Leveraging probability concepts for cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials.

KEY MESSAGE: We propose using probability concepts from Bayesian models to leverage a more informed decision-making process toward cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials. Statistical models that capture the phenotypic plasticity of a genotype across environments are crucial in plant breeding programs to potentially identify parents, generate offspring, and obtain highly productive genotypes for target environments. In this study, our aim is to leverage concepts of Bayesian models and probability methods of stability analysis to untangle genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). The proposed method employs the posterior distribution obtained with the No-U-Turn sampler algorithm to get Hamiltonian Monte Carlo estimates of adaptation and stability probabilities. We applied the proposed models in two empirical tropical datasets. Our findings provide a basis to enhance our ability to consider the uncertainty of cultivar recommendation for global or specific adaptation. We further demonstrate that probability methods of stability analysis in a Bayesian framework are a powerful tool for unraveling GEI given a defined intensity of selection that results in a more informed decision-making process toward cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials.

Comparative evolutionary genetics of deleterious load in sorghum and maize.

Sorghum and maize share a close evolutionary history that can be explored through comparative genomics1,2. To perform a large-scale comparison of the genomic variation between these two species, we analysed ~13 million variants identified from whole-genome resequencing of 499 sorghum lines together with 25 million variants previously identified in 1,218 maize lines. Deleterious mutations in both species were prevalent in pericentromeric regions, enriched in non-syntenic genes and present at low allele frequencies. A comparison of deleterious burden between sorghum and maize revealed that sorghum, in contrast to maize, departed from the domestication-cost hypothesis that predicts a higher deleterious burden among domesticates compared with wild lines. Additionally, sorghum and maize population genetic summary statistics were used to predict a gene deleterious index with an accuracy greater than 0.5. This research represents a key step towards understanding the evolutionary dynamics of deleterious variants in sorghum and provides a comparative genomics framework to start prioritizing these variants for removal through genome editing and breeding.

Novel Bayesian Networks for Genomic Prediction of Developmental Traits in Biomass Sorghum.

The ability to connect genetic information between traits over time allow Bayesian networks to offer a powerful probabilistic framework to construct genomic prediction models. In this study, we phenotyped a diversity panel of 869 biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) lines, which had been genotyped with 100,435 SNP markers, for plant height (PH) with biweekly measurements from 30 to 120 days after planting (DAP) and for end-of-season dry biomass yield (DBY) in four environments. We evaluated five genomic prediction models: Bayesian network (BN), Pleiotropic Bayesian network (PBN), Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), multi-trait GBLUP (MTr-GBLUP), and multi-time GBLUP (MTi-GBLUP) models. In fivefold cross-validation, prediction accuracies ranged from 0.46 (PBN) to 0.49 (MTr-GBLUP) for DBY and from 0.47 (DBN, DAP120) to 0.75 (MTi-GBLUP, DAP60) for PH. Forward-chaining cross-validation further improved prediction accuracies of the DBN, MTi-GBLUP and MTr-GBLUP models for PH (training slice: 30-45 DAP) by 36.4-52.4% relative to the BN and PBN models. Coincidence indices (target: biomass, secondary: PH) and a coincidence index based on lines (PH time series) showed that the ranking of lines by PH changed minimally after 45 DAP. These results suggest a two-level indirect selection method for PH at harvest (first-level target trait) and DBY (second-level target trait) could be conducted earlier in the season based on ranking of lines by PH at 45 DAP (secondary trait). With the advance of high-throughput phenotyping technologies, our proposed two-level indirect selection framework could be valuable for enhancing genetic gain per unit of time when selecting on developmental traits.

Genomic Selection with Allele Dosage in Panicum maximum Jacq.

Genomic selection is an efficient approach to get shorter breeding cycles in recurrent selection programs and greater genetic gains with selection of superior individuals. Despite advances in genotyping techniques, genetic studies for polyploid species have been limited to a rough approximation of studies in diploid species. The major challenge is to distinguish the different types of heterozygotes present in polyploid populations. In this work, we evaluated different genomic prediction models applied to a recurrent selection population of 530 genotypes of Panicum maximum, an autotetraploid forage grass. We also investigated the effect of the allele dosage in the prediction, i.e., considering tetraploid (GS-TD) or diploid (GS-DD) allele dosage. A longitudinal linear mixed model was fitted for each one of the six phenotypic traits, considering different covariance matrices for genetic and residual effects. A total of 41,424 genotyping-by-sequencing markers were obtained using 96-plex and Pst1 restriction enzyme, and quantitative genotype calling was performed. Six predictive models were generalized to tetraploid species and predictive ability was estimated by a replicated fivefold cross-validation process. GS-TD and GS-DD models were performed considering 1,223 informative markers. Overall, GS-TD data yielded higher predictive abilities than with GS-DD data. However, different predictive models had similar predictive ability performance. In this work, we provide bioinformatic and modeling guidelines to consider tetraploid dosage and observed that genomic selection may lead to additional gains in recurrent selection program of P. maximum.