Clinical trajectories preceding incident dementia up to 15 years before diagnosis: a large prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dementia has a long prodromal stage with various pathophysiological manifestations; however, the progression of pre-diagnostic changes remains unclear. We aimed to determine the evolutional trajectories of multiple-domain clinical assessments and health conditions up to 15 years before the diagnosis of dementia. METHODS: Data was extracted from the UK-Biobank, a longitudinal cohort that recruited over 500,000 participants from March 2006 to October 2010. Each demented subject was matched with 10 healthy controls. We performed logistic regressions on 400 predictors covering a comprehensive range of clinical assessments or health conditions. Their evolutional trajectories were quantified using adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and FDR-corrected p-values under consecutive timeframes preceding the diagnosis of dementia. FINDINGS: During a median follow-up of 13.7 [Interquartile range, IQR 12.9-14.2] years until July 2022, 7620 subjects were diagnosed with dementia. In general, upon approaching the diagnosis, demented subjects witnessed worse functional assessments and a higher prevalence of health conditions. Associations up to 15 years preceding the diagnosis comprised declined physical strength (hand grip strength, OR 0.65 [0.63-0.67]), lung dysfunction (peak expiratory flow, OR 0.78 [0.76-0.81]) and kidney dysfunction (cystatin C, OR 1.13 [1.11-1.16]), comorbidities of coronary heart disease (OR 1.78 [1.67-1.91]), stroke (OR 2.34 [2.1-1.37]), diabetes (OR 2.03 [1.89-2.18]) and a series of mental disorders. Cognitive functions in multiple tests also demonstrate decline over a decade before the diagnosis. Inadequate activity (3-5 year, overall time of activity, OR 0.82 [0.73-0.92]), drowsiness (3-5 year, sleep duration, OR 1.13 [1.04-1.24]) and weight loss (0-5 year, weight, OR 0.9 [0.83-0.98]) only exhibited associations within five years before the diagnosis. In addition, serum biomarkers of enriched endocrine, dysregulations of ketones, deficiency of brand-chain amino acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids were found in a similar prodromal time window and can be witnessed as the last pre-symptomatic conditions before the diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Our findings present a comprehensive temporal-diagnostic landscape preceding incident dementia, which could improve selection for preventive and early disease-modifying treatment trials.

Associations of liver dysfunction with incident dementia, cognition, and brain structure: A prospective cohort study of 431 699 adults.

The relationship between liver dysfunction and dementia has been researched extensively but remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigate the longitudinal and cross-sectional associations between liver function and liver diseases and risk of incident dementia, impaired cognition, and brain structure abnormalities using Cox proportion hazard model and linear regression model. 431 699 participants with a mean of 8.65 (standard deviation [SD] 2.61) years of follow-up were included from the UK Biobank; 5542 all-cause dementia (ACD), 2427 Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 1282 vascular dementia (VaD) cases were documented. We observed that per SD decreases in alanine transaminase (ALT; hazard ratio [HR], 0.917; PFDR <0.001) and per SD increases in aspartate aminotransferase (AST; HR, 1.048; PFDR = 0.010), AST to ALT ratio (HR, 1.195; PFDR <0.001), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT; HR, 1.066; PFDR <0.001), alcoholic liver disease (ALD; HR, 2.872; PFDR <0.001), and fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver (HR, 2.285; PFDR = 0.002), being significantly associated with a higher risk of incident ACD. Restricted cubic spline models identified a strong U-shaped association between Alb and AST and incident ACD (Pnonlinear <0.05). Worse cognition was positively correlated with AST, AST to ALT ratio, direct bilirubin (DBil), and GGT; negatively correlated with ALT, Alb, and total bilirubin (TBil); and ALD and fibrosis and cirrhosis of liver (PFDR <0.05). Moreover, changes in ALT, GGT, AST to ALT ratio, and ALD were significantly associated with altered cortical and subcortical regions, including hippocampus, amygdala, thalamus, pallidum, and fusiform (PFDR <0.05). In sensitivity analysis, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was associated with the risk of ACD and brain subcortical changes. Our findings provide substantial evidence that liver dysfunction may be an important factor for incident dementia. Early intervention in the unhealthy liver may help prevent cognitive impairment and dementia incidence.

Associations between adiposity and white matter hyperintensities: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of 34,653 participants.

OBJECTIVES: White matter hyperintensities (WMH) increase the risk of stroke and cognitive impairment. This study aims to determine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between adiposity and WMH. METHODS: Participants were enrolled from the UK Biobank cohort. Associations of concurrent, past, and changes in overall and central adiposity with WMH were investigated by linear and nonlinear regression models. The association of longitudinal adiposity and WMH volume changes was determined by a linear mixed model. Mediation analysis investigated the potential mediating effect of blood pressure. RESULTS: In 34,653 participants with available adiposity measures and imaging data, the concurrent obese group had a 25.3% (ß [95% CI] = 0.253 [0.222-0.284]) higher WMH volume than the ideal weight group. Increment in all adiposity measures was associated with a higher WMH volume. Among them, waist circumference demonstrated the strongest effect (ß [95% CI] = 0.113 [0.101-0.125]). Past adiposity also demonstrated similar effects. Among the subset of 2664 participants with available WMH follow-up data, adiposity measures were predictive of WMH change. Regarding changes of adiposity, compared with ideal weight stable group, those who turned from ideal weight to overweight/obese had a 8.1% higher WMH volume (ß [95% CI] = 0.081 [0.039-0.123]), while participants who turned from overweight/obese to ideal weight demonstrated no significant WMH volume change. Blood pressure partly meditates the associations between adiposity and WMH. CONCLUSIONS: Both concurrent and past adiposity were associated with a higher WMH volume. The detrimental effects of adiposity on WMH occurred throughout midlife and in the elderly and may still exist after changes in obesity status.

Glymphatic system dysfunction predicts amyloid deposition, neurodegeneration, and clinical progression in Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Although glymphatic function is involved in Alzheimer's disease (AD), its potential for predicting the pathological and clinical progression of AD and its sequential association with core AD biomarkers is poorly understood. METHODS: Whole-brain glymphatic activity was measured by diffusion tensor image analysis along the perivascular space (DTI-ALPS) in participants with AD dementia (n = 47), mild cognitive impairment (MCI; n = 137), and normal controls (n = 235) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. RESULTS: ALPS index was significantly lower in AD dementia than in MCI or controls. Lower ALPS index was significantly associated with faster changes in amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) burden and AD signature region of interest volume, higher risk of amyloid-positive transition and clinical progression, and faster rates of amyloid- and neurodegeneration-related cognitive decline. Furthermore, the associations of the ALPS index with cognitive decline were fully mediated by amyloid PET and brain atrophy. DISCUSSION: Glymphatic failure may precede amyloid pathology, and predicts amyloid deposition, neurodegeneration, and clinical progression in AD. HIGHLIGHTS: The analysis along the perivascular space (ALPS) index is reduced in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia, prodromal AD, and preclinical AD. Lower ALPS index predicted accelerated amyloid beta (Aß) positron emission tomography (PET) burden and Aß-positive transition. The decrease in the ALPS index occurs before cerebrospinal fluid Aß42 reaches the positive threshold. ALPS index predicted brain atrophy, clinical progression, and cognitive decline. Aß PET and brain atrophy mediated the link of ALPS index with cognitive decline.

Genome-wide association study of cerebellar white matter microstructure and genetic overlap with common brain disorders.

BACKGROUND: The cerebellum is recognized as being involved in neurocognitive and motor functions with communication with extra-cerebellar regions relying on the white matter integrity of the cerebellar peduncles. However, the genetic determinants of cerebellar white matter integrity remain largely unknown. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association analysis of cerebellar white matter microstructure using diffusion tensor imaging data from 25,415 individuals from UK Biobank. The integrity of cerebellar white matter microstructure was measured as fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD). Identification of independent genomic loci, functional annotation, and tissue and cell-type analysis were conducted with FUMA. The linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) was used to calculate genetic correlations between cerebellar white matter microstructure and regional brain volumes and brain-related traits. Furthermore, the conditional/conjunctional false discovery rate (condFDR/conjFDR) framework was employed to identify the shared genetic basis between cerebellar white matter microstructure and common brain disorders. RESULTS: We identified 11 genetic loci (P < 8.3 × 10-9) and 86 genes associated with cerebellar white matter microstructure. Further functional enrichment analysis implicated the involvement of GABAergic neurons and cholinergic pathways. Significant polygenetic overlap between cerebellar white matter tracts and their anatomically connected or adjacent brain regions was detected. In addition, we report the overall genetic correlation and specific loci shared between cerebellar white matter microstructural integrity and brain-related traits, including movement, cognitive, psychiatric, and cerebrovascular categories. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, this study represents a step forward in understanding the genetics of cerebellar white matter microstructure and its shared genetic etiology with common brain disorders.

Associations of circulating metabolites with cerebral white matter hyperintensities.

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most compelling risk factors of stroke, dementia, and early mortality. We aimed to investigate the associations between WMH and circulating metabolites. We studied up to 8190 individuals from the UK Biobank, who have both measurements of 249 plasma metabolites and WMH volume. Linear regression models were applied in pooled samples, and age-stratified and sex-stratified subsamples to estimate the associations between WMH and metabolomic measures. We conducted three analytic models. In the basic model, we identified 45 metabolomic measures associated with WMH after multiple testing correction (p < 0.0022), 15 of which remained significant in additional adjustments, but no metabolites passed the full adjustment in pooled samples. The 15 WMH-related metabolites were subfractions of various sizes of high-density lipoprotein (HDL), fatty acids, and glycoprotein acetyls. Among them, one fatty acid metabolite and 12 HDL-related traits showed significant negative associations with WMH. Higher glycoprotein acetyls were associated with large WMH. Strong age and sex specificities were observed indicating distinct metabolomic features accompany WMH in different samples. More metabolites were identified in males and adults under 50 years old. Circulating metabolites showed remarkably widespread associations with WMH. Population specificities may shed light on the different pertinent implications of WMH.

Circulating metabolites and risk of incident dementia: A prospective cohort study.

Identifying circulating metabolites associated with dementia, cognition, and brain volume may improve the understanding of dementia pathogenesis and provide novel insights for preventive and therapeutic interventions. This cohort study included a total of 87 885 participants (median follow-up of 9.1 years, 54% female) without dementia at baseline from the UK Biobank. A total of 249 plasma metabolites were measured using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at baseline. Cox proportional regression was used to examine the associations of each metabolite with incident dementia (cases = 1134), Alzheimer's disease (AD; cases = 488), and vascular dementia (VD; cases = 257) during follow-up. Dementia-associated metabolites were further analyzed for association with cognitive deficits (N = 87 885) and brain volume (N = 7756) using logistic regression and linear regression. We identified 26 metabolites associated with incident dementia, of which 6 were associated with incident AD and 5 were associated with incident VD. These 26 dementia-related metabolites were subfractions of intermediate-density lipoprotein, large low-density lipoprotein (L-LDL), small high-density lipoprotein (S-HDL), very-low-density lipoprotein, fatty acids, ketone bodies, citrate, glucose, and valine. Among them, the cholesterol percentage in L-LDL (L-LDL-C%) was associated with lower risk of AD (HR [95% CI] = 0.92 [0.87-0.97], p = 0.002), higher brain cortical (ß = 0.047, p = 3.91 × 10-6 ), and hippocampal (ß = 0.043, p = 1.93 × 10-4 ) volume. Cholesteryl ester-to-total lipid ratio in L-LDL (L-LDL-CE%) was associated with lower risk of AD (HR [95% CI] = 0.93 [0.90-0.96], p = 1.48 × 10-4 ), cognitive deficits (odds ratio = 0.98, p = 0.009), and higher hippocampal volume (ß = 0.027, p = 0.009). Cholesteryl esters in S-HDL (S-HDL-CE) were associated with lower risk of VD (HR [95% CI] = 0.81 [0.71-0.93], p = 0.002), but not AD. Taken together, circulating levels of L-LDL-CE% and L-LDL-C% were robustly associated with risk of AD and AD phenotypes, but not with VD. S-HDL-CE was associated with lower risk of VD, but not with AD or AD phenotypes. These metabolites may play a role in the advancement of future intervention trials. Additional research is necessary to gain a complete comprehension of the molecular mechanisms behind these associations.

The cortical regions and white matter tracts underlying auditory comprehension in patients with primary brain tumor.

The comprehension of spoken language is one of the most essential language functions in humans. However, the neurological underpinnings of auditory comprehension remain under debate. Here we used multi-modal neuroimaging analyses on a group of patients with low-grade gliomas to localize cortical regions and white matter tracts responsible for auditory language comprehension. Region-of-interests and voxel-level whole-brain analyses showed that cortical areas in the posterior temporal lobe are crucial for language comprehension. The fiber integrity assessed with diffusion tensor imaging of the arcuate fasciculus and the inferior longitudinal fasciculus was strongly correlated with both auditory comprehension and the grey matter volume of the inferior temporal and middle temporal gyri. Together, our findings provide direct evidence for an integrated network of auditory comprehension whereby the superior temporal gyrus and sulcus, the posterior parts of the middle and inferior temporal gyri serve as auditory comprehension cortex, and the arcuate fasciculus and the inferior longitudinal fasciculus subserve as crucial structural connectivity. These findings provide critical evidence on the neural underpinnings of language comprehension.

Lung function and risk of incident dementia: A prospective cohort study of 431,834 individuals.

BACKGROUND: Whether lung function prospectively affects cognitive brain health independent of their overlapping factors remains largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between decreased lung function and cognitive brain health and to explore underlying biological and brain structural mechanisms. METHODS: This population-based cohort included 43,1834 non-demented participants with spirometry from the UK Biobank. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to estimate the risk of incident dementia for individuals with low lung function. Mediation models were regressed to explore the underlying mechanisms driven by inflammatory markers, oxygen-carrying indices, metabolites, and brain structures. FINDINGS: During a follow-up of 3,736,181 person-years (mean follow-up 8.65 years), 5,622 participants (1.30 %) developed all-cause dementia, which consisted of 2,511 Alzheimer's dementia (AD) and 1,308 Vascular Dementia (VD) cases. Per unit decrease in lung function measure was each associated with increased risk for all-cause dementia (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [liter]: hazard ratio [HR, 95 %CI], 1.24 [1.14-1.34], P = 1.10 × 10-07; forced vital capacity [liter]: 1.16 [1.08-1.24], P = 2.04 × 10-05; peak expiratory flow [liter/min]: 1.0013 [1.0010-1.0017], P = 2.73 × 10-13). Low lung function generated similar hazard estimates for AD and VD risks. As underlying biological mechanisms, systematic inflammatory markers, oxygen-carrying indices, and specific metabolites mediated the effects of lung function on dementia risks. Besides, brain grey and white matter patterns mostly affected in dementia were substantially changed with lung function. INTERPRETATION: Life-course risk for incident dementia was modulated by individual lung function. Maintaining optimal lung function is useful for healthy aging and dementia prevention.

Peripheral immunity is associated with the risk of incident dementia.

Central immunity components especially microglia in dementia have been well studied and corresponding immunotherapy gradually caught the attention. However, few studies focused on peripheral immunity and dementia. To address the issue, we examined the longitudinal association between incident dementia and peripheral immunity markers encompassing immune cell counts, and their derived ratios including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), utilizing data of 361,653 participants from the UK Biobank (UKB). During a median follow-up of 8.99 years, 4239 participants developed dementia. The results revealed that increased innate immunity markers were associated with higher dementia risk (per SD increment hazard ratio [HR]; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14; 1.09-1.19 for neutrophils, 1.16; 1.11-1.20 for NLR and 1.11; 1.07-1.16 for SII), while increased adaptive immunity markers were associated with lower dementia risk (0.93; 0.90-0.97 for lymphocytes and 0.94; 0.90-0.98 for LMR). Our study pinpoints the differential role of innate and adaptive immunity in dementia incidence, which may provide some new perspectives in etiology and therapy of dementia.

Association of life course adiposity with risk of incident dementia: a prospective cohort study of 322,336 participants.

Cohort studies report inconsistent associations between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause incident dementia. Furthermore, evidence on fat distribution and body composition measures are scarce and few studies estimated the association between early life adiposity and dementia risk. Here, we included 322,336 participants from UK biobank to investigate the longitudinal association between life course adiposity and risk of all-cause incident dementia and to explore the underlying mechanisms driven by metabolites, inflammatory cells and brain structures. Among the 322,336 individuals (mean (SD) age, 62.24 (5.41) years; 53.9% women) in the study, during a median 8.74 years of follow-up, 5083 all-cause incident dementia events occurred. The risk of dementia was 22% higher with plumper childhood body size (p < 0.001). A strong U-shaped association was observed between adult BMI and dementia. More fat and less fat-free mass distribution on arms were associated with a higher risk of dementia. Interestingly, similar U-shaped associations were found between BMI and four metabolites (i.e., 3-hydroxybutrate, acetone, citrate and polyunsaturated fatty acids), four inflammatory cells (i.e., neutrophil, lymphocyte, monocyte and leukocyte) and abnormalities in brain structure that were also related to dementia. The findings that adiposity is associated with metabolites, inflammatory cells and abnormalities in brain structure that were related to dementia risk might provide clues to underlying biological mechanisms. Interventions to prevent dementia should begin early in life and include not only BMI control but fat distribution and body composition.

Sleep, physical activity, sedentary behavior, and risk of incident dementia: a prospective cohort study of 431,924 UK Biobank participants.

Although sleep, physical activity and sedentary behavior have been found to be associated with dementia risk, findings are inconsistent and their joint relationship remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate independent and joint associations of these three modifiable behaviors with dementia risks. A total of 431,924 participants (median follow-up 9.0 years) without dementia from UK Biobank were included. Multiple Cox regressions were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Models fitted with restricted cubic spline were conducted to test for linear and nonlinear shapes of each association. Sleep duration, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), and screen-based sedentary behavior individually associated with dementia risks in different non-linear patterns. Sleep duration associated with dementia in a U-shape with a nadir at 7 h/day. LTPA revealed a curvilinear relationship with dementia in diminishing tendency, while sedentary behavior revealed a J-shaped relationship. The dementia risk was 17% lower in the high LTPA group (HR[95%CI]: 0.83[0.76-0.91]) and 22% higher in the high sedentary behavior group (1.22[1.10-1.35]) compared to the corresponding low-level group, respectively. A combination of seven-hour/day sleep, moderate-to-high LTPA, and low-to-moderate sedentary behavior showed the lowest dementia risk (0.59[0.50-0.69]) compared to the referent group (longer or shorter sleep/low LTPA/high sedentary behavior). Notably, each behavior was non-linearly associated with brain structures in a pattern similar to its association with dementia, suggesting they may affect dementia risk by affecting brain structures. Our findings highlight the potential to change these three daily behaviors individually and simultaneously to reduce the risk of dementia.

Associations of Life's Simple 7 with cerebral white matter hyperintensities and microstructural integrity: UK Biobank cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The American Heart Association Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metric was used to define optimal cardiovascular and brain health, but the associations with macrostructural hyperintensities and microstructural white matter damage are unclear. The objective was to determine the association of LS7 ideal cardiovascular health factors with macrostructural and microstructural integrity. METHOD: A total of 37,140 participants with available LS7 and imaging data from UK Biobank were included in this study. Linear associations were implemented to examine the associations of LS7 score and subscores with white matter hyperintensity load (WMH) (WMH volume normalized by total white matter volume and logit-transformed) and diffusion imaging indices (fractional anisotropy [FA], mean diffusivity, orientation dispersion index [OD], intracellular volume fraction, isotropic volume fraction [ISOVF]). RESULTS: In individuals (mean age 54.76 years; 19,697 females, 52.4%), higher LS7 score and subscores were strongly associated with lower WMH and microstructural white matter injury, including OD, ISOVF, FA. Both interaction analyses and stratified analyses of LS7 score and subscores with age and sex showed a strong association with microstructural damage markers, with remarkable age and sex differences. The association of OD was pronounced in females and populations younger than 50 years and FA, mean diffusivity and ISOVF were pronounced in males and populations older than 50 years. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that healthier LS7 profiles are associated with better profiles of both macrostructural and microstructural markers of brain health, and indicate that ideal cardiovascular health is associated with improved brain health.

Residential greenness and risk of incident dementia: A prospective study of 375,342 participants.

INTRODUCTION: Incorporation of greenspace may be a novel environmental policy that might result in positive health effects; hence, this study aimed to investigate the association between residential greenness and dementia incidence. The effects of particulate air pollution on mediating dementia were also determined. METHODS: A prospective cohort study involving 375,342 UK biobank participants was conducted, in which Cox regression models were used to determine the association of greenspace exposure with the risks of all-cause dementia (ACD), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD). Sociodemographic variables, lifestyle or dietary characteristics and apolipoprotein E4 status were controlled using two levels of adjusted models. Mediation analyses were performed to determine the mediation effects of PMs. RESULTS: The results indicated that there were 4929 ACD, 2132 AD, and 1184 VD incidents throughout the 8-year study. In the multi-adjusted model, each interquartile increment in greenspace (buffer 300m) conferred the lower risks of ACD (HR = 0.968, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.938-1.000]) and VD (HR = 0.926, 95% CI: 0.867-0.989). The fourth greenspace quartile conferred also reduced risks of ACD (HR = 0.891, 95% CI: 0.804-0.989) and VD (HR = 0.778, 95% CI: 0.630-0.960) in reference to the first quartile. With regard to 1000m catchment, each interquartile increment conferred a 5.0% (95% CI: 1.8-8.1) lower risk of ACD, and the fourth greenspace quartile conferred a 10.9% (95% CI: 0.9-19.8) lower risk of ACD compared to the first quartile. The protective effect of greenness might be mediated based on the reduction of PM2.5 and PM10 (Pindirect effect<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing greenness reduces the risk of dementia. This study suggests that greenspace is an environmental strategy that helps prevent dementia.

Associations of blood cell indices and anemia with risk of incident dementia: A prospective cohort study of 313,448 participants.

INTRODUCTION: Low hemoglobin and anemia are associated with cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the associations of other blood cell indices with incident dementia risk and the underlined mechanisms are unknown. METHODS: Three hundred thirteen thousand four hundred forty-eight participants from the UK Biobank were included. Cox and restricted cubic spline models were used to investigate linear and non-linear longitudinal associations. Mendelian randomization analysis was used to identify causal associations. Linear regression models were used to explore potential mechanisms driven by brain structures. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 9.03 years, 6833 participants developed dementia. Eighteen indices were associated with dementia risk regarding erythrocytes, immature erythrocytes, and leukocytes. Anemia was associated with a 56% higher risk of developing dementia. Hemoglobin and red blood cell distribution width were causally associated with AD. Extensive associations exist between most blood cell indices and brain structures. DISCUSSION: These findings consolidated associations between blood cells and dementia. HIGHLIGHT: Anemia was associated with 56% higher risk for all-cause dementia. Hematocrit percentage, mean corpuscular volume, platelet crit, and mean platelet volume had U-shaped associations with incident dementia risk. Hemoglobin (HGB) and red blood cell distribution width had causal effects on Alzheimer's risk. HGB and anemia were associated with brain structure alterations.

Circulating metabolites associated with incident myocardial infarction and stroke: A prospective cohort study of 90 438 participants.

The relevance between circulating metabolites and vascular events remains controversial and comprehensive studies are lacking. We sought to investigate the prospective associations of plasma metabolomics with risks of incident stroke, ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and myocardial infarction (MI). Within the UK Biobank cohort, 249 circulating metabolites were measured in 90 438 participants without baseline vascular diseases. Cox proportional hazards regressions were applied to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for per 1 standard deviation increment in metabolites. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm was used for selecting metabolite subsets. During a median of 9.0 years of follow-up, we documented 833 incident stroke and 1256 MI cases. Lipid constituents, comprising cholesterol, cholesteryl esters, free cholesterol, phospholipids, and total lipids, in very low- (VLDL), intermediate- (IDL), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles were positively associated with MI risk (HR = 1.12 to 1.36; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.44), while in high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles showed inverse associations (HR = 0.68 to 0.81; 95% CI = 0.63 to 0.87). Similar association pattern with MI was also observed for VLDL, IDL, LDL, and HDL particles themselves. In contrast, triglycerides within all lipoproteins, including most HDL particles, were positively associated with MI risk (HR = 1.14 to 1.28; 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.35) and, to a slightly lesser extent, with stroke and IS. Unsaturation of fatty acids and albumin were inversely associated with risks of stroke, IS, and MI. In contrast, the linear association for HS is absent. When combining multiple metabolites, the metabolite risk score captured a drastically elevated risk of all vascular events, about twice that of any single metabolite. Taken together, circulating metabolites showed remarkably widespread associations with incident MI, but substantially weakened associations with risks of stroke and its subtypes. Exhaustive metabolomics profiling may shed light on vascular risk prediction and, in turn, guide pertinent strategies of intervention and treatment.

Machine learning is an effective method to predict the 90-day prognosis of patients with transient ischemic attack and minor stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate factors related to the 90-day poor prognosis (mRS≥3) in patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, construct 90-day poor prognosis prediction models for patients with TIA or minor stroke, and compare the predictive performance of machine learning models and Logistic model. METHOD: We selected TIA and minor stroke patients from a prospective registry study (CNSR-III). Demographic characteristics,smoking history, drinking history(≥20g/day), physiological data, medical history,secondary prevention treatment, in-hospital evaluation and education,laboratory data, neurological severity, mRS score and TOAST classification of patients were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed in the training set to identify predictors associated with poor outcome (mRS≥3). The predictors were used to establish machine learning models and the traditional Logistic model, which were randomly divided into the training set and test set according to the ratio of 70:30. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, and the test set was used to evaluate the effect of the model. The evaluation indicators of the model included the area under the curve (AUC) of the discrimination index and the Brier score (or calibration plot) of the calibration index. RESULT: A total of 10967 patients with TIA and minor stroke were enrolled in this study, with an average age of 61.77 ± 11.18 years, and women accounted for 30.68%. Factors associated with the poor prognosis in TIA and minor stroke patients included sex, age, stroke history, heart rate, D-dimer, creatinine, TOAST classification, admission mRS, discharge mRS, and discharge NIHSS score. All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning, performed well in predicting the 90-day poor prognosis (AUC >0.800). The best performing AUC in the test set was the Catboost model (AUC=0.839), followed by the XGBoost, GBDT, random forest and Adaboost model (AUCs equal to 0.838, 0, 835, 0.832, 0.823, respectively). The performance of Catboost and XGBoost in predicting poor prognosis at 90-day was better than the Logistic model, and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05). All models, both those constructed by Logistic regression and those by machine learning had good calibration. CONCLUSION: Machine learning algorithms were not inferior to the Logistic regression model in predicting the poor prognosis of patients with TIA and minor stroke at 90-day. Among them, the Catboost model had the best predictive performance. All models provided good discrimination.

Plasma proteomic profiles predict future dementia in healthy adults.

The advent of proteomics offers an unprecedented opportunity to predict dementia onset. We examined this in data from 52,645 adults without dementia in the UK Biobank, with 1,417 incident cases and a follow-up time of 14.1 years. Of 1,463 plasma proteins, GFAP, NEFL, GDF15 and LTBP2 consistently associated most with incident all-cause dementia (ACD), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD), and ranked high in protein importance ordering. Combining GFAP (or GDF15) with demographics produced desirable predictions for ACD (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.891) and AD (AUC = 0.872) (or VaD (AUC = 0.912)). This was also true when predicting over 10-year ACD, AD and VaD. Individuals with higher GFAP levels were 2.32 times more likely to develop dementia. Notably, GFAP and LTBP2 were highly specific for dementia prediction. GFAP and NEFL began to change at least 10 years before dementia diagnosis. Our findings strongly highlight GFAP as an optimal biomarker for dementia prediction, even more than 10 years before the diagnosis, with implications for screening people at high risk for dementia and for early intervention.

Whole exome sequencing analyses reveal novel genes in telomere length and their biomedical implications.

Telomere length is a putative biomarker of aging and is associated with multiple age-related diseases. There are limited data on the landscape of rare genetic variations in telomere length. Here, we systematically characterize the rare variant associations with leukocyte telomere length (LTL) through exome-wide association study (ExWAS) among 390,231 individuals in the UK Biobank. We identified 18 robust rare-variant genes for LTL, most of which estimated effects on LTL were significant (> 0.2 standard deviation per allele). The biological functions of the rare-variant genes were associated with telomere maintenance and capping and several genes were specifically expressed in the testis. Three novel genes (ASXL1, CFAP58, and TET2) associated with LTL were identified. Phenotypic association analyses indicated significant associations of ASXL1 and TET2 with cancers, age-related diseases, blood assays, and cardiovascular traits. Survival analyses suggested that carriers of ASXL1 or TET2 variants were at increased risk for cancers; diseases of the circulatory, respiratory, and genitourinary systems; and all-cause and cause-specific deaths. The CFAP58 carriers were at elevated risk of deaths due to cancers. Collectively, the present whole exome sequencing study provides novel insights into the genetic landscape of LTL, identifying novel genes associated with LTL and their implications on human health and facilitating a better understanding of aging, thus pinpointing the genetic relevance of LTL with clonal hematopoiesis, biomedical traits, and health-related outcomes.

Association of grip strength and walking pace with the risk of incident Parkinson's disease: a prospective cohort study of 422,531 participants.

BACKGROUND: Muscle weakness is a prominent feature of Parkinson's disease, but whether the occurrence of this deficit in healthy adults is associated with subsequent PD diagnosis remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to examine the relationship between muscle strength, represented by grip strength and walking pace, and the risk of incident PD. METHODS: A total of 422,531 participants from the UK biobank were included in this study. Longitudinal associations of grip strength and walking pace with the risk of incident PD were investigated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for several well-established risk factors. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were also conducted for further validation. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 9.23 years, 2,118 (0.5%) individuals developed incident PD. For per 5 kg increment of absolute grip strength, there was a significant 10.2% reduction in the risk of incident PD (HR = 0.898, 95% CI [0.872-0.924], P < 0.001). Similarly, per 0.05 kg/kg increment of relative grip strength was related to a 9.2% reduced risk of incident PD (HR = 0.908, 95% CI [0.887-0.929], P < 0.001). Notably, the associations remained consistent when grip strength was calculated as quintiles. Moreover, participants with a slower walking pace demonstrated an elevated risk of incident PD (HR = 1.231, 95%CI [1.075-1.409], P = 0.003). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses further validated the robustness of the observed associations. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed a negative association of grip strength and walking pace with the risk of incident PD independent of important confounding factors. These results hold potential implications for the early screening of people at high-risk of PD.