COVID-19 infection rate and mortality in a local health authority in Italy: Differences between home-dwelling and residential older adults.

Objectives: The health emergency following the COVID-19 pandemic has seen hospital structures collapse and put in crisis nursing homes and other long-term care facilities worldwide. Our study aims to analyze and comparing the data relating to the infection rate and mortality for COVID-19 in the elderly over 75 living in the long-term care facilities and in the home-dwelling population. Study design: The study adopts a retrospective cohort design and was conducted in Italy, in the Lazio region, in the area of the Local Health Authority (LHA) named "Azienda Sanitaria Locale Roma 6". Methods: Data were extracted from the COVID-19 surveillance system of the Lazio region. The primary outcome is the SARS-CoV-2 incidence rate in the period between 1st September 2020 and 31st May 2021. The secondary outcome is the mortality rate. Results: Living in a residential versus a home-dwelling setting was associated with a higher infection rate (OR 5.03, CI 4.67-5.43; p < 0.001). The mortality rate was higher for individuals living in a residential setting (19.3 %, CI 17.1%-21.7 %) than those living at home (13.0 %, CI 11.7%-14.5 %). Conclusions: These findings confirm the high mortality in Long-Term Care Facilities and provide new information on the infection rate. The containment measures adopted in the Long-Term Care Facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, show limited correlation with reduced risk of contagion, but could have created unintended harm for the residents by increasing the social isolation and all other causes of mortality.

Emergency Medical Services Calls Analysis for Trend Prediction during Epidemic Outbreaks: Interrupted Time Series Analysis on 2020-2021 COVID-19 Epidemic in Lazio, Italy.

(1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020−2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D') of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a correlation between the variables. (3) Results: EMS calls variation from baseline is correlated with the slope of the curve of ICU admissions, with the most fitting value found at 7 days (R2 0.33, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: EMS calls deviation from baseline allows public health services to predict short-term epidemic trends in COVID-19 outbreaks, and can be used as validation of current data, or as an independent estimator of future trends.