 2012 World Health Assembly set a target for Member States to reduce premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality by 25% over the period 2010 to 2025. This reflected concerns about increasing NCD mortality burdens among productive adults globally. This article first considers whether the WHO target of a 25% reduction in the unconditional probability of dying between ages of 30 and 70 from NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, or chronic respiratory diseases) has already taken place in Sweden during an equivalent 15-year period. Secondly, it assesses which population sub-groups have been more or less successful in contributing to overall changes in premature NCD mortality in Sweden. METHODS: A retrospective dynamic cohort database was constructed from Swedish population registers in the Linnaeus database, covering the entire population in the age range 30 to 69 years for the period 1991 to 2006, which was used directly to measure reductions in premature NCD mortality using a life table method as specified by the WHO. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to assess the contributions of individual background factors to decreases in premature NCD mortality. RESULTS: A total of 292,320 deaths occurred in the 30 to 69 year age group during the period 1991 to 2006, against 70,768,848 person-years registered. The crude all-cause mortality rate declined from 5.03 to 3.72 per 1,000 person-years, a 26% reduction. Within this, the unconditional probability of dying between the ages of 30 and 70 from NCD causes as defined by the WHO fell by 30.0%. Age was consistently the strongest determinant of NCD mortality. Background determinants of NCD mortality changed significantly over the four time periods 1991-1994, 1995-1998, 1999-2002, and 2003-2006. CONCLUSIONS: Sweden, now at a late stage of epidemiological transition, has already exceeded the 25% premature NCD mortality reduction target during an earlier 15-year period. This should be encouraging news for countries currently implementing premature NCD mortality reduction programmes. Our findings suggest, however, that it may be difficult for Sweden and other late-transition countries to reach the current 25 × 25 target, particularly where substantial premature mortality reductions have already been achieved.

Effect of HIV infection on pregnancy-related mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: secondary analyses of pooled community-based data from the network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA).

BACKGROUND: Model-based estimates of the global proportions of maternal deaths that are in HIV-infected women range from 7% to 21%, and the effects of HIV on the risk of maternal death is highly uncertain. We used longitudinal data from the Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA) network to estimate the excess mortality associated with HIV during pregnancy and the post-partum period in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: The ALPHA network pooled data gathered between June, 1989 and April, 2012 in six community-based studies in eastern and southern Africa with HIV serological surveillance and verbal-autopsy reporting. Deaths occurring during pregnancy and up to 42 days post partum were defined as pregnancy related. Pregnant or post-partum person-years were calculated for HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women, and HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected mortality rate ratios and HIV-attributable rates were compared between pregnant or post-partum women and women who were not pregnant or post partum. FINDINGS: 138,074 women aged 15-49 years contributed 636,213 person-years of observation. 49,568 women had 86,963 pregnancies. 6760 of these women died, 235 of them during pregnancy or the post-partum period. Mean prevalence of HIV infection across all person-years in the pooled data was 17.2% (95% CI 17.0-17.3), but 60 of 118 (50.8%) of the women of known HIV status who died during pregnancy or post partum were HIV infected. The mortality rate ratio of HIV-infected to HIV-uninfected women was 20.5 (18.9-22.4) in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 8.2 (5.7-11.8) in pregnant or post-partum women. Excess mortality attributable to HIV was 51.8 (47.8-53.8) per 1000 person-years in women who were not pregnant or post partum and 11.8 (8.4-15.3) per 1000 person-years in pregnant or post-partum women. INTERPRETATION: HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women had around eight times higher mortality than did their HIV-uninfected counterparts. On the basis of this estimate, we predict that roughly 24% of deaths in pregnant or post-partum women are attributable to HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that safe motherhood programmes should pay special attention to the needs of HIV-infected pregnant or post-partum women. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Health Metrics Network (WHO).