The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort.

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient's first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. RESULTS: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04-1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896-0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887-0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. CONCLUSIONS: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

Estimating the population level impact of a gonococcal vaccine candidate: Predictions from a simple mathematical model.

BACKGROUND: Neisseria gonorrhoeae cross-protection was suggested in a New Zealand meningitis B vaccine. We modeled the potential impact of similar vaccines on gonorrhea prevalence in heterosexuals in the United States. METHODS: Our mathematical model incorporated infection, behavior, and vaccination dynamics. Approximate Bayesian Computation calibrated our model to US prevalence. Primary analyses assumed New Zealand vaccine characteristics: 30% efficacy and 2-year duration of protection. We estimated impact under two vaccine coverages (20%, 50%). RESULTS: Reduction in gonorrhea prevalence ranged from 4.8 to 39.4%, depending on vaccine coverage. Vaccine impact was correlated with both size of the highly sexually active subpopulation and sexual mixing between high and low activity subpopulations. CONCLUSIONS: A meningitis vaccine providing low efficacy cross-protection against gonorrhea acquisition and short duration of protection could result in a large reduction in gonorrhea prevalence in the United States. Potential dual protective effects can be considered when making vaccine recommendations.