Development and Validation of a Scoring System to Predict Response to Obeticholic Acid in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obeticholic acid (OCA) is the only licensed second-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). With novel therapeutics in advanced development, clinical tools are needed to tailor the treatment algorithm. We aimed to derive and externally validate the OCA response score (ORS) for predicting the response probability of individuals with PBC to OCA. METHODS: We used data from the Italian RECAPITULATE (N = 441) and the IBER-PBC (N = 244) OCA real-world prospective cohorts to derive/validate a score including widely available variables obtained either pre-treatment (ORS) or also after 6 months of treatment (ORS+). Multivariable Cox regressions with backward selection were applied to obtain parsimonious predictive models. The predicted outcomes were biochemical response according to POISE (alkaline phosphatase [ALP]/upper limit of normal [ULN]<1.67 with a reduction of at least 15%, and normal bilirubin), or ALP/ULN<1.67, or normal range criteria (NR: normal ALP, alanine aminotransferase [ALT], and bilirubin) up to 24 months. RESULTS: Depending on the response criteria, ORS included age, pruritus, cirrhosis, ALP/ULN, ALT/ULN, GGT/ULN, and bilirubin. ORS+ also included ALP/ULN and bilirubin after 6 months of OCA therapy. Internally validated c-statistics for ORS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.72 for POISE, ALP/ULN<1.67, and NR response, which raised to 0.83, 0.88, and 0.81 with ORS+, respectively. The respective performances in validation were 0.70, 0.72, and 0.71 for ORS and 0.80, 0.84, and 0.78 for ORS+. Results were consistent across groups with mild/severe disease. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated a scoring system capable to predict OCA response according to different criteria. This tool will enhance a stratified second-line therapy model to streamline standard care and trial delivery in PBC.

Dynamics of Liver Stiffness Measurement and Clinical Course of Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.

Improving predictive accuracy in primary biliary cholangitis: A new genetic risk score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Genetic variants influence primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) risk. We established and tested an accurate polygenic risk score (PRS) using these variants. METHODS: Data from two Italian cohorts (OldIT 444 cases, 901 controls; NewIT 255 cases, 579 controls) were analysed. The latest international genome-wide meta-analysis provided effect size estimates. The PRS, together with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) status and sex, was included in an integrated risk model. RESULTS: Starting from 46 non-HLA genes, 22 variants were selected. PBC patients in the OldIT cohort showed a higher risk score than controls: -.014 (interquartile range, IQR, -.023, .005) versus -.022 (IQR -.030, -.013) (p < 2.2 × 10-16). For genetic-based prediction, the area under the curve (AUC) was .72; adding sex increased the AUC to .82. Validation in the NewIT cohort confirmed the model's accuracy (.71 without sex, .81 with sex). Individuals in the top group, representing the highest 25%, had a PBC risk approximately 14 times higher than that of the reference group (lowest 25%; p < 10-6). CONCLUSION: The combination of sex and a novel PRS accurately discriminated between PBC cases and controls. The model identified a subset of individuals at increased risk of PBC who might benefit from tailored monitoring.

European Society for Organ Transplantation (ESOT) Consensus Statement on Outcome Measures in Liver Transplantation According to Value-Based Health Care.

Liver transplantation is a highly complex, life-saving, treatment for many patients with advanced liver disease. Liver transplantation requires multidisciplinary teams, system-wide adaptations and significant investment, as well as being an expensive treatment. Several metrics have been proposed to monitor processes and outcomes, however these lack patient focus and do not capture all aspects of the process. Most of the reported outcomes do not capture those outcomes that matter to the patients. Adopting the principles of Value-Based Health Care (VBHC), may provide an opportunity to develop those metrics that matter to patients. In this article, we present a Consensus Statement on Outcome Measures in Liver Transplantation following the principles of VBHC, developed by a dedicated panel of experts under the auspices of the European Society of Organ Transplantation (ESOT) Guidelines' Taskforce. The overarching goal is to provide a framework to facilitate the development of outcome measures as an initial step to apply the VMC paradigm to liver transplantation.