The burden of cardiovascular disease and risk for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events in survivors of childhood cancer: a prospective, longitudinal analysis from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of the increasing lifetime burden of non-major cardiovascular conditions on risk for a subsequent major adverse cardiovascular event among survivors of childhood cancer has not been assessed. We aimed to characterise the prevalence of major adverse cardiovascular events and their association with the cumulative burden of non-major adverse cardiovascular events in childhood cancer survivors. METHODS: This is a longitudinal cohort study with participant data obtained from an ongoing cohort study at St Jude Children's Research Hospital: the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE). Prospective clinical follow-up was of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer who were diagnosed when aged younger than 25 years from 1962 to 2012. Age-frequency, sex-frequency, and race-frequency matched community-control participants completed a similar one-time clinical assessment. 22 cardiovascular events were graded using a St Jude Children's Research Hospital-modified version of the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4.03). Cumulative incidence and burden of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, stroke, and other cardiovascular-related mortality) were estimated. Rate ratios (RR) of the association of major adverse cardiovascular events with 22 non-major adverse cardiovascular events were estimated using multivariable piecewise-exponential regression adjusting for attained age, age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, treatment era, diagnosis of diabetes, and exposure to cardiotoxic cancer therapies. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00760656, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: 9602 5-year survivors of childhood cancer, and 737 community controls were included in the longitudinal follow-up (from Sept 13, 2007, to Dec 17, 2021). The median follow-up was 20·3 years (IQR 12·0-31·4) from the date of primary cancer diagnosis (4311 [44.9%] were females). By the age of 50 years (analysis stopped at age 50 years due to the low number of participants older than that age), the cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events among survivors was 17·7% (95% CI 15·9-19·5) compared with 0·9% (0·0-2·1) in the community controls. The cumulative burden of major adverse cardiovascular events in survivors was 0·26 (95% CI 0·23-0·29) events per survivor compared with 0·009 (0·000-0·021) events per community control participant. Increasing cumulative burden of grade 1-4 non-major adverse cardiovascular events was associated with an increased future risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (one condition: RR 4·3, 95% CI 3·1-6·0; p<0·0001; two conditions: 6·6, 4·6-9·5; p<0·0001; and three conditions: 7·7, 5·1-11·4; p<0·0001). Increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular events was observed with specific subclinical conditions (eg, grade 1 arrhythmias [RR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2-2·0; p=0·0017]), grade 2 left ventricular systolic dysfunction (2·2, 1·6-3·1; p<0·0001), grade 2 valvular disorders (2·2, 1·2-4·0; p=0·013), but not grade 1 hypercholesterolaemia, grade 1-2 hypertriglyceridaemia, or grade 1-2 vascular stenosis. INTERPRETATION: Among an ageing cohort of survivors of childhood cancer, the accumulation of non-major adverse cardiovascular events, including subclinical conditions, increased the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and should be the focus of interventions for early detection and prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events. FUNDING: The US National Cancer Institute and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities.

Modifiable Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in Survivors of Childhood Cancer: JACC: CardioOncology State-of-the-Art Review.

The growing community of childhood cancer survivors faces a heavy burden of late onset morbidities and mortality, with cardiovascular diseases being the leading noncancer cause. In addition to demographics and cancer treatment exposures, which cannot be altered, cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and frailty potentiate the risk of morbidity and mortality associated with chronic health conditions. Important opportunities exist to target these risk factors and improve late health outcomes for survivors. Unfortunately, limited evidence exists on the optimal methods to prevent, screen, and treat cardiometabolic risk factors among survivors, resulting in significant underdiagnosis and undertreatment. In this review, we discuss the prevalence of, risk factors for, current survivor-specific recommendations, and gaps in knowledge to mitigate potentially modifiable cardiometabolic risk factors and frailty among survivors of childhood cancer.

Lifestyle and Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms in Childhood Cancer Survivors: A Report from the St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to assess longitudinal associations between lifestyle and subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in young adult childhood cancer survivors. METHODS: Members of the St. Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE) aged ≥18 years and surviving ≥5 years after childhood cancer diagnosis were queried and evaluated for physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), muscle strength, body mass index (BMI), smoking, risky drinking, and a combined lifestyle score. Time to first SMN, excluding nonmalignant neoplasms and nonmelanoma skin cancer, was the outcome of longitudinal analysis. RESULTS: Survivors (n = 4072, 47% female, 29% smokers, 37% risky drinkers, 34% obese, and 48% physically inactive) had a mean (SD) time between baseline evaluation and follow-up of 7.0 (3.3) years, an age of 8.7 (5.7) years at diagnosis, and an age of 30 (8.4) years at baseline lifestyle assessment. Neither individual lifestyle factors nor a healthy lifestyle score (RR 0.8, 0.4-1.3, p = 0.36) were associated with the risk of developing an SMN. CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify any association between lifestyle factors and the risk of SMN in young adult childhood cancer survivors.

Feasibility of remote monitoring for fatal coronary heart disease using Apple Watch ECGs.

Background: Fatal coronary heart disease (FCHD) is often described as sudden cardiac death (affects >4 million people/year), where coronary artery disease is the only identified condition. Electrocardiographic artificial intelligence (ECG-AI) models for FCHD risk prediction using ECG data from wearable devices could enable wider screening/monitoring efforts. Objectives: To develop a single-lead ECG-based deep learning model for FCHD risk prediction and assess concordance between clinical and Apple Watch ECGs. Methods: An FCHD single-lead ("lead I" from 12-lead ECGs) ECG-AI model was developed using 167,662 ECGs (50,132 patients) from the University of Tennessee Health Sciences Center. Eighty percent of the data (5-fold cross-validation) was used for training and 20% as a holdout. Cox proportional hazards (CPH) models incorporating ECG-AI predictions with age, sex, and race were also developed. The models were tested on paired clinical single-lead and Apple Watch ECGs from 243 St. Jude Lifetime Cohort Study participants. The correlation and concordance of the predictions were assessed using Pearson correlation (R), Spearman correlation (ρ), and Cohen's kappa. Results: The ECG-AI and CPH models resulted in AUC = 0.76 and 0.79, respectively, on the 20% holdout and AUC = 0.85 and 0.87 on the Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist external validation data. There was moderate-strong positive correlation between predictions (R = 0.74, ρ = 0.67, and κ = 0.58) when tested on the 243 paired ECGs. The clinical (lead I) and Apple Watch predictions led to the same low/high-risk FCHD classification for 99% of the participants. CPH prediction correlation resulted in an R = 0.81, ρ = 0.76, and κ = 0.78. Conclusion: Risk of FCHD can be predicted from single-lead ECGs obtained from wearable devices and are statistically concordant with lead I of a 12-lead ECG.

Improved Cardiomyopathy Risk Prediction Using Global Longitudinal Strain and N-Terminal-Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in Survivors of Childhood Cancer Exposed to Cardiotoxic Therapy.

PURPOSE: To leverage baseline global longitudinal strain (GLS) and N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to identify childhood cancer survivors with a normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) at highest risk of future treatment-related cardiomyopathy. METHODS: St Jude Lifetime Cohort participants ≥5 years from diagnosis, at increased risk for cardiomyopathy per the International Guideline Harmonization Group (IGHG), with an LVEF ≥50% on baseline echocardiography (n = 1,483) underwent measurement of GLS (n = 1,483) and NT-proBNP (n = 1,052; 71%). Multivariable Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for postbaseline cardiomyopathy (modified Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events ≥grade 2) incidence in association with echocardiogram-based GLS (≥-18) and/or NT-proBNP (>age-sex-specific 97.5th percentiles). Prediction performance was assessed using AUC in models with and without GLS and NT-proBNP and compared using DeLong's test for IGHG moderate- and high-risk individuals treated with anthracyclines. RESULTS: Among survivors (median age, 37.6; range, 10.2-70.4 years), 162 (11.1%) developed ≥grade 2 cardiomyopathy 5.1 (0.7-10.0) years from baseline assessment. The 5-year cumulative incidence of cardiomyopathy for survivors with and without abnormal GLS was, respectively, 7.3% (95% CI, 4.7 to 9.9) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0 to 5.7) and abnormal NT-proBNP was 9.9% (95% CI, 5.8 to 14.1) versus 4.7% (95% CI, 3.2 to 6.2). Among survivors with a normal LVEF, abnormal baseline GLS and NT-proBNP identified anthracycline-exposed, IGHG-defined moderate-/high-risk survivors at a four-fold increased hazard of postbaseline cardiomyopathy (HR, 4.39 [95% CI, 2.46 to 7.83]; P < .001), increasing to a HR of 14.16 (95% CI, 6.45 to 31.08; P < .001) among survivors who received ≥250 mg/m2 of anthracyclines. Six years after baseline, AUCs for individual risk prediction were 0.70 for models with and 0.63 for models without GLS and NT-proBNP (P = .022). CONCLUSION: GLS and NT-proBNP should be considered for improved identification of survivors at high risk for future cardiomyopathy.

Trans-Ancestral Genetic Risk Factors for Treatment-Related Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Survivors of Childhood Cancer.

PURPOSE: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) is a prevalent long-term complication of treatment in survivors of childhood cancer, with marked racial/ethnic differences in burden. In this study, we investigated trans-ancestral genetic risks for treatment-related T2D. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Leveraging whole-genome sequencing data from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (N = 3,676, 304 clinically ascertained cases), we conducted ancestry-specific genome-wide association studies among survivors of African and European genetic ancestry (AFR and EUR, respectively) followed by trans-ancestry meta-analysis. Trans-/within-ancestry replication including data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (N = 5,965) was required for prioritization. Three external general population T2D polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were assessed, including multiancestry PRSs. Treatment risk effect modification was evaluated for prioritized loci. RESULTS: Four novel T2D risk loci showing trans-/within-ancestry replication evidence were identified, with three loci achieving genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Among these, common variants at 5p15.2 (LINC02112), 2p25.3 (MYT1L), and 19p12 (ZNF492) showed evidence of modifying alkylating agent-related T2D risk in both ancestral groups, but showed disproportionately greater risk in AFR survivors (AFR odds ratios [ORs], 3.95-17.81; EUR ORs, 2.37-3.32). In survivor-specific RNA-sequencing data (N = 207), the 19p12 locus variant was associated with greater ZNF492 expression dysregulation after exposures to alkylators. Elevated T2D risks across ancestry groups were only observed with increasing values for multiancestry T2D PRSs and were especially increased among survivors treated with alkylators (top v bottom quintiles: ORAFR, 20.18; P = .023; OREUR, 13.44; P = 1.3 × 10-9). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest therapy-related genetic risks contribute to the increased T2D burden among non-Hispanic Black childhood cancer survivors. Additional study of how therapy-related genetic susceptibility contributes to this disparity is needed.