How much could anemia-related interventions reduce the HIV disparity in adverse birth outcomes?

Women and other people of childbearing potential living with HIV (WLHIV) have a higher risk of adverse birth outcomes than those without HIV (WWHIV). A higher risk of anemia in WLHIV could partially explain this disparity. Using a birth outcomes surveillance study in Botswana, we emulated target trials corresponding to currently available or feasible interventions on anemia. The first target trial evaluated two interventions: initiate multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS), and MMS or iron and folic acid supplementation by 24 weeks gestation. The remaining target trials evaluated the interventions: eliminate anemia before pregnancy; and jointly eliminate anemia before pregnancy and initiate MMS. We estimated the observed disparity in adverse birth outcomes between WLHIV and WWHIV and compared the observed disparity measure (ODM) to the counterfactual disparity measure (CDM) under each intervention. Of 137,499 individuals (22% WLHIV), the observed risk of any adverse birth outcome was 26.0% in WWHIV and 34.5% in WLHIV (ODM, 8.5% [95% CI, 7.9-9.1%]). CDMs (95% CIs) ranged from 6.6% (4.8-8.4%) for the intervention to eliminate anemia and initiate MMS to 8.4% (7.7-9.1%) for the intervention to eliminate anemia only. Preventing anemia and expanding MMS may reduce HIV disparities in birth outcomes, but interventions with greater impact should be identified.

Emulating Target Trials to Avoid Immortal Time Bias - An Application to Antibiotic Initiation and Preterm Delivery.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials in pregnancy are extremely challenging, and observational studies are often the only option to evaluate medication safety during pregnancy. However, such studies are often susceptible to immortal time bias if treatment initiation occurs after time zero of follow-up. We describe how emulating a sequence of target trials avoids immortal time bias and apply the approach to estimate the safety of antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks gestation on preterm delivery. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study captured birth outcomes at hospitals throughout Botswana from 2014 to 2021. We emulated 13 sequential target trials of antibiotic initiation versus no initiation among individuals presenting to care <24 weeks, one for each week from 24 to 37 weeks. For each trial, eligible individuals had not previously initiated antibiotics. We also conducted an analysis susceptible to immortal time bias by defining time zero as 24 weeks and exposure as antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery. RESULTS: Of 111,403 eligible individuals, 17,009 (15.3%) initiated antibiotics between 24 and 37 weeks. In the sequence of target trials, RRs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.04 (0.90, 1.19) to 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) (pooled RR: 1.11 [1.06, 1.15]). In the analysis susceptible to immortal time bias, the RR was 0.90 (0.86, 0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Defining exposure as antibiotic initiation at any time during follow-up after time zero resulted in substantial immortal time bias, making antibiotics appear protective against preterm delivery. Conducting a sequence of target trials can avoid immortal time bias in pregnancy studies.

Neural-Tube Defects and Antiretroviral Treatment Regimens in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: A preliminary safety signal for neural-tube defects was previously reported in association with dolutegravir exposure from the time of conception, which has affected choices of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of reproductive potential. The signal can now be evaluated with data from follow-up of additional pregnancies. METHODS: We conducted birth-outcomes surveillance at hospitals throughout Botswana, expanding from 8 to 18 sites in 2018. Trained midwives performed surface examinations of all live-born and stillborn infants. Research assistants photographed abnormalities after maternal consent was obtained. The prevalence of neural-tube defects and major external structural defects according to maternal HIV infection and ART exposure status was determined. In the primary analyses, we used the Newcombe method to evaluate differences in prevalence with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: From August 2014 through March 2019, surveillance captured 119,477 deliveries; 119,033 (99.6%) had an infant surface examination that could be evaluated, and 98 neural-tube defects were identified (0.08% of deliveries). Among 1683 deliveries in which the mother was taking dolutegravir at conception, 5 neural-tube defects were found (0.30% of deliveries); the defects included two instances of myelomeningocele, one of anencephaly, one of encephalocele, and one of iniencephaly. In comparison, 15 neural-tube defects were found among 14,792 deliveries (0.10%) in which the mother was taking any non-dolutegravir ART at conception, 3 among 7959 (0.04%) in which the mother was taking efavirenz at conception, 1 among 3840 (0.03%) in which the mother started dolutegravir treatment during pregnancy, and 70 among 89,372 (0.08%) in HIV-uninfected mothers. The prevalence of neural-tube defects was higher in association with dolutegravir treatment at conception than with non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.20 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.01 to 0.59) or with other types of ART exposure. Major external structural defects were found in 0.95% of deliveries among women exposed to dolutegravir at conception and 0.68% of those among women exposed to non-dolutegravir ART at conception (difference, 0.27 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of neural-tube defects was slightly higher in association with dolutegravir exposure at conception than with other types of ART exposure at conception (3 per 1000 deliveries vs. 1 per 1000 deliveries). (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Impact of prophylactic antimalarials in pregnant women living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus on birth outcomes in Botswana.

OBJECTIVES: Until late 2015, Botswana recommended preventive treatment for pregnant women in malarial regions with chloroquine and proguanil (CP). The guideline change provided an opportunity to evaluate CP and adverse birth outcomes. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study performed birth outcomes surveillance at large delivery centres throughout Botswana. We evaluated adverse birth outcomes from 2015 to 2017 at three hospitals where 93% of CP use was recorded. Outcomes included neonatal death (NND), small for gestational age (SGA), very SGA, stillbirth (SB), preterm delivery (PTD) and very PTD. Logistic regression analysis (unadjusted and adjusted) was conducted for each adverse birth outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, 5883 (26%) of 23,033 deliveries were exposed to CP, with the majority (65%) in the most malaria-endemic region. At this site, there was a trend or an association between CP use and reduction of three adverse birth outcomes: PTD (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.76-0.96), vPTD (aOR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-1.01) and NND (aOR 0.65, 95% CI 0.42-1.00). However, at the least malaria-endemic site, the association was in the opposite direction for SB (aOR 1.54, 95% CI 1.08-2.22), SGA (aOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.44) and vSGA (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.77). The association between CP and reduced PTD was present among women without HIV (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.67-0.89) but not among women with HIV (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.78-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Antimalarial prophylaxis was associated with improved birth outcomes in the most malaria-endemic region of Botswana, but not elsewhere. This finding supports current WHO guidance to use prophylaxis strategies among pregnant women in highly malaria-endemic regions. Further studies of the risks and benefits of specific antimalarial regimens in pregnancy are warranted, particularly in areas with lower incidence of malaria.

High risk of adverse birth outcomes among adolescents living with HIV in Botswana compared to adult women living with HIV and adolescents without HIV.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent girls are three times more likely to be living with HIV than boys of the same age. Prior studies have found associations between adolescent pregnancies and increased maternal morbidity and infant mortality, but few studies have assessed the impact of HIV infection on maternal and infant outcomes in adolescents. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study abstracts maternal and infant data from obstetric records in government maternity wards in Botswana. We assessed maternal complications and adverse birth outcomes for all singleton pregnancies from August 2014 to August 2020 at eighteen Tsepamo sites among adolescents (defined as 10-19 years of age) and adults (defined as 20-35 years of age), by HIV status. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression using a complete case analysis method were used to evaluate differences in outcomes. RESULTS: This analysis included 142,258 singleton births, 21,133 (14.9%) to adolescents and 121,125 (85.1%) to adults. The proportion of adults living with HIV (N = 22,114, 22.5%) was higher than adolescents (N = 1593, 7.6%). The proportion of most adverse birth outcomes was higher in adolescents. Among adolescents, those with HIV had increased likelihoods of anemia (aOR = 1.89, 95%CI 1.66, 2.15) and cesarean sections (aOR = 1.49, 95%CI 1.3,1.72), and infants with preterm birth (aOR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.0, 1.32), very preterm birth (aOR = 1.35, 95%CI 1.0,1.8), small for gestational age (aOR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.20,1.58), and very small for gestational age (aOR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.20, 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent pregnancy and adolescent HIV infection remain high in Botswana. Adolescents have higher risk of adverse maternal and infant birth outcomes than adults, with the worst outcomes among adolescents living with HIV. Linking HIV prevention and family planning strategies for this age group may help minimize the number of infants with poor birth outcomes among this already vulnerable population.

Modest reduction in adverse birth outcomes following the COVID-19 lockdown.

BACKGROUND: Widespread lockdowns imposed during the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis may impact birth outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the association between the COVID-19 lockdown and the risk of adverse birth outcomes in Botswana. STUDY DESIGN: In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis, Botswana enforced a lockdown that restricted movement within the country. We used data from an ongoing nationwide birth outcomes surveillance study to evaluate adverse outcomes (stillbirth, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) and severe adverse outcomes (stillbirth, very preterm birth, very-small-for-gestational-age fetuses, and neonatal death) recorded prelockdown (January 1, 2020-April 2, 2020), during lockdown (April 3, 2020-May 7, 2020), and postlockdown (May 8, 2020-July 20, 2020). Using difference-in-differences analyses, we compared the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to lockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019 with the net change in each outcome from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020 relative to the same 2 periods in 2017-2019. RESULTS: In this study, 68,448 women delivered a singleton infant in 2017-2020 between January 1 and July 20 and were included in our analysis (mean [interquartile range] age of mothers, 26 [22-32] years). Across the included calendar years and periods, the risk of any adverse outcome ranged from 27.92% to 31.70%, and the risk of any severe adverse outcome ranged from 8.40% to 11.38%. The lockdown period was associated with a 0.81 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.95% to 1.30%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (3% relative reduction) and a 0.02 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -0.79% to 0.75%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (0% relative reduction). The postlockdown period was associated with a 1.72 percentage point reduction (95% confidence, -3.42% to 0.02%) in the risk of any adverse outcome (5% relative reduction) and a 1.62 percentage point reduction (95% confidence interval, -2.69% to -0.55%) in the risk of any severe adverse outcome (14% relative reduction). Reductions in adverse outcomes were largest among women with human immunodeficiency virus and among women delivering at urban delivery sites, driven primarily by reductions in preterm birth and small-for-gestational-age fetuses. CONCLUSION: Adverse birth outcomes decreased from the prelockdown to postlockdown periods in 2020, relative to the change during the same periods in 2017-2019. Our findings may provide insights into associations between mobility and birth outcomes in Botswana and other low- and middle-income countries.

Methodological Challenges When Studying Distance to Care as an Exposure in Health Research.

Distance to care is a common exposure and proposed instrumental variable in health research, but it is vulnerable to violations of fundamental identifiability conditions for causal inference. We used data collected from the Botswana Birth Outcomes Surveillance study between 2014 and 2016 to outline 4 challenges and potential biases when using distance to care as an exposure and as a proposed instrument: selection bias, unmeasured confounding, lack of sufficiently well-defined interventions, and measurement error. We describe how these issues can arise, and we propose sensitivity analyses for estimating the degree of bias.

Unintended pregnancy, contraceptive use, and childbearing desires among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women in Botswana: across-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of knowledge of HIV serostatus on pregnancy intention and contraceptive use in high-HIV-burden southern African settings in the era of widespread antiretroviral treatment availability. METHODS: We analyzed interview data collected among 473 HIV-uninfected and 468 HIV-infected pregnant and recently postpartum women at two sites in southern Botswana. Participants were interviewed about their knowledge of their HIV status prior to pregnancy, intendedness of the pregnancy, contraceptive use, and future childbearing desires. RESULTS: The median age of the 941 women was 27 years, median lifetime pregnancies was 2, and 416 (44%) of pregnancies were unintended. Among women reporting unintended pregnancy, 36% were not using a contraceptive method prior to conception. Among contraception users, 81% used condoms, 13% oral contraceptives and 5% an injectable contraceptive. In univariable analysis, women with unintended pregnancy had a higher number of previous pregnancies (P = <0.0001), were less educated (P = 0.0002), and less likely to be married or living with a partner (P < 0.0001). Thirty-percent reported knowing that they were HIV-infected, 48% reported knowing they were HIV-uninfected, and 22% reported not knowing their HIV status prior to conception. In multivariable analysis, women who did not know their HIV status pre-conception were more likely to report their pregnancy as unintended compared to women who knew that they were HIV-uninfected (aOR = 1.7; 95%CI: 1.2-2.5). After controlling for other factors, unintended pregnancy was not associated with knowing one's HIV positive status prior to conception (compared with knowing one's negative HIV status prior to conception). Among women with unintended pregnancy, there was no association between knowing their HIV status and contraceptive use prior to pregnancy in adjusted analyses. Sixty-one percent of women reported not wanting any more children after this pregnancy, with HIV-infected women significantly more likely to report not wanting any more children compared to HIV-uninfected women (aOR = 3.9; 95%CI: 2.6-5.8). CONCLUSIONS: The high rates of reported unintended pregnancy and contraceptive failure/misuse underscore an urgent need for better access to effective contraceptive methods for HIV-uninfected and HIV -infected women in Botswana. Lower socioeconomic status and lack of pre-conception HIV testing may indicate higher risk for unintended pregnancy in this setting.

Incident HIV acquisition among pregnant women in Botswana: findings from the Tsepamo birth outcomes surveillance study.

INTRODUCTION: In Botswana, where almost all pregnant women known to have HIV receive antiretroviral therapy, a large proportion of vertical HIV transmission may occur among women with incident undiagnosed HIV infection during pregnancy. Botswana guidelines recommend repeat HIV testing every 3 months in pregnancy, with at least one test in the third trimester. We evaluated the rate of repeat HIV testing, calculated HIV incidence during pregnancy and estimated missed seroconversions. METHODS: In the Botswana Tsepamo Study, we abstracted HIV test dates and results from obstetric records of all women who delivered at maternity wards in 18 communities between 7th May 2017 and 20th August 2021. We defined seroconversion as an initial negative/indeterminate HIV test in pregnancy followed by a positive test during pregnancy/at delivery. The incidence rate (IR) of seroconversion was calculated among women with > = 2 known test dates. Missed seroconversions were estimated among women without a test in the third trimester by applying the IR to the time after the last HIV test until delivery. RESULTS: Among 103,529 women delivering in the study period testing negative at the first test and with known conception and HIV test dates, 29,085 (28%) were tested in one trimester of pregnancy, 73,156 (71%) were tested in ≥ 2 trimesters of pregnancy and 9628 (9%) had a test in all trimesters. A total of 78,162 (75%) women had a third-trimester test. There were 223 seroconversions (2.58/1000 pregnancies, 0.26%) among those with ≥ 2 known HIV test dates, yielding an IR of 0.69/100 person-years. Among 25,289 women who did not have a test in the third trimester, we estimate approximately 58 seroconversions may have been missed during pregnancy due to a lack of repeat testing. Factors associated with seroconversion during pregnancy included younger age, less education and not being married. CONCLUSIONS: More than two-thirds of women had repeat HIV testing in pregnancy and HIV incidence was low. However, an estimated 21% of seroconversions in pregnancy were likely missed due to a lack of re-testing. To reach the goal of zero new paediatric HIV infections, Botswana will need to intensify repeat HIV testing in the third trimester of pregnancy.

The impact of free antiretroviral therapy for pregnant non-citizens and their infants in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: In December 2019, the Botswana government expanded free antiretroviral therapy (ART) to include non-citizens. We evaluated the impact of this policy change on antenatal care (ANC), antiretroviral therapy coverage and adverse birth outcomes. METHODS: The Tsepamo Surveillance study collects data at up to 18 delivery sites in Botswana. We compared outcomes in citizens and non-citizens living with HIV before and after antiretroviral therapy expansion to non-citizens. Adverse birth outcomes included preterm delivery (PTD) <37 weeks, very preterm delivery (VPTD) <32 weeks, small for gestational age (SGA) <10th percentile, very small for gestational age (VSGA) <3rd percentile, stillbirth and neonatal death. Log-binomial regression models were constructed to generate risk ratios. RESULTS: From August 2014 to September 2021, 45,576 (96.5%) citizens and 1513 (3.2%) non-citizens living with HIV delivered; 954 (62.9%) non-citizen deliveries were before the antiretroviral therapy expansion, and 562 (37.1%) were after. Non-citizen ANC attendance among pregnant people living with HIV increased from 79.2% pre-expansion to 87.2% post-expansion (p<0.001), and became more similar to citizens (96.0% post-expansion). Non-citizens receiving any antenatal antiretroviral therapy increased from 65.5% pre-expansion to 89.9% post-expansion (p < 0.001), also more similar to citizens (97.2% post-expansion). Infants born to non-citizens with singleton gestations in the pre-expansion period had significantly greater risk of PTD (aRR = 1.28, 95% CI, 1.11, 1.46), VPTD (aRR = 1.89, 95% CI, 1.43, 2.44) and neonatal death (aRR = 1.69, 95% CI, 1.03, 2.60), but reduced SGA risk (aRR = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.62, 0.89) compared with citizens. Post-expansion, greater declines in most adverse outcomes were observed in non-citizens, with largely similar outcomes between non-citizens and citizens. Non-significant differences were observed for non-citizenship in PTD (aRR = 0.84, 95% CI, 0.66, 1.06), VPTD (aRR = 0.57, 95% CI, 0.28, 1.01), SGA (aRR = 0.91, 95% CI, 0.72, 1.13), VSGA (aRR = 0.87, 95% CI, 0.58, 1.25), stillbirth (aRR = 0.71, 95% CI, 0.35, 1.27) and neonatal death (aRR = 1.35, 95% CI, 0.60, 2.62). CONCLUSIONS: Following the expansion of free antiretroviral therapy to non-citizens, gaps narrowed in ANC and antiretroviral therapy use in pregnancy between citizens and non-citizens living with HIV. Disparities in adverse birth outcomes were no longer observed.

Association of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection With Maternal Mortality and Neonatal Birth Outcomes in Botswana by Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the combined association of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on adverse birth outcomes in an HIV-endemic region. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study abstracts data from antenatal and obstetric records in government maternity wards across Botswana. We assessed maternal mortality and adverse birth outcomes for all singleton pregnancies from September 2020 to mid-November 2021 at 13 Tsepamo sites among individuals with documented SARS-CoV-2 screening tests and known HIV status. RESULTS: Of 20,410 individuals who gave birth, 11,483 (56.3%) were screened for SARS-CoV-2 infection; 4.7% tested positive. People living with HIV were more likely to test positive (144/2,421, 5.9%) than those without HIV (392/9,030, 4.3%) (P=.001). Maternal deaths occurred in 3.7% of those who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result compared with 0.1% of those who tested negative (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 31.6, 95% CI 15.4-64.7). Maternal mortality did not differ by HIV status. The offspring of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced more overall adverse birth outcomes (34.5% vs 26.6%; aRR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.4), severe adverse birth outcomes (13.6% vs 9.8%; aRR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.5), preterm delivery (21.4% vs 13.4%; aRR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), and stillbirth (5.6% vs 2.7%; aRR 1.7 95% CI 1.2-2.5). Neonates exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and HIV infection had the highest prevalence of adverse birth outcomes (43.1% vs 22.6%; aRR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.0). CONCLUSION: Infection with SARS-CoV-2 at the time of delivery was associated with 3.7% maternal mortality and 5.6% stillbirth in Botswana. Most adverse birth outcomes were worse among neonates exposed to both SARS-CoV-2 and HIV infection.

Cross-sectional trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Botswana: an opportunity for PrEP?

INTRODUCTION: Young women in sub-Saharan Africa are at particularly high risk of HIV acquisition. Recent shifts towards "test and treat" strategies have potential to reduce transmission in this age group but have not been widely studied outside of clinical trials. Using data from nationwide surveillance among pregnant women in Botswana, where a "test and treat" program was implemented in 2016, we describe trends in HIV prevalence over time and highlight opportunities for targeted prevention. METHODS: The Tsepamo study abstracted data from obstetric records of all women delivering at eight government hospitals in Botswana between 2015 and 2019, accounting for 45% of all births in the country (n = 120,755). We used a stratified analysis to identify prevalence trends and evaluated decreases in HIV prevalence over time using the Cochrane-Armitage test for linear trend. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was also performed to identify factors associated with declines in HIV prevalence. RESULTS: Overall HIV prevalence was 24.1% among 120,755 women who delivered during the study period. Prevalence differed by site of delivery, ranging from 16.1% to 28.2%, and increased markedly with age. Lower educational attainment (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.07-3.50) and being unmarried (aOR = 1.98; 95% CI 1.88-2.08) were associated with HIV infection. HIV prevalence was 10.0% with a first pregnancy, 21.0% with a second and 39.2% with a third or greater (aOR = 2.20; for any prior pregnancy; 95% CI 2.10-2.29). The same age-adjusted trends were seen when data were limited to women aged 15-24, with a two- to three-fold increase in HIV prevalence between a first and third pregnancy. Prevalence decreased linearly during the 5-year study period from 25.8% to 22.7% (p <0.001). Among age-specific strata, the greatest absolute decline occurred in those aged 35-39, with an 8.7% absolute decrease in HIV prevalence from 2015 to 2019. Minimal declines were seen in those 15-24, with a decrease of only 1.5% over the same period. CONCLUSIONS: While overall trends in Botswana show HIV prevalence declining among pregnant women, prevalence among the youngest age group has remained stagnant. Preventative interventions utilizing pre-exposure prophylaxis should be prioritized during the high-risk period surrounding a woman's first pregnancy.

Iron, folic acid, and multiple micronutrient supplementation strategies during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) with iron, folic acid, and other micronutrients might improve birth outcomes, but it is not currently universally recommended by WHO. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we surveyed pregnancies for adverse birth outcomes at eight hospitals from July, 2014, to July, 2018, and 18 hospitals from August, 2018, to December, 2020, in Botswana to assess four routine supplementation strategies in women presenting before 24 weeks' gestation: folic acid only, iron only, iron and folic acid supplementation (IFAS), and MMS. Women with singleton pregnancies; a known HIV status, age, and delivery site; haemoglobin measured within 7 days of presenting to antenatal care; and weight measured within 31 days of presenting to care were included in our analysis. Data were abstracted from the maternity obstetric record (a record of antenatal care) at the time of birth from all women giving birth at selected hospitals throughout the country. We estimated risk differences overall and in key subgroups, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. FINDINGS: Between July 6, 2014, and Dec 8, 2020, 96 341 eligible women (21 659 [22·5%] of whom had HIV) were included in the study. 36 334 (37·7%) women initiated iron only supplementation, 1133 (11·8%) initiated folic acid only supplementation, 23 101 (24·0%) initiated IFAS, and 31 588 (32·8%) women initiated MMS. Women who initiated iron only and folic acid only supplementation had higher risks of stillbirth, preterm birth, very preterm birth, low and very low birthweight, and neonatal death compared with women who received IFAS (adjusted risk differences for iron only supplementation vs IFAS ranged from 0·22% [95% CI 0·04 to 0·40] for neonatal death to 2·39% [1·78 to 3·00] for preterm birth; and adjusted risk differences for folic acid only supplementation vs IFAS ranged from 0·77% [-0·80 to 2·34] for neonatal death to 5·75% [1·38 to 10·13] for preterm birth), with greater difference in women with HIV and those aged 35 years and older. Compared with IFAS, women who initiated MMS had lower risks of preterm and very preterm births, and low and very low birthweight (adjusted risk differences ranged from -0·50% [-0·77 to 0·23] for very preterm birth to -1·06% [-1·69 to -0·42] for preterm birth). INTERPRETATION: Nationwide data from Botswana support improved birth outcomes with MMS compared with IFAS. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Anti-hypertensive use for non-severe gestational hypertension in Botswana: A case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: The fetal risks and benefits of antihypertensives to treat gestational hypertension in pregnancy are understudied, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study within a retrospective cohort of obstetrical patients in Botswana from 2014 to 2019. We included women carrying singletons who developed new onset non-severe hypertension (140-159 mm Hg systolic or 90-109 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure) after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Cases were defined as women with either small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants or stillbirth, analyzed separately; controls were otherwise similar women without the adverse outcome in each analysis. RESULTS: We identified 1932 cases of SGA (7925 controls) and 316 cases of stillbirth (9619 controls). Cases with SGA were more likely to have used an anti-hypertensive than controls (33% vs 29%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-1.43). Cases with stillbirth were more likely to have used an anti-hypertensive than controls (42% versus 29%, aOR 1.45, 95% CI 1.14-1.83). CONCLUSION: Anti-hypertensive use for new-onset gestational hypertension was associated with an increased risk of having an SGA infant or a stillbirth among women who never developed severe hypertension. These data support conduct of a randomized clinical trial to determine the appropriate use of anti-hypertensives in non-severe gestational hypertension.

Adverse Birth Outcomes in Botswana Among Women With Vertically or Horizontally Acquired Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Women with vertically acquired HIV (VHIV) may have a greater risk of adverse birth outcomes than women with horizontally acquired HIV (HHIV). METHODS: The Tsepamo study performed birth outcomes surveillance at 8 government delivery sites in Botswana from July 2014 through March 2019. Pregnant women diagnosed with HIV before their 11th birthday received VHIV status, and other women had HHIV. Small for gestational age (SGA), preterm delivery (PTD), stillbirth, and neonatal death were compared using χ2 and Fisher's exact tests. Log-binomial regression models determined risk ratios (RRs). RESULTS: VHIV women (n = 402) aged 15-27 years were identified over 4 years of surveillance and compared with HHIV women (n = 8465) of the same age. VHIV women were more likely to use nevirapine (NVP)-based antiretroviral treatment (ART) in pregnancy and to have SGA and very SGA infants, but less likely to have very PTD infants. In unadjusted analyses, VHIV women had a higher risk of any adverse birth outcome combined (RR = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.36). After adjusting for potential confounders, particularly use of NVP-based regimens, the risk of adverse birth outcomes among VHIV and HHIV women was similar. CONCLUSIONS: NVP-based ART is a primary and modifiable risk factor for adverse birth outcomes. Updating ART regimens could improve birth outcomes for women with HIV.

Prevalence and outcomes of twin pregnancies in Botswana: a national birth outcomes surveillance study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate the prevalence and outcome of twin pregnancies in Botswana. SETTING: The Tsepamo Study conducted birth outcomes surveillance at 8 government-run hospitals (~45% of all births in Botswana) from August 2014 to June 2018 and expanded to 18 hospitals (~70% of all births in Botswana) from July 2018 to March 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected for all live-born and stillborn in-hospital deliveries with a gestational age (GA) greater than 24 weeks. This analysis included 117 593 singleton and 3718 twin infants (1859 sets (1.6%)) born to 119 477 women between August 2014 and March 2019 and excluded 73 higher order multiples (23 sets of triplets and 1 set of quadruplets). OUTCOMES MEASURED: Our primary outcomes were preterm delivery (<37 weeks GA), very preterm delivery (<32 weeks GA) and stillbirth (APGAR (Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, Respiration) score of 0, 0, 0). RESULTS: Women with twin pregnancies had a similar median number of antenatal care visits (9 vs 10), but were more likely to deliver in a tertiary centre (54.8% vs 45.1%, p<0.001) and more likely to have a cesarean-section (54.6% vs 22.0%, p<0.001) than women with singletons. Compared with singletons, twin pregnancies had a higher risk of preterm delivery (<37 weeks GA) (47.6% vs 16.7%, adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 2.8, 95% CI 2.7 to 2.9) and very preterm delivery (<32 weeks) (11.8% vs 4.0%, aRR 3.0 95% CI 2.6 to 3.4). Among all twin pregnancies, 128 (6.9%) had at least one stillborn infant compared with 2845 (2.4%) stillbirths among singletons (aRR 2.8, 95% CI 2.3 to 3.3). CONCLUSION: Adverse birth outcomes are common among twins in Botswana, and are often severe. Interventions that allow for earlier identification of twin gestation and improved antenatal management of twin pregnancies may improve infant and child survival.

Lack of HIV RNA test result is a barrier to breastfeeding among women living with HIV in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Botswana updated its antiretroviral treatment (ART) guidelines in May 2016 to support breastfeeding for women living with HIV (WLHIV) on ART who have documented HIV RNA suppression during pregnancy. METHODS: From September 2016 to March 2019, we evaluated feeding method at discharge among WLHIV at eight government maternity wards in Botswana within the Tsepamo Study. We validated the recorded feeding method on the obstetric record using the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) counsellor report, infant formula dispensing log or through direct observation. Available HIV RNA results were recorded from the obstetric record, and from outpatient HIV records (starting February 2018). In a subset of participants, we used electronic laboratory records to verify whether an HIV RNA test had occurred. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with infant feeding choice. RESULTS: Among 13,354 WLHIV who had a validated feeding method at discharge, 5303 (39.7%) chose to breastfeed and 8051 (60.3%) chose to formula feed. Women who had a documented HIV RNA result in the obstetric record available to healthcare providers at delivery were more likely to breastfeed (50.8%) compared to women who did not have a documented HIV RNA result (35.4%) (aOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.54, 0.65). Among women with documented HIV RNA, 2711 (94.6%) were virally suppressed (< 400 copies/mL). Breastfeeding occurred in a substantial proportion of women who did not meet criteria, including 46 (30.1%) of 153 women with HIV RNA > 400 copies/mL, and 134 (27.4%) of 489 women with no reported ART use. A sub-analysis of electronic laboratory records among 150 women without a recorded result on the obstetric record revealed that 93 (62%) women had an HIV RNA test during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: In a setting of long-standing use of suppressive ART, with majority of WLHIV on ART from the time of conception, requiring documentation of HIV RNA suppression in the obstetric record to inform infant feeding decisions is a barrier to breastfeeding but unlikely to prevent a substantial amount of HIV transmission.

Seasonality of adverse birth outcomes in women with and without HIV in a representative birth outcomes surveillance study in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest number of people with HIV, one of the most severe burdens of adverse birth outcomes globally and particular vulnerability to climate change. We examined associations between seasonality and adverse birth outcomes among women with and without HIV in a large geographically representative birth outcomes surveillance study in Botswana from 2015 to 2018. METHODS: We evaluated stillbirth, preterm delivery, very preterm delivery, small for gestational age (SGA), very SGA, and combined endpoints of any adverse or severe birth outcome. We estimated the risk of each outcome by month and year of delivery, and adjusted risks ratios (ARRs) of outcomes during the early wet (1 November-15 January), late wet (16 January-31 March) and early dry (1 April-15 July) seasons, compared with the late dry (16 July-31 October) season. Analyses were conducted overall and separately by HIV status. RESULTS: Among 73 178 women (24% with HIV), the risk of all adverse birth outcomes peaked in November-January and reached low points in September. Compared with the late dry season, the ARRs for any adverse birth outcome were 1.03 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) for the early dry season, 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.11) for the early wet season and 1.07 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.10) for the late wet season. Comparing the early wet season to the late dry season, we found that ARRs for stillbirth and very preterm delivery were higher in women with HIV (1.23, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.59, and 1.33, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.62, respectively) than in women without HIV (1.07, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.26, and 1.19, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.36, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a modest association between seasonality and adverse birth outcomes in Botswana, which was greatest among women with HIV. Understanding seasonal patterns of adverse birth outcomes and the role of HIV status may allow for mitigation of their impact in the face of seasonal extremes related to climate change.

Maternal weight and birth outcomes among women on antiretroviral treatment from conception in a birth surveillance study in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretrovirals such as dolutegravir (DTG) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) have been associated with excessive weight gain. The objective of this study was to understand the potential impact of ART-associated weight gain on pregnancy outcomes among women living with HIV. METHODS: Using data from the Tsepamo birth outcomes surveillance study in Botswana, we evaluated the relationship between maternal weight (and weight gain) and severe birth outcomes (very preterm delivery <32 weeks, very small for gestational age (SGA) <3rd percentile, perinatal death), macrosomia (birthweight > 4000 g) and maternal hypertension. We estimated the relative risk of each outcome by baseline weight (first weight in pregnancy <24 weeks) and second trimester average weekly weight gain (kg/week from 12 ± 2 to 24 ± 2 weeks) using log binomial regression and evaluated effect modification by ART regimen (DTG vs. Efavirenz (EFV)). RESULTS: Of 22,828 women on ART at conception with singleton deliveries between August 2014 and April 2020, 16,300 (71.4%) had a weight measured <24 weeks' gestation (baseline weight) and 4437 (19.2%) had weight measured both at 12 (±2) weeks and 24 (±2) weeks, allowing second trimester weight gain calculation. Compared to women with baseline weight 60 to 70 kg, low baseline weight (<50 kg) was associated with increased risk of very preterm delivery (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03, 1.65) and very SGA (aRR1.96, 95% CI 1.69, 2.28). High baseline weight (>90 kg) was associated with increased risk of macrosomia (aRR 3.24, 95% CI 2.36, 4.44) and maternal hypertension (aRR 1.79, 95% CI 1.62, 1.97). Baseline weight was not associated with stillbirth or early neonatal death. For all outcomes, second trimester weight gain showed weaker associations than did baseline weight. Duration of pre-pregnancy ART (years) was associated with higher baseline weight for DTG but not for EFV, and the risk of maternal hypertension by baseline weight category was higher for DTG than EFV for all strata. CONCLUSIONS: ART regimens associated with weight gain may reduce the number of women at risk for certain severe adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with low weight but increase the number at risk of macrosomia and maternal hypertension. Further research could determine whether weight-based ART treatment strategies improve maternal and child health.

Weight gain during pregnancy among women initiating dolutegravir in Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggests clinically significant weight gain among non-pregnant HIV-positive adults after starting dolutegravir-based ART (DTG). Excess or insufficient weight gain in pregnancy could adversely impact pregnancy outcomes, but data for pregnant women receiving DTG are limited. METHODS: The Tsepamo Study captured data at delivery sites in Botswana from 2014 to 2019. HIV testing, HIV treatment information, and weight measurements during antenatal care were abstracted from the maternity obstetric record at delivery. HIV-positive women initiating DTG or efavirenz-based ART (EFV) between conception and 17 weeks gestation and HIV-uninfected women first presenting for antenatal care before 17 weeks gestation were included. We evaluated weekly weight gain, total 18-week weight gain, excess weight gain (>0.59 kg/week), insufficient weight gain (<0.18 kg/week), and weight loss between 18±2 and 36±2 weeks gestation, adjusting for demographic and clinical variables. FINDINGS: Baseline characteristics were similar by exposure group, including pre-pregnancy and early pregnancy weight. Compared with EFV, mean weekly weight gain between 18 and 36 weeks gestation was 0.05 (95% CI 0.03, 0.07) kg/week higher for women initiating DTG and 0.12 (0.10, 0.14) kg/week higher for HIV-uninfected women. Mean 18-week weight gain was 1.05 (95% CI 0.61, 1.49) kg higher for women initiating DTG and 2.31 (1.85, 2.77) kg higher for HIV-uninfected women, compared with EFV. Women initiating DTG were more likely to gain excess weight but less likely to gain insufficient weight or lose weight than women initiating EFV. INTERPRETATION: Women initiating DTG compared with EFV during pregnancy gained more weight between 18 and 36 weeks gestation. Neither group gained as much weight as HIV-uninfected women. Initiating DTG compared with EFV during pregnancy could increase the risk of excess weight gain but decrease the risk of insufficient weight gain and weight loss, which could have positive and negative consequences in pregnancy. Our findings are consistent with prior studies in non-pregnant adults.