Bayesian response adaptive randomization design with a composite endpoint of mortality and morbidity.

Allocating patients to treatment arms during a trial based on the observed responses accumulated up to the decision point, and sequential adaptation of this allocation, could minimize the expected number of failures or maximize total benefits to patients. In this study, we developed a Bayesian response-adaptive randomization (RAR) design targeting the endpoint of organ support-free days (OSFD) for patients admitted to the intensive care units. The OSFD is a mixture of mortality and morbidity assessed by the number of days of free of organ support within a predetermined post-randomization time-window. In the past, researchers treated OSFD as an ordinal outcome variable where the lowest category is death. We propose a novel RAR design for a composite endpoint of mortality and morbidity, for example, OSFD, by using a Bayesian mixture model with a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the posterior probability distribution of OSFD and determine treatment allocation ratios at each interim. Simulations were conducted to compare the performance of our proposed design under various randomization rules and different alpha spending functions. The results show that our RAR design using Bayesian inference allocated more patients to the better performing arm(s) compared to other existing adaptive rules while assuring adequate power and type I error rate control across a range of plausible clinical scenarios.

Ethnoracial Identity and Cognitive Impairment: A Community Study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying potentially modifiable risk factors associated with MCI in different ethnoracial groups could reduce MCI burden and health inequity in the population. METHODS: Among 2845 adults aged 65+ years, we investigated potential risk exposures including education, physical and mental health, lifestyle, and sensory function, and their cross-sectional associations with MCI. We compared proportions of exposures between Black and White participants and explored relationships among race, MCI, and exposures. Logistic regression modeled MCI as a function of each exposure in the overall sample adjusting for age, sex, educational level, and race, and investigating race*exposure interactions. RESULTS: Compared with White participants, Black participants had greater odds of MCI (OR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.13 to 2.06) and were more likely to report depressive symptoms, diabetes, and stroke, to have high blood pressure and BMI, and to be APOE - 4 carriers. Exposures associated with higher odds of MCI were diabetes, stroke, lifetime smoking, sleep disturbances, social isolation, loneliness, depression and anxiety symptoms, and vision and hearing loss. There were no significant interactions between race and any exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Black participants had 53% higher odds of MCI adjusting for age, sex, and education. The same exposures were associated with MCI in Black and White participants.

Association of plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease and related disorders with cognition and cognitive decline: The MYHAT population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Plasma biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias predict global cognitive performance and decline over time; it remains unclear how they associate with changes in different dementia syndromes affecting distinct cognitive domains. METHODS: In a prospective study with repeated assessments of a randomly selected population-based cohort (n = 787, median age 73), we evaluated performance and decline in different cognitive domains over up to 8 years in relation to plasma concentrations of amyloid beta 42/40 (Aß42/40) ratio, phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau181), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, memory showed the strongest associations with p-tau181, and attention, executive, and visuospatial functions with NfL. Longitudinally, memory decline was distinguishable with all biomarker profiles dichotomized according to data-driven cutoffs, most efficiently with Aß42/40. GFAP and Aß42/40 were the best discriminators of decline patterns in language and visuospatial functions, respectively. DISCUSSION: These relatively non-invasive tests may be beneficial for clinical screening after replication in other populations and validation through neuroimaging or cerebrospinal fluid analysis. HIGHLIGHTS: We performed a prospective study with up to 8 years of repeated domain-specific cognitive assessments and baseline plasma Alzheimer's disease and related dementias biomarker measurements in a randomly selected population-based cohort. We considered distinct growth curves of trajectories of different cognitive domains and survival bias induced by missing data by adding quadratic time and applying joint modeling technique. Cross-sectionally, memory showed the strongest associations with plasma phosphorylated tau181, while attention, executive, and visuospatial functions were most strongly associated with neurofilament light chain. Longitudinally, memory and visuospatial declines were most efficiently distinguished by dichotomized amyloid beta 42/40 profile among all plasma biomarkers, while language was by dichotomized glial fibrillary acidic protein. These relatively non-invasive tests may be beneficial for clinical screening; however, they will need replication in other populations and validation through neuroimaging and/or cerebrospinal fluid assessments.

Using a theory-based, customized video game as an educational tool to improve physicians' trauma triage decisions: study protocol for a randomized cluster trial.

BACKGROUND: Transfer of severely injured patients to trauma centers, either directly from the field or after evaluation at non-trauma centers, reduces preventable morbidity and mortality. Failure to transfer these patients appropriately (i.e., under-triage) remains common, and occurs in part because physicians at non-trauma centers make diagnostic errors when evaluating the severity of patients' injuries. We developed Night Shift, a theory-based adventure video game, to recalibrate physician heuristics (intuitive judgments) in trauma triage and established its efficacy in the laboratory. We plan a type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial to determine whether the game changes physician triage decisions in real-life and hypothesize that it will reduce the proportion of patients under-triaged. METHODS: We will recruit 800 physicians who work in the emergency departments (EDs) of non-trauma centers in the US and will randomize them to the game (intervention) or to usual education and training (control). We will ask those in the intervention group to play Night Shift for 2 h within 2 weeks of enrollment and again for 20 min at quarterly intervals. Those in the control group will receive only usual education (i.e., nothing supplemental). We will then assess physicians' triage practices for older, severely injured adults in the 1-year following enrollment, using Medicare claims, and will compare under-triage (primary outcome), 30-day mortality and re-admissions, functional independence, and over-triage between the two groups. We will evaluate contextual factors influencing reach, adoption, implementation, and maintenance with interviews of a subset of trial participants (n = 20) and of other key decision makers (e.g., patients, first responders, administrators [n = 100]). DISCUSSION: The results of the trial will inform future efforts to improve the implementation of clinical practice guidelines in trauma triage and will provide deeper understanding of effective strategies to reduce diagnostic errors during time-sensitive decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT06063434 . Registered 26 September 2023.

Impact of a family support intervention on hospitalization costs and hospital readmissions among ICU patients at high risk of death or severe functional impairment.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced critical illness often receive more intensive treatment than they would choose for themselves, which contributes to high health care costs near the end of life. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a family support intervention delivered by the interprofessional ICU team decreases hospitalization costs and hospital readmissions among critically ill patients at high risk of death or severe functional impairment. RESULTS: We examined index hospitalization costs as well as post-discharge utilization of acute care hospitals, rehabilitation and skilled nursing facilities, and hospice services for the PARTNER trial, a multicenter, stepped-wedge, cluster randomized trial of an interprofessional ICU family support intervention. We determined patients' total controllable and direct variable costs using a computerized accounting system. We determined post-discharge resource utilization (as defined above) by structured telephone interview at 6-month follow-up. We used multiple variable regression modelling to compare outcomes between groups. Compared to usual care, the PARTNER intervention resulted in significantly lower total controllable costs (geometric mean: $26,529 vs $32,105; log-linear coefficient: - 0.30; 95% CI - 0.49, - 0.11) and direct variable costs ($3912 vs $6034; - 0.33; 95% CI - 0.56, - 0.10). A larger cost reduction occurred for decedents ($20,304 vs. $26,610; - 0.66; 95% CI - 1.01, - 0.31) compared to survivors ($31,353 vs. $35,015; - 0.15; 95% CI - 0.35,0.05). A lower proportion in the intervention arm were re-admitted to an acute care hospital (34.9% vs 45.1%; 0.66; 95% CI 0.56, 0.77) or skilled nursing facility (25.3% vs 31.6%; 0.63; 95% CI 0.47, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: A family support intervention delivered by the interprofessional ICU team significantly decreased index hospitalization costs and readmission rates over 6-month follow-up. Trial registration Trial registration number: NCT01844492.

Metformin for sepsis-associated AKI: a protocol for the Randomized Clinical Trial of the Safety and FeasibiLity of Metformin as a Treatment for sepsis-associated AKI (LiMiT AKI).

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of sepsis associated with increased risk of death. Preclinical data and observational human studies suggest that activation of AMP-activated protein kinase, an ubiquitous master regulator of energy that can limit mitochondrial injury, with metformin may protect against sepsis-associated AKI (SA-AKI) and mortality. The Randomized Clinical Trial of the Safety and FeasibiLity of Metformin as a Treatment for sepsis-associated AKI (LiMiT AKI) aims to evaluate the safety and feasibility of enteral metformin in patients with sepsis at risk of developing SA-AKI. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial in a single-centre, quaternary teaching hospital in the USA. We will enrol adult patients (18 years of age or older) within 48 hours of meeting Sepsis-3 criteria, admitted to intensive care unit, with oral or enteral access. Patients will be randomised 1:1:1 to low-dose metformin (500 mg two times per day), high-dose metformin (1000 mg two times per day) or placebo for 5 days. Primary safety outcome will be the proportion of metformin-associated serious adverse events. Feasibility assessment will be based on acceptability by patients and clinicians, and by enrolment rate. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Institutional Review Board. All patients or surrogates will provide written consent prior to enrolment and any study intervention. Metformin is a widely available, inexpensive medication with a long track record for safety, which if effective would be accessible and easy to deploy. We describe the study methods using the Standard Protocol Items for Randomized Trials framework and discuss key design features and methodological decisions. LiMiT AKI will investigate the feasibility and safety of metformin in critically ill patients with sepsis at risk of SA-AKI, in preparation for a future large-scale efficacy study. Main results will be published as soon as available after final analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05900284.

Identification of a hyperinflammatory sepsis phenotype using protein biomarker and clinical data in the ProCESS randomized trial.

Sepsis is a heterogeneous syndrome and phenotypes have been proposed using clinical data. Less is known about the contribution of protein biomarkers to clinical sepsis phenotypes and their importance for treatment effects in randomized trials of resuscitation. The objective is to use both clinical and biomarker data in the Protocol-Based Care for Early Septic Shock (ProCESS) randomized trial to determine sepsis phenotypes and to test for heterogeneity of treatment effect by phenotype comparing usual care to protocolized early, goal-directed therapy(EGDT). In this secondary analysis of a subset of patients with biomarker sampling in the ProCESS trial (n = 543), we identified sepsis phenotypes prior to randomization using latent class analysis of 20 clinical and biomarker variables. Logistic regression was used to test for interaction between phenotype and treatment arm for 60-day inpatient mortality. Among 543 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in the ProCESS trial, a 2-class model best fit the data (p = 0.01). Phenotype 1 (n = 66, 12%) had increased IL-6, ICAM, and total bilirubin and decreased platelets compared to phenotype 2 (n = 477, 88%, p < 0.01 for all). Phenotype 1 had greater 60-day inpatient mortality compared to Phenotype 2 (41% vs 16%; p < 0.01). Treatment with EGDT was associated with worse 60-day inpatient mortality compared to usual care (58% vs. 23%) in Phenotype 1 only (p-value for interaction = 0.05). The 60-day inpatient mortality was similar comparing EGDT to usual care in Phenotype 2 (16% vs. 17%). We identified 2 sepsis phenotypes using latent class analysis of clinical and protein biomarker data at randomization in the ProCESS trial. Phenotype 1 had increased inflammation, organ dysfunction and worse clinical outcomes compared to phenotype 2. Response to EGDT versus usual care differed by phenotype.