Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics.

Background: During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics. Methods: We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic. Findings: Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic. Interpretation: The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons. Funding: European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam. Research in context: Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children.

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

Characterization of disease-specific cellular abundance profiles of chronic inflammatory skin conditions from deconvolution of biopsy samples.

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis and atopic dermatitis are two inflammatory skin diseases with a high prevalence and a significant burden on the patients. Underlying molecular mechanisms include chronic inflammation and abnormal proliferation. However, the cell types contributing to these molecular mechanisms are much less understood. Recently, deconvolution methodologies have allowed the digital quantification of cell types in bulk tissue based on mRNA expression data from biopsies. Using these methods to study the cellular composition of the skin enables the rapid enumeration of multiple cell types, providing insight into the numerical changes of cell types associated with chronic inflammatory skin conditions. Here, we use deconvolution to enumerate the cellular composition of the skin and estimate changes related to onset, progress, and treatment of these skin diseases. METHODS: A novel signature matrix, i.e. DerM22, containing expression data from 22 reference cell types, is used, in combination with the CIBERSORT algorithm, to identify and quantify the cellular subsets within whole skin biopsy samples. We apply the approach to public microarray mRNA expression data from the skin layers and 648 samples from healthy subjects and patients with psoriasis or atopic dermatitis. The methodology is validated by comparison to experimental results from flow cytometry and immunohistochemistry studies, and the deconvolution of independent data from isolated cell types. RESULTS: We derived the relative abundance of cell types from healthy, lesional, and non-lesional skin and observed a marked increase in the abundance of keratinocytes and leukocytes in the lesions of both inflammatory dermatological conditions. The relative fraction of these cells varied from healthy to diseased skin and from non-lesional to lesional skin. We show that changes in the relative abundance of skin-related cell types can be used to distinguish between mild and severe cases of psoriasis and atopic dermatitis, and trace the effect of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates the value of this new resource in interpreting skin-derived transcriptomics data by enabling the direct quantification of cell types in a skin sample and the characterization of pathological changes in tissue composition.

A Dynamic Model for Prediction of Psoriasis Management by Blue Light Irradiation.

Clinical investigations prove that blue light irradiation reduces the severity of psoriasis vulgaris. Nevertheless, the mechanisms involved in the management of this condition remain poorly defined. Despite the encouraging results of the clinical studies, no clear guidelines are specified in the literature for the irradiation scheme regime of blue light-based therapy for psoriasis. We investigated the underlying mechanism of blue light irradiation of psoriatic skin, and tested the hypothesis that regulation of proliferation is a key process. We implemented a mechanistic model of cellular epidermal dynamics to analyze whether a temporary decrease of keratinocytes hyper-proliferation can explain the outcome of phototherapy with blue light. Our results suggest that the main effect of blue light on keratinocytes impacts the proliferative cells. They show that the decrease in the keratinocytes proliferative capacity is sufficient to induce a transient decrease in the severity of psoriasis. To study the impact of the therapeutic regime on the efficacy of psoriasis treatment, we performed simulations for different combinations of the treatment parameters, i.e., length of treatment, fluence (also referred to as dose), and intensity. These simulations indicate that high efficacy is achieved by regimes with long duration and high fluence levels, regardless of the chosen intensity. Our modeling approach constitutes a framework for testing diverse hypotheses on the underlying mechanism of blue light-based phototherapy, and for designing effective strategies for the treatment of psoriasis.

Automated design of programmable enzyme-driven DNA circuits.

Molecular programming allows for the bottom-up engineering of biochemical reaction networks in a controlled in vitro setting. These engineered biochemical reaction networks yield important insight in the design principles of biological systems and can potentially enrich molecular diagnostic systems. The DNA polymerase-nickase-exonuclease (PEN) toolbox has recently been used to program oscillatory and bistable biochemical networks using a minimal number of components. Previous work has reported the automatic construction of in silico descriptions of biochemical networks derived from the PEN toolbox, paving the way for generating networks of arbitrary size and complexity in vitro. Here, we report an automated approach that further bridges the gap between an in silico description and in vitro realization. A biochemical network of arbitrary complexity can be globally screened for parameter values that display the desired function and combining this approach with robustness analysis further increases the chance of successful in vitro implementation. Moreover, we present an automated design procedure for generating optimal DNA sequences, exhibiting key characteristics deduced from the in silico analysis. Our in silico method has been tested on a previously reported network, the Oligator, and has also been applied to the design of a reaction network capable of displaying adaptation in one of its components. Finally, we experimentally characterize unproductive sequestration of the exonuclease to phosphorothioate protected ssDNA strands. The strong nonlinearities in the degradation of active components caused by this unintended cross-coupling are shown computationally to have a positive effect on adaptation quality.