Unemployment and Crime in US Cities During the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI: - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI: - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.

The impact of living in an un- or under-furnished house on individuals who transitioned from homelessness.

Very few empirical evaluations have been conducted on the impact of furniture on the lives of those who have transitioned from homelessness into permanent housing, especially within the United States. Our study contributes to this limited body of research by exploring the impact of furniture on the lives of 20 recently housed individuals residing in the Detroit Metropolitan Area. In partnership with the Furniture Bank of Southeast Michigan, we conducted semi-structured interviews with recently housed individuals that lived for a period of time in an un- or under-furnished house before receiving furniture support. Given the study's exploratory nature, interview questions were purposefully broad to allow themes to naturally emerge and were analyzed using a qualitative data analysis software package, NVivo (release 1.0). We present a conceptual model that outlines our findings and conclude with a discussion of the limitations of our approach, avenues for future research, and policy implications.

Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Violent crime increased and most property crime decreased in many United States (US) cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Using negative binomial regressions, we examined the association between physical distancing (a central coronavirus containment strategy) and crime within 16 large cities (in 12 US states and the District of Columbia) through July 2020. Physical distancing was measured with aggregated smartphone data and defined as the average change in the percentage of the population staying completely at home. Outcome data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive and city open data portals. In multivariable models, increases in the percentage of the population staying home were associated with decreases in reported incidents of aggravated assault, interpersonal firearm violence, theft, rape, and robbery, and increases in arson, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Results suggest that changes in the frequency of interpersonal interactions affected crime during the coronavirus pandemic. More research is needed on the specificity of these assocations and their underlying mechanisms.

Ghost guns and crime: a tale of two California cities.

BACKGROUND: Privately made firearms (PMFs) or "ghost guns" are homemade, unserialized, untraceable firearms that have been increasingly used in violent crime in the United States. Very little is known about the types of PMFs recovered by law enforcement agencies and the crimes associated with these recoveries. This lack of information limits effective violence prevention policies and practices. Comparative analysis of PMF recoveries in specific cities helps clarify whether local PMF patterns and characteristics vary or reflect more general trends. This research advances epidemiological understanding of emergent violent gun injury prevention challenges by identifying variations in recovered PMF types and use in violent, drug, and weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles and San Diego, California. METHODS: Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) identifies patterns among observations (i.e., case configurations) and calculates their probability associated with a given outcome. CACC was used to identify the most common types of PMFs recovered by the Los Angeles (LAPD) and San Diego (SDPD) police departments. For each department and offense type, case configurations with above-average probabilities of offense involvement were determined. Comparisons across departments were made to identify similarities and differences in PMF characteristics and usage. RESULTS: PMFs were more likely to be involved in violent and weapon-related offenses in Los Angles but more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses in San Diego. In both cities, the 9 mm Polymer 80 handgun was the dominant PMF. However, 9 mm handguns were most likely to be involved in weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles compared to 0.40 handguns in San Diego. Furthermore, large-caliber handguns tended to display above-average probabilities of involvement in violent and drug offenses in Los Angeles. Long guns were represented in case configurations with above-average probabilities of involvement in substantive crimes, including violence. CONCLUSIONS: Comparative analyses of PMF recovery patterns in Los Angeles and San Diego reveal meaningful contextual variations in PMF characteristics and suggest intentional firearm type selections by offenders. The results support increased regulation of PMFs and highlight the importance of efforts to identify and disrupt the illicit supply of large-caliber PMF handguns and PMF long guns.

Law Enforcement Officer Knowledge of, Attitudes Toward, and Willingness to Use Extreme Risk Protection Orders.

Importance: Understanding knowledge of, attitudes toward, and willingness to use extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws among law enforcement officers (LEOs) can inform efforts to improve implementation of this underused firearm violence prevention strategy. Objective: To characterize LEOs' knowledge of, attitudes toward, and willingness to use ERPOs across a range of scenarios. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional online survey, fielded from April 5 to August 30, 2021, was conducted in all 19 states and the District of Columbia with an ERPO law in 2021. A nonprobability sample of active-duty LEOs was used. Exposure: Being a LEO in a state with an ERPO law. Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey participants answered questions about their familiarity with and opinions on ERPO laws, as well as whether they would agree with using an ERPO in a variety of specific case scenarios. The analysis included an exploration of whether within-scenario differences, such as ERPO respondent race or gender, affected agreement by randomly assigning survey participants to 1 of 2 versions of each scenario. Results: A total of 600 eligible individuals started the survey, and 283 survey participants were included in the analysis. The analytic sample consisted mostly of cisgender men (85.2%) and non-Hispanic White (71.4%) LEOs. Participants represented 14 states and the District of Columbia, with 53.7% living in California. Most participants (81.3%) were very or somewhat familiar with ERPO laws and 56.2% had received ERPO training. Opinions about ERPO laws were generally favorable but varied by self-identified political ideology. Across all scenarios, most participants supported using an ERPO; however, support was highest in cases involving intimate partner violence (71.4%-78.6%) and lowest in cases involving suicidality (54.2%-73.3%). Across all scenarios, LEOs with ERPO training or experience were substantially more likely to agree with using ERPOs than those without. None of the randomly assigned within-scenario differences were associated with differences in ERPO support. Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study of LEOs in states with ERPO laws, many officers had not received training on their use. Additionally, while conservative political ideology was associated with less favorable views of ERPOs, training and experience with ERPOs was associated with greater support for their use across a range of scenarios. These findings suggest that LEO training on ERPOs may promote their uptake and improve implementation.

Firearm purchasing and firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Firearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchasing following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may have contributed to an increase in firearm violence. We sought to estimate the state-level association between firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through July 2020. Data were obtained from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (a proxy for firearm purchasing) and the Gun Violence Archive. Using negative binomial regression models, we estimated the association between cumulative excess firearm purchases in March through July 2020 (measured as the difference between observed rates and those expected from autoregressive integrated moving average models) and injuries (including nonfatal and fatal) from intentional, interpersonal firearm violence (non-domestic and domestic violence). RESULTS: We estimated that there were 4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020 and a total of 4075 more firearm injuries than expected from April through July. We found no relationship between state-level excess purchasing and non-domestic firearm violence, e.g., each excess purchase per 100 population was associated with a rate ratio (RR) of firearm injury from non-domestic violence of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.50-1.02) in April; 0.99 (95% CI: 0.72-1.25) in May; 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93-1.32) in June; and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12) in July. Excess firearm purchasing within states was associated with an increase in firearm injuries from domestic violence in April (RR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.32-5.93) and May (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.19-2.91), though estimates were sensitive to model specification. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide, firearm purchasing and firearm violence increased substantially during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic. At the state level, the magnitude of the increase in purchasing was not associated with the magnitude of the increase in firearm violence. Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research.