PhenoCaB: a new phenological model based on carbon balance in boreal conifers.

Traditional phenological models use chilling and thermal forcing (temperature sum or degree-days) to predict budbreak. Because of the heightening impact of climate and other related biotic or abiotic stressors, a model with greater biological support is needed to better predict budbreak. Here, we present an original mechanistic model based on the physiological processes taking place before and during budbreak of conifers. As a general principle, we assume that phenology is driven by the carbon status of the plant, which is closely related to environmental variables and the annual cycle of dormancy-activity. The carbon balance of a branch was modelled from autumn to winter with cold acclimation and dormancy and from winter to spring when deacclimation and growth resumption occur. After being calibrated in a field experiment, the model was validated across a large area (> 34 000 km2 ), covering multiple conifers stands in Québec (Canada) and across heated plots for the SPRUCE experiment in Minnesota (USA). The model accurately predicted the observed dates of budbreak in both Québec (±3.98 d) and Minnesota (±7.98 d). The site-independent calibration provides interesting insights on the physiological mechanisms underlying the dynamics of dormancy break and the resumption of vegetative growth in spring.

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers.

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.

Photoperiod and temperature as dominant environmental drivers triggering secondary growth resumption in Northern Hemisphere conifers.

Wood formation consumes around 15% of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions per year and plays a critical role in long-term sequestration of carbon on Earth. However, the exogenous factors driving wood formation onset and the underlying cellular mechanisms are still poorly understood and quantified, and this hampers an effective assessment of terrestrial forest productivity and carbon budget under global warming. Here, we used an extensive collection of unique datasets of weekly xylem tissue formation (wood formation) from 21 coniferous species across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23 to 67°N) to present a quantitative demonstration that the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers is primarily driven by photoperiod and mean annual temperature (MAT), and only secondarily by spring forcing, winter chilling, and moisture availability. Photoperiod interacts with MAT and plays the dominant role in regulating the onset of secondary meristem growth, contrary to its as-yet-unquantified role in affecting the springtime phenology of primary meristems. The unique relationships between exogenous factors and wood formation could help to predict how forest ecosystems respond and adapt to climate warming and could provide a better understanding of the feedback occurring between vegetation and climate that is mediated by phenology. Our study quantifies the role of major environmental drivers for incorporation into state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs), thereby providing an improved assessment of long-term and high-resolution observations of biogeochemical cycles across terrestrial biomes.

The early bud gets the cold: Diverging spring phenology drives exposure to late frost in a Picea mariana [(Mill.) BSP] common garden.

Under climate change, the increasing occurrence of late frost combined with advancing spring phenology can increase the risk of frost damage in trees. In this study, we tested the link between intra-specific variability in bud phenology and frost exposure and damages. We analysed the effects of the 2021 late frost event in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) common garden in Québec, Canada. We hypothesised that the timing of budbreak drives the exposure of vulnerable tissues and explains differences in frost damage. Budbreak was monitored from 2015 to 2021 in 371 trees from five provenances originating between 48° and 53° N and planted in a common garden at 48° N. Frost damages were assessed on the same trees through the proportion of damaged buds per tree and related to the phenological phases by ordinal regressions. After an unusually warm spring, minimum temperatures fell to -1.9°C on May 28 and 29, 2021. At this moment, trees from the northern provenances were more advanced in their phenology and showed more frost damage. Provenances with earlier budbreak had a higher probability of damage occurrence according to ordinal regression. Our study highlights the importance of intra-specific variability of phenological traits on the risk of frost exposure. We provide evidence that the timings of bud phenology affect sensitivity to frost, leading to damages at temperatures of -1.9°C. Under the same conditions, the earlier growth reactivation observed in the northern provenances increases the risks of late frost damage on the developing buds.

Environmental and developmental factors driving xylem anatomy and micro-density in black spruce.

Wood density is the product of carbon allocation for structural growth and reflects the trade-off between mechanical support and water conductivity. We tested a conceptual framework based on the assumption that micro-density depends on direct and indirect relationships with endogenous and exogenous factors. The dynamics of wood formation, including timings and rates of cell division, cell enlargement, and secondary wall deposition, were assessed from microcores collected weekly between 2002 and 2016 from five black spruce stands located along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec, Canada. Cell anatomy and micro-density were recorded by anatomical analyses and X-ray measurements. Our structural equation model explained 80% of micro-density variation within the tree-ring with direct effects of wall thickness (σ = 0.61), cell diameter (σ = -0.51), and photoperiod (σ = -0.26). Wood formation dynamics had an indirect effect on micro-density. Micro-density increased under longer periods of cell-wall deposition and shorter durations of enlargement. Our results fill a critical gap in understanding the relationships underlying micro-density variation in conifers. We demonstrated that short-term responses to environmental variations could be overridden by plastic responses that modulate cell differentiation. Our results point to wood formation dynamics as a reliable predictor of carbon allocation in trees.

Warming counteracts defoliation-induced mismatch by increasing herbivore-plant phenological synchrony.

Climate change is altering phenology; however, the magnitude of this change varies among taxa. Compared with phenological mismatch between plants and herbivores, synchronization due to climate has been less explored, despite its potential implications for trophic interactions. The earlier budburst induced by defoliation is a phenological strategy for plants against herbivores. Here, we tested whether warming can counteract defoliation-induced mismatch by increasing herbivore-plant phenological synchrony. We compared the larval phenology of spruce budworm and budburst in balsam fir, black spruce, and white spruce saplings subjected to defoliation in a controlled environment at temperatures of 12, 17, and 22°C. Budburst in defoliated saplings occurred 6-24 days earlier than in the controls, thus mismatching needle development from larval feeding. This mismatch decreased to only 3-7 days, however, when temperatures warmed by 5 and 10°C, leading to a resynchronization of the host with spruce budworm larvae. The increasing synchrony under warming counteracts the defoliation-induced mismatch, disrupting trophic interactions and energy flow between forest ecosystem and insect populations. Our results suggest that the predicted warming may improve food quality and provide better growth conditions for larval development, thus promoting longer or more intense insect outbreaks in the future.

How plant allometry influences bud phenology and fruit yield in two Vaccinium species.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Understanding how plant allometry, plant architecture and phenology contribute to fruit production can identify those plant traits that maximize fruit yield. In this study, we compared these variables and fruit yield for two shrub species, Vaccinium angustifolium and Vaccinium myrtilloides, to test the hypothesis that phenology is linked to the plants' allometric traits, which are predictors of fruit production. METHODS: We measured leaf and flower phenology and the above-ground biomass of both Vaccinium species in a commercial wild lowbush blueberry field (Quebec, Canada) over a 2-year crop cycle; 1 year of pruning followed by 1 year of harvest. Leaf and flower phenology were measured, and the allometric traits of shoots and buds were monitored over the crop cycle. We hand-collected the fruits of each plant to determine fruit attributes and biomass. KEY RESULTS: During the harvesting year, the leafing and flowering of V. angustifolium occurred earlier than that of V. myrtilloides. This difference was related to the allometric characteristics of the buds due to differences in carbon partitioning by the plants during the pruning year. Through structural equation modelling, we identified that the earlier leafing in V. angustifolium was related to a lower leaf bud number, while earlier flowering was linked to a lower number of flowers per bud. Despite differences in reproductive allometric traits, vegetative biomass still determined reproductive biomass in a log-log scale model. CONCLUSIONS: Growing buds are competing sinks for non-structural carbohydrates. Their differences in both number and characteristics (e.g. number of flowers per bud) influence levels of fruit production and explain some of the phenological differences observed between the two Vaccinium species. For similar above-ground biomass, both Vaccinium species had similar reproductive outputs in terms of fruit biomass, despite differences in reproductive traits such as fruit size and number.

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers.

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat-sum models and chilling-influenced heat-sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site-years over Europe and Canada. The chilling-influenced heat-sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7-day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling-influenced heat-sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter-spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.

Is size an issue of time? Relationship between the duration of xylem development and cell traits.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Secondary growth is a process related to the formation of new cells that increase in size and wall thickness during xylogenesis. Temporal dynamics of wood formation influence cell traits, in turn affecting cell patterns across the tree ring. We verified the hypothesis that cell diameter and cell wall thickness are positively correlated with the duration of their differentiation phases. METHODS: Histological sections were produced by microcores to assess the periods of cell differentiation in black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.]. Samples were collected weekly between 2002 and 2016 from a total of 50 trees in five sites along a latitudinal gradient in Quebec (Canada). The intra-annual temporal dynamics of cell differentiation were estimated at a daily scale, and the relationships between cell traits and duration of differentiation were fitted using a modified von Bertalanffy growth equation. KEY RESULTS: At all sites, larger cell diameters and cell wall thicknesses were observed in cells that experienced a longer period of differentiation. The relationship was a non-linear, decreasing trend that occasionally resulted in a clear asymptote. Overall, secondary wall deposition lasted longer than cell enlargement. Earlywood cells underwent an enlargement phase that lasted for 12 d on average, while secondary wall thickness lasted 15 d. Enlargement in latewood cells averaged 7 d and secondary wall deposition occurred over an average of 27 d. CONCLUSIONS: Cell size across the tree ring is closely connected to the temporal dynamics of cell formation. Similar relationships were observed among the five study sites, indicating shared xylem formation dynamics across the entire latitudinal distribution of the species.The duration of cell differentiation is a key factor involved in cell growth and wall thickening of xylem, thereby determining the spatial variation of cell traits across the tree ring.

The Contribution of Carbon and Water in Modulating Wood Formation in Black Spruce Saplings.

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) play a crucial role in xylem formation and represent, with water, the main constraint to plant growth. We assessed the relationships between xylogenesis and NSCs in order to (1) verify the variance explained by NSCs and (2) determine the influence of intrinsic (tissue supplying carbon) and extrinsic (water availability and temperature) factors. During 2 years, wood formation was monitored in saplings of black spruce (Picea mariana) subjected to a dry period of about 1 month in June and exposed to different temperature treatments in a greenhouse. In parallel, NSC concentrations were determined by extracting the sugar compounds from two tissues (cambium and inner xylem), both potentially supplying carbon for wood formation. A mixed-effect model was used to assess and quantify the potential relationships. Total xylem cells, illustrating meristematic activity, were modeled as a function of water, sucrose, and d-pinitol (conditional r(2) of 0.79). Water availability was ranked as the most important factor explaining total xylem cell production, while the contribution of carbon was lower. Cambium stopped dividing under water deficit, probably to limit the number of cells remaining in differentiation without an adequate amount of water. By contrast, carbon factors were ranked as most important in explaining the variation in living cells (conditional r(2) of 0.49), highlighting the functional needs during xylem development, followed by the tissue supplying the NSCs (cambium) and water availability. This study precisely demonstrates the role of carbon and water in structural growth expressed as meristematic activity and tissue formation.

Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation.

Because of global warming, high-latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long-distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night-time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub-processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night-time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree-rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree-ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions.

Pattern of xylem phenology in conifers of cold ecosystems at the Northern Hemisphere.

The interaction between xylem phenology and climate assesses forest growth and productivity and carbon storage across biomes under changing environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that patterns of wood formation are maintained unaltered despite the temperature changes across cold ecosystems. Wood microcores were collected weekly or biweekly throughout the growing season for periods varying between 1 and 13 years during 1998-2014 and cut in transverse sections for assessing the onset and ending of the phases of xylem differentiation. The data set represented 1321 trees belonging to 10 conifer species from 39 sites in the Northern Hemisphere and covering an interval of mean annual temperature exceeding 14 K. The phenological events and mean annual temperature of the sites were related linearly, with spring and autumnal events being separated by constant intervals across the range of temperature analysed. At increasing temperature, first enlarging, wall-thickening and mature tracheids appeared earlier, and last enlarging and wall-thickening tracheids occurred later. Overall, the period of wood formation lengthened linearly with the mean annual temperature, from 83.7 days at -2 °C to 178.1 days at 12 °C, at a rate of 6.5 days °C-1 . April-May temperatures produced the best models predicting the dates of wood formation. Our findings demonstrated the uniformity of the process of wood formation and the importance of the environmental conditions occurring at the time of growth resumption. Under warming scenarios, the period of wood formation might lengthen synchronously in the cold biomes of the Northern Hemisphere.

How do drought and warming influence survival and wood traits of Picea mariana saplings?

Warming and drought will occur with increased frequency and intensity at high latitudes in the future. How heat and water stress can influence tree mortality is incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate how carbon resources, stem hydraulics, and wood anatomy and density determine the ability of black spruce saplings to survive daytime or night-time warming (+ 6 °C in comparison with control) in combination with a drought period. Plant water relations, the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates and starch, mortality rate, and wood anatomy and density of saplings were monitored. Warming, in conjunction with 25 d of water deficit, increased sapling mortality (10% and 20% in night-time and daytime warming, respectively) compared with the control conditions (0.8%). Drought substantially decreased gas exchange, and also pre-dawn and mid-day leaf water potential to values close to -3MPa which probably induced xylem embolism (xylem air entry point, P12, being on average around -3MPa for this species). In addition, the recovery of gas exchange never reached the initial pre-stress levels, suggesting a possible loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity associated with cavitation. Consequently, mortality may be due to xylem hydraulic failure. Warmer temperatures limited the replenishment of starch reserves after their seasonal minimum. Lighter wood was formed during the drought period, reflecting a lower carbon allocation to cell wall formation, preventing the adaptation of the hydraulic system to drought. Saplings of black spruce experienced difficulty in adapting under climate change conditions, which might compromise their survival in the future.

Xylem formation can be modeled statistically as a function of primary growth and cambium activity.

Primary (budburst, foliage and shoot) growth and secondary (cambium and xylem) growth of plants play a vital role in sequestering atmospheric carbon. However, their potential relationships have never been mathematically quantified and the underlying physiological mechanisms are unclear. We monitored primary and secondary growth in Picea mariana and Abies balsamea on a weekly basis from 2010 to 2013 at four sites over an altitudinal gradient (25-900 m) in the eastern Canadian boreal forest. We determined the timings of onset and termination through the fitted functions and their first derivative. We quantified the potential relationships between primary growth and secondary growth using the mixed-effects model. We found that xylem formation of boreal conifers can be modeled as a function of cambium activity, bud phenology, and shoot and needle growth, as well as species- and site-specific factors. Our model reveals that there may be an optimal mechanism to simultaneously allocate the photosynthetic products and stored nonstructural carbon to growth of different organs at different times in the growing season. This mathematical link can bridge phenological modeling, forest ecosystem productivity and carbon cycle modeling, which will certainly contribute to an improved prediction of ecosystem productivity and carbon equilibrium.

Impact of warming and drought on carbon balance related to wood formation in black spruce.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Wood formation in trees represents a carbon sink that can be modified in the case of stress. The way carbon metabolism constrains growth during stress periods (high temperature and water deficit) is now under debate. In this study, the amounts of non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) for xylogenesis in black spruce, Picea mariana, saplings were assessed under high temperature and drought in order to determine the role of sugar mobilization for osmotic purposes and its consequences for secondary growth. METHODS: Four-year-old saplings of black spruce in a greenhouse were subjected to different thermal conditions with respect to the outside air temperature (T0) in 2010 (2 and 5 °C higher than T0) and 2011 (6 °C warmer than T0 during the day or night) with a dry period of about 1 month in June of each year. Wood formation together with starch, NSCs and leaf parameters (water potential and photosynthesis) were monitored from May to September. KEY RESULTS: With the exception of raffinose, the amounts of soluble sugars were not modified in the cambium even if gas exchange and photosynthesis were greatly reduced during drought. Raffinose increased more than pinitol under a pre-dawn water potential of less than -1 Mpa, presumably because this compound is better suited than polyol for replacing water and capturing free radicals, and its degradation into simple sugar is easier. Warming decreased the starch storage in the xylem as well the available hexose pool in the cambium and the xylem, probably because of an increase in respiration. CONCLUSIONS: Radial stem growth was reduced during drought due to the mobilization of NSCs for osmotic purposes and due to the lack of cell turgor. Thus plant water status during wood formation can influence the NSCs available for growth in the cambium and xylem.

High preseason temperature variability drives convergence of xylem phenology in the Northern Hemisphere conifers.

Wood growth is key to understanding the feedback of forest ecosystems to the ongoing climate warming. An increase in spatial synchrony (i.e., coincident changes in distant populations) of spring phenology is one of the most prominent climate responses of forest trees. However, whether temperature variability contributes to an increase in the spatial synchrony of spring phenology and its underlying mechanisms remains largely unknown. Here, we analyzed an extensive dataset of xylem phenology observations of 20 conifer species from 75 sites over the Northern Hemisphere. Along the gradient of increase in temperature variability in the 75 sites, we observed a convergence in the onset of cell enlargement roughly toward the 5th of June, with a convergence in the onset of cell wall thickening toward the summer solstice. The increase in rainfall since the 5th of June is favorable for cell division and expansion, and as the most hours of sunlight are received around the summer solstice, it allows the optimization of carbon assimilation for cell wall thickening. Hence, the convergences can be considered as the result of matching xylem phenological activities to favorable conditions in regions with high temperature variability. Yet, forest trees relying on such consistent seasonal cues for xylem growth could constrain their ability to respond to climate warming, with consequences for the potential growing season length and, ultimately, forest productivity and survival in the future.

Partial asynchrony of coniferous forest carbon sources and sinks at the intra-annual time scale.

As major terrestrial carbon sinks, forests play an important role in mitigating climate change. The relationship between the seasonal uptake of carbon and its allocation to woody biomass remains poorly understood, leaving a significant gap in our capacity to predict carbon sequestration by forests. Here, we compare the intra-annual dynamics of carbon fluxes and wood formation across the Northern hemisphere, from carbon assimilation and the formation of non-structural carbon compounds to their incorporation in woody tissues. We show temporally coupled seasonal peaks of carbon assimilation (GPP) and wood cell differentiation, while the two processes are substantially decoupled during off-peak periods. Peaks of cambial activity occur substantially earlier compared to GPP, suggesting the buffer role of non-structural carbohydrates between the processes of carbon assimilation and allocation to wood. Our findings suggest that high-resolution seasonal data of ecosystem carbon fluxes, wood formation and the associated physiological processes may reduce uncertainties in carbon source-sink relationships at different spatial scales, from stand to ecosystem levels.

A meta-analysis of cambium phenology and growth: linear and non-linear patterns in conifers of the northern hemisphere.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Ongoing global warming has been implicated in shifting phenological patterns such as the timing and duration of the growing season across a wide variety of ecosystems. Linear models are routinely used to extrapolate these observed shifts in phenology into the future and to estimate changes in associated ecosystem properties such as net primary productivity. Yet, in nature, linear relationships may be special cases. Biological processes frequently follow more complex, non-linear patterns according to limiting factors that generate shifts and discontinuities, or contain thresholds beyond which responses change abruptly. This study investigates to what extent cambium phenology is associated with xylem growth and differentiation across conifer species of the northern hemisphere. METHODS: Xylem cell production is compared with the periods of cambial activity and cell differentiation assessed on a weekly time scale on histological sections of cambium and wood tissue collected from the stems of nine species in Canada and Europe over 1-9 years per site from 1998 to 2011. KEY RESULTS: The dynamics of xylogenesis were surprisingly homogeneous among conifer species, although dispersions from the average were obviously observed. Within the range analysed, the relationships between the phenological timings were linear, with several slopes showing values close to or not statistically different from 1. The relationships between the phenological timings and cell production were distinctly non-linear, and involved an exponential pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The trees adjust their phenological timings according to linear patterns. Thus, shifts of one phenological phase are associated with synchronous and comparable shifts of the successive phases. However, small increases in the duration of xylogenesis could correspond to a substantial increase in cell production. The findings suggest that the length of the growing season and the resulting amount of growth could respond differently to changes in environmental conditions.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis.

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher's C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation.