The worldwide networks of spread of recorded alien species.

Our ability to predict the spread of alien species is largely based on knowledge of previous invasion dynamics of individual species. However, in view of the large and growing number of alien species, understanding universal spread patterns common among taxa but specific to regions would considerably improve our ability to predict future dynamics of biological invasions. Here, using a comprehensive dataset of years of first record of alien species for four major biological groups (birds, nonmarine fishes, insects, and vascular plants), we applied a network approach to uncover frequent sequential patterns of first recordings of alien species across countries worldwide. Our analysis identified a few countries as consistent early recorders of alien species, with many subsequent records reported from countries in close geographic vicinity. These findings indicate that the spread network of alien species consists of two levels, a backbone of main dispersal hubs, driving intercontinental species movement, and subsequent intracontinental radiative spread in their vicinity. Geographical proximity and climatic similarity were significant predictors of same-species recording among countries. International trade was a significant predictor of the relative timing of species recordings, with countries having higher levels of trade flows consistently recording the species earlier. Targeting the countries that have emerged as hubs for the early spread of alien species may have substantial cascading effects on the global spread network of alien species, significantly reducing biological invasions. Furthermore, using these countries as early-warning system of upcoming invasions may also boost national prevention and invasion preparedness efforts.

Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non-native species in local assemblages.

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.

Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions.

The scarcity of long-term observational data has limited the use of statistical or machine-learning techniques for predicting intraannual ecological variation. However, time-stamped citizen-science observation records, supported by media data such as photographs, are increasingly available. In the present article, we present a novel framework based on the concept of relative phenological niche, using machine-learning algorithms to model observation records as a temporal sample of environmental conditions in which the represented ecological phenomenon occurs. Our approach accurately predicts the temporal dynamics of ecological events across large geographical scales and is robust to temporal bias in recording effort. These results highlight the vast potential of citizen-science observation data to predict ecological phenomena across space, including in near real time. The framework is also easily applicable for ecologists and practitioners already using machine-learning and statistics-based predictive approaches.

Assessing the Presence of Pithomyces chartarum in Pastureland Using IoT Sensors and Remote Sensing: The Case Study of Terceira Island (Azores, Portugal).

Spores from the fungus Pithomyces chartarum are commonly found on Azorean pastures. When consumed by cattle along with the grass, these spores cause health issues in the cattle, resulting in animal suffering and financial losses. For approximately two years, we monitored meteorological parameters using weather stations and collected and analyzed grass samples in a laboratory to control for the presence of spores. The data confirmed a connection between meteorology and sporulation, enabling the prediction of sporulation risk. To detect the presence of spores in pastures rather than predict it, we employed field spectrometry and Sentinel-2 reflectance data to measure the spectral signatures of grass while controlling for spores. Our findings indicate that meteorological variables from the past 90 days can be used to predict sporulation, which can enhance the accuracy of a web-based alert system used by farmers to manage the risk. We did not detect significant differences in spectral signatures between grass with and without spores. These studies contribute to a deeper understanding of P. chartarum sporulation and provide actionable information for managing cattle, ultimately improving animal welfare and reducing financial losses.

Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land-cover change.

Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is 'tropicalizing.' Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental invasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increasing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade.

International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios' plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Remoteness promotes biological invasions on islands worldwide.

One of the best-known general patterns in island biogeography is the species-isolation relationship (SIR), a decrease in the number of native species with increasing island isolation that is linked to lower rates of natural dispersal and colonization on remote oceanic islands. However, during recent centuries, the anthropogenic introduction of alien species has increasingly gained importance and altered the composition and richness of island species pools. We analyzed a large dataset for alien and native plants, ants, reptiles, mammals, and birds on 257 (sub) tropical islands, and showed that, except for birds, the number of naturalized alien species increases with isolation for all taxa, a pattern that is opposite to the negative SIR of native species. We argue that the reversal of the SIR for alien species is driven by an increase in island invasibility due to reduced diversity and increased ecological naiveté of native biota on the more remote islands.

Global rise in emerging alien species results from increased accessibility of new source pools.

Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050.

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.

Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Predicting the timing of ecological phenomena using dates of species occurrence records: a methodological approach and test case with mushrooms.

Spatiotemporal predictions of ecological phenomena are highly useful and significant in scientific and socio-economic applications. However, the inadequate availability of ecological time-series data often impedes the development of statistical predictions. On the other hand, considerable amounts of temporally discrete biological records (commonly known as 'species occurrence records') are being stored in public databases, and often include the location and date of the observation. In this paper, we describe an approach to develop spatiotemporal predictions based on the dates and locations found in species occurrence records. The approach is based on 'time-series classification', a field of machine learning, and consists of applying a machine-learning algorithm to classify between time series representing the environmental variation that precedes the occurrence records and time series representing the full range of environmental variation that is available in the location of the records. We exemplify the application of the approach for predicting the timing of emergence of fruiting bodies of two mushroom species (Boletus edulis and Macrolepiota procera) in Europe, from 2009 to 2015. Predictions made from this approach were superior to those provided by a 'null' model representing the average seasonality of the species. Given the increased availability and information contained in species occurrence records, particularly those supplemented with photographs, the range of environmental events that could be possible to predict using this approach is vast.

Predicting the risk of invasion by broadleaf watermilfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum) in mainland Portugal.

Broadleaf water milfoil (Myriophyllum heterophyllum) is an emerging invasive alien plant in Europe, and thus a priority for European Union (EU)-level surveillance, monitoring, and eradication. This species is native to North America and threatens aquatic ecosystems by creating dense stands that can fill an entire water body, leading to high economic costs and the loss of native biodiversity. Although its presence in Portugal is not reported, the species has already been established in several European countries, including neighboring Spain. In this study, we assessed the risk of invasion by this species in mainland Portugal by jointly considering environmentally suitable areas and the risk of human-mediated introduction. Environmental suitability was estimated using MaxEnt, which relates the known species distribution to climate, topography, and soil variables. The model achieved a mean area under the curve value of 0.96 ± 0.008 and identified the mean temperature of the warmest quarter as the most relevant variable for explaining the species distribution (67.2 %). Predictions from the model indicated that the peaks of suitability values were distributed mainly in temperate climate regions along central and northern coastal areas in Portugal. The risk of introduction was estimated by mapping and calculating the spatial density of the aquarium stores. Jointly considering environmental suitability and risk of introduction, we observed that hotspots at risk of invasion are concentrated on the Portuguese central and northern coasts and in the two main metropolitan areas, Lisbon and Porto. Several risk hotspots fall within protected areas and sites designated under the EU Habitats Directive, comprising water bodies of high significance for maintaining local vegetation and fauna. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures to reduce the risk of invasion by this species, namely, surveillance and monitoring efforts confirming its absence in the national territory and preventing its future arrival.

Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models.

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

Economic costs of invasive non-native species in urban areas: An underexplored financial drain.

Urbanization is an important driver of global change associated with a set of environmental modifications that affect the introduction and distribution of invasive non-native species (species with populations transported by humans beyond their natural biogeographic range that established and are spreading in their introduced range; hereafter, invasive species). These species are recognized as a cause of large ecological and economic losses. Nevertheless, the economic impacts of these species in urban areas are still poorly understood. Here we present a synthesis of the reported economic costs of invasive species in urban areas using the global InvaCost database, and demonstrate that costs are likely underestimated. Sixty-one invasive species have been reported to cause a cumulative cost of US$ 326.7 billion in urban areas between 1965 and 2021 globally (average annual cost of US$ 5.7 billion). Class Insecta was responsible for >99 % of reported costs (US$ 324.4 billion), followed by Aves (US$ 1.4 billion), and Magnoliopsida (US$ 494 million). The reported costs were highly uneven with the sum of the five costliest species representing 80 % of reported costs. Most reported costs were a result of damage (77.3 %), principally impacting public and social welfare (77.9 %) and authorities-stakeholders (20.7 %), and were almost entirely in terrestrial environments (99.9 %). We found costs reported for 24 countries. Yet, there are 73 additional countries with no reported costs, but with occurrences of invasive species that have reported costs in other countries. Although covering a relatively small area of the Earth's surface, urban areas represent about 15 % of the total reported costs attributed to invasive species. These results highlight the conservative nature of the estimates and impacts, revealing important biases present in the evaluation and publication of reported data on costs. We emphasize the urgent need for more focused assessments of invasive species' economic impacts in urban areas.

Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes.

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization.

Who is reporting non-native species and how? A cross-expert assessment of practices and drivers of non-native biodiversity reporting in species regional listing.

Each year, hundreds of scientific works with species' geographical data are published. However, these data can be challenging to identify, collect, and integrate into analytical workflows due to differences in reporting structures, storage formats, and the omission or inconsistency of relevant information and terminology. These difficulties tend to be aggravated for non-native species, given varying attitudes toward non-native species reporting and the existence of an additional layer of invasion-related terminology. Thus, our objective is to identify the current practices and drivers of the geographical reporting of non-native species in the scientific literature. We conducted an online survey targeting authors of species regional checklists-a widely published source of biogeographical data-where we asked about reporting habits and perceptions regarding non-native taxa. The responses and the relationships between response variables and predictors were analyzed using descriptive statistics and ordinal logistic regression models. With a response rate of 22.4% (n = 113), we found that nearly half of respondents (45.5%) do not always report non-native taxa, and of those who report, many (44.7%) do not always differentiate them from native taxa. Close to half of respondents (46.4%) also view the terminology of biological invasions as an obstacle to the reporting of non-native taxa. The ways in which checklist information is provided are varied, but mainly correspond to descriptive text and embedded tables with non-native species (when given) mentioned alongside native species. Only 13.4% of respondents mention to always provide the data in automation-friendly formats or its publication in biodiversity data repositories. Data on the distribution of non-native species are essential for monitoring global biodiversity change and preventing biological invasions. Despite its importance our results show an urgent need to improve the frequency, accessibility, and consistency of publication of these data.

The impact of land use on non-native species incidence and number in local assemblages worldwide.

While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and proportions of naturalised non-native species depend on type and intensity of land use. In plants, assemblages of primary vegetation are least invaded. In the other taxa, primary vegetation is among the least invaded land-use types, but one or several other types have equally low levels of occurrence, frequency and proportions of non-native species. High land use intensity is associated with higher non-native incidence and frequency in primary vegetation, while intensity effects are inconsistent for other land-use types. These findings highlight the potential dual role of unused primary vegetation in preserving native biodiversity and in conferring resistance against biological invasions.

A horizon scan exercise for aquatic invasive alien species in Iberian inland waters.

As the number of introduced species keeps increasing unabatedly, identifying and prioritising current and potential Invasive Alien Species (IAS) has become essential to manage them. Horizon Scanning (HS), defined as an exploration of potential threats, is considered a fundamental component of IAS management. By combining scientific knowledge on taxa with expert opinion, we identified the most relevant aquatic IAS in the Iberian Peninsula, i.e., those with the greatest geographic extent (or probability of introduction), severe ecological, economic and human health impacts, greatest difficulty and acceptability of management. We highlighted the 126 most relevant IAS already present in Iberian inland waters (i.e., Concern list) and 89 with a high probability of being introduced in the near future (i.e., Alert list), of which 24 and 10 IAS, respectively, were considered as a management priority after receiving the highest scores in the expert assessment (i.e., top-ranked IAS). In both lists, aquatic IAS belonging to the four thematic groups (plants, freshwater invertebrates, estuarine invertebrates, and vertebrates) were identified as having been introduced through various pathways from different regions of the world and classified according to their main functional feeding groups. Also, the latest update of the list of IAS of Union concern pursuant to Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 includes only 12 top-ranked IAS identified for the Iberian Peninsula, while the national lists incorporate the vast majority of them. This fact underlines the great importance of taxa prioritisation exercises at biogeographical scales as a step prior to risk analyses and their inclusion in national lists. This HS provides a robust assessment and a cost-effective strategy for decision-makers and stakeholders to prioritise the use of limited resources for IAS prevention and management. Although applied at a transnational level in a European biodiversity hotspot, this approach is designed for potential application at any geographical or administrative scale, including the continental one.

Introduction, spread, and impacts of invasive alien mammal species in Europe.

Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included on the Union List.We performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 publications dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS.We show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets and then escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average each year in the period 1981-2020, 1.2 species were recorded for the first time as aliens in European countries, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges by colonising neighbouring territories. France is the most invaded nation, followed by Germany, Italy, and the Russian Federation, and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, the American mink Neovison vison, and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81% of the 16 study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens.Containing secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health.We present a compendium on the ecology and impacts of invasive mammals of European Union concern. It can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders.

The current and future distribution of the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) on Madeira Island.

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the main vector for several diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. This species was first identified on Madeira Island in 2005, and between 2012 and 2013 was responsible for an outbreak of dengue that affected several thousand people. However, the potential distribution of the species on the island remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the suitability of current and future climatic conditions to the species on the island and complement this assessment with estimates of the suitability of land use and human settlement conditions. We used four modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, generalized additive models, generalized linear models and random forest) and data on the distribution of the species worldwide and across the island. For both climatic and non-climatic factors, suitability estimates predicted the current distribution of the species with good accuracy (mean area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve = 0.88 ±0.06, mean true skill statistic = 0.72 ±0.1). Minimum temperature of coldest month was the most influential climatic predictor, while human population density, residential housing density and public spaces were the most influential predictors describing land use and human settlement conditions. Suitable areas under current climates are predicted to occur mainly in the warmer and densely inhabited coastal areas of the southern part of the island, where the species is already established. By mid-century (2041-2060), the extent of climatically suitable areas is expected to increase, mainly towards higher altitudes and in the eastern part of the island. Our work shows that ongoing efforts to monitor and prevent the spread of Ae. aegypti on Madeira Island will have to increasingly consider the effects of climate change.