Global conservation of species' niches.

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive1. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas4. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots9, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas1,2.

Connecting high-throughput biodiversity inventories: Opportunities for a site-based genomic framework for global integration and synthesis.

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) is increasingly being used for the characterization and monitoring of biodiversity. If applied in a structured way, across broad geographical scales, it offers the potential for a much deeper understanding of global biodiversity through the integration of massive quantities of molecular inventory data generated independently at local, regional and global scales. The universality, reliability and efficiency of HTS data can potentially facilitate the seamless linking of data among species assemblages from different sites, at different hierarchical levels of diversity, for any taxonomic group and regardless of prior taxonomic knowledge. However, collective international efforts are required to optimally exploit the potential of site-based HTS data for global integration and synthesis, efforts that at present are limited to the microbial domain. To contribute to the development of an analogous strategy for the nonmicrobial terrestrial domain, an international symposium entitled "Next Generation Biodiversity Monitoring" was held in November 2019 in Nicosia (Cyprus). The symposium brought together evolutionary geneticists, ecologists and biodiversity scientists involved in diverse regional and global initiatives using HTS as a core tool for biodiversity assessment. In this review, we summarize the consensus that emerged from the 3-day symposium. We converged on the opinion that an effective terrestrial Genomic Observatories network for global biodiversity integration and synthesis should be spatially led and strategically united under the umbrella of the metabarcoding approach. Subsequently, we outline an HTS-based strategy to collectively build an integrative framework for site-based biodiversity data generation.

Diet shifts by adult flightless dung beetles Circellium bacchus, revealed using DNA metabarcoding, reflect complex life histories.

Life history changes may change resource use. Such shifts are not well understood in the dung beetles, despite recognised differences in larval and adult feeding ability. We use the flightless dung beetle Circellium bacchus to explore such shifts, identifying dung sources of adults using DNA metabarcoding, and comparing these with published accounts of larval dung sources. C. bacchus is traditionally considered to specialise on the dung of large herbivores for both larval and adult feeding. We successfully extracted mammal DNA from 151 adult C. bacchus fecal samples, representing 16 mammal species (ranging from elephants to small rodents), many of which are hitherto undescribed in the diet. Adult C. bacchus showed clear dung source preferences, especially for large herbivores inhabiting dense-cover vegetation. Our approach also confirmed the presence of cryptic taxa in the study area, and we propose that this may be used for biodiversity survey and monitoring purposes. Murid rodent feces were the most commonly fed-upon dung source (77.5%) for adult C. bacchus, differing markedly from the large and megaherbivore dung sources used for larval rearing. These findings support the hypothesis of life history-specific shifts in resource use in dung beetles, and reveal a hitherto unsuspected, but ecologically important, role of these dung beetles in consuming rodent feces. The differences in feeding abilities of the larval and adult life history stages have profound consequences for their resource use and foraging strategies, and hence the ecological role of dung beetles. This principle and its ecological consequences should be explored in other scarabaeids.

Synergies and trade-offs in achieving global biodiversity targets.

After their failure to achieve a significant reduction in the global rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, world governments adopted 20 new ambitious Aichi biodiversity targets to be met by 2020. Efforts to achieve one particular target can contribute to achieving others, but different targets may sometimes require conflicting solutions. Consequently, lack of strategic thinking might result, once again, in a failure to achieve global commitments to biodiversity conservation. We illustrate this dilemma by focusing on Aichi Target 11. This target requires an expansion of terrestrial protected area coverage, which could also contribute to reducing the loss of natural habitats (Target 5), reducing human-induced species decline and extinction (Target 12), and maintaining global carbon stocks (Target 15). We considered the potential impact of expanding protected areas to mitigate global deforestation and the consequences for the distribution of suitable habitat for >10,000 species of forest vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and mammals). We first identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on remaining forests and then identified places where deforestation might have the highest impact on forest vertebrates (considering aggregate suitable habitat for species). Expanding protected areas toward locations with the highest deforestation rates (Target 5) or the highest potential loss of aggregate species' suitable habitat (Target 12) resulted in partially different protected area network configurations (overlapping with each other by about 73%). Moreover, the latter approach contributed to safeguarding about 30% more global carbon stocks than the former. Further investigation of synergies and trade-offs between targets would shed light on these and other complex interactions, such as the interaction between reducing overexploitation of natural resources (Targets 6, 7), controlling invasive alien species (Target 9), and preventing extinctions of native species (Target 12). Synergies between targets must be identified and secured soon and trade-offs must be minimized before the options for co-benefits are reduced by human pressures.

Toward quantification of the impact of 21st-century deforestation on the extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates.

Conservation actions need to be prioritized, often taking into account species' extinction risk. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List provides an accepted, objective framework for the assessment of extinction risk. Assessments based on data collected in the field are the best option, but the field data to base these on are often limited. Information collected through remote sensing can be used in place of field data to inform assessments. Forests are perhaps the best-studied land-cover type for use of remote-sensing data. Using an open-access 30-m resolution map of tree cover and its change between 2000 and 2012, we assessed the extent of forest cover and loss within the distributions of 11,186 forest-dependent amphibians, birds, and mammals worldwide. For 16 species, forest loss resulted in an elevated extinction risk under red-list criterion A, owing to inferred rapid population declines. This number increased to 23 when data-deficient species (i.e., those with insufficient information for evaluation) were included. Under red-list criterion B2, 484 species (855 when data-deficient species were included) were considered at elevated extinction risk, owing to restricted areas of occupancy resulting from little forest cover remaining within their ranges. The proportion of species of conservation concern would increase by 32.8% for amphibians, 15.1% for birds, and 24.7% for mammals if our suggested uplistings are accepted. Central America, the Northern Andes, Madagascar, the Eastern Arc forests in Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia are hotspots for these species. Our results illustrate the utility of satellite imagery for global extinction-risk assessment and measurement of progress toward international environmental agreement targets.

Heterochrony in a complex world: disentangling environmental processes of facultative paedomorphosis in an amphibian.

Heterochrony, the change in the rate or timing of development between ancestors and their descendants, plays a major role in evolution. When heterochrony produces polymorphisms, it offers the possibility to test hypotheses that could explain its success across environments. Amphibians are particularly suitable to exploring these questions because they express complex life cycles (i.e. metamorphosis) that have been disrupted by heterochronic processes (paedomorphosis: retention of larval traits in adults). The large phenotypic variation across populations suggests that more complex processes than expected are operating, but they remain to be investigated through multivariate analyses over a large range of natural populations across time. In this study, we compared the likelihood of multiple potential environmental determinants of heterochrony. We gathered data on the proportion of paedomorphic and metamorphic palmate newts (Lissotriton helveticus) across more than 150 populations during 10 years and used an information-theoretic approach to compare the support of multiple potential processes. Six environmental processes jointly explained the proportion of paedomorphs in populations: predation, water availability, dispersal limitation, aquatic breathing, terrestrial habitat suitability and antipredator refuges. Analyses of variation across space and time supported models based on the advantage of paedomorphosis in favourable aquatic habitats. Paedomorphs were favoured in deep ponds, in conditions favourable to aquatic breathing (high oxygen content), with lack of fish and surrounded by suitable terrestrial habitat. Metamorphs were favoured by banks allowing easy dispersal. These results indicate that heterochrony relies on complex processes involving multiple ecological variables and exemplifies why heterochronic patterns occur in contrasted environments. On the other hand, the fast selection of alternative morphs shows that metamorphosis and paedomorphosis developmental modes could be easily disrupted in natural populations.

Species distribution models as a tool to estimate reproductive parameters: a case study with a passerine bird species.

1. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) assess relationships between species distribution data and environmental features, to evaluate the environmental suitability (ES) of a given area for a species, by providing a measure of the probability of presence. If the output of SDMs represents the relationships between habitat features and species performance well, SDM results can be related also to other key parameters of populations, including reproductive parameters. To test this hypothesis, we evaluated whether SDM results can be used as a proxy of reproductive parameters (breeding output, territory size) in red-backed shrikes (Lanius collurio). 2. The distribution of 726 shrike territories in Northern Italy was obtained through multiple focused surveys; for a subset of pairs, we also measured territory area and number of fledged juveniles. We used Maximum Entropy modelling to build a SDM on the basis of territory distribution. We used generalized least squares and spatial generalized mixed models to relate territory size and number of fledged juveniles to SDM suitability, while controlling for spatial autocorrelation. 3. Species distribution models predicted shrike distribution very well. Territory size was negatively related to suitability estimated through SDM, while the number of fledglings significantly increased with the suitability of the territory. This was true also when SDM was built using only spatially and temporally independent data. 4. Results show a clear relationship between ES estimated through presence-only SDMs and two key parameters related to species' reproduction, suggesting that suitability estimated by SDM, and habitat quality determining reproduction parameters in our model system, are correlated. Our study shows the potential use of SDMs to infer important fitness parameters; this information can have great importance in management and conservation.

Molecular Evolution of Antigen-Processing Genes in Salamanders: Do They Coevolve with MHC Class I Genes?

Proteins encoded by antigen-processing genes (APGs) prepare antigens for presentation by the major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC I) molecules. Coevolution between APGs and MHC I genes has been proposed as the ancestral gnathostome condition. The hypothesis predicts a single highly expressed MHC I gene and tight linkage between APGs and MHC I. In addition, APGs should evolve under positive selection, a consequence of the adaptive evolution in MHC I. The presence of multiple highly expressed MHC I genes in some teleosts, birds, and urodeles appears incompatible with the coevolution hypothesis. Here, we use urodele amphibians to test two key expectations derived from the coevolution hypothesis: 1) the linkage between APGs and MHC I was studied in Lissotriton newts and 2) the evidence for adaptive evolution in APGs was assessed using 42 urodele species comprising 21 genera from seven families. We demonstrated that five APGs (PSMB8, PSMB9, TAP1, TAP2, and TAPBP) are tightly linked (<0.5 cM) to MHC I. Although all APGs showed some codons under episodic positive selection, we did not find a pervasive signal of positive selection expected under the coevolution hypothesis. Gene duplications, putative gene losses, and divergent allelic lineages detected in some APGs demonstrate considerable evolutionary dynamics of APGs in salamanders. Overall, our results indicate that if coevolution between APGs and MHC I occurred in urodeles, it would be more complex than envisaged in the original formulation of the hypothesis.

Replication levels, false presences and the estimation of the presence/absence from eDNA metabarcoding data.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is increasingly used to study the present and past biodiversity. eDNA analyses often rely on amplification of very small quantities or degraded DNA. To avoid missing detection of taxa that are actually present (false negatives), multiple extractions and amplifications of the same samples are often performed. However, the level of replication needed for reliable estimates of the presence/absence patterns remains an unaddressed topic. Furthermore, degraded DNA and PCR/sequencing errors might produce false positives. We used simulations and empirical data to evaluate the level of replication required for accurate detection of targeted taxa in different contexts and to assess the performance of methods used to reduce the risk of false detections. Furthermore, we evaluated whether statistical approaches developed to estimate occupancy in the presence of observational errors can successfully estimate true prevalence, detection probability and false-positive rates. Replications reduced the rate of false negatives; the optimal level of replication was strongly dependent on the detection probability of taxa. Occupancy models successfully estimated true prevalence, detection probability and false-positive rates, but their performance increased with the number of replicates. At least eight PCR replicates should be performed if detection probability is not high, such as in ancient DNA studies. Multiple DNA extractions from the same sample yielded consistent results; in some cases, collecting multiple samples from the same locality allowed detecting more species. The optimal level of replication for accurate species detection strongly varies among studies and could be explicitly estimated to improve the reliability of results.