Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study.

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival, cure fraction, time to cure (when 5-year conditional net survival becomes > 95%), cure prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and already cured (living longer than time to cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121 704) of Italian women were alive after diagnosis of corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52 551) after cervical cancer, and 0.2% (52 153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (cure prevalence). Women with gynecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% at 5 years after diagnosis. The cure fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time to cure was ≤10 years for women with gynecological cancers aged <55 years; 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were already cured. These results can contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.

Asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality in Italian cement-asbestos cohorts: Dose-response relationship and the role of competing death causes.

OBJECTIVES: In Italy, asbestos was used intensively until its ban in 1992, which was extended for asbestos cement factories until 1994. The aim of this study was to evaluate the dose-response between asbestos exposure and asbestosis mortality across a pool of Italian occupational cohorts, taking into account the presence of competing risks. METHODS: Cohorts were followed for vital status and the cause of death was ascertained by a linkage with mortality registers. Cause-specific (CS) Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the dose-exposure relationship between asbestosis mortality and the time-dependent cumulative exposure index (CEI) to asbestos. Fine and Gray regression models were computed to assess the effect of competing risks of death. RESULTS: The cohort included 12,963 asbestos cement workers. During the follow-up period (1960-2012), of a total of 6961 deaths, we observed 416 deaths attributed to asbestosis, 879 to lung cancer, 400 to primary pleural cancer, 135 to peritoneal cancer, and 1825 to diseases of the circulatory system. The CS model showed a strong association between CEI and asbestosis mortality. Dose-response models estimated an increasing trend in mortality even below a CEI of 25 ff/mL-years. Lung cancer and circulatory diseases were the main competing causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Asbestos exposure among Italian asbestos-cement workers has led to a very high number of deaths from asbestosis and asbestos-related diseases. The increasing risk trend associated with excess deaths, even at low exposure levels, suggests that the proposed limit values would not have been adequate to prevent disability and mortality from asbestosis.

Rate advancement measurement for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma in asbestos-exposed workers.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to asbestos increases the risk of lung cancer and mesothelioma. Few studies quantified the premature occurrence of these diseases in asbestos-exposed workers. Focus on premature disease onset (rate advancement or acceleration) can be useful in risk communication and for the evaluation of exposure impact. We estimated rate advancement for total mortality, lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma deaths, by classes of cumulative asbestos exposure in a pooled cohort of asbestos cement (AC) workers in Italy. METHOD: The cohort study included 12 578 workers from 21 cohorts, with 6626 deaths in total, 858 deaths from lung cancer and 394 from pleural malignant neoplasm (MN). Rate advancement was estimated by fitting a competitive mortality Weibull model to the hazard of death over time since first exposure (TSFE). RESULT: Acceleration time (AT) was estimated at different TSFE values. The highest level of cumulative exposure compared with the lowest, for pleural MN AT was 16.9 (95% CI 14.9 to 19.2) and 33.8 (95% CI 29.8 to 38.4) years at TSFE of 20 and 40 years, respectively. For lung cancer, it was 13.3 (95% CI 12.0 to 14.7) and 26.6 (95% CI 23.9 to 29.4) years, respectively. As for total mortality, AT was 3.35 (95% CI 2.98 to 3.71) years at 20 years TSFE, and 6.70 (95% CI 5.95 to 7.41) at 40 years TSFE. CONCLUSION: The current study observed marked rate advancement after asbestos exposure for lung cancer and pleural mesothelioma, as well as for total mortality.

Excess risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms in adolescent and young adult cancer survivors: Results from the first Italian population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Evidence about late effects in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors is scarce. This study assessed the risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) to identify the most common SMNs to be considered in follow-up care. METHODS: Population-based cancer registries retrospectively identified first primary tumors (between 1976 and 2013) and SMNs in AYAs (15-39 years old at their cancer diagnosis). AYA cancer survivors were those alive at least 5 years after their first cancer diagnosis. The excess risk of SMNs was measured as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and absolute excess risk together with the cumulative incidence of SMNs. RESULTS: The cohort included 67,692 AYA cancer survivors. The excess risk of developing any SMN (SIR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-1.7) was 60%. The excess risk of SMNs was significantly high for survivors of lymphomas; cancers of the breast, thyroid, female genital tract, digestive organs, gonads, and urinary tract; and melanomas. The cumulative incidence of all SMNs in AYA cancer survivors within 25 years of their first cancer diagnosis was approximately 10%. Subsequent tumors contributing to approximately 60% of all SMNs were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uteri cancer, and ovarian cancer in females and colorectal cancer, bladder cancer, prostate cancer, lung cancer, and lymphomas in males. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the need to personalize follow-up strategies for AYA cancer survivors.

Is extensive cardiopulmonary screening useful in athletes with previous asymptomatic or mild SARS-CoV-2 infection?

OBJECTIVE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, it is essential to understand if and how to screen SARS-CoV-2-positive athletes to safely resume training and competitions. The aim of this study is to understand which investigations are useful in a screening protocol aimed at protecting health but also avoiding inappropriate examinations. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of a professional soccer team that is based on an extensive screening protocol for resuming training during the COVID-19 pandemic. It included personal history, antigen swabs, blood tests, spirometry, resting/stress-test ECG with oxygen saturation monitoring, echocardiogram, Holter and chest CT. We also compared the findings with prior data from the same subjects before infection and with data from SARS-CoV-2-negative players. RESULTS: None of the players had positive swab and/or anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM class antibodies. Out of 30 players, 18 (60%) had IgG class antibodies. None had suffered severe SARS-CoV-2-related disease, 12 (66.7%) had complained of mild COVID-19-related symptoms and 6 (33.3%) were asymptomatic. None of the players we examined revealed significant cardiovascular abnormalities after clinical recovery. A mild reduction in spirometry parameters versus pre-COVID-19 values was observed in all athletes, but it was statistically significant (p<0.05) only in SARS-CoV-2-positive athletes. One SARS-CoV-2-positive player showed increased troponin I level, but extensive investigation did not show signs of myocardial damage. CONCLUSION: In this small cohort of athletes with previous asymptomatic/mild SARS-CoV-2 infection, a comprehensive screening protocol including blood tests, spirometry, resting ECG, stress-test ECG with oxygen saturation monitoring and echocardiogram did not identify relevant anomalies. While larger studies are needed, extensive cardiorespiratory and haematological screening in athletes with asymptomatic/mild SARS-CoV-2 infection appears unnecessary.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Athletes in Italy during 2019: Internet-Based Epidemiological Research.

Background and objectives: An Italian nationwide pre-participation screening approach for prevention of sudden cardiac death in athletes (SCD-A) in competitive sportspeople showed promising results but did not achieve international consensus, due to cost-effectiveness and the shortfall of a monitoring plan. From this perspective, we tried to provide an epidemiological update of SCD-A in Italy through a year-long internet-based search. Materials and Methods: One year-long Google search was performed using mandatory and non-mandatory keywords. Data were collected according to prevalent SCD-A definition and matched with sport-related figures from Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and Italian National Olympic Committee (CONI). Results: Ninety-eight cases of SCD-A in 2019 were identified (48.0% competitive, 52.0% non-competitive athletes). Male/female ratio was 13:1. The most common sports were soccer (33.7%), athletics (15.3%) and fitness (13.3%). A conclusive diagnosis was achieved only in 37 cases (33 of cardiac origin), with the leading diagnosis being coronary artery disease in 27 and a notably higher occurrence among master athletes. Combining these findings with ISTAT and CONI data, the SCD-A incidence rate in the whole Italian sport population was found to be 0.47/100,000 persons per year (1.00/100,000 in the competitive and 0.32/100,000 in the non-competitive population). The relative risk of SCD-A is 3.1 (CI 2.1-4.7; p < 0.0001) for competitive compared to non-competitive athletes; 9.9 for male (CI 4.6-21.4; p < 0.0001) with respect to female. Conclusions: We provided an updated incidence rate of SCD-A in both competitive and non-competitive sport in Italy. A higher risk of SCD-A among competitive and male athletes was confirmed, thus corroborating the value of Italian pre-participation screening in this population.

Role of asbestos clearance in explaining long-term risk of pleural and peritoneal cancer: a pooled analysis of cohort studies.

OBJECTIVES: Models based on the multistage theory of cancer predict that rates of malignant mesothelioma continuously increase with time since first exposure (TSFE) to asbestos, even after the end of external exposure. However, recent epidemiological studies suggest that mesothelioma rates level off many years after first exposure to asbestos. A gradual clearance of asbestos from the lungs has been suggested as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. We analysed long-term trends of pleural and peritoneal cancer mortality in subjects exposed to asbestos to evaluate whether such trends were consistent with the clearance hypothesis. METHODS: We used data from a pool of 43 Italian asbestos cohorts (51 801 subjects). The role of asbestos clearance was explored using the traditional mesothelioma multistage model, generalised to include a term representing elimination of fibres over time. RESULTS: Rates of pleural cancer increased until 40 years of TSFE, but remained stable thereafter. On the other hand, we observed a monotonic increase of peritoneal cancer with TSFE. The model taking into account asbestos clearance fitted the data better than the traditional one for pleural (p=0.004) but not for peritoneal (p=0.09) cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of pleural cancer do not increase indefinitely after the exposure to asbestos, but eventually reach a plateau. This trend is well described by a model accounting for a gradual elimination of the asbestos fibres. These results are relevant for the prediction of future rates of mesothelioma and in asbestos litigations.

Cumulative asbestos exposure and mortality from asbestos related diseases in a pooled analysis of 21 asbestos cement cohorts in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Despite the available information on cancer risk, asbestos is used in large areas in the world, mostly in the production of asbestos cement. Moreover, questions are raised regarding the shape of the dose response relation, the relation with time since exposure and the association with neoplasms in various organs. We conducted a study on the relationship between cumulative asbestos exposure and mortality from asbestos related diseases in a large Italian pool of 21 cohorts of asbestos-cement workers with protracted exposure to both chrysotile and amphibole asbestos. METHODS: The cohort included 13,076 workers, 81.9% men and 18.1% women, working in 21 Italian asbestos-cement factories, with over 40 years of observation. Exposure was estimated by plant and period, and weighted for the type of asbestos used. Data were analysed with consideration of cause of death, cumulative exposure and time since first exposure (TSFE), and by gender. SMRs were computed using reference rates by region, gender and calendar time. Poisson regression models including cubic splines were used to analyse the effect of cumulative exposure to asbestos and TSFE on mortality for asbestos-related diseases. 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were computed according to the Poisson distribution. RESULTS: Mortality was significantly increased for 'All Causes' and 'All Malignant Neoplasm (MN)', in both genders. Considering asbestos related diseases (ARDs), statistically significant excesses were observed for MN of peritoneum (SMR: men 14.19; women 15.14), pleura (SMR: 22.35 and 48.10), lung (SMR: 1.67 and 1.67), ovary (in the highest exposure class SMR 2.45), and asbestosis (SMR: 507 and 1023). Mortality for ARDs, in particular pleural and peritoneal malignancies, lung cancer, ovarian cancer and asbestosis increased monotonically with cumulative exposure. Pleural MN mortality increased progressively in the first 40 years of TSFE, then reached a plateau, while peritoneal MN showed a continuous increase. The trend of lung cancer SMRs also showed a flattening after 40 years of TSFE. Attributable proportions for pleural, peritoneal, and lung MN were respectively 96, 93 and 40%. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality for ARDs was associated with cumulative exposure to asbestos. Risk of death from pleural MN did not increase indefinitely with TSFE but eventually reached a plateau, consistently with reports from other recent studies.

Italian pool of asbestos workers cohorts: mortality trends of asbestos-related neoplasms after long time since first exposure.

OBJECTIVE: Asbestos is a known human carcinogen, with evidence for malignant mesothelioma (MM), cancers of lung, ovary, larynx and possibly other organs. MM rates are predicted to increase with a power of time since first exposure (TSFE), but the possible long-term attenuation of the trend is debated. The asbestos ban enforced in Italy in 1992 gives an opportunity to measure long-term cancer risk in formerly exposed workers. METHODS: Pool of 43 previously studied Italian asbestos cohorts (asbestos cement, rolling stock, shipbuilding), with mortality follow-up updated to 2010. SMRs were computed for the 1970â€"2010 period, for the major causes, with consideration of duration and TSFE, using reference rates by age, sex, region and calendar period. RESULTS: The study included 51 801 subjects (5741 women): 55.9% alive, 42.6% died (cause known for 95%) and 1.5% lost to follow-up. Mortality was significantly increased for all deaths (SMR: men: 1.05, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.06; women: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.12 to 1.22), all malignancies combined (SMR: men: 1.17, 95% CI to 1.14 to 1.20; women: 1.33, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.43), pleural and peritoneal malignancies (SMR: men: 13.28 and 4.77, 95% CI 12.24 to 14.37 and 4.00 to 5.64; women: 28.44 and 6.75, 95% CI 23.83 to 33.69 and 4.70 to 9.39), lung (SMR: men: 1.26, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.31; women: 1.43, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.78) and ovarian cancer (SMR=1.38, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.87) and asbestosis (SMR: men: 300.7, 95% CI 270.7 to 333.2; women: 389.6, 95% CI 290.1 to 512.3). Pleural cancer rate increased during the first 40 years of TSFE and reached a plateau after. DISCUSSION: The study confirmed the increased risk for cancer of the lung, ovary, pleura and peritoneum but not of the larynx and the digestive tract. Pleural cancer mortality reached a plateau at long TSFE, coherently with recent reports.

QTc Interval in Adolescents and Young Athletes: Influence of Correction Formulas.

A QTc interval at the upper limits in young athletes can be challenging. Regardless of factors able to influence it (age, electrolytes, etc.), several authors underlined that rate correction formulas can often underestimate/overestimate it. Our objective was to identify the most reliable formula and relative upper normal limit of QTc for this population. The rest ECG of 701 healthy elite male athletes was analyzed. QTc was calculated with 4 formulas (Bazett, Fridericia, Framingham, Hodges). Correlation/regression analysis of QTc vs. heart rate and upper limits were calculated and compared considering different age groups. Abnormal ECGs were compared considering different upper limits. Correlation between QTc and heart rate was highly significant using Bazett's and Framingham's formulas, lower using Hodges' formula, and not significant using Fridericia's formula. Except for Framingham's, the number of abnormal ECGs was identical considering an upper limit of 480 msec, and significantly different for lower limits. Upper limits were: Bazett 469 msec, Fridericia 451 msec, Framingham 458 msec, and Hodges 461 msec. Except for Framingham's, no difference among other formulas in individuating abnormal ECGs for QTc≥480 msec was found. QTc obtained with the Bazett's formula appears highly dependent on heart rate. This, especially in the grey zone (440-480 msec), can lead to overtesting. Framingham's formula shows similar limits. Hodges' formula offers uncertain reliability. Fridericia's formula seems the most reliable.

Survival of cancer patients in Italy. / La sopravvivenza dei pazienti oncologici in Italia.

OBJECTIVES: Population-based survival statistics are fundamental to assess the efficacy of services offered to improve cancer patients' prognosis. This study aims to update cancer survival estimates for the Italian population, as well as provide new measures, such as the crude probability of death, which takes into account the possibility of dying from causes other than cancer, and the change in life expectancy after a cancer diagnosis, to properly address various questions. RESULTS: The study includes 1,932,450 cancer cases detected by the Network of Italian Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) from 1994 to 2011 and provides estimates for 38 cancer sites and for allsites cancer. For most common cancers diagnosed from 2005 to 2009, age-standardized 5-year net survival was: colon-rectum - males 65%, females 65%; lung - males 15%, females 19%; breast 87%; prostate 91%. For cancer sites such as stomach, colon, rectum, lung, skin melanoma, breast, cervix, prostate, and kidney, 5-year net survival is consistent between Central and Northern Italy, while it is a few percentage points lower in Southern Italy. Funnel plots expose these differences more in detail by showing the survival estimates in 13 Italian regions. For all sites but skin, 5- and 10-year net survival increased by about 10 percentage points in men and 7 points in women from 1994 to 2011. DISCUSSION: Specific articles deal with results on solid and haematological malignancies, international comparisons and analysis of time trends of incidence, mortality, and survival in combination for key cancer sites, aiming to interpret overall progress in the control of cancer in Italy.

Non-occupational exposure to heavy metals of the residents of an industrial area and biomonitoring.

In areas at high environmental risk, a major issue is the assessment of the exposure of the general population to industrial pollutants. To date, few studies have investigated exposure to heavy metals in a population residing in a high risk environmental area. The aim of this study is to evaluate the exposure to heavy metals in the industrial area of Taranto, Southern Italy, through biological monitoring techniques. We measured the levels of inorganic arsenic and methylated metabolites, lead, cadmium, chromium, and manganese in the urine samples of 279 subjects residing in Taranto and neighboring areas. After obtaining informed consent from each participant, qualified health staff administered a standardized structured questionnaire investigating lifestyle habits and assessing any confounding factors. The biological monitoring data showed high urinary concentrations of nearly all of the heavy metals investigated. These findings could be related to the presence of industrial plants and is sufficient to warrant the expectation that local and national institutions should be required to adopt preventive measures to reduce the environmental exposure of the general population to heavy metals.

[Time trend in mesothelioma and lung cancer risk in asbestos workers in Italy]. / Valutazione della variazione temporale del rischio di mesotelioma e di tumore del polmone nelle coorti di esposti ad amianto per lavoro in Italia.

This study aims at investigating, in asbestos exposed workers, the time trend of their risk of mesothelioma and of other neoplasm after very long latency and after the cessation of asbestos exposure. We pooled a large number of Italian cohorts of asbestos workers and updated mortality follow-up. The pool of data for statistical analyses includes 51,988 workers, of which 6,058 women: 54.2% was alive at follow-up, 42.6% was dead, and 2.8%was lost. Cause of death is known for 94.3%: 2,548 deaths from lung cancer, 748 frompleural cancer, 173 fromperitoneal cancer, and 434 from asbestosis. An exposure index is being developed to compare the different cohorts. Data analysis is in progress. This study will have the size for analysing not only time trends in mesothelioma, but also the occurrence of rarer diseases and cancer specific mortality in women.

Ultra-Processed Food Consumption as a Risk Factor for Gastrointestinal Cancer and Other Causes of Mortality in Southern Italy: A Competing Risk Approach.

BACKGROUND: Ultra-Processed Foods (UPFs) are increasingly consumed worldwide, even in regions with strong dietary traditions like the Mediterranean and can play a crucial role in the development of chronic diseases, including cancer. This population-based prospective cohort study investigates the association between UPF consumption and gastrointestinal cancers and other causes of mortality in Southern Italy. METHODS: Data were collected from 4870 participants in the MICOL and NUTRIHEP cohorts. The EPIC questionnaire was used to elicit information on food and drink consumption and UPFs were categorized by degree of processing according to the NOVA classification. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk models were employed for statistical analysis. RESULTS: UPF consumption was positively associated with all-cause mortality: participants in the 3rd UFP quartile, as compared to the lowest, had a 27% higher risk of death (SHR 1.27 95% CI, 1.03; 1.57), while in the highest quartile as compared to the lowest, the risk was 34% higher (SHR 1.34 95% CI, 1.00; 1.79). Higher UPFs intake was also correlated with an increased gastrointestinal cancers mortality risk, especially the 2nd (SHR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.01; 2.71) and 4th quartile (SHR 3.14 95% CI: 1.56; 6.32), with a dose-dependent effect. For the other cancers, a SHR 1.61 (95% CI 1.03; 2.54) was observed for the 3rd quartile. CONCLUSIONS: Our results reinforce the link between UPF consumption and cancer risk, emphasizing the urgent need for interventions targeting dietary patterns.

Adding a Leafy Vegetable Fraction to Diets Decreases the Risk of Red Meat Mortality in MASLD Subjects: Results from the MICOL Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend limiting red meat intake because it has been amply associated with increased cancer mortality, particularly in patients with liver conditions, such as metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MASLD). MASLD is the leading cause of liver dysfunction in the world today, and no specific treatment other than lifestyle correction has yet been established. The aim of this study was to explore the protective role of leafy vegetables when associated with high red meat consumption. METHODS: The study cohort included 1646 participants assessed during the fourth recall of the MICOL study, subdivided into two groups based on red meat intake (≤50 g/die vs. >50 g/die), in order to conduct a cancer mortality analysis. The prevalence of subjects that consumed >50 g/die was only 15.73%. Leafy vegetable intake was categorized based on median g/die consumption, and it was combined with red meat intake. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate that the consumption of about 30 g/die of leafy vegetables reduces the risk of mortality. A strong association with mortality was observed in subjects with MASLD, and the protective role of vegetables was demonstrated.

Protective Role of Lycopene in Subjects with Liver Disease: NUTRIHEP Study.

BACKGROUND: Liver diseases are constantly increasing throughout the world and are often associated with other diseases, but above all they are caused by improper diet. Adherence to a diet with abundant vegetables has now been widely demonstrated to be important in combating this pathological condition. The aim of this study was to explore the protective role of lycopene (LYC) extracts from cooked and fresh tomato. METHODS: The study cohort included 969 participants assessed in the NUTRIHEP cohort (2005-2006) and the associated follow-up (2014-2016), divided into two groups, based on liver condition: NAFLD, or AFLD and FLD. RESULTS: The results indicated a statistical significance of LYC consumption, showing a protective role against liver disease, the best concentration being 9.50 mg/die, with an RR value of 0.59, p = 0.01, 0.39 to 0.90 at 95% C.I., and RRR = 0.40, p = 0.002, 0.22 to 0.71 at 95% C.I. CONCLUSIONS: The protective role of LYC extracts from tomato has not been amply demonstrated in humans. We conclude that this is one of the few papers in the literature to evaluate the protective effect of LYC against liver disease, as well as how this molecule could be used in future possible treatments. Utilizing lycopene as a supplement alone or in combination with other foods could be useful for developing treatments with reduced contraindications.

Effects of Egg Consumption on Subjects with SLD or Hypertension: A MICOL Study.

BACKGROUND: Steatotic liver disease (SLD) is defined as a fat accumulation in more than 5% of hepatocytes; it can progress to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), associated with an increased state of inflammation. The aim of this study was to explore the protective effects of eating eggs and any association with SLD and hypertension (HTN). METHODS: The study cohort included 908 participants assessed in the fourth recall of the MICOL study, grouped into four groups, based on NALFD and/or HTN. RESULTS: The prevalence of HTN and SLD among participants was 31.61%. Overall, the results indicated a statistical significance of egg consumption, showing a protective role against the two disease conditions, in both the raw and adjusted models (RRR = 0.34, p = 0.009, 0.15 to 0.76 95% C.I.). CONCLUSIONS: Many differences were found among the groups, and the protective role of eating eggs was amply demonstrated. We can conclude that it is unwise to demonize the intake of this food and its nutritional properties, in contrast with previous reports in the literature.

Development and Internal Validation of a Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Subjects with MAFLD: A Cohort Study.

Background & Aims: Fatty liver disease with metabolic dysfunction (MAFLD) is a new concept proposed to replace the previous concept of Non-Alcoholic Hepatic Steatosis (NAFLD). We developed and internally validated a prognostic model to predict the likelihood of death in a cohort of subjects with MAFLD. Methods: Our work involved two steps: the first was the construction of a bootstrapped multivariable Cox model for mortality risk prognosis and the second was its validation. Results: The study cohort included 1506 subjects, of which 907 were used for internal validation. Discriminant measures for the final model were R2D 0.6845 and Harrell's C 0.8422 in the development and R2D 0.6930 and Harrell's C 0.8465 in the validation. We used the nine independent prognostic factors selected by the LASSO Cox procedure and fitted by the bootstrap Cox survival model, and observed ß were: Gender 0.356 1.42 (p < 0.008), Age 0.146 (p < 0.001), Glycemia 0.004 (p < 0.002), Total Cholesterol -0.0040 (p < 0.009), Gamma Glutamyl Transpeptidase 0.009 (p < 0.001), SBP 0.009 (p < 0.036), DBP -0.016 (p < 0.041), ALP 0.008 (p < 0.071) and Widowhood 0.550 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: We produced and validated a model to estimate the probability of death in subjects with MAFLD. The instruments we used showed satisfactory predictive capabilities.

Prevalence and indicators of cure of Italian women with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Five-year net survival and conditional survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) patients in Italy have shown no progress during the past three decades. This study aims to estimate the complete prevalence and multiple indicators of cure. METHODS: Observed prevalence was estimated using 31 Italian cancer registries covering 47 % of Italian women. A subset of 22 cancer registries was used to estimate model-based long-term survival and indicators of cure, i.e., complete prevalence, cure fraction (CF), time to cure (TTC), proportion of 'already cured' patients, and cure prevalence. RESULTS: In 2018, VSCC patients alive in Italy (complete prevalence) were 6620 or 22 per 100,000 women. The cure fraction (the proportion of newly diagnosed patients who will not die of VSCC) did not change between 2000 and 2010 both for all patients (32 %) and in each age group. The time to cure (5-year conditional net survival >95 %) was 11 years for patients aged ≥44 years, but excess mortality remained for >15 years in the other age groups. This led to a negligible (5 %) proportion of 'already cured' patients (living longer than time to cure). The proportion of patients alive <2 years (21 %) was the same as that of patients surviving ≥15 years. The cure prevalence (patients who will not die of VSCC) was 64 %. A considerable proportion of patients will not be cured even among those who survived ≥5 years. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need to reshape the current vulvar care model in Italy.