Reducing Multi-sensor Monthly Mean Aerosol Optical Depth Uncertainty Part II: Optimal Locations for Potential Ground Observation Deployments.

Surface remote sensing of aerosol properties provides "ground truth" for satellite and model validation, and is an important component of aerosol observation system. Due to the different characteristics of background aerosol variability, information obtained at different locations usually have different spatial representativeness, implying that the location should be carefully chosen so that its measurement could be extended to a greater area. In this study, we present an objective observation array design technique that automatically determines the optimal locations with the highest spatial representativeness based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) theory. The ensemble is constructed using aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from five satellite sensors. The optimal locations are solved sequentially by minimizing the total analysis error variance, which means that observations at these locations will reduce the background error variance to the largest extent. The location determined by the algorithm is further verified to have larger spatial representativeness than some other arbitrary location. In addition to the existing active AERONET sites, the 40 selected optimal locations are mostly concentrated on regions with both high AOD inhomogeneity and its spatial representativeness, namely the Sahel, South Africa, East Asia and North Pacific Islands. These places should be the focuses of establishing future AERONET sites in order to further reduce the uncertainty in the monthly mean AOD. Observations at these locations contribute to approximately 50% of the total background uncertainty reduction.

Reducing multisensor satellite monthly mean aerosol optical depth uncertainty: 1. Objective assessment of current AERONET locations.

Various space-based sensors have been designed and corresponding algorithms developed to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD), the very basic aerosol optical property, yet considerable disagreement still exists across these different satellite data sets. Surface-based observations aim to provide ground truth for validating satellite data; hence, their deployment locations should preferably contain as much spatial information as possible, i.e., high spatial representativeness. Using a novel Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)-based approach, we objectively evaluate the spatial representativeness of current Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Multisensor monthly mean AOD data sets from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, Ozone Monitoring Instrument, and Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar are combined into a 605-member ensemble, and AERONET data are considered as the observations to be assimilated into this ensemble using the EnKF. The assessment is made by comparing the analysis error variance (that has been constrained by ground-based measurements), with the background error variance (based on satellite data alone). Results show that the total uncertainty is reduced by ~27% on average and could reach above 50% over certain places. The uncertainty reduction pattern also has distinct seasonal patterns, corresponding to the spatial distribution of seasonally varying aerosol types, such as dust in the spring for Northern Hemisphere and biomass burning in the fall for Southern Hemisphere. Dust and biomass burning sites have the highest spatial representativeness, rural and oceanic sites can also represent moderate spatial information, whereas the representativeness of urban sites is relatively localized. A spatial score ranging from 1 to 3 is assigned to each AERONET site based on the uncertainty reduction, indicating its representativeness level.

Long-term satellite record reveals likely recent aerosol trend.

Analysis of the long-term Global Aerosol Climatology Project data set reveals a likely decrease of the global optical thickness of tropospheric aerosols by as much as 0.03 during the period from 1991 to 2005. This recent trend mirrors the concurrent global increase in solar radiation fluxes at Earth's surface and may have contributed to recent changes in surface climate.

Evidence for strengthening of the tropical general circulation in the 1990s.

Satellite observations suggest that the thermal radiation emitted by Earth to space increased by more than 5 watts per square meter, while reflected sunlight decreased by less than 2 watts per square meter, in the tropics over the period 1985-2000, with most of the increase occurring after 1990. By analyzing temporal changes in the frequency of occurrence of emitted thermal and reflected solar fluxes, the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are minimized, and an independent longer-time-scale variation of the radiation budget is identified. Similar analyses of upper tropospheric humidity, cloud amount, surface air temperature, and vertical velocity confirm that these flux changes are associated with a decadal-time-scale strengthening of the tropical Hadley and Walker circulations. Equatorial convective regions have intensified in upward motion and moistened, while both the equatorial and subtropical subsidence regions have become drier and less cloudy.