Causation and familial confounding as explanations for the associations of polygenic risk scores with breast cancer: Evidence from innovative ICE FALCON and ICE CRISTAL analyses.

A polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the associations of multiple genetic variants that could be due to direct causal effects, indirect genetic effects, or other sources of familial confounding. We have developed new approaches to assess evidence for and against causation by using family data for pairs of relatives (Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding [ICE FALCON]) or measures of family history (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLyses [ICE CRISTAL]). Inference is made from the changes in regression coefficients of relatives' PRSs or PRS and family history before and after adjusting for each other. We applied these approaches to two breast cancer PRSs and multiple studies and found that (a) for breast cancer diagnosed at a young age, for example, <50 years, there was no evidence that the PRSs were causal, while (b) for breast cancer diagnosed at later ages, there was consistent evidence for causation explaining increasing amounts of the PRS-disease association. The genetic variants in the PRS might be in linkage disequilibrium with truly causal variants and not causal themselves. These PRSs cause minimal heritability of breast cancer at younger ages. There is also evidence for nongenetic factors shared by first-degree relatives that explain breast cancer familial aggregation. Familial associations are not necessarily due to genes, and genetic associations are not necessarily causal.

Breast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies.

Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.

Update of penetrance estimates in Birt-Hogg-Dubé syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Birt-Hogg-Dubé (BHD) syndrome is a rare genetic syndrome caused by pathogenic or likely pathogenic germline variants in the FLCN gene. Patients with BHD syndrome have an increased risk of fibrofolliculomas, pulmonary cysts, pneumothorax and renal cell carcinoma. There is debate regarding whether colonic polyps should be added to the criteria. Previous risk estimates have mostly been based on small clinical case series. METHODS: A comprehensive review was conducted to identify studies that had recruited families carrying pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in FLCN. Pedigree data were requested from these studies and pooled. Segregation analysis was used to estimate the cumulative risk of each manifestation for carriers of FLCN pathogenic variants. RESULTS: Our final dataset contained 204 families that were informative for at least one manifestation of BHD (67 families informative for skin manifestations, 63 for lung, 88 for renal carcinoma and 29 for polyps). By age 70 years, male carriers of the FLCN variant have an estimated 19% (95% CI 12% to 31%) risk of renal tumours, 87% (95% CI 80% to 92%) of lung involvement and 87% (95% CI 78% to 93%) of skin lesions, while female carriers had an estimated 21% (95% CI 13% to 32%) risk of renal tumours, 82% (95% CI 73% to 88%) of lung involvement and 78% (95% CI 67% to 85%) of skin lesions. The cumulative risk of colonic polyps by age 70 years old was 21% (95% CI 8% to 45%) for male carriers and 32% (95% CI 16% to 53%) for female carriers. CONCLUSIONS: These updated penetrance estimates, based on a large number of families, are important for the genetic counselling and clinical management of BHD syndrome.

Germline CDH1 Variants and Lifetime Cancer Risk.

Importance: Approximately 1% to 3% of gastric cancers and 5% of lobular breast cancers are hereditary. Loss of function CDH1 gene variants are the most common gene variants associated with hereditary diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. Previously, the lifetime risk of gastric cancer was estimated to be approximately 25% to 83% and for breast cancer it was estimated to be approximately 39% to 55% in individuals with loss of function CDH1 gene variants. Objective: To describe gastric and breast cancer risk estimates for individuals with CDH1 variants. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, retrospective cohort and modeling study of 213 families from North America with a CDH1 pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variant in 1 or more family members conducted between January 2021 and August 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HRs), defined as risk in variant carriers relative to noncarriers, were estimated for each cancer type and used to calculate cumulative risks and risks per decade of life up to age 80 years. Results: A total of 7323 individuals from 213 families were studied, including 883 with a CDH1 P/LP variant (median proband age, 53 years [IQR, 42-62]; 4% Asian; 4% Hispanic; 85% non-Hispanic White; 50% female). In individuals with a CDH1 P/LP variant, the prevalence of gastric cancer was 13.9% (123/883) and the prevalence of breast cancer among female carriers was 26.3% (144/547). The estimated HR for advanced gastric cancer was 33.5 (95% CI, 9.8-112) at age 30 years and 3.5 (95% CI, 0.4-30.3) at age 70 years. The lifetime cumulative risk of advanced gastric cancer in male and female carriers was 10.3% (95% CI, 6%-23.6%) and 6.5% (95% CI, 3.8%-15.1%), respectively. Gastric cancer risk estimates based on family history indicated that a carrier with 3 affected first-degree relatives had a penetrance of approximately 38% (95% CI, 25%-64%). The HR for breast cancer among female carriers was 5.7 (95% CI, 2.5-13.2) at age 30 years and 3.9 (95% CI, 1.1-13.7) at age 70 years. The lifetime cumulative risk of breast cancer among female carriers was 36.8% (95% CI, 25.7%-62.9%). Conclusions and Relevance: Among families from North America with germline CDH1 P/LP variants, the cumulative risk of gastric cancer was 7% to 10%, which was lower than previously described, and the cumulative risk of breast cancer among female carriers was 37%, which was similar to prior estimates. These findings inform current management of individuals with germline CDH1 variants.

Causal relationships between breast cancer risk factors based on mammographic features.

BACKGROUND: Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology. METHODS: We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40-70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method. RESULTS: The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other (r = 0.22-0.81; all P < 0.005). We estimated that 28-92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways.

Psychiatric genetic counseling: A survey of Australian genetic counselors' practice and attitudes.

Genetic counseling plays a critical role in supporting individuals and their families' adaption to psychiatric conditions, addressing the multifactorial nature of these conditions in a personally meaningful and empowering way. Yet data related to the practice and attitudes of Australian genetic counselors about psychiatric genetic counseling (PGC) is limited. This survey investigated the practice of Australian genetic counselors, and their attitudes toward PGC. Genetic counselors (N = 393) were invited to participate in an anonymous online survey between March and May 2022. Forty-four genetic counselors (response rate = 11%) from Australia and New Zealand responded. No respondents practice in psychiatric genetics as their speciality area; most respondents do not see any patients where the primary indication is a personal and/or family history of psychiatric disorders (91%). Greater than half of respondents (56%) believed there was sufficient evidence to support PGC, and 64% enquire about personal and/or family history of psychiatric disorders, but only 25% provide genetic counseling on this topic. Most respondents do not feel confident providing risk assessments for psychiatric disorders (72%), while the majority expressed interest in attending specialist training (95%), and in incorporating PGC into future practice (77%). Australian genetic counselors would benefit from psychiatric genetic education and training, and establishment of specialized PGC services would address this gap in patient care, while providing opportunities for genetic counselors to gain skills and experience in PGC.

Population-based estimates of age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer for pathogenic variants in ATM.

BACKGROUND: Multigene panel tests for breast cancer predisposition routinely include ATM as it is now a well-established breast cancer predisposition gene. METHODS: We included ATM in a multigene panel test applied to the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry (ABCFR), a population-based case-control-family study of breast cancer, with the purpose of estimating the prevalence and penetrance of heterozygous ATM pathogenic variants from the family data, using segregation analysis. RESULTS: The estimated breast cancer hazard ratio for carriers of pathogenic ATM variants in the ABCFR was 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.45-3.87; P = 0.6). The estimated cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 80 years for heterozygous ATM pathogenic variant carriers was estimated to be 13% (95% CI 4.6-30). CONCLUSIONS: Although ATM has been definitively identified as a breast cancer predisposition gene, further evidence, such as variant-specific penetrance estimates, are needed to inform risk management strategies for carriers of pathogenic variants to increase the clinical utility of population testing of this gene.

Colorectal cancer incidences in Lynch syndrome: a comparison of results from the prospective lynch syndrome database and the international mismatch repair consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To compare colorectal cancer (CRC) incidences in carriers of pathogenic variants of the MMR genes in the PLSD and IMRC cohorts, of which only the former included mandatory colonoscopy surveillance for all participants. METHODS: CRC incidences were calculated in an intervention group comprising a cohort of confirmed carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in mismatch repair genes (path_MMR) followed prospectively by the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD). All had colonoscopy surveillance, with polypectomy when polyps were identified. Comparison was made with a retrospective cohort reported by the International Mismatch Repair Consortium (IMRC). This comprised confirmed and inferred path_MMR carriers who were first- or second-degree relatives of Lynch syndrome probands. RESULTS: In the PLSD, 8,153 subjects had follow-up colonoscopy surveillance for a total of 67,604 years and 578 carriers had CRC diagnosed. Average cumulative incidences of CRC in path_MLH1 carriers at 70 years of age were 52% in males and 41% in females; for path_MSH2 50% and 39%; for path_MSH6 13% and 17% and for path_PMS2 11% and 8%. In contrast, in the IMRC cohort, corresponding cumulative incidences were 40% and 27%; 34% and 23%; 16% and 8% and 7% and 6%. Comparing just the European carriers in the two series gave similar findings. Numbers in the PLSD series did not allow comparisons of carriers from other continents separately. Cumulative incidences at 25 years were < 1% in all retrospective groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prospectively observed CRC incidences (PLSD) in path_MLH1 and path_MSH2 carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance and polypectomy were higher than in the retrospective (IMRC) series, and were not reduced in path_MSH6 carriers. These findings were the opposite to those expected. CRC point incidence before 50 years of age was reduced in path_PMS2 carriers subjected to colonoscopy, but not significantly so.

Novel mammogram-based measures improve breast cancer risk prediction beyond an established mammographic density measure.

Mammograms contain information that predicts breast cancer risk. We developed two novel mammogram-based breast cancer risk measures based on image brightness (Cirrocumulus) and texture (Cirrus). Their risk prediction when fitted together, and with an established measure of conventional mammographic density (Cumulus), is not known. We used three studies consisting of: 168 interval cases and 498 matched controls; 422 screen-detected cases and 1197 matched controls; and 354 younger-diagnosis cases and 944 controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We conducted conditional and unconditional logistic regression analyses of individually- and frequency-matched studies, respectively. We estimated measure-specific risk gradients as the change in odds per standard deviation of controls after adjusting for age and body mass index (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). For interval, screen-detected and younger-diagnosis cancer risks, the best fitting models (OPERAs [95% confidence intervals]) involved: Cumulus (1.81 [1.41-2.31]) and Cirrus (1.72 [1.38-2.14]); Cirrus (1.49 [1.32-1.67]) and Cirrocumulus (1.16 [1.03 to 1.31]); and Cirrus (1.70 [1.48 to 1.94]) and Cirrocumulus (1.46 [1.27-1.68]), respectively. The AUCs were: 0.73 [0.68-0.77], 0.63 [0.60-0.66], and 0.72 [0.69-0.75], respectively. Combined, our new mammogram-based measures have twice the risk gradient for screen-detected and younger-diagnosis breast cancer (P ≤ 10-12 ), have at least the same discriminatory power as the current polygenic risk score, and are more correlated with causal factors than conventional mammographic density. Discovering more information about breast cancer risk from mammograms could help enable risk-based personalised breast screening.

VTRNA2-1: Genetic Variation, Heritable Methylation and Disease Association.

VTRNA2-1 is a metastable epiallele with accumulating evidence that methylation at this region is heritable, modifiable and associated with disease including risk and progression of cancer. This study investigated the influence of genetic variation and other factors such as age and adult lifestyle on blood DNA methylation in this region. We first sequenced the VTRNA2-1 gene region in multiple-case breast cancer families in which VTRNA2-1 methylation was identified as heritable and associated with breast cancer risk. Methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL) were investigated using a prospective cohort study (4500 participants with genotyping and methylation data). The cis-mQTL analysis (334 variants ± 50 kb of the most heritable CpG site) identified 43 variants associated with VTRNA2-1 methylation (p < 1.5 × 10-4); however, these explained little of the methylation variation (R2 < 0.5% for each of these variants). No genetic variants elsewhere in the genome were found to strongly influence VTRNA2-1 methylation. SNP-based heritability estimates were consistent with the mQTL findings (h2 = 0, 95%CI: -0.14 to 0.14). We found no evidence that age, sex, country of birth, smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption or diet influenced blood DNA methylation at VTRNA2-1. Genetic factors and adult lifestyle play a minimal role in explaining methylation variability at the heritable VTRNA2-1 cluster.

Mortality after breast cancer as a function of time since diagnosis by estrogen receptor status and age at diagnosis.

Our aim was to estimate how long-term mortality following breast cancer diagnosis depends on age at diagnosis, tumor estrogen receptor (ER) status, and the time already survived. We used the population-based Australian Breast Cancer Family Study which followed-up 1,196 women enrolled during 1992-1999 when aged <60 years at diagnosis with a first primary invasive breast cancer, over-sampled for younger ages at diagnosis, for whom tumor pathology features and ER status were measured. There were 375 deaths (median follow-up = 15.7; range = 0.8-21.4, years). We estimated the mortality hazard as a function of time since diagnosis using a flexible parametric survival analysis with ER status a time-dependent covariate. For women with ER-negative tumors compared with those with ER-positive tumors, 5-year mortality was initially higher (p < 0.001), similar if they survived to 5 years (p = 0.4), and lower if they survived to 10 years (p = 0.02). The estimated mortality hazard for ER-negative disease peaked at ~3 years post-diagnosis, thereafter declined with time, and at 7 years post-diagnosis became lower than that for ER-positive disease. This pattern was more pronounced for women diagnosed at younger ages. Mortality was also associated with lymph node count (hazard ratio (HR) per 10 nodes = 2.52 [95% CI:2.11-3.01]) and tumor grade (HR per grade = 1.62 [95% CI:1.34-1.96]). The risk of death following a breast cancer diagnosis differs substantially and qualitatively with diagnosis age, ER status and time survived. For women who survive >7 years, those with ER-negative disease will on average live longer, and more so if younger at diagnosis.

Heritable methylation marks associated with breast and prostate cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation can mimic the effects of germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes. Recently, we identified twenty-four heritable methylation marks associated with breast cancer risk. As breast and prostate cancer share genetic risk factors, including rare, high-risk mutations (eg, in BRCA2), we hypothesized that some of these heritable methylation marks might also be associated with the risk of prostate cancer. METHODS: We studied 869 incident prostate cancers (430 aggressive and 439 non-aggressive) and 869 matched controls nested within a prospective cohort study. DNA methylation was measured in pre-diagnostic blood samples using the Illumina Infinium HM450K BeadChip. Conditional logistic regression models, adjusted for prostate cancer risk factors and blood cell composition, were used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between the 24 methylation marks and the risk of prostate cancer. RESULTS: Five methylation marks within the VTRNA2-1 promoter region (cg06536614, cg00124993, cg26328633, cg25340688, and cg26896946), and one in the body of CLGN (cg22901919) were associated with the risk of prostate cancer. In stratified analyses, the five VTRNA2-1 marks were associated with the risk of aggressive prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights a potentially important new area of investigation for prostate cancer susceptibility and adds to our knowledge about shared risk factors for breast and prostate cancer.

Genome-wide DNA methylation assessment of 'BRCA1-like' early-onset breast cancer: Data from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry.

Breast cancers arising in women carrying a germline mutation in BRCA1 are typically high-grade, early-onset and have distinct morphological features (BRCA1-like). However, the majority of early-onset breast cancers of this morphological type are not associated with germline BRCA1 mutations or constitutional BRCA1 promoter methylation. We aimed to assess DNA methylation across the genome for associations with the "BRCA1-like" morphology. Genome-wide methylation in blood-derived DNA was measured using the Infinium HumanMethylation450K BeadChip assay for women under the age of 40 years participating in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS) diagnosed with: i) BRCA1-like breast cancer (n = 30); and ii) breast cancer without BRCA1-like morphological features (non BRCA1-like; n = 30), and age-matched unaffected women (controls; n = 30). Corresponding tumour-derived DNA from 43 of the affected women was also assessed. Methylation of blood-derived DNA was found to be elevated across 17 consecutive marks in the BRCA1 promoter region and decreased at several other genomic regions (including TWIST2 and CTBP1) for 7 women (23%) diagnosed with BRCA1-like breast cancer compared with women in the other groups. Corresponding tumour-derived DNA available from 5 of these 7 women had elevated methylation within the BRCA1 and SPHK2 promoter region and decreased methylation within the ADAP1, IGF2BP3 and SPATA13 promoter region when compared with the other breast tumours. These methylation marks could be biomarkers of risk for BRCA1-like breast cancer, and could be responsible in part for their distinctive morphological features and biology. As such, they may assist with prevention and targeted therapies for this cancer subtype.

Testing for Gene-Environment Interactions Using a Prospective Family Cohort Design: Body Mass Index in Early and Later Adulthood and Risk of Breast Cancer.

The ability to classify people according to their underlying genetic susceptibility to a disease is increasing with new knowledge, better family data, and more sophisticated risk prediction models, allowing for more effective prevention and screening. To do so, however, we need to know whether risk associations are the same for people with different genetic susceptibilities. To illustrate one way to estimate such gene-environment interactions, we used prospective data from 3 Australian family cancer cohort studies, 2 enriched for familial risk of breast cancer. There were 288 incident breast cancers in 9,126 participants from 3,222 families. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate whether associations of breast cancer with body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) at age 18-21 years, BMI at baseline, and change in BMI differed according to genetic risk based on lifetime breast cancer risk from birth, as estimated by BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) software, adjusted for age at baseline data collection. Although no interactions were statistically significant, we have demonstrated the power with which gene-environment interactions can be investigated using a cohort enriched for persons with increased genetic risk and a continuous measure of genetic risk based on family history.

Genome-Wide Measures of Peripheral Blood Dna Methylation and Prostate Cancer Risk in a Prospective Nested Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Global measures of peripheral blood DNA methylation have been associated with risk of some malignancies, including breast, bladder, and gastric cancer. Here, we examined genome-wide measures of peripheral blood DNA methylation in prostate cancer and its non-aggressive and aggressive disease forms. METHODS: We used a matched, case-control study of 687 incident prostate cancer samples, nested within a larger prospective cohort study. DNA methylation was measured in pre-diagnostic, peripheral blood samples using the Illumina Infinium HM450K BeadChip. Genome-wide measures of DNA methylation were computed as the median M-value of all CpG sites and according to CpG site location and regulatory function. We used conditional logistic regression to test for associations between genome-wide measures of DNA methylation and risk of prostate cancer and its subtypes, and by time between blood draw and diagnosis. RESULTS: We observed no associations between the genome-wide measure of DNA methylation based on all CpG sites and risk of prostate cancer or aggressive disease. Risk of non-aggressive disease was associated with higher methylation of CpG islands (OR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.68-0.94), promoter regions (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.66-0.93), and high density CpG regions (OR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.68-0.94). Additionally, higher methylation of all CpGs (OR = 0.66; 95%CI = 0.48-0.89), CpG shores (OR = 0.62; 95%CI = 0.45-0.84), and regulatory regions (OR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.51-0.91) was associated with a reduced risk of overall prostate cancer within 5 years of blood draw but not thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: A reduced risk of overall prostate cancer within 5 years of blood draw and non-aggressive prostate cancer was associated with higher genome-wide methylation of peripheral blood DNA. While these data have no immediate clinical utility, with further work they may provide insight into the early events of prostate carcinogenesis. Prostate 77:471-478, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM rare variants and cancer risk: data from COGS.

BACKGROUND: The rarity of mutations in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM make it difficult to estimate precisely associated cancer risks. Population-based family studies have provided evidence that at least some of these mutations are associated with breast cancer risk as high as those associated with rare BRCA2 mutations. We aimed to estimate the relative risks associated with specific rare variants in PALB2, CHEK2 and ATM via a multicentre case-control study. METHODS: We genotyped 10 rare mutations using the custom iCOGS array: PALB2 c.1592delT, c.2816T>G and c.3113G>A, CHEK2 c.349A>G, c.538C>T, c.715G>A, c.1036C>T, c.1312G>T, and c.1343T>G and ATM c.7271T>G. We assessed associations with breast cancer risk (42 671 cases and 42 164 controls), as well as prostate (22 301 cases and 22 320 controls) and ovarian (14 542 cases and 23 491 controls) cancer risk, for each variant. RESULTS: For European women, strong evidence of association with breast cancer risk was observed for PALB2 c.1592delT OR 3.44 (95% CI 1.39 to 8.52, p=7.1×10-5), PALB2 c.3113G>A OR 4.21 (95% CI 1.84 to 9.60, p=6.9×10-8) and ATM c.7271T>G OR 11.0 (95% CI 1.42 to 85.7, p=0.0012). We also found evidence of association with breast cancer risk for three variants in CHEK2, c.349A>G OR 2.26 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.95), c.1036C>T OR 5.06 (95% CI 1.09 to 23.5) and c.538C>T OR 1.33 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.67) (p≤0.017). Evidence for prostate cancer risk was observed for CHEK2 c.1343T>G OR 3.03 (95% CI 1.53 to 6.03, p=0.0006) for African men and CHEK2 c.1312G>T OR 2.21 (95% CI 1.06 to 4.63, p=0.030) for European men. No evidence of association with ovarian cancer was found for any of these variants. CONCLUSIONS: This report adds to accumulating evidence that at least some variants in these genes are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer that is clinically important.

The CRISP colorectal cancer risk prediction tool: an exploratory study using simulated consultations in Australian primary care.

BACKGROUND: In Australia, screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) with colonoscopy is meant to be reserved for people at increased risk, however, currently there is a mismatch between individuals' risk of CRC and the type of CRC screening they receive. This paper describes the development and optimisation of a Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction tool ('CRISP') for use in primary care. The aim of the CRISP tool is to increase risk-appropriate CRC screening. METHODS: CRISP development was informed by previous experience with developing risk tools for use in primary care and a systematic review of the evidence. A CRISP prototype was used in simulated consultations by general practitioners (GPs) with actors as patients. GPs were interviewed to explore their experience of using CRISP, and practice nurses (PNs) and practice managers (PMs) were interviewed after a demonstration of CRISP. Transcribed interviews and video footage of the 'consultations' were qualitatively analyzed. Themes arising from the data were mapped onto Normalization Process Theory (NPT). RESULTS: Fourteen GPs, nine PNs and six PMs were recruited from 12 clinics. Results were described using the four constructs of NPT: 1) Coherence: Clinicians understood the rationale behind CRISP, particularly since they were familiar with using risk tools for other conditions; 2) Cognitive participation: GPs welcomed the opportunity CRISP provided to discuss healthy and unhealthy behaviors with their patients, but many GPs challenged the screening recommendation generated by CRISP; 3) Collective Action: CRISP disrupted clinician-patient flow if the GP was less comfortable with computers. GP consultation time was a major implementation barrier and overall consensus was that PNs have more capacity and time to use CRISP effectively; 4) Reflexive monitoring: Limited systematic monitoring of new interventions is a potential barrier to the sustainable embedding of CRISP. CONCLUSIONS: CRISP has the potential to improve risk-appropriate CRC screening in primary care but was considered more likely to be successfully implemented as a nurse-led intervention.

Risk of extracolonic cancers for people with biallelic and monoallelic mutations in MUTYH.

Germline mutations in the DNA base excision repair gene MUTYH are known to increase a carrier's risk of colorectal cancer. However, the risks of other (extracolonic) cancers for MUTYH mutation carriers are not well defined. We identified 266 probands (91% Caucasians) with a MUTYH mutation (41 biallelic and 225 monoallelic) from the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Mutation status, sex, age and histories of cancer from their 1,903 first- and 3,255 second-degree relatives were analyzed using modified segregation analysis conditioned on the ascertainment criteria. Compared with incidences for the general population, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for biallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: urinary bladder cancer 19 (3.7-97) and ovarian cancer 17 (2.4-115). The HRs (95% CI) for monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 9.3 (6.7-13); hepatobiliary cancer 4.5 (2.7-7.5); endometrial cancer 2.1 (1.1-3.9) and breast cancer 1.4 (1.0-2.0). There was no evidence for an increased risk of cancers at the other sites examined (brain, pancreas, kidney or prostate). Based on the USA population incidences, the estimated cumulative risks (95% CI) to age 70 years for biallelic mutation carriers were: bladder cancer 25% (5-77%) for males and 8% (2-33%) for females and ovarian cancer 14% (2-65%). The cumulative risks (95% CI) for monoallelic mutation carriers were: gastric cancer 5% (4-7%) for males and 2.3% (1.7-3.3%) for females; hepatobiliary cancer 3% (2-5%) for males and 1.4% (0.8-2.3%) for females; endometrial cancer 3% (2%-6%) and breast cancer 11% (8-16%). These unbiased estimates of both relative and absolute risks of extracolonic cancers for people, mostly Caucasians, with MUTYH mutations will be important for their clinical management.

Quantifying the utility of single nucleotide polymorphisms to guide colorectal cancer screening.

AIM: To determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can be used to identify people who should be screened for colorectal cancer. METHODS: We simulated one million people with and without colorectal cancer based on published SNP allele frequencies and strengths of colorectal cancer association. We estimated 5-year risks of colorectal cancer by number of risk alleles. RESULTS: We identified 45 SNPs with an average 1.14-fold increase colorectal cancer risk per allele (range: 1.05-1.53). The colorectal cancer risk for people in the highest quintile of risk alleles was 1.81-times that for the average person. CONCLUSION: We have quantified the extent to which known susceptibility SNPs can stratify the population into clinically useful colorectal cancer risk categories.

Role of tumour molecular and pathology features to estimate colorectal cancer risk for first-degree relatives.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) for first-degree relatives of CRC cases based on CRC molecular subtypes and tumour pathology features. DESIGN: We studied a cohort of 33,496 first-degree relatives of 4853 incident invasive CRC cases (probands) who were recruited to the Colon Cancer Family Registry through population cancer registries in the USA, Canada and Australia. We categorised the first-degree relatives into four groups: 28,156 of 4095 mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient probands, 2302 of 301 MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome probands, 1799 of 271 suspected Lynch syndrome probands and 1239 of 186 Lynch syndrome probands. We compared CRC risk for first-degree relatives stratified by the absence or presence of specific tumour molecular pathology features in probands across each of these four groups and for all groups combined. RESULTS: Compared with first-degree relatives of MMR-proficient CRC cases, a higher risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives of CRC cases with suspected Lynch syndrome (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.67) and with Lynch syndrome (HR 5.37, 95% CI 4.16 to 6.94), but not with MMR-deficient non-Lynch syndrome (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.31). A greater risk of CRC was estimated for first-degree relatives if CRC cases were diagnosed before age 50 years, had proximal colon cancer or if their tumours had any of the following: expanding tumour margin, peritumoral lymphocytes, tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes or synchronous CRC. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular pathology features are potentially useful to refine screening recommendations for first-degree relatives of CRC cases and to identify which cases are more likely to be caused by genetic or other familial factors.