The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Conowingo Reservoir Sedimentation and Chesapeake Bay: State of the Science.

The Conowingo Reservoir is situated on the Susquehanna River, immediately upstream of Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States. Sedimentation in the reservoir provides an unintended benefit to the bay by preventing sediments, organic matter, and nutrients from entering the bay. The sediment storage capacity of the reservoir is nearly exhausted, however, and the resulting increase in loading of sediments and associated materials is a potential threat to Chesapeake Bay water quality. In response to this threat, the Lower Susquehanna River Watershed Assessment was conducted. The assessment indicates the reservoir is in a state of "dynamic equilibrium" in which sediment loads from the upstream watershed to the reservoir are balanced by sediments leaving the reservoir. Increased sediment loads are not a threat to bay water quality. Increased loads of associated organic matter and nutrients are, however, detrimental. Bottom-water dissolved oxygen declines of 0.1 to 0.2 g m are projected as a result of organic matter oxidation and enhanced eutrophication. The decline is small relative to normal variations but results in violations of standards enforced in a recently enacted total maximum daily load. Enhanced reductions in nutrient loads from the watershed are recommended to offset the decline in water quality caused by diminished retention in the reservoir. The assessment exposed several knowledge gaps that require additional investigation, including the potential for increased loading at flows below the threshold for reservoir scour and the nature and reactivity of organic matter and nutrients scoured from the reservoir bottom.

Impact of Reservoir Sediment Scour on Water Quality in a Downstream Estuary.

The Conowingo Reservoir is situated at the lower terminus of the Susquehanna ---River watershed, immediately above Chesapeake Bay. Since construction, the reservoir has been filling with sediment to the point where storage capacity is nearly exhausted. The potential for release of accumulated sediments, organic matter, and nutrients, especially through the action of storm scour, causes concern for water quality in Chesapeake Bay. We used hydrodynamic and eutrophication models to examine the effects of watershed loads and scour loads on bay water quality under total maximum daily load conditions. Results indicate that increased suspended solids loads are not a threat to bay water quality. For most conditions, solids scoured from the reservoir settle out before the season during which light attenuation is critical. The organic matter and nutrients associated with the solids are, however, detrimental. This material settles to the estuary bottom and is mineralized in bed sediments. Carbon diagenesis spurs oxygen consumption in bottom sediments and in the water column via release of chemical oxygen demand. The nutrients are recycled to the water column and stimulate algal production. As a result of a scour event, bottom-water dissolved oxygen declines up to 0.2 g m, although the decline is 0.1 g m or less when averaged over the summer season. Surface chlorophyll increases 0.1 to 0.3 mg m during the summer growing season.

Influence of Reservoir Infill on Coastal Deep Water Hypoxia.

Ecological restoration of the Chesapeake through the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load (TMDL) requires the reduction of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in the Chesapeake watershed because of the tidal water quality impairments and damage to living resources they cause. Within the Chesapeake watershed, the Conowingo Reservoir has been filling in with sediment for almost a century and is now in a state of near-full capacity called . The development of the Chesapeake TMDL in 2010 was with the assumption that the Conowingo Reservoir was still effectively trapping sediment and nutrients. This is now known not to be the case. In a TMDL, pollutant loads beyond the TMDL allocation, which are brought about by growth or other conditions, must be offset. Using the analysis tools of the Chesapeake TMDL for assessing the degree of water quality standard attainment, the estimated nutrient and sediment loads from a simulated dynamic equilibrium infill condition of the Conowingo Reservoir were determined. The influence on Chesapeake water quality by a large storm and scour event of January 1996 on the Susquehanna River was estimated, and the same storm and scour events were also evaluated in the more critical living resource period of June. An analysis was also made on the estimated influence of more moderate high flow events. The infill of the Conowingo reservoir had estimated impairments of water quality, primarily on deep-water and deep-channel dissolved oxygen, because of increased discharge and transport of organic and particulate inorganic nutrients from the Conowingo Reservoir.

A Multi-module Approach to Calculation of Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) Environmental Benefits.

Environmental benefits are one of the motivations for management restoration of depleted bivalve populations. We describe a series of linked modules for benefits calculation. The modules include: oyster (Crassostrea virginica) bioenergetics, materials transport via the tidal prism, and benefits quantification. Quantified benefits include carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus removal and shell production. The modules are demonstrated through application to the Great Wicomico River, a tributary of Chesapeake Bay, USA. Oysters on seven reefs (total area 2.8 × 10(5) m(2)) are calculated to remove 15.2, 6.2, and 0.2 tons per annum of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus, respectively, from the Great Wicomico. Oyster mortality contributes 108 tons per annum dry weight shell to the reefs.

A practical application of Droop nutrient kinetics (WR 1883).

Algal growth kinetics based on internal phosphorus concentration were incorporated into an existing eutrophication model. Application to a closed system resulted in damped oscillations in algal biomass and phosphate relative to a model with fixed composition. Peak biomass did not differ substantially, however, from that attained using a model with fixed, minimal phosphorus-to-carbon ratio. Sensitivity analyses were conducted following model application to the lower St. Johns River, Florida. Factor-of-two changes in key parameters had little influence on computed chlorophyll. Varying model parameters exerted a larger influence on dissolved phosphate concentration. We conclude Droop kinetics present a mechanism for regulating computed nutrient concentrations rather than computed chlorophyll concentrations.