Accounting for detection probability with overestimation by integrating double monitoring programs over 40 years.

In the context of wildlife population declines, increasing computer power over the last 20 years allowed wildlife managers to apply advanced statistical techniques that has improved population size estimates. However, respecting the assumptions of the models that consider the probability of detection, such as N-mixture models, requires the implementation of a rigorous monitoring protocol with several replicate survey occasions and no double counting that are hardly adaptable to field conditions. When the logistical, economic and ecological constraints are too strong to meet model assumptions, it may be possible to combine data from independent surveys into the modelling framework in order to understand population dynamics more reliably. Here, we present a state-space model with an error process modelled on the log scale to evaluate wintering waterfowl numbers in the Camargue, southern France, while taking a conditional probability of detection into consideration. Conditional probability of detection corresponds to estimation of a detection probability index, which is not a true probability of detection, but rather conditional on the difference to a particular baseline. The large number of sites (wetlands within the Camargue delta) and years monitored (44) provide significant information to combine both terrestrial and aerial surveys (which constituted spatially and temporally replicated counts) to estimate a conditional probability of detection, while accounting for false-positive counting errors and changes in observers over the study period. The model estimates abundance indices of wintering Common Teal, Mallard and Common Coot, all species abundant in the area. We found that raw counts were underestimated compared to the predicted population size. The model-based data integration approach as described here seems like a promising solution that takes advantage of as much as possible of the data collected from several methods when the logistic constraints do not allow the implementation of a permanent monitoring and analysis protocol that takes into account the detectability of individuals.

Geometagenomics illuminates the impact of agriculture on the distribution and prevalence of plant viruses at the ecosystem scale.

Disease emergence events regularly result from human activities such as agriculture, which frequently brings large populations of genetically uniform hosts into contact with potential pathogens. Although viruses cause nearly 50% of emerging plant diseases, there is little systematic information about virus distribution across agro-ecological interfaces and large gaps in understanding of virus diversity in nature. Here we applied a novel landscape-scale geometagenomics approach to examine relationships between agricultural land use and distributions of plant-associated viruses in two Mediterranean-climate biodiversity hotspots (Western Cape region of South Africa and Rhône river delta region of France). In total, we analysed 1725 geo-referenced plant samples collected over two years from 4.5 × 4.5 km2 grids spanning farmlands and adjacent uncultivated vegetation. We found substantial virus prevalence (25.8-35.7%) in all ecosystems, but prevalence and identified family-level virus diversity were greatest in cultivated areas, with some virus families displaying strong agricultural associations. Our survey revealed 94 previously unknown virus species, primarily from uncultivated plants. This is the first effort to systematically evaluate plant-associated viromes across broad agro-ecological interfaces. Our findings indicate that agriculture substantially influences plant virus distributions and highlight the extent of current ignorance about the diversity and roles of viruses in nature.