Mitigating climate disruption in time: A self-consistent approach for avoiding both near-term and long-term global warming.

The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption.

Trifluoroiodomethane as a Precursor to High Global Warming Potential Climate Pollutants: Could the Transformation of Climatically Benign CF3I into Potent Greenhouse Gases Significantly Increase Refrigerant-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

The transition away from the production and consumption of high global warming potential (GWP) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) has prompted air conditioning, refrigeration, and heat pump equipment manufacturers to seek alternative refrigerants with lower direct climate impacts. Additional factors affecting alternative refrigerant choice include safety (i.e., flammability and toxicity), environmental, and thermodynamic constraints. At the same time, manufacturers are incentivized to seek refrigerants with higher energy efficiency, which saves on electricity costs and reduces indirect greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. The life cycle climate performance (LCCP) metric is commonly used to assess the combined direct and indirect climate impacts of refrigerant-use equipment. Here, we consider an additional impact on climate performance: the degradation of refrigerant in equipment, i.e., the direct climate impacts of high-GWP byproducts that can form as the result of adding trifluoroiodomethane (CF3I) to refrigerant blends to reduce flammability. Such a production of high-GWP gases could change the acceptability of CF3I-containing refrigerants. Further, it highlights the need to understand refrigerant degradation within equipment in calculations of the environmental acceptability of new cooling technology.

Applications of science and engineering to quantify and control the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The unprecedented engagement of scientists from government, academia, and industry enabled multiple unanticipated and unique problems to be addressed during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. During the months between the initial blowout on April 20, 2010, and the final well kill on September 19, 2010, researchers prepared options, analyses of tradeoffs, assessments, and calculations of uncertainties associated with the flow rate of the well, well shut in, killing the well, and determination of the location of oil released into the environment. This information was used in near real time by the National Incident Commander and other government decision-makers. It increased transparency into BP's proposed actions and gave the government confidence that, at each stage proposed, courses of action had been thoroughly vetted to reduce risk to human life and the environment and improve chances of success.

Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response.

This introduction to the Special Feature presents the context for science during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, summarizes how scientific knowledge was integrated across disciplines and statutory responsibilities, identifies areas where scientific information was accurate and where it was not, and considers lessons learned and recommendations for future research and response. Scientific information was integrated within and across federal and state agencies, with input from nongovernmental scientists, across a diverse portfolio of needs--stopping the flow of oil, estimating the amount of oil, capturing and recovering the oil, tracking and forecasting surface oil, protecting coastal and oceanic wildlife and habitat, managing fisheries, and protecting the safety of seafood. Disciplines involved included atmospheric, oceanographic, biogeochemical, ecological, health, biological, and chemical sciences, physics, geology, and mechanical and chemical engineering. Platforms ranged from satellites and planes to ships, buoys, gliders, and remotely operated vehicles to laboratories and computer simulations. The unprecedented response effort depended directly on intense and extensive scientific and engineering data, information, and advice. Many valuable lessons were learned that should be applied to future events.

The contemporary degassing rate of 40Ar from the solid Earth.

Knowledge of the outgassing history of radiogenic (40)Ar, derived over geologic time from the radioactive decay of (40)K, contributes to our understanding of the geodynamic history of the planet and the origin of volatiles on Earth's surface. The (40)Ar inventory of the atmosphere equals total (40)Ar outgassing during Earth history. Here, we report the current rate of (40)Ar outgassing, accessed by measuring the Ar isotope composition of trapped gases in samples of the Vostok and Dome C deep ice cores dating back to almost 800 ka. The modern outgassing rate (1.1 +/- 0.1 x 10(8) mol/yr) is in the range of values expected by summing outgassing from the continental crust and the upper mantle, as estimated from simple calculations and models. The measured outgassing rate is also of interest because it allows dating of air trapped in ancient ice core samples of unknown age, although uncertainties are large (+/-180 kyr for a single sample or +/-11% of the calculated age, whichever is greater).

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Atmospheric methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) at a rural mountain site in California.

Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) was measured in air samples collected at hourly intervals near Blodgett Forest Research Station on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, California, in July 1997, October 1998, and June through September 1999. Mixing ratios ranged from below the detection limit (< approximately 0.01 ppbv) to 0.5 ppbv, but were generally less than 0.3 ppbv. At these mixing ratios partitioning of MTBE into surface waters would lead to MTBE concentrations of less than 0.2 microg L(-1). As expected, MTBE mixing ratios were highly correlated with other anthropogenically emitted hydrocarbons. Based on the observed diurnal cycle of MTBE and its ratio to 2-methyl-butane (isopentane), we estimated the average regional daytime oxidant concentration to be (9 to 13) x 10(6) OH radicals per cubic centimeter, consistent with our earlier estimates for this region. Furthermore, MTBE ratios to toluene, another ubiquitous anthropogenic hydrocarbon, were generally consistent with regional transport and dilution, as well as atmospheric oxidation. Exceptions, pertaining to MTBE mixing ratios below or close to the detection limit, were associated with the influence of marine air masses that did not experience anthropogenic hydrocarbon input from California. With all these constraints in place, evidence for an additional atmospheric loss process, such as nonreversible deposition of MTBE, could not be established, and we conclude that any deposition is slow compared with removal from the atmosphere by the OH radical.