Diverse values of nature for sustainability.

Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature's diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature's values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature7. Arguably, a 'values crisis' underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change8, pandemic emergence9 and socio-environmental injustices10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature's diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.

Bumblebees moving up: shifts in elevation ranges in the Pyrenees over 115 years.

In a warming climate, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges to higher elevations and latitudes, and if interacting species shift at different rates, networks may be disrupted. To quantify the effects of ongoing climate change, repeating historical biodiversity surveys is necessary. In this study, we compare the distribution of a plant-pollinator community between two surveys 115 years apart (1889 and 2005-06), reporting distribution patterns and changes observed for bumblebee species and bumblebee-visited plants in the Gavarnie-Gèdre commune in the Pyrenees, located in southwest Europe at the French-Spanish border. The region has warmed significantly over this period, alongside shifts in agricultural land use and forest. The composition of the bumblebee community shows relative stability, but we observed clear shifts to higher elevations for bumblebees (averaging 129 m) and plants (229 m) and provide preliminary evidence that some bumblebee species shift with the plants they visit. We also observe that some species have been able to occupy the same climate range in both periods by shifting elevation range. The results suggest the need for long-term monitoring to determine the role and impact of the different drivers of global change, especially in montane habitats where the impacts of climate changes are anticipated to be more extreme.

Contribution of agroecological farming systems to the delivery of ecosystem services.

Agroecology has been suggested as a promising concept for reconciling agricultural production and environmental sustainability by optimizing ecological processes that deliver ecosystem services (ES) to replace external inputs. While this statement is widely agreed upon, few assessments of real-life conditions exist that assess multiple ES simultaneously. This paper provides an assessment of seven ES based on 14 indicators in three agroecological farming systems (AFS) and thirteen of their adjacent conventional farming systems (CFS). Based on field-scale measurements spread over three years, our findings suggest that the studied AFS succeed in providing a wider array of regulating services than their neighboring CFS. Soil aggregate stability and soil respiration rates are in general more supported in AFS, which also show lower pest abundance. On the other hand, CFS show higher grain production and higher performance for two out of three fodder quality indices. While this 'productivity gap' may be due to the still-evolving state of the studied AFS, we nuance this through the lens of an emerging paradigm to assess farming system multi-performance. It is now argued that we need to shift from a volume-focused production system to a system that also values the ecological processes underpinning crop production and other benefits to society. Based on our findings, we recommend future work to iterate our initiative, including several indicators per service and embed these into a wider context of co-adaptive science-practice to further develop context-specific and user-useful research.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.

Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.

Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages.

River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts.

Effort for money? Farmers' rationale for participation in agri-environment measures with different implementation complexity.

European agri-environment programmes are based on the common principle that farmers deliver environmental services for which society pays. Due to the voluntary nature of agri-environment measures (AEM), the issue of farmers' motives or reasons for participation has been an important topic of investigation in past years. The present paper examines farmers' rationale for participation in AEM against the backdrop of continued debate over whether to develop relatively simple measures that can be readily applied by many farmers or give greater priority to measures that are more targeted - i.e. to the specific management requirement of particular habitats or species - but are often more complex. The paper draws on empirical material from a case study in the Dyle valley, Belgium, including in-depth interviews, expert consultations and a mail survey. It was sought not only to identify and quantify the importance of separate reasons for participation, but also to reveal how these reasons and other elements of relevance were logically interrelated in the explanation that farmers themselves give for their participation. As a result, six modes or styles of participation were identified: opportunistic, calculative, compensatory, optimising, catalysing and engaged. The analyses suggest that there were notable differences in that both separate reasons for and modes of participation do vary with the complexity of the measures' requirements. Overall, the study demonstrates that participation in AEM is not simply a matter of weighing the money against the effort for adoption. Whereas money is an important driver for participation (in particular, for those adopting complex AEM) it plays widely differing roles depending on the level of farmers' reasoning (farm enterprise, single practice or landscape feature) and the importance they give to other considerations (environmental effect, production potential of land, goodness of fit, etc.). Practical implications are drawn for both policy makers and programme managers who develop and make available tailor-made support.

Residential green space in association with the methylation status in a CpG site within the promoter region of the placental serotonin receptor HTR2A.

Green space could influence adult cognition and childhood neurodevelopment , and is hypothesized to be partly driven by epigenetic modifications. However, it remains unknown whether some of these associations are already evident during foetal development. Similar biological signals shape the developmental processes in the foetal brain and placenta.Therefore, we hypothesize that green space can modify epigenetic processes of cognition-related pathways in placental tissue, such as DNA-methylation of the serotonin receptor HTR2A. HTR2A-methylation was determined within 327 placentas from the ENVIRONAGE (ENVIRonmental influence ON early AGEing) birth cohort using bisulphite-PCR-pyrosequencing. Total green space exposure was calculated using high-resolution land cover data derived from the Green Map of Flanders in seven buffers (50 m-3 km) and stratified into low (<3 m) and high (≥3 m) vegetation. Residential nature was calculated using the Land use Map of Flanders. We performed multivariate regression models adjusted for several a priori chosen covariables. For an IQR increment in total green space within a 1,000 m, 2,000 m and 3,000 m buffer the methylation of HTR2A increased with 1.47% (95%CI:0.17;2.78), 1.52% (95%CI:0.21;2.83) and 1.42% (95%CI:0.15;2.69), respectively. Additionally,, we found 3.00% (95%CI:1.09;4.91) and 1.98% (95%CI:0.28;3.68) higher HTR2A-methylation when comparing residences with and without the presence of nature in a 50 m and 100 m buffer, respectively. The methylation status of HTR2A in placental tissue is positively associated with maternal green space exposure. Future research is needed to understand better how these epigenetic changes are related to functional modifications in the placenta and the consequent implications for foetal development.

Rush or relax: migration tactics of a nocturnal insectivore in response to ecological barriers.

During their annual migration, avian migrants alternate stopover periods, for refuelling, with migratory flight bouts. We hypothesise that European Nightjars (Caprimulgus europaeus) adapt their daily migration tactics in association with biomes. We tracked the autumn migration of 24 European Nightjars, from breeding populations in Mongolia, Belgium and UK, using GPS-loggers and multi-sensor data loggers. We quantified crepuscular and nocturnal migration and foraging probabilities, as well as daily travel speed and flight altitude during active migration in response to biomes. Nightjars adopt a rush tactic, reflected in high daily travel speed, flight altitude and high migration probabilities at dusk and at night, when travelling through ecological barriers. Migration is slower in semi-open, hospitable biomes. This is reflected in high foraging probabilities at dusk, lower daily travel speed and lower migration probabilities at dusk. Our study shows how nightjars switch migration tactics during autumn migration, and suggest nightjars alternate between feeding and short migratory flight bouts within the same night when travelling through suitable habitats. How this may affect individuals' fuel stores and whether different biomes provide refuelling opportunities en route remains to be investigated, to understand how future land-use change may affect migration patterns and survival probabilities.

Mobilisation capacity for agri-environmental management.

The integration of environmental concerns into agricultural policies - through agri-environment measures (AEM) - has seen a fast development across Europe. This paper conceives AEM as an evolving instrument, a product that takes shape, gets diffused and taken up in, by and through networks of relations. Success then depends on the mobilisation or active participation of all those who may support and develop it. Using the examples of the Flanders' and Walloon regions of Belgium, the paper sets out to examine the mechanisms by which mobilisation for agri-environmental management develops, and by doing so, to gain a better understanding of mobilisation capacity as a concept to be used for evaluating policy implementation in this area. The study follows AEM along the various trajectories of implementation (design, distribution, application). The findings reveal how mobilisation capacity is gradually built-up by the interplay between AEM and the networks it connects to. The case illustrates well how such interactions occur all the way from administration offices to farmers' fields, and that their nature can be very different (e.g., formal and informal, durable and short-lived, expected and unexpected). It is concluded that in evaluating actor-networks, one should look at them in an open and fluid manner, that is, not to privilege any particular configuration or form of attachment over the other, not take intentions and objectives as a starting point but instead address the opportunities for synergies, and be aware that any network built around the instrument may change its content and the way it functions.

Exposure to green space and pollen allergy symptom severity: A case-crossover study in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of pollen allergy has increased due to urbanization, climate change and air pollution. The effects of green space and air pollution on respiratory health of pollen allergy patients are complex and best studied in spatio-temporal detail. METHODS: We tracked 144 adults sensitized to Betulaceae pollen during the tree pollen season (January-May) of 2017 and 2018 and assessed their spatio-temporal exposure to green space, allergenic trees, air pollutants and birch pollen. Participants reported daily symptom severity scores. We extracted 404 case days with high symptom severity scores and matched these to 404 control days. The data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression with a 1:1 case-crossover design. RESULTS: Case days were associated with exposure to birch pollen concentration (100 grains/m3) [adjusted odds ratio 1.045 and 95% confidence interval (1.014-1.078)], O3 concentration (10 µg/m3) [1.504 (1.281-1.766)] and PM10 concentration (10 µg/m3) [1.255 (1.007-1.565)] on the day of the severe allergy event and with the cumulative exposure of one and two days before. Exposure to grass cover (10% area fraction) [0.655 (0.446-0.960)], forest cover (10% area fraction) [0.543 (0.303-0.973)] and density of Alnus (10%) [0.622 (0.411-0.942)] were protective for severe allergy, but only on the day of the severe allergy event. Increased densities of Betula trees (10%) were a risk factor [unadjusted OR: 2.014 (1.162-3.490)]. CONCLUSION: Exposure to green space may mitigate tree pollen allergy symptom severity but only when the density of allergenic trees is low. Air pollutants contribute to more severe allergy symptoms. Spatio-temporal tracking allows for a more realistic exposure assessment.

Residential green space and seasonal distress in a cohort of tree pollen allergy patients.

BACKGROUND: Residential green space may improve human health, for example by promoting physical activity and by reducing stress. Conversely, residential green space may increase stress by emitting aeroallergens and exacerbating allergic disease. Here we examine impacts of exposure to residential green space on distress in the susceptible subpopulation of adults sensitized to tree pollen allergens. METHODS: In a panel study of 88 tree pollen allergy patients we analyzed self-reported mental health (GHQ-12), perceived presence of allergenic trees (hazel, alder, birch) near the residence and residential green space area within 1 km distance [high (≥3 m) and low (<3 m) green]. Results were adjusted for patients' background data (gender, age, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, commuting distance, education level, allergy medication use and chronic respiratory problems) and compared with distress in the general population (N = 2467). RESULTS: Short-term distress [mean GHQ-12 score 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.5-2.7)] was higher in the study population than in the general population [1.5 (1.4-1.7)]. Residential green space had protective effects against short-term distress [high green, per combined surface area of 10 ha: adjusted odds ratio OR = 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90-0.99); low green, per 10 ha: OR = 0.85 (0.78-0.93)]. However, distress was higher in patients who reported perceived presence of allergenic trees near their residence [present vs. absent: OR = 2.04 (1.36-3.07)]. CONCLUSIONS: Perceived presence of allergenic tree species in the neighbourhood of the residence of tree pollen allergy patients modulates the protective effect of residential green space against distress during the airborne tree pollen season.

Making space for experiential knowledge in climate change adaptation? Insights from municipal planning officers in Bohol, Philippines.

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has multiple local effects on people and places. Yet, climate change knowledge often travels uncomfortably across scales and needs constant re-interpretation as it is applied in different spatial contexts. This requires the examination of how scientific and local knowledge about climate change travel across social systems and shape local meanings and adaptive actions on climate change. Using an interpretive social science analysis of environmental change, this study investigates development planning as a key boundary object for handling both kinds of knowledge and explores experiential knowledge of climate change held by planning officers from the coastal landscape of the island province of Bohol, Philippines. Drawing upon face-to-face interviews, mental maps, and planning documents review, main results first characterise three experiential ways of knowing about climate change across spaces of lived experiences and spaces of maps and plans. Then, we show how planners engage with climate change adaptation by combining national, techno-scientific and local, on-the-ground ways of knowing, offering a venue in which experiential knowledge on climate change is used for building planning significance and making more grounded accounts of adaptation moving forward in planning policy and practice.