Effect of baseline oestradiol serum concentration on the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk: a case-control study of the IBIS-II prevention trial.

BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer is associated with high serum concentrations of oestradiol and testosterone in postmenopausal women, but little is known about how these hormones affect response to endocrine therapy for breast cancer prevention or treatment. We aimed to assess the effects of serum oestradiol and testosterone concentrations on the efficacy of the aromatase inhibitor anastrozole for the prevention of breast cancer in postmenopausal women at high risk. METHODS: In this case-control study we used data from the IBIS-II prevention trial, a randomised, controlled, double-blind trial in postmenopausal women aged 40-70 years at high risk of breast cancer, conducted in 153 breast cancer treatment centres across 18 countries. In the trial, women were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive anastrozole (1 mg/day, orally) or placebo daily for 5 years. In this pre-planned case-control study, the primary analysis was the effect of the baseline oestradiol to sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) ratio (oestradiol-SHBG ratio) on the development of all breast cancers, including ductal carcinoma in situ (the primary endpoint in the trial). Cases were participants in whom breast cancer was reported after trial entry and until the cutoff on Oct 22, 2019, and who had valid blood samples and no use of hormone replacement therapy within 3 months of trial entry or during the trial. For each case, two controls without breast cancer were selected at random, matched on treatment group, age (within 2 years), and follow-up time (at least that of the matching case). For each treatment group, we applied a multinominal logistic regression likelihood-ratio trend test to assess what change in the proportion of cases was associated with a one-quartile change in hormone ratio. Controls were used only to determine quartile cutoffs. Profile likelihood 95% CIs were used to indicate the precision of estimates. A secondary analysis also investigated the effect of the baseline testosterone-SHBG ratio on breast cancer development. We also assessed relative benefit of anastrozole versus placebo (calculated as 1 - the ratio of breast cancer cases in the anastrozole group to cases in the placebo group). The trial was registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN31488319) and completed recruitment on Jan 31, 2012, but long-term follow-up is ongoing. FINDINGS: 3864 women were recruited into the trial between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012, and randomly assigned to receive anastrozole (n=1920) or placebo (n=1944). Median follow-up time was 131 months (IQR 106-156), during which 85 (4·4%) cases of breast cancer in the anastrozole group and 165 (8·5%) in the placebo group were identified. No data on gender, race, or ethnicity were collected. After exclusions, the case-control study included 212 participants from the anastrozole group (72 cases, 140 controls) and 416 from the placebo group (142 cases, 274 controls). A trend of increasing breast cancer risk with increasing oestradiol-SHBG ratio was found in the placebo group (trend per quartile 1·25 [95% CI 1·08 to 1·45], p=0·0033), but not in the anastrozole group (1·06 [0·86 to 1·30], p=0·60). A weaker effect was seen for the testosterone-SHBG ratio in the placebo group (trend 1·21 [1·05 to 1·41], p=0·011), but again not in the anastrozole group (trend 1·18 [0·96 to 1·46], p=0·11). A relative benefit of anastrozole was seen in quartile 2 (0·55 [95% CI 0·13 to 0·78]), quartile 3 (0·54 [0·22 to 0·74], and quartile 4 (0·56 [0·23 to 0·76]) of oestradiol-SHBG ratio, but not in quartile 1 (0·18 [-0·60 to 0·59]). INTERPRETATION: These results suggest that serum hormones should be measured more routinely and integrated into risk management decisions. Measuring serum hormone concentrations is inexpensive and might help clinicians differentiate which women will benefit most from an aromatase inhibitor. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and DaCosta Fund.

Clinical and molecular predictors of very late recurrence in oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Risk of recurrence from primary ER+ breast cancer continues for at least 20 years. We aimed to identify clinical and molecular features associated with risk of recurrence after 10 years. METHODS: ER+ breast cancers from patients with and without recurrence were analysed with the BC360 NanoString Panel and an 87 gene targeted-exome panel. Frequency of clinical, pathologic and molecular characteristics was compared between cases (recurred between 10 and 20 years) and controls (no recurrence by 20 years) in the Very Late Recurrence (VLR) cohort. Analogous data from METABRIC were examined to confirm or refute findings. RESULTS: VLR cases had larger tumours and higher node positivity. Both VLR and METABRIC cases had higher clinical treatment score at 5 years (CTS5). There was a trend for fewer GATA3 mutations in cases in both VLR and METABRIC but no statistically significant differences in mutation frequency. Cell cycle and proliferation genes were strongly expressed in VLR cases. Immune-related genes and cell cycle inhibitors were highly expressed in controls. Neither of these changes were significant after correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicopathologic features are prognostic beyond 10 years. Conversely, molecular features, such as copy number alterations, TP53 mutations and intrinsic subtype which have early prognostic significance, have little prognostic value after 10 years.

Clinico-pathologic relationships with Ki67 and its change with short-term aromatase inhibitor treatment in primary ER + breast cancer: further results from the POETIC trial (CRUK/07/015).

PURPOSE: Ki67 assessed at diagnosis (Ki67baseline) is an important prognostic factor in primary oestrogen receptor-positive (ER +) breast cancer. Proportional change in Ki67 after 2 weeks (∆Ki672week) is associated with clinical benefit from endocrine therapies and residual Ki67 (Ki672week) with recurrence-free survival. The aim was to define the association between Ki67baseline and after aromatase inhibitor (AI) exposure ∆Ki672week and Ki672week with key prognostic and biologic factors utilising data from the POETIC study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In POETIC 4480 postmenopausal patients with primary ER and/or PgR + breast cancer were randomised 2:1 to 2 weeks' presurgical AI (anastrozole or letrozole) or no presurgical treatment (control). Ki67 was measured centrally in core-cut biopsies taken prior to AI and in core-cuts or the excision biopsy at surgery. Relationships between the Ki67 and biologic factors were explored using linear regression. RESULTS: Established associations of Ki67baseline with biologic factors including PgR status, tumour grade, tumour size, histological subtype, nodal status, and vascular invasion were confirmed in the HER2- subpopulation. In the HER2 + subpopulation only grade and tumour size were significantly associated with Ki67baseline. In control group Ki672week was 18% lower than Ki67baseline (p < 0.001) when Ki672week was measured in excision biopsies but not when measured in core-cuts. Median suppression by AIs (∆Ki672week) was 79.3% (IQR: -89.9 to -54.6) and 53.7% (IQR: -78.9 to -21.1) for HER2-negative and HER2-positive cases, respectively. Significantly less suppression occurred in PgR- vs PgR + and HER2 + vs HER2- tumours which remained apparent after adjustment for 2-week sample type. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of this study allowed characterisation of relationships between Ki67baseline, ∆Ki672week and Ki672week with high degrees of confidence providing a reference source for other studies. Lower values of Ki67 occur when measured on excision biopsies and could lead to apparent but artefactual decreases in Ki67: this should be considered when either ∆Ki672week or Ki672week is used in routine clinical practice to aid treatment decisions or in clinical trials assessing new drug therapies.

Relationship between ER expression by IHC or mRNA with Ki67 response to aromatase inhibition: a POETIC study.

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice, oestrogen receptor (ER) analysis is almost entirely by immunohistochemistry (IHC). ASCO/CAP recommends cut-offs of < 1% (negative) and 1-10% (low) cells positive. There is uncertainty whether patients with ER low tumours benefit from endocrine therapy. We aimed to assess IHC and mRNA cut-points for ER versus biological response of primary breast cancer to 2 weeks' aromatase inhibitor treatment as measured by change in Ki67. METHODS: Cases were selected from the aromatase inhibitor treatment group of POETIC. We selected the 15% with the poorest Ki67 response (PR, < 40% Ki67 suppression, n = 230) and a random 30% of the remainder categorised as intermediate (IR, 40-79% Ki67 suppression, n = 150) and good-responders (GR, ≥ 80% Ki67 suppression, n = 230) from HER2 - group. All HER2 + cases available were selected irrespective of their response category (n = 317). ER expression was measured by IHC and qPCR. RESULTS: ER IHC was available from 515 HER2 - and 186 HER2 + tumours and ER qPCR from 367 HER2 - and 171 HER2 + tumours. Ninety-one percentage of patients with ER IHC < 10% were PRs with similar rates in HER2 - and HER2 + cases. At or above ER IHC 10% substantial numbers of patients showed IR or GR. Similar proportions of patients were defined by cut-points of ER IHC < 10% and ER mRNA < 5 units. In addition, loss of PgR expression altered ER anti-proliferation response with 92% of PgR - cases with ER IHC < 40% being PRs. CONCLUSIONS: There was little responsiveness at IHC < 10% and no distinction between < 1% and 1-10% cells positive. Similar separation of PRs from IR/GRs was achieved by IHC and mRNA.

Systematically higher Ki67 scores on core biopsy samples compared to corresponding resection specimen in breast cancer: a multi-operator and multi-institutional study.

Ki67 has potential clinical importance in breast cancer but has yet to see broad acceptance due to inter-laboratory variability. Here we tested an open source and calibrated automated digital image analysis (DIA) platform to: (i) investigate the comparability of Ki67 measurement across corresponding core biopsy and resection specimen cases, and (ii) assess section to section differences in Ki67 scoring. Two sets of 60 previously stained slides containing 30 core-cut biopsy and 30 corresponding resection specimens from 30 estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer patients were sent to 17 participating labs for automated assessment of average Ki67 expression. The blocks were centrally cut and immunohistochemically (IHC) stained for Ki67 (MIB-1 antibody). The QuPath platform was used to evaluate tumoral Ki67 expression. Calibration of the DIA method was performed as in published studies. A guideline for building an automated Ki67 scoring algorithm was sent to participating labs. Very high correlation and no systematic error (p = 0.08) was found between consecutive Ki67 IHC sections. Ki67 scores were higher for core biopsy slides compared to paired whole sections from resections (p ≤ 0.001; median difference: 5.31%). The systematic discrepancy between core biopsy and corresponding whole sections was likely due to pre-analytical factors (tissue handling, fixation). Therefore, Ki67 IHC should be tested on core biopsy samples to best reflect the biological status of the tumor.

Use of anastrozole for breast cancer prevention (IBIS-II): long-term results of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two large clinical trials have shown a reduced rate of breast cancer development in high-risk women in the initial 5 years of follow-up after use of aromatase inhibitors (MAP.3 and International Breast Cancer Intervention Study II [IBIS-II]). Here, we report blinded long-term follow-up results for the IBIS-II trial, which compared anastrozole with placebo, with the objective of determining the efficacy of anastrozole for preventing breast cancer (both invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ) in the post-treatment period. METHODS: IBIS-II is an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Postmenopausal women at increased risk of developing breast cancer were recruited and were randomly assigned (1:1) to either anastrozole (1 mg per day, oral) or matching placebo daily for 5 years. After treatment completion, women were followed on a yearly basis to collect data on breast cancer incidence, death, other cancers, and major adverse events (cardiovascular events and fractures). The primary outcome was all breast cancer. FINDINGS: 3864 women were recruited between Feb 2, 2003, and Jan 31, 2012. 1920 women were randomly assigned to 5 years anastrozole and 1944 to placebo. After a median follow-up of 131 months (IQR 105-156), a 49% reduction in breast cancer was observed for anastrozole (85 vs 165 cases, hazard ratio [HR] 0·51, 95% CI 0·39-0·66, p<0·0001). The reduction was larger in the first 5 years (35 vs 89, 0·39, 0·27-0·58, p<0·0001), but still significant after 5 years (50 vs 76 new cases, 0·64, 0·45-0·91, p=0·014), and not significantly different from the first 5 years (p=0·087). Invasive oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer was reduced by 54% (HR 0·46, 95% CI 0·33-0·65, p<0·0001), with a continued significant effect in the period after treatment. A 59% reduction in ductal carcinoma in situ was observed (0·41, 0·22-0·79, p=0·0081), especially in participants known to be oestrogen receptor-positive (0·22, 0·78-0·65, p<0·0001). No significant difference in deaths was observed overall (69 vs 70, HR 0·96, 95% CI 0·69-1·34, p=0·82) or for breast cancer (two anastrozole vs three placebo). A significant decrease in non-breast cancers was observed for anastrozole (147 vs 200, odds ratio 0·72, 95% CI 0·57-0·91, p=0·0042), owing primarily to non-melanoma skin cancer. No excess of fractures or cardiovascular disease was observed. INTERPRETATION: This analysis has identified a significant continuing reduction in breast cancer with anastrozole in the post-treatment follow-up period, with no evidence of new late side-effects. Further follow-up is needed to assess the effect on breast cancer mortality. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, the National Health and Medical Research Council Australia, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Sanofi Aventis, and AstraZeneca.

Clinical validity of clinical treatment score 5 (CTS5) for estimating risk of late recurrence in unselected, non-trial patients with early oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Clinical Treatment Score at 5 years (CTS5) is a prognostic tool to estimate distant recurrence (DR) risk after 5 years of endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) breast cancer. METHODS: The validity of CTS5 was tested in a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with early ER-positive breast cancer. The primary endpoint was DR in years 5-10. The primary analysis cohort consisted of postmenopausal women, with premenopausal women as a secondary analysis cohort. Cox regression models were used to determine the prognostic value of CTS5 and Kaplan-Meier curves were used with associated 10-year DR risks (%). RESULTS: 2428 women were included with a median follow-up of 13.4 years. The CTS5 was significantly prognostic in both postmenopausal (N = 1662, HR = 2.18 95% CI (1.78-2.67)) and premenopausal women (N = 766, HR = 1.84 95% CI (1.32-2.56)). The 10-year DR risks were 2.9% (1.9-4.5), 7.2% (5.3-9.9), and 12.9% (10.0-16.7) for low, intermediate and high risk in postmenopausal women and 3.8% (2.2-6.7), 6.9% (4.4-10.8), and 11.1% (7.4-16.5) in premenopausal women, respectively. The number of observed DRs was significantly greater than expected in those predicted to be at high risk by CTS5 but this discordance was lost when those receiving more than 60 months of endocrine therapy were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: The CTS5 demonstrated clinical validity for predicting late DR within a large cohort of unselected postmenopausal patients but less so in premenopausal patients. Calibration of the CTS5 was good in patients who did not receive extended endocrine therapy. The CTS5 low-risk cohort has risk of DR so low as to not warrant extended endocrine therapy.

Impact of the menstrual cycle on commercial prognostic gene signatures in oestrogen receptor-positive primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Changes occur in the expression of oestrogen-regulated and proliferation-associated genes in oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast tumours during the menstrual cycle. We investigated if Oncotype® DX recurrence score (RS), Prosigna® (ROR) and EndoPredict® (EP/EPclin) prognostic tests, which include some of these genes, vary according to the time in the menstrual cycle when they are measured. METHODS: Pairs of test scores were derived from 30 ER-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor-2-negative tumours sampled at two different points of the menstrual cycle. Menstrual cycle windows were prospectively defined as either W1 (days 1-6 and 27-35; low oestrogen and low progesterone) or W2 (days 7-26; high oestrogen and high or low progesterone). RESULTS: The invasion module score of RS was lower (- 10.9%; p = 0.098), whereas the ER (+ 16.6%; p = 0.046) and proliferation (+ 7.3%; p = 0.13) module scores were higher in W2. PGR expression was significantly increased in W2 (+ 81.4%; p = 0.0029). Despite this, mean scores were not significantly different between W1 and W2 for any of the tests and the two measurements showed high correlation (r = 0.72-0.93). However, variability between the two measurements led to tumours being assigned to different risk categories in the following proportion of cases: RS 22.7%, ROR 27.3%, EP 13.6% and EPclin 13.6%. CONCLUSION: There are significant changes during the menstrual cycle in the expression of some of the genes and gene module scores comprising the RS, ROR and EP/EPclin scores. These did not affect any of the prognostic scores in a systematic fashion, but there was substantial variability in paired measurements.

A simple digital image analysis system for automated Ki67 assessment in primary breast cancer.

AIMS: Ki67 is a well-established immunohistochemical marker associated with cell proliferation that has prognostic and predictive value in breast cancer. Quantitative evaluation of Ki67 is traditionally performed by assessing stained tissue slides with light microscopy. Automated image analysis systems have become available and, if validated, could provide greater standardisation and improved precision of Ki67 scoring. Here, we aimed to evaluate the use of the Cognition Master Professional Suite (CogM) image analysis software, which is a simple system for scoring Ki67 in primary breast cancer samples. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sections from 94 core-cut biopsies, 20 excision specimens and 29 pairs of core-cut biopsies and excision specimens were stained for Ki67 with MIB1 antibody and the Dako EnVision FLEX Detection System. Stained slides were scanned to convert them to digital data. Computer-based Ki67 scoring was performed with CogM. Manual Ki67 scoring assessment was conducted on previously stained sections from the same biopsies with a clinically validated system that had been calibrated against the risk of recurrence. A high correlation between manual and digital scores was observed [rCores  = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-0.94, P < 0.0001; rExcisions  = 0.95, 95% CI 0.86-0.98, P < 0.0001] and there was no significant bias between them (P = 0.45). There was also a high correlation of Ki67 scores between paired core-cut biopsies and excision specimens when CogM was used (r = 0.78, 95% CI 0.59-0.89, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: CogM image analysis allows for standardised automated Ki67 scoring that accurately replicates previously clinically validated and calibrated manual scores.

Long-term outcome and prognostic value of Ki67 after perioperative endocrine therapy in postmenopausal women with hormone-sensitive early breast cancer (POETIC): an open-label, multicentre, parallel-group, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative and perioperative aromatase inhibitor (POAI) therapy has the potential to improve outcomes in women with operable oestrogen receptor-positive primary breast cancer. It has also been suggested that tumour Ki67 values after 2 weeks (Ki672W) of POAI predicts individual patient outcome better than baseline Ki67 (Ki67B). The POETIC trial aimed to test these two hypotheses. METHODS: POETIC was an open-label, multicentre, parallel-group, randomised, phase 3 trial (done in 130 UK hospitals) in which postmenopausal women aged at least 50 years with WHO performance status 0-1 and hormone receptor-positive, operable breast cancer were randomly assigned (2:1) to POAI (letrozole 2·5 mg per day orally or anastrozole 1 mg per day orally) for 14 days before and following surgery or no POAI (control). Adjuvant treatment was given as per UK standard local practice. Randomisation was done centrally by computer-generated permuted block method (variable block size of six or nine) and was stratified by hospital. Treatment allocation was not masked. The primary endpoint was time to recurrence. A key second objective explored association between Ki67 (dichotomised at 10%) and disease outcomes. The primary analysis for clinical endpoints was by modified intention to treat (excluding patients who withdrew consent). For Ki67 biomarker association and endpoint analysis, the evaluable population included all randomly assigned patients who had paired Ki67 values available. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02338310; the European Clinical Trials database, EudraCT2007-003877-21; and the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN63882543. Recruitment is complete and long-term follow-up is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Oct 13, 2008, and April 16, 2014, 4480 women were recruited and randomly assigned to POAI (n=2976) or control (n=1504). On Feb 6, 2018, median follow-up was 62·9 months (IQR 58·1-74·1). 434 (10%) of 4480 women had a breast cancer recurrence (280 [9%] POAI; 154 [10%] control), hazard ratio 0·92 (95% CI 0·75-1·12); p=0·40 with the proportion free from breast cancer recurrence at 5 years of 91·0% (95% CI 89·9-92·0) for patients in the POAI group and 90·4% (88·7-91·9) in the control group. Within the POAI-treated HER2-negative subpopulation, 5-year recurrence risk in women with low Ki67B and Ki672W (low-low) was 4·3% (95% CI 2·9-6·3), 8·4% (6·8-10·5) with high Ki67B and low Ki672W (high-low) and 21·5% (17·1-27·0) with high Ki67B and Ki672W (high-high). Within the POAI-treated HER2-positive subpopulation, 5-year recurrence risk in the low-low group was 10·1% (95% CI 3·2-31·3), 7·7% (3·4-17·5) in the high-low group, and 15·7% (10·1-24·4) in the high-high group. The most commonly reported grade 3 adverse events were hot flushes (20 [1%] of 2801 patients in the POAI group vs six [<1%] of 1400 in the control group) and musculoskeletal pain (29 [1%] vs 13 [1%]). No treatment-related deaths were reported. INTERPRETATION: POAI has not been shown to improve treatment outcome, but can be used without detriment to help select appropriate adjuvant therapy based on tumour Ki67. Most patients with low Ki67B or low POAI-induced Ki672W do well with adjuvant standard endocrine therapy (giving consideration to clinical-pathological factors), whereas those whose POAI-induced Ki672W remains high might benefit from further adjuvant treatment or trials of new therapies. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Correction to: Combination of mTORC1/2 inhibitor vistusertib plus fulvestrant in vitro and in vivo targets oestrogen receptor-positive endocrine-resistant breast cancer.

After publication of the original article [1], we were notified that an author's surname has been erroneously spelled. Elisabetta Maragoni's family name should be replaced with Marangoni.

20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years.

BACKGROUND: The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment. METHODS: In this meta-analysis of the results of 88 trials involving 62,923 women with ER-positive breast cancer who were disease-free after 5 years of scheduled endocrine therapy, we used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses, stratified according to trial and treatment, to assess the associations of tumor diameter and nodal status (TN), tumor grade, and other factors with patients' outcomes during the period from 5 to 20 years. RESULTS: Breast-cancer recurrences occurred at a steady rate throughout the study period from 5 to 20 years. The risk of distant recurrence was strongly correlated with the original TN status. Among the patients with stage T1 disease, the risk of distant recurrence was 13% with no nodal involvement (T1N0), 20% with one to three nodes involved (T1N1-3), and 34% with four to nine nodes involved (T1N4-9); among those with stage T2 disease, the risks were 19% with T2N0, 26% with T2N1-3, and 41% with T2N4-9. The risk of death from breast cancer was similarly dependent on TN status, but the risk of contralateral breast cancer was not. Given the TN status, the factors of tumor grade (available in 43,590 patients) and Ki-67 status (available in 7692 patients), which are strongly correlated with each other, were of only moderate independent predictive value for distant recurrence, but the status regarding the progesterone receptor (in 54,115 patients) and human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2) (in 15,418 patients in trials with no use of trastuzumab) was not predictive. During the study period from 5 to 20 years, the absolute risk of distant recurrence among patients with T1N0 breast cancer was 10% for low-grade disease, 13% for moderate-grade disease, and 17% for high-grade disease; the corresponding risks of any recurrence or a contralateral breast cancer were 17%, 22%, and 26%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: After 5 years of adjuvant endocrine therapy, breast-cancer recurrences continued to occur steadily throughout the study period from 5 to 20 years. The risk of distant recurrence was strongly correlated with the original TN status, with risks ranging from 10 to 41%, depending on TN status and tumor grade. (Funded by Cancer Research UK and others.).

Combination of mTORC1/2 inhibitor vistusertib plus fulvestrant in vitro and in vivo targets oestrogen receptor-positive endocrine-resistant breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Endocrine therapies are still the main strategy for the treatment of oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers (BC), but resistance remains problematic. Cross-talk between ER and PI3K/AKT/mTORC has been associated with ligand-independent transcription of ER. We have previously reported the anti-proliferative effects of the combination of everolimus (an mTORC1 inhibitor) with endocrine therapy in resistance models, but potential routes of escape via AKT signalling can lead to resistance; therefore, the use of dual mTORC1/2 inhibitors has met with significant interest. METHODS: To address this, we tested the effect of vistusertib, a dual mTORC1 and mTORC2 inhibitor, in a panel of endocrine-resistant and endocrine-sensitive ER+ BC cell lines, with varying PTEN, PIK3CA and ESR1 mutation status. End-points included proliferation, cell signalling, cell cycle and effect on ER-mediated transcription. Two patient-derived xenografts (PDX) modelling endocrine resistance were used to assess the efficacy of vistusertib, fulvestrant or the combination on tumour progression, and biomarker studies were conducted using immunohistochemistry and RNA-seq technologies. RESULTS: Vistusertib caused a dose-dependent decrease in proliferation of all the cell lines tested and reduced abundance of mTORC1, mTORC2 and cell cycle markers, but caused an increase in abundance of EGFR, IGF1R and ERBB3 in a context-dependent manner. ER-mediated transcription showed minimal effect of vistusertib. Combined therapy of vistusertib with fulvestrant showed synergy in two ER+ PDX models of resistance to endocrine therapy and delayed tumour progression after cessation of therapy. CONCLUSIONS: These data support the notion that models of acquired endocrine resistance may have a different sensitivity to mTOR inhibitor/endocrine therapy combinations.

Impact of aromatase inhibitor treatment on global gene expression and its association with antiproliferative response in ER+ breast cancer in postmenopausal patients.

BACKGROUND: Endocrine therapy reduces breast cancer mortality by 40%, but resistance remains a major clinical problem. In this study, we sought to investigate the impact of aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy on gene expression and identify gene modules representing key biological pathways that relate to early AI therapy resistance. METHODS: Global gene expression was measured on pairs of core-cut biopsies taken at baseline and at surgery from 254 patients with ER-positive primary breast cancer randomised to receive 2-week presurgical AI (n = 198) or no presurgical treatment (control n = 56) from the POETIC trial. Data from the AI group was adjusted to eliminate artefactual process-related changes identified in the control group. The response was assessed by changes in the proliferation marker, Ki67. RESULTS: High baseline ESR1 expression associated with better AI response in HER2+ tumours but not HER2- tumours. In HER2- tumours, baseline expression of 48 genes associated with poor antiproliferative response (p < 0.005) including PERP and YWHAQ, the two most significant, and the transcription co-regulators (SAP130, HDAC4, and NCOA7) which were among the top 16 most significant. Baseline gene signature scores measuring cell proliferation, growth factor signalling (ERBB2-GS, RET/GDNF-GS, and IGF-1-GS), and immune activity (STAT1-GS) were significantly higher in poor AI responders. Two weeks of AI caused downregulation of genes involved in cell proliferation and ER signalling, as expected. Signature scores of E2F activation and TP53 dysfunction after 2-week AI were associated with poor AI response in both HER2- and HER2+ patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high degree of heterogeneity in adaptive mechanisms after as little as 2-week AI therapy; however, all appear to converge on cell cycle regulation. Our data support the evaluation of whether an E2F signatures after short-term exposure to AI may identify those patients most likely to benefit from the early addition of CDK4/6 inhibitors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ISRCTN63882543, registered on 18 December 2007.

Molecular characterisation of aromatase inhibitor-resistant advanced breast cancer: the phenotypic effect of ESR1 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Several thousand breast cancer patients develop resistance to aromatase inhibitors (AIs) each year in the UK. Rational treatment requires an improved molecular characterisation of resistant disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The mutational landscape of 198 regions in 16 key breast cancer genes and RNA expression of 209 genes covering key pathways was evaluated in paired biopsies before AI treatment and at progression on AI from 48 patients. Validity of findings was assessed in another five ESR1-mutated tumours progressing on AI. RESULTS: Eighty-nine mutations were identified in 41 matched pairs (PIK3CA in 27%; CDH1 in 20%). ESR1 (n = 5), ERBB2 (n = 1) and MAP2K4 (n = 1) had mutations in the secondary sample only. There was very high heterogeneity in gene expression between AI-resistant tumours with few patterns apparent. However, in the ESR1-mutated AI-resistant tumours, expression of four classical oestrogen-regulated genes (ERGs) was sevenfold higher than in ESR1 wild-type tumours, a finding confirmed in the second set of ESR1-mutated tumours. In ESR1 wild-type AI-resistant tumours ERG expression remained suppressed and was uncoupled from the recovery seen in proliferation. CONCLUSIONS: Major genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity exists between AI-resistant disease. ESR1 mutations appear to drive oestrogen-regulated processes in resistant tumours.

Comparison of protein expression between formalin-fixed core-cut biopsies and surgical excision specimens using a novel multiplex approach.

PURPOSE: We evaluated whether multiplex protein quantification using antibody bar-coding with photocleavable oligonucleotides (NanoString) can be applied to evaluate protein expression in breast cancer FFPE specimens. We also assessed whether diagnostic core-cuts fixed immediately at time of procedures and surgical excision sections from routinely fixed breast cancers are affected by the same fixation related differences noted using immunohistochemistry (IHC). METHODS: The expression of 26 proteins was analysed using NanoString technology in 16 pairs of FFPE breast cancer core-cuts and surgical excisions. The measurements yielded were compared with those by IHC on Ki67, PgR and HER2 biomarkers and pAKT and pERK1/2 phosphorylated proteins. RESULTS: When considered irrespective of sample type, expression measured by the two methods was strongly correlated for all markers (p < 0.001; ρ = 0.69-0.88). When core-cuts and excisions were evaluated separately, the correlations between NanoString and IHC were weaker but significant except for pAKT in excisions. Surgical excisions showed lower levels of 8/12 phosphoproteins and higher levels of 4/13 non-phosphorylated proteins in comparison to core-cuts (p < 0.01). Reduced p4EBP1, pAMPKa, pRPS6 and pRAF1 immunogenicity in excisions was correlated with tumour size and mastectomy specimens showed lower p4EBP1 and pRPS6 expression than lumpectomy (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the validity of the new multiplex approach to protein analysis but indicates that, as with IHC, caution is necessary for the analysis in excisions particularly of phosphoproteins. The specimen type, tumour size and surgery type may lead to biases in the quantitative analysis of many proteins of biologic and clinical interest in excision specimens.

Combined quantitative measures of ER, PR, HER2, and KI67 provide more prognostic information than categorical combinations in luminal breast cancer.

Although most women with luminal breast cancer do well on endocrine therapy alone, some will develop fatal recurrence thereby necessitating the need to prospectively determine those for whom additional cytotoxic therapy will be beneficial. Categorical combinations of immunohistochemical measures of ER, PR, HER2, and KI67 are traditionally used to classify patients into luminal A-like and B-like subtypes for chemotherapeutic reasons, but this may lead to the loss of prognostically relevant information. Here, we compared the prognostic value of quantitative measures of these markers, combined in the IHC4-score, to categorical combinations in subtypes. Using image analysis-based scores for all four markers, we computed the IHC4-score for 2498 patients with luminal breast cancer from two European study populations. We defined subtypes (A-like (ER + and PR + : and HER2- and low KI67) and B-like (ER + and/or PR + : and HER2 + or high KI67)) by combining binary categories of these markers. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations with 10-year breast cancer-specific survival were estimated in Cox proportional-hazard models. We accounted for clinical prognostic factors, including grade, tumor size, lymph-nodal involvement, and age, by using the PREDICT-score. Overall, Subtypes [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) B-like vs. A-like = 1.64 (1.25-2.14); P-value < 0.001] and IHC4-score [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval)/1 standard deviation = 1.32 (1.20-1.44); P-value < 0.001] were prognostic in univariable models. However, IHC4-score [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval)/1 standard deviation = 1.24 (1.11-1.37); P-value < 0.001; likelihood ratio chi-square (LRχ2) = 12.5] provided more prognostic information than Subtype [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) B-like vs. A-like = 1.38 (1.02-1.88); P-value = 0.04; LRχ2 = 4.3] in multivariable models. Further, higher values of the IHC4-score were associated with worse prognosis, regardless of subtype (P-heterogeneity = 0.97). These findings enhance the value of the IHC4-score as an adjunct to clinical prognostication tools for aiding chemotherapy decision-making in luminal breast cancer patients, irrespective of subtype.

An international multicenter study to evaluate reproducibility of automated scoring for assessment of Ki67 in breast cancer.

The nuclear proliferation biomarker Ki67 has potential prognostic, predictive, and monitoring roles in breast cancer. Unacceptable between-laboratory variability has limited its clinical value. The International Ki67 in Breast Cancer Working Group investigated whether Ki67 immunohistochemistry can be analytically validated and standardized across laboratories using automated machine-based scoring. Sets of pre-stained core-cut biopsy sections of 30 breast tumors were circulated to 14 laboratories for scanning and automated assessment of the average and maximum percentage of tumor cells positive for Ki67. Seven unique scanners and 10 software platforms were involved in this study. Pre-specified analyses included evaluation of reproducibility between all laboratories (primary) as well as among those using scanners from a single vendor (secondary). The primary reproducibility metric was intraclass correlation coefficient between laboratories, with success considered to be intraclass correlation coefficient >0.80. Intraclass correlation coefficient for automated average scores across 16 operators was 0.83 (95% credible interval: 0.73-0.91) and intraclass correlation coefficient for maximum scores across 10 operators was 0.63 (95% credible interval: 0.44-0.80). For the laboratories using scanners from a single vendor (8 score sets), intraclass correlation coefficient for average automated scores was 0.89 (95% credible interval: 0.81-0.96), which was similar to the intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.87 (95% credible interval: 0.81-0.93) achieved using these same slides in a prior visual-reading reproducibility study. Automated machine assessment of average Ki67 has the potential to achieve between-laboratory reproducibility similar to that for a rigorously standardized pathologist-based visual assessment of Ki67. The observed intraclass correlation coefficient was worse for maximum compared to average scoring methods, suggesting that maximum score methods may be suboptimal for consistent measurement of proliferation. Automated average scoring methods show promise for assessment of Ki67 scoring, but requires further standardization and subsequent clinical validation.

Analytical validation of a standardised scoring protocol for Ki67 immunohistochemistry on breast cancer excision whole sections: an international multicentre collaboration.

AIMS: The nuclear proliferation marker Ki67 assayed by immunohistochemistry has multiple potential uses in breast cancer, but an unacceptable level of interlaboratory variability has hampered its clinical utility. The International Ki67 in Breast Cancer Working Group has undertaken a systematic programme to determine whether Ki67 measurement can be analytically validated and standardised among laboratories. This study addresses whether acceptable scoring reproducibility can be achieved on excision whole sections. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adjacent sections from 30 primary ER+ breast cancers were centrally stained for Ki67 and sections were circulated among 23 pathologists in 12 countries. All pathologists scored Ki67 by two methods: (i) global: four fields of 100 tumour cells each were selected to reflect observed heterogeneity in nuclear staining; (ii) hot-spot: the field with highest apparent Ki67 index was selected and up to 500 cells scored. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the global method [confidence interval (CI) = 0.87; 95% CI = 0.799-0.93] marginally met the prespecified success criterion (lower 95% CI ≥ 0.8), while the ICC for the hot-spot method (0.83; 95% CI = 0.74-0.90) did not. Visually, interobserver concordance in location of selected hot-spots varies between cases. The median times for scoring were 9 and 6 min for global and hot-spot methods, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The global scoring method demonstrates adequate reproducibility to warrant next steps towards evaluation for technical and clinical validity in appropriate cohorts of cases. The time taken for scoring by either method is practical using counting software we are making publicly available. Establishment of external quality assessment schemes is likely to improve the reproducibility between laboratories further.

Novel 18-gene signature for predicting relapse in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic signatures for early oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer have been established with a 10-year follow-up. We tested the hypothesis that signatures optimised for 0-5-year and 5-10-year follow-up separately are more prognostic than a single signature optimised for 10 years. METHODS: Genes previously identified as prognostic or associated with endocrine resistance were tested in publicly available microarray data set using Cox regression of 747 ER+/HER2- samples from post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of endocrine therapy. RNA expression of the selected genes was assayed in primary ER+/HER2- tumours from 948 post-menopausal patients treated with 5 years of anastrozole or tamoxifen in the TransATAC cohort. Prognostic signatures for 0-10, 0-5 and 5-10 years were derived using a penalised Cox regression (elastic net). Signature comparison was performed with likelihood ratio statistics. Validation was done by a case-control (POLAR) study in 422 samples derived from a cohort of 1449. RESULTS: Ninety-three genes were selected by the modelling of microarray data; 63 of these were significantly prognostic in TransATAC, most similarly across each time period. Contrary to our hypothesis, the derived early and late signatures were not significantly more prognostic than the 18-gene 10-year signature. The 18-gene 10-year signature was internally validated in the TransATAC validation set, showing prognostic information similar to that of Oncotype DX Recurrence Score, PAM50 risk of recurrence score, Breast Cancer Index and IHC4 (score based on four IHC markers), as well as in the external POLAR case-control set. CONCLUSIONS: The derived 10-year signature predicts risk of metastasis in patients with ER+/HER2- breast cancer similar to commercial signatures. The hypothesis that early and late prognostic signatures are significantly more informative than a single signature was rejected.