Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.

US Food Industry Progress Toward Salt Reduction, 2009-2018.

Objectives. To determine the extent to which reductions in sodium during the National Salt Reduction Initiative (NSRI) target-setting period (2009-2014) continued after 2014. Methods. We used the NSRI Packaged Food Database, which links products in the top 80% of US packaged food sales to nutrition information, to assess the proportion of products meeting the NSRI targets and the sales-weighted mean sodium density (mg/100 g) of 54 packaged food categories between 2009 and 2018. Results. There was an 8.5% sales-weighted mean reduction in sodium between 2009 and 2018. Most change occurred between 2009 and 2012, with little change in subsequent years. The proportion of packaged foods meeting the 2012 and 2014 targets increased 48% and 45%, respectively, from 2009 to 2012, with no additional improvements through 2018. Conclusions. Food manufacturers reduced sodium in the early years of the NSRI, but progress slowed after 2012. Public Health Implications. The US Food and Drug Administration just released 2.5-year voluntary sodium targets for packaged and restaurant food. Continued assessment of industry progress and further target setting by the Food and Drug Administration is crucial to reducing sodium in the food supply.

Estimated Reductions in Added Sugar Intake among US Children and Youth in Response to Sugar Reduction Targets.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative (NSSRI) released voluntary sugar reduction targets for packaged foods and drinks in the United States. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were to describe trends in added sugar intake from NSSRI foods and beverages among children and youth and estimate possible reductions if industry were to meet the targets. DESIGN: This study consisted of cross-sectional and trend analyses of demographic and 24-hour dietary recall data from eight survey cycles (2003-2004 to 2017-2018) of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: The study sample included 23,248 children and youth (aged 2 to 19 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was the percent of daily calories from added sugar for foods and beverages in NSSRI categories. STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: Foods and beverages reported by participants were mapped to one of the NSSRI's categories or coded as a non-NSSRI item. Trends over time in added sugar intake were assessed using regression models. To assess possible reductions in added sugar intake if industry were to meet the targets, sales-weighted mean percent reductions for 2023 and 2026 targets were applied to NSSRI items in the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Suvey data. Results were examined overall and by demographic characteristics. RESULTS: From 2003-2004 to 2017-2018, added sugar intake from NSSRI foods and beverages declined, but consumption remained high. During 2017-2018, NSSRI categories accounted for 70% of US child and youth added sugar intake. If industry met the NSSRI targets, US children and youth would consume 7% (2023 targets) to 21% (2026 targets) less added sugar. CONCLUSIONS: Although added sugar intake from NSSRI foods and drinks has declined over the past decade, added sugar intake from all sources remains high and consumption of added sugar from certain NSSRI categories has remained steady over time. If met, the NSSRI targets are expected to result in meaningful reductions in added sugar intake for US children and youth.

Disparities in Sugary Drink Advertising on New York City Streets.

INTRODUCTION: Studies show that outdoor advertisements for unhealthy, consumable products are associated with increased intake and often target youth, low-income neighborhoods, and neighborhoods of color. Despite evidence that overconsumption of sugary drinks contributes to obesity and other chronic conditions, little is known specifically regarding the patterns of outdoor sugary drink advertising. METHODS: The number of outdoor, street-level advertisements featuring sugary drinks was assessed in a random sample of retail-dense street segments (N=953) in low, medium, and high-poverty neighborhoods in each of New York City's 5 boroughs in 2015. Negative binomial regression was used to determine associations between sugary drink ad density, poverty level, and other census tract-level demographics (2009-2013 estimates) in each borough and New York City overall. Data were analyzed in 2017-2019. RESULTS: In New York City and in 3 of 5 boroughs, sugary drink ad density was positively associated with increased percentages of black, non-Latino residents (New York City: incidence rate ratio=1.20, p<0.001; Bronx: incidence rate ratio=1.30, p=0.005; Brooklyn: incidence rate ratio=1.18, p<0.001; Manhattan: incidence rate ratio=1.20, p<0.05). Positive associations were also observed with poverty level in Brooklyn (low versus medium poverty: incidence rate ratio=2.16, p=0.09; low versus high poverty: incidence rate ratio=2.17, p=0.02) and Staten Island (low versus medium poverty: incidence rate ratio=3.27, p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: This study found a consistent positive association between the density of outdoor sugary drink advertisements and the presence of non-Latino black residents in New York City and, in some boroughs, evidence of a positive association with neighborhood poverty. These findings highlight the inequities where sugary drinks are advertised in New York City.