Optimum Baseline Clinical Severity Scale Cut Points for Prognosticating Intracerebral Hemorrhage: INTERACT Studies.

BACKGROUND: The optimal cut point of baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and Glasgow Coma Scale scores for prognosticating acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is unknown. METHODS: Secondary analyses of participant data are from the INTERACT (Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trials) 1 and 2 studies. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to compare the predictive performance of baseline NIHSS and Glasgow Coma Scale scores, ICH score, and max-ICH score. Optimal cut points for predicting 90-day clinical outcomes (death or major disability [defined as modified Rankin Scale scores 3-6], major disability [defined as modified Rankin Scale scores 3-5], and death alone) were determined using the Youden index. Logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, hematoma volume, and other known risk factors for poor prognosis. We validated our findings in the INTERACT1 database. RESULTS: There were 2829 INTERACT2 patients (age, 63.5±12.9 years; male, 62.9%; ICH volume, 10.96 [5.77-19.49] mL) included in the main analyses. The baseline NIHSS score (area under the curve, 0.796) had better prognostic utility for predicting death or major disability than the Glasgow Coma Scale score (area under the curve, 0.650) and ICH score (area under the curve, 0.674) and was comparable to max-ICH score (area under the curve, 0.789). Similar findings were observed when assessing the outcome of major disability. A cut point of 10 on baseline NIHSS optimally (sensitivity, 77.5%; specificity, 69.2%) predicted death or major disability (adjusted odds ratio, 4.50 [95% CI, 3.60-5.63]). The baseline NIHSS cut points that optimally predicted major disability and death alone were 10 and 12, respectively. The predictive effect of NIHSS≥10 for poor functional outcomes was consistent in all subgroups including age and baseline hematoma volume. Results were consistent when analyzed in the independent INTERACT1 validation database. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with mild-to-moderate ICH, a baseline NIHSS score of ≥10 was optimal for predicting poor outcomes at 90 days. Prediction based on baseline NIHSS is better than baseline Glasgow Coma Scale score. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT00226096 and NCT00716079.

Influence of Time to Achieve Target Systolic Blood Pressure on Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: The Blood Pressure in Acute Stroke Collaboration.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether an earlier time to achieving and maintaining systolic blood pressure (SBP) at 120 to 140 mm Hg is associated with favorable outcomes in a cohort of patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS: We pooled individual patient data from randomized controlled trials registered in the Blood Pressure in Acute Stroke Collaboration. Time was defined as time form symptom onset plus the time (hour) to first achieve and subsequently maintain SBP at 120 to 140 mm Hg over 24 hours. The primary outcome was functional status measured by the modified Rankin Scale at 90 to 180 days. A generalized linear mixed models was used, with adjustment for covariables and trial as a random effect. RESULTS: A total of 5761 patients (mean age, 64.0 [SD, 13.0], 2120 [36.8%] females) were included in analyses. Earlier SBP control was associated with better functional outcomes (modified Rankin Scale score, 3-6; odds ratio, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97-0.99]) and a significant lower risk of hematoma expansion (0.98, 0.96-1.00). This association was stronger in patients with bigger baseline hematoma volume (>10 mL) compared with those with baseline hematoma volume ≤10 mL (0.006 for interaction). Earlier SBP control was not associated with cardiac or renal adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms a clear time relation between early versus later SBP control (120-140 mm Hg) and outcomes in the one-third of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who attained sustained SBP levels within this range. These data provide further support for the value of early recognition, rapid transport, and prompt initiation of treatment of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

Predictors of Early versus Delayed Neurological Deterioration after Thrombolysis for Ischemic Stroke.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to determine predictors of early (END) and delayed neurological deterioration (DND) and their association with the functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) who participated in the international Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study (ENCHANTED). METHODS: END and DND (without END) were defined as scores of a ≥2-point increase on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) or a ≥1-point decrease on the Glasgow coma scale or death, from baseline to 24 h and 24-72 h, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine independent predictors of END and DND and their association with 90-day outcomes (dichotomous scores on the modified Rankin scale [mRS] of 2-6 vs. 0-1 and 3-6 vs. 0-2 and death). RESULTS: Of 4,496 patients, 871 (19.4%) and 302 (8.4%) patients experienced END and DND, respectively. Higher baseline NIHSS score, older age, large-artery occlusion due to significant atheroma, cardioembolic stroke subtype, hemorrhagic infarction and parenchymatous hematoma within 24 h were all independent predictors for both END (all p ≤ 0.01) and DND (all p ≤ 0.024). Moreover, higher baseline systolic blood pressure (BP) (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.12), higher diastolic BP variability within 24 h (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.09), patients from Asia (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.03-1.52) were the only independent predictors for END. However, Asian ethnicity was negatively associated with DND (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47-0.86). Hemorrhagic infarction and parenchymatous hematoma within 24 h were the key predictors of END across all stroke subtypes. END and DND were all associated with a poor functional outcome at 90 days (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: We identified overlapping and unique demographic and clinical predictors of END and DND after thrombolysis for AIS. Both END and DND predict unfavorable outcomes at 90 days.

Intensive blood pressure lowering and renal function in ischemic stroke patients: secondary analysis of ENCHANTED trial.

BACKGROUND: Renal failure is a major safety concern of intensive systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering. We aimed to determine the effect of this treatment on early change in renal function in participants of the international Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study (ENCHANTED). METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of the ENCHANTED BP-arm in which thrombolyzed patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) were randomized to intensive (target 130-140 mm Hg within 1 h) or guideline-recommended (target <180 mm Hg) management within 6 h of symptom onset. Primary outcome is early change in renal function, defined by a difference in estimated glomerular filtration rate (∆eGFR = 24 h - baseline eGFR), analyzed using linear regression with adjustment for clinical variables. Key SBP parameters were attained (mean), variability (standard deviation [SD]) and magnitude of reduction within 24 h. RESULTS: Of 2151 participants (mean age 66.9 years; 38% female) included with available baseline eGFR, there were significant differences in attained 144.3±10.2 vs 149.8±12.0 [5.5 mm Hg]; P<0.0001), variation (15.1±5.4 vs 14.0±5.6 mm Hg; P<0.0001) and magnitude of reduction (44.6±16.2 vs 38.7±17.6 mm Hg; P<0.0001) in SBP within 24 hours. 1718 (79.9%) participants with complete follow-up eGFR were included in the primary analysis, and there was no significant difference in ∆eGFR (adjusted mean difference -1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] -3.14 to -0.94; P=0.29) between the intensive and guideline groups, respectively. The neutral effect on ∆eGFR was consistent in patients with different baseline eGFR stages and in sensitivity analysis after multiple imputation for missing follow-up eGFR. SBP variability was significantly associated with decreasing ∆eGFR (per 5 mm Hg increase by category: adjusted mean difference -1.35, 95%CI -2.43 to -0.28; P for trend=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Intensive SBP lowering with a target of 130-140 mm Hg had no impact on early renal function in thrombolyzed AIS patients. Wide SBP variability was associated with a larger decline in eGFR. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ENCHANTED is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01422616).

Major cardiovascular events and subsequent risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy: a CKD Prognosis Consortium study.

AIMS: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 25 903 761 individuals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g); 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9-3.3], 2.0 (1.9-2.1), 4.5 (4.2-4.9), 2.8 (2.7-3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43-50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. CONCLUSION: Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.

Blood pressure lowering and prevention of dementia: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

AIMS: Observational studies indicate U-shaped associations of blood pressure (BP) and incident dementia in older age, but randomized controlled trials of BP-lowering treatment show mixed results on this outcome in hypertensive patients. A pooled individual participant data analysis of five seminal randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trials was undertaken to better define the effects of BP-lowering treatment for the prevention of dementia. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multilevel logistic regression was used to evaluate the treatment effect on incident dementia. Effect modification was assessed for key population characteristics including age, baseline systolic BP, sex, and presence of prior stroke. Mediation analysis was used to quantify the contribution of trial medication and changes in systolic and diastolic BP on risk of dementia. The total sample included 28 008 individuals recruited from 20 countries. After a median follow-up of 4.3 years, there were 861 cases of incident dementia. Multilevel logistic regression reported an adjusted odds ratio 0.87 (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 0.99) in favour of antihypertensive treatment reducing risk of incident dementia with a mean BP lowering of 10/4 mmHg. Further multinomial regression taking account of death as a competing risk found similar results. There was no effect modification by age or sex. Mediation analysis confirmed the greater fall in BP in the actively treated group was associated with a greater reduction in dementia risk. CONCLUSION: The first single-stage individual patient data meta-analysis from randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trials provides evidence to support benefits of antihypertensive treatment in late-mid and later life to lower the risk of dementia. Questions remain as to the potential for additional BP lowering in those with already well-controlled hypertension and of antihypertensive treatment commenced earlier in the life-course to reduce the long-term risk of dementia. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: Class I evidence in favour of antihypertensive treatment reducing risk of incident dementia compared with placebo.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Associations of Early Systolic Blood Pressure Control and Outcome After Thrombolysis-Eligible Acute Ischemic Stroke: Results From the ENCHANTED Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In thrombolysis-eligible patients with acute ischemic stroke, there is uncertainty over the most appropriate systolic blood pressure (SBP) lowering profile that provides an optimal balance of potential benefit (functional recovery) and harm (intracranial hemorrhage). We aimed to determine relationships of SBP parameters and outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients. METHODS: Post hoc analyzes of the ENCHANTED (Enhanced Control of Hypertension and Thrombolysis Stroke Study), a partial-factorial trial of thrombolysis-eligible and treated acute ischemic stroke patients with high SBP (150-180 mm Hg) assigned to low-dose (0.6 mg/kg) or standard-dose (0.9 mg/kg) alteplase and intensive (target SBP, 130-140 mm Hg) or guideline-recommended (target SBP <180 mm Hg) treatment. All patients were followed up for functional status and serious adverse events to 90 days. Logistic regression models were used to analyze 3 SBP summary measures postrandomization: attained (mean), variability (SD) in 1-24 hours, and magnitude of reduction in 1 hour. The primary outcome was a favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale. The key safety outcome was any intracranial hemorrhage. RESULTS: Among 4511 included participants (mean age 67 years, 38% female, 65% Asian) lower attained SBP and smaller SBP variability were associated with favorable shift on the modified Rankin Scale (per 10 mm Hg increase: odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.71-0.82]; P<0.001 and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.76-0.98]; P=0.025) respectively, but not for magnitude of SBP reduction (0.98, [0.93-1.04]; P=0.564). Odds of intracranial hemorrhage was associated with higher attained SBP and greater SBP variability (1.18 [1.06-1.31]; P=0.002 and 1.34 [1.11-1.62]; P=0.002) but not with magnitude of SBP reduction (1.05 [0.98-1.14]; P=0.184). CONCLUSIONS: Attaining early and consistent low levels in SBP <140 mm Hg, even as low as 110 to 120 mm Hg, over 24 hours is associated with better outcomes in thrombolyzed acute ischemic stroke patients. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01422616.

Genetic loci and prioritization of genes for kidney function decline derived from a meta-analysis of 62 longitudinal genome-wide association studies.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) reflects kidney function. Progressive eGFR-decline can lead to kidney failure, necessitating dialysis or transplantation. Hundreds of loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for eGFR help explain population cross section variability. Since the contribution of these or other loci to eGFR-decline remains largely unknown, we derived GWAS for annual eGFR-decline and meta-analyzed 62 longitudinal studies with eGFR assessed twice over time in all 343,339 individuals and in high-risk groups. We also explored different covariate adjustment. Twelve genome-wide significant independent variants for eGFR-decline unadjusted or adjusted for eGFR-baseline (11 novel, one known for this phenotype), including nine variants robustly associated across models were identified. All loci for eGFR-decline were known for cross-sectional eGFR and thus distinguished a subgroup of eGFR loci. Seven of the nine variants showed variant-by-age interaction on eGFR cross section (further about 350,000 individuals), which linked genetic associations for eGFR-decline with age-dependency of genetic cross-section associations. Clinically important were two to four-fold greater genetic effects on eGFR-decline in high-risk subgroups. Five variants associated also with chronic kidney disease progression mapped to genes with functional in-silico evidence (UMOD, SPATA7, GALNTL5, TPPP). An unfavorable versus favorable nine-variant genetic profile showed increased risk odds ratios of 1.35 for kidney failure (95% confidence intervals 1.03-1.77) and 1.27 for acute kidney injury (95% confidence intervals 1.08-1.50) in over 2000 cases each, with matched controls). Thus, we provide a large data resource, genetic loci, and prioritized genes for kidney function decline, which help inform drug development pipelines revealing important insights into the age-dependency of kidney function genetics.

Blood pressure lowering and risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure lowering is an established strategy for preventing microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, but its role in the prevention of diabetes itself is unclear. We aimed to examine this question using individual participant data from major randomised controlled trials. METHODS: We performed a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis, in which data were pooled to investigate the effect of blood pressure lowering per se on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. An individual participant data network meta-analysis was used to investigate the differential effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Overall, data from 22 studies conducted between 1973 and 2008, were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We included all primary and secondary prevention trials that used a specific class or classes of antihypertensive drugs versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure lowering medications that had at least 1000 persons-years of follow-up in each randomly allocated arm. Participants with a known diagnosis of diabetes at baseline and trials conducted in patients with prevalent diabetes were excluded. For the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis we used stratified Cox proportional hazards model and for the individual participant data network meta-analysis we used logistic regression models to calculate the relative risk (RR) for drug class comparisons. FINDINGS: 145 939 participants (88 500 [60·6%] men and 57 429 [39·4%] women) from 19 randomised controlled trials were included in the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. 22 trials were included in the individual participant data network meta-analysis. After a median follow-up of 4·5 years (IQR 2·0), 9883 participants were diagnosed with new-onset type 2 diabetes. Systolic blood pressure reduction by 5 mm Hg reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes across all trials by 11% (hazard ratio 0·89 [95% CI 0·84-0·95]). Investigation of the effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs showed that in comparison to placebo, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (RR 0·84 [95% 0·76-0·93]) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (RR 0·84 [0·76-0·92]) reduced the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes; however, the use of ß blockers (RR 1·48 [1·27-1·72]) and thiazide diuretics (RR 1·20 [1·07-1·35]) increased this risk, and no material effect was found for calcium channel blockers (RR 1·02 [0·92-1·13]). INTERPRETATION: Blood pressure lowering is an effective strategy for the prevention of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Established pharmacological interventions, however, have qualitatively and quantitively different effects on diabetes, likely due to their differing off-target effects, with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers having the most favourable outcomes. This evidence supports the indication for selected classes of antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of diabetes, which could further refine the selection of drug choice according to an individual's clinical risk of diabetes. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and Oxford Martin School.

Initial treatment with a single pill containing quadruple combination of quarter doses of blood pressure medicines versus standard dose monotherapy in patients with hypertension (QUARTET): a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, active-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Treatment inertia is a recognised barrier to blood pressure control, and simpler, more effective treatment strategies are needed. We hypothesised that a hypertension management strategy starting with a single pill containing ultra-low-dose quadruple combination therapy would be more effective than a strategy of starting with monotherapy. METHODS: QUARTET was a multicentre, double-blind, parallel-group, randomised, phase 3 trial among Australian adults (≥18 years) with hypertension, who were untreated or receiving monotherapy. Participants were randomly assigned to either treatment, that started with the quadpill (containing irbesartan at 37·5 mg, amlodipine at 1·25 mg, indapamide at 0·625 mg, and bisoprolol at 2·5 mg) or an indistinguishable monotherapy control (irbesartan 150 mg). If blood pressure was not at target, additional medications could be added in both groups, starting with amlodipine at 5 mg. Participants were randomly assigned using an online central randomisation service. There was a 1:1 allocation, stratified by site. Allocation was masked to all participants and study team members (including investigators and those assessing outcomes) except the manufacturer of the investigational product and one unmasked statistician. The primary outcome was difference in unattended office systolic blood pressure at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes included blood pressure control (standard office blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg), safety, and tolerability. A subgroup continued randomly assigned allocation to 12 months to assess long-term effects. Analyses were per intention to treat. This trial was prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12616001144404, and is now complete. FINDINGS: From June 8, 2017, to Aug 31, 2020, 591 participants were recruited, with 743 assessed for eligibility, 152 ineligible or declined, 300 participants randomly assigned to intervention of initial quadpill treatment, and 291 to control of initial standard dose monotherapy treatment. The mean age of the 591 participants was 59 years (SD 12); 356 (60%) were male and 235 (40%) were female; 483 (82%) were White, 70 (12%) were Asian, and 38 (6%) reported as other ethnicity; and baseline mean unattended office blood pressure was 141 mm Hg (SD 13)/85 mm Hg (SD 10). By 12 weeks, 44 (15%) of 300 participants had additional blood pressure medications in the intervention group compared with 115 (40%) of 291 participants in the control group. Systolic blood pressure was lower by 6·9 mm Hg (95% CI 4·9-8·9; p<0·0001) and blood pressure control rates were higher in the intervention group (76%) versus control group (58%; relative risk [RR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·15-1·47; p<0·0001). There was no difference in adverse event-related treatment withdrawals at 12 weeks (intervention 4·0% vs control 2·4%; p=0·27). Among the 417 patients who continued, uptitration occurred more frequently among control participants than intervention participants (p<0·0001). However, at 52 weeks mean unattended systolic blood pressure remained lower by 7·7 mm Hg (95% CI 5·2-10·3) and blood pressure control rates higher in the intervention group (81%) versus control group (62%; RR 1·32, 95% CI 1·16-1·50). In all randomly assigned participants up to 12 weeks, there were seven (3%) serious adverse events in the intervention group and three (1%) serious adverse events in the control group. INTERPRETATION: A strategy with early treatment of a fixed-dose quadruple quarter-dose combination achieved and maintained greater blood pressure lowering compared with the common strategy of starting monotherapy. This trial demonstrated the efficacy, tolerability, and simplicity of a quadpill-based strategy. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia.

Early lowering of blood pressure after acute intracerebral haemorrhage: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

OBJECTIVE: To summarise evidence of the effects of blood pressure (BP)-lowering interventions after acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: A prespecified systematic review of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases from inception to 23 June 2020 to identify randomised controlled trials that compared active BP-lowering agents versus placebo or intensive versus guideline BP-lowering targets for adults <7 days after ICH onset. The primary outcome was function (distribution of scores on the modified Rankin scale) 90 days after randomisation. Radiological outcomes were absolute (>6 mL) and proportional (>33%) haematoma growth at 24 hours. Meta-analysis used a one-stage approach, adjusted using generalised linear mixed models with prespecified covariables and trial as a random effect. RESULTS: Of 7094 studies identified, 50 trials involving 11 494 patients were eligible and 16 (32.0%) shared patient-level data from 6221 (54.1%) patients (mean age 64.2 [SD 12.9], 2266 [36.4%] females) with a median time from symptom onset to randomisation of 3.8 hours (IQR 2.6-5.3). Active/intensive BP-lowering interventions had no effect on the primary outcome compared with placebo/guideline treatment (adjusted OR for unfavourable shift in modified Rankin scale scores: 0.97, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.06; p=0.50), but there was significant heterogeneity by strategy (pinteraction=0.031) and agent (pinteraction<0.0001). Active/intensive BP-lowering interventions clearly reduced absolute (>6 ml, adjusted OR 0.75, 95%CI 0.60 to 0.92; p=0.0077) and relative (≥33%, adjusted OR 0.82, 95%CI 0.68 to 0.99; p=0.034) haematoma growth. INTERPRETATION: Overall, a broad range of interventions to lower BP within 7 days of ICH onset had no overall benefit on functional recovery, despite reducing bleeding. The treatment effect appeared to vary according to strategy and agent. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019141136.

Antihypertensive treatment and risk of cancer: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have suggested a link between antihypertensive medication and cancer, but the evidence is so far inconclusive. Thus, we aimed to investigate this association in a large individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials. METHODS: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov from Jan 1, 1966, to Sept 1, 2019, to identify potentially eligible randomised controlled trials. Eligible studies were randomised controlled trials comparing one blood pressure lowering drug class with a placebo, inactive control, or other blood pressure lowering drug. We also required that trials had at least 1000 participant years of follow-up in each treatment group. Trials without cancer event information were excluded. We requested individual participant data from the authors of eligible trials. We pooled individual participant-level data from eligible trials and assessed the effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), ß blockers, calcium channel blockers, and thiazide diuretics on cancer risk in one-stage individual participant data and network meta-analyses. Cause-specific fixed-effects Cox regression models, stratified by trial, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). The primary outcome was any cancer event, defined as the first occurrence of any cancer diagnosed after randomisation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018099283). FINDINGS: 33 trials met the inclusion criteria, and included 260 447 participants with 15 012 cancer events. Median follow-up of included participants was 4·2 years (IQR 3·0-5·0). In the individual participant data meta-analysis comparing each drug class with all other comparators, no associations were identified between any antihypertensive drug class and risk of any cancer (HR 0·99 [95% CI 0·95-1·04] for ACEIs; 0·96 [0·92-1·01] for ARBs; 0·98 [0·89-1·07] for ß blockers; 1·01 [0·95-1·07] for thiazides), with the exception of calcium channel blockers (1·06 [1·01-1·11]). In the network meta-analysis comparing drug classes against placebo, we found no excess cancer risk with any drug class (HR 1·00 [95% CI 0·93-1·09] for ACEIs; 0·99 [0·92-1·06] for ARBs; 0·99 [0·89-1·11] for ß blockers; 1·04 [0·96-1·13] for calcium channel blockers; 1·00 [0·90-1·10] for thiazides). INTERPRETATION: We found no consistent evidence that antihypertensive medication use had any effect on cancer risk. Although such findings are reassuring, evidence for some comparisons was insufficient to entirely rule out excess risk, in particular for calcium channel blockers. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Oxford Martin School.

Impact of age at type 2 diabetes mellitus diagnosis on mortality and vascular complications: systematic review and meta-analyses.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Few studies examine the association between age at diagnosis and subsequent complications from type 2 diabetes. This paper aims to summarise the risk of mortality, macrovascular complications and microvascular complications associated with age at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Data were sourced from MEDLINE and All EBM (Evidence Based Medicine) databases from inception to July 2018. Observational studies, investigating the effect of age at diabetes diagnosis on macrovascular and microvascular diabetes complications in adults with type 2 diabetes were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Two investigators independently extracted data and evaluated all studies. If data were not reported in a comparable format, data were obtained from authors, presented as minimally adjusted ORs (and 95% CIs) per 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis, adjusted for current age for each outcome of interest. The study protocol was recorded with PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42016043593). RESULTS: Data from 26 observational studies comprising 1,325,493 individuals from 30 countries were included. Random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance weighting were used to obtain the pooled ORs. Age at diabetes diagnosis was inversely associated with risk of all-cause mortality and macrovascular and microvascular disease (all p < 0.001). Each 1 year increase in age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with a 4%, 3% and 5% decreased risk of all-cause mortality, macrovascular disease and microvascular disease, respectively, adjusted for current age. The effects were consistent for the individual components of the composite outcomes (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Younger, rather than older, age at diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher risk of mortality and vascular disease. Early and sustained interventions to delay type 2 diabetes onset and improve blood glucose levels and cardiovascular risk profiles of those already diagnosed are essential to reduce morbidity and mortality. Graphical abstract.

Marked improvements in glycaemic outcomes following insulin pump therapy initiation in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide observational study in Scotland.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to assess the use of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) in people with type 1 diabetes in Scotland and its association with glycaemic control, as measured by HbA1c levels, frequency of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and severe hospitalised hypoglycaemia (SHH), overall and stratified by baseline HbA1c. METHODS: We included 4684 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the national Scottish register, who commenced CSII between 2004 and 2019. We presented crude within-person differences from baseline HbA1c over time since initiation, crude DKA and SHH event-rates pre-/post-CSII exposure. We then used mixed models to assess the significance of CSII exposure, taking into account: (1) the diffuse nature of the intervention (i.e. structured education often precedes initiation); (2) repeated within-person measurements; and (3) background time-trends occurring pre-intervention. RESULTS: HbA1c decreased after CSII initiation, with a median within-person change of -5.5 mmol/mol (IQR -12.0, 0.0) (-0.5% [IQR -1.1, 0.0]). Within-person changes were most substantial in those with the highest baseline HbA1c, with median -21.0 mmol/mol (-30.0, -11.0) (-1.9% [-2.7, -1.0]) change in those with a baseline >84 mmol/mol (9.8%) within a year of exposure, that was sustained: -19.0 mmol/mol (-27.6, -6.5) (-1.7% [-2.5, -0.6]) at ≥5 years. Statistical significance and magnitude of change were supported by the mixed models results. The crude DKA event-rate was significantly lower in post-CSII person-time compared with pre-CSII person-time: 49.6 events (95% CI 46.3, 53.1) per 1000 person-years vs 67.9 (64.1, 71.9); rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.61 (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.47, 0.77; posterior probability of reduction pp = 1.00). The crude overall SHH event-rate in post-CSII vs pre-CSII person-time was also lower: 17.8 events (95% CI 15.8, 19.9) per 1000 person-years post-exposure vs 25.8 (23.5, 28.3) pre-exposure; rate ratio from Bayesian mixed models adjusting for pre-exposure trend: 0.67 (95% CrI 0.45, 1.01; pp = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII therapy was associated with marked falls in HbA1c especially in those with high baseline HbA1c. CSII was independently associated with reduced DKA and SHH rates. CSII appears to be an effective option for intensive insulin therapy in people with diabetes for improving suboptimal glycaemic control.

Polygenic risk scores predict diabetes complications and their response to intensive blood pressure and glucose control.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes increases the risk of cardiovascular and renal complications, but early risk prediction could lead to timely intervention and better outcomes. Genetic information can be used to enable early detection of risk. METHODS: We developed a multi-polygenic risk score (multiPRS) that combines ten weighted PRSs (10 wPRS) composed of 598 SNPs associated with main risk factors and outcomes of type 2 diabetes, derived from summary statistics data of genome-wide association studies. The 10 wPRS, first principal component of ethnicity, sex, age at onset and diabetes duration were included into one logistic regression model to predict micro- and macrovascular outcomes in 4098 participants in the ADVANCE study and 17,604 individuals with type 2 diabetes in the UK Biobank study. RESULTS: The model showed a similar predictive performance for cardiovascular and renal complications in different cohorts. It identified the top 30% of ADVANCE participants with a mean of 3.1-fold increased risk of major micro- and macrovascular events (p = 6.3 × 10-21 and p = 9.6 × 10-31, respectively) and a 4.4-fold (p = 6.8 × 10-33) higher risk of cardiovascular death. While in ADVANCE overall, combined intensive blood pressure and glucose control decreased cardiovascular death by 24%, the model identified a high-risk group in whom it decreased the mortality rate by 47%, and a low-risk group in whom it had no discernible effect. High-risk individuals had the greatest absolute risk reduction with a number needed to treat of 12 to prevent one cardiovascular death over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This novel multiPRS model stratified individuals with type 2 diabetes according to risk of complications and helped to target earlier those who would receive greater benefit from intensive therapy.

Associations of an Abnormal Physiological Score With Outcomes in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: INTERACT2 Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We determined associations of physiological abnormalities (systolic blood pressure, glucose, and body temperature) and warfarin use with outcomes in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS: Post hoc analyses of INTERACT2 (Intensive Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial) comparing systolic blood pressure control (<140 versus <180 mm Hg) in 2839 hypertensive patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (onset <6 hours). Multivariable logistic regression defined associations of baseline scores assigned as 0 to 6 per 10 mm Hg systolic blood pressure increase (range, 150-220 mm Hg) and 0 or 1 for serum glucose (≤6.5 versus >6.5 mmol/L), body temperature (≤37.5 °C versus >37.5 °C), and warfarin use (no versus yes) and death or major disability (modified Rankin Scale scores 3-6 at 90 days). RESULTS: Baseline score distribution was 0 (7.7%), 1 (15.6%), 2 (19.0%), 3 (19.1%), 4 (15.2%), 5 (11.6%), 6 (8.9%), and 7 (2.9%). After adjustment for baseline neurological severity and potential confounders, significant linear associations were evident for increasing (per point) score and death or major disability (odds ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.07-1.17]), death (odds ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.07-1.23]), and major disability (odds ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.05-1.15]). CONCLUSIONS: Combination of abnormal physiological parameters and warfarin use is associated with poor outcomes in intracerebral hemorrhage. Effects of their early control is under investigation in INTERACT3 (Intensive Care Bundle With Blood Pressure Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial). Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00716079.

Blood pressure-lowering treatment for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised evidence on the efficacy of blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment to reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the effects of BP-lowering drugs in patients with and without AF at baseline. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study was based on the resource provided by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC), in which individual participant data (IPD) were extracted from trials with over 1,000 patient-years of follow-up in each arm, and that had randomly assigned patients to different classes of BP-lowering drugs, BP-lowering drugs versus placebo, or more versus less intensive BP-lowering regimens. For this study, only trials that had collected information on AF status at baseline were included. The effects of BP-lowering treatment on a composite endpoint of major cardiovascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease or heart failure) according to AF status at baseline were estimated using fixed-effect one-stage IPD meta-analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models stratified by trial. Furthermore, to assess whether the associations between the intensity of BP reduction and cardiovascular outcomes are similar in those with and without AF at baseline, we used a meta-regression. From the full BPLTTC database, 28 trials (145,653 participants) were excluded because AF status at baseline was uncertain or unavailable. A total of 22 trials were included with 188,570 patients, of whom 13,266 (7%) had AF at baseline. Risk of bias assessment showed that 20 trials were at low risk of bias and 2 trials at moderate risk. Meta-regression showed that relative risk reductions were proportional to trial-level intensity of BP lowering in patients with and without AF at baseline. Over 4.5 years of median follow-up, a 5-mm Hg systolic BP (SBP) reduction lowered the risk of major cardiovascular events both in patients with AF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 to 1.00) and in patients without AF at baseline (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.93), with no difference between subgroups. There was no evidence for heterogeneity of treatment effects by baseline SBP or drug class in patients with AF at baseline. The findings of this study need to be interpreted in light of its potential limitations, such as the limited number of trials, limitation in ascertaining AF cases due to the nature of the arrhythmia and measuring BP in patients with AF. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis, we found that BP-lowering treatment reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events similarly in individuals with and without AF. Pharmacological BP lowering for prevention of cardiovascular events should be recommended in patients with AF.

Meta-analysis uncovers genome-wide significant variants for rapid kidney function decline.

Rapid decline of glomerular filtration rate estimated from creatinine (eGFRcrea) is associated with severe clinical endpoints. In contrast to cross-sectionally assessed eGFRcrea, the genetic basis for rapid eGFRcrea decline is largely unknown. To help define this, we meta-analyzed 42 genome-wide association studies from the Chronic Kidney Diseases Genetics Consortium and United Kingdom Biobank to identify genetic loci for rapid eGFRcrea decline. Two definitions of eGFRcrea decline were used: 3 mL/min/1.73m2/year or more ("Rapid3"; encompassing 34,874 cases, 107,090 controls) and eGFRcrea decline 25% or more and eGFRcrea under 60 mL/min/1.73m2 at follow-up among those with eGFRcrea 60 mL/min/1.73m2 or more at baseline ("CKDi25"; encompassing 19,901 cases, 175,244 controls). Seven independent variants were identified across six loci for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25: consisting of five variants at four loci with genome-wide significance (near UMOD-PDILT (2), PRKAG2, WDR72, OR2S2) and two variants among 265 known eGFRcrea variants (near GATM, LARP4B). All these loci were novel for Rapid3 and/or CKDi25 and our bioinformatic follow-up prioritized variants and genes underneath these loci. The OR2S2 locus is novel for any eGFRcrea trait including interesting candidates. For the five genome-wide significant lead variants, we found supporting effects for annual change in blood urea nitrogen or cystatin-based eGFR, but not for GATM or LARP4B. Individuals at high compared to those at low genetic risk (8-14 vs. 0-5 adverse alleles) had a 1.20-fold increased risk of acute kidney injury (95% confidence interval 1.08-1.33). Thus, our identified loci for rapid kidney function decline may help prioritize therapeutic targets and identify mechanisms and individuals at risk for sustained deterioration of kidney function.

Ultra-low-dose quadruple combination blood pressure-lowering therapy in patients with hypertension: The QUARTET randomized controlled trial protocol.

High blood pressure is the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality globally. Many patients remain on single-drug treatment with poor control, although guidelines recognize that most require combination therapy for blood pressure control. Our hypothesis is that a single-pill combination of 4 blood pressure-lowering agents each at a quarter dose may provide a simple, safe, and effective blood pressure-lowering solution which may also improve long-term adherence. The Quadruple UltrA-low-dose tReaTment for hypErTension (QUARTET) double-blind, active-controlled, randomized clinical trial will examine whether ultra-low-dose quadruple combination therapy is more effective than guideline-recommended standard care in lowering blood pressure. QUARTET will enroll 650 participants with high blood pressure either on no treatment or on monotherapy. Participants will be randomized 1:1 and allocated to intervention therapy of a single pill (quadpill) containing irbesartan 37.5 mg, amlodipine 1.25 mg, indapamide 0.625 mg, and bisoprolol 2.5 mg or to control therapy of a single identical-appearing pill containing irbesartan 150 mg. In both arms, step-up therapy of open-label amlodipine 5 mg will be provided if blood pressure is >140/90 at 6 weeks. The primary outcome is the difference between groups in the change from baseline in mean unattended automated office systolic blood pressure at 12-week follow-up. The primary outcome and some secondary outcomes will be assessed at 12 weeks; there is an optional 12-month extension phase to assess longer-term efficacy and tolerability. Our secondary aims are to assess if this approach is safe, has fewer adverse effects, and has better tolerability compared to standard care control. QUARTET will therefore provide evidence for the effectiveness and safety of a new paradigm in the management of high blood pressure.