Association Between SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load and COVID-19 Vaccination in 4 Phase 3 Trials.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines reduce severe disease and mortality and may lessen transmission, measured by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load (VL). Evaluating vaccine associations in VL at COVID-19 diagnosis in 4 phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled vaccine trials, July 2020 to July 2021, VL reductions were 2.78 log10 copies/mL (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-4.18; n = 60 placebo, 11 vaccine) and 2.12 log10 copies/mL (95% CI, 1.44-2.80; n = 594 placebo, 36 vaccine) for NVX-CoV2373 and mRNA-1273, respectively. Associations were not significant for AZD1222 (0.59 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, -.19 to 1.36; n = 90 placebo, 78 vaccine) or Ad26.COV2.S (0.23 log10 copies/mL; 95% CI, -.01 to .47; n = 916 placebo, 424 vaccine). Thus, vaccines potentially decreased transmission when ancestral SARS-CoV-2 predominated. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04470427, NCT04505722, NCT04516746, NCT04611802.

Selection of HIV Envelope Strains for Standardized Assessments of Vaccine-Elicited Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity-Mediating Antibodies.

Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) has been correlated with reduced risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in several preclinical vaccine trials and in the RV144 clinical trial, indicating that this is a relevant antibody function to study. Given the diversity of HIV-1, the breadth of vaccine-induced antibody responses is a critical parameter to understand if a universal vaccine is to be realized. Moreover, the breadth of ADCC responses can be influenced by different vaccine strategies and regimens, including adjuvants. Therefore, to accurately evaluate ADCC and to compare vaccine regimens, it is important to understand the range of HIV Envelope (Env) susceptibility to these responses. These evaluations have been limited because of the complexity of the assay and the lack of a comprehensive panel of viruses for the assessment of these humoral responses. Here, we used 29 HIV-1 infectious molecular clones (IMCs) representing different Envelope subtypes and circulating recombinant forms to characterize susceptibility to ADCC from antibodies in plasma from infected individuals, including 13 viremic individuals, 10 controllers, and six with broadly neutralizing antibody responses. We found in our panel that ADCC susceptibility of the IMCs in our panel did not cluster by subtype, infectivity, level of CD4 downregulation, level of shedding, or neutralization sensitivity. Using partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering to distinguish smaller groups of IMCs with similar ADCC susceptibility, we identified nested panels of four to eight IMCs that broadly represent the ADCC susceptibility of the entire 29-IMC panel. These panels, together with reagents developed to specifically accommodate circulating viruses at the geographical sites of vaccine trials, will provide a powerful tool to harmonize ADCC data generated across different studies and to detect common themes of ADCC responses elicited by various vaccines. IMPORTANCE Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses were found to correlate with reduced risk of infection in the RV144 trial of the only human HIV-1 vaccine to show any efficacy to date. However, reagents to understand the breadth and magnitude of these responses across preclinical and clinical vaccine trials remain underdeveloped. In this study, we characterize HIV-1 infectious molecular clones encoding 29 distinct Envelope strains (Env-IMCs) to understand factors that impact virus susceptibility to ADCC and use statistical methods to identify smaller nested panels of four to eight Env-IMCs that accurately represent the full set. These reagents can be used as standardized reagents across studies to fully understand how ADCC may affect efficacy of future vaccine studies and how studies differ in the breadth of responses developed.

High Asymptomatic Carriage With the Omicron Variant in South Africa.

We report a 23% asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) Omicron carriage rate in participants being enrolled into a clinical trial in South Africa, 15-fold higher than in trials before Omicron. We also found lower CD4 + T-cell counts in persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) strongly correlated with increased odds of being SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive.

Neutralizing antibody responses over time in demographically and clinically diverse individuals recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States and Peru: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People infected with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) experience a wide range of clinical manifestations, from asymptomatic and mild illness to severe illness and death, influenced by age and a variety of comorbidities. Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are thought to be a primary immune defense against the virus. Large, diverse, well-characterized cohorts of convalescent individuals provide standardized values to benchmark nAb responses to past SARS-CoV-2 infection and define potentially protective levels of immunity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This analysis comprises an observational cohort of 329 HIV-seronegative adults in the United States (n = 167) and Peru (n = 162) convalescing from SARS-CoV-2 infection from May through October 2020. The mean age was 48 years (range 18 to 86), 54% of the cohort overall was Hispanic, and 34% identified as White. nAb titers were measured in serum by SARS-CoV-2.D614G Spike-pseudotyped virus infection of 293T/ACE2 cells. Multiple linear regression was applied to define associations between nAb titers and demographic variables, disease severity and time from infection or disease onset, and comorbidities within and across US and Peruvian cohorts over time. nAb titers peaked 28 to 42 days post-diagnosis and were higher in participants with a history of severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (p < 0.001). Diabetes, age >55 years, male sex assigned at birth, and, in some cases, body mass index were also independently associated with higher nAb titers, whereas hypertension was independently associated with lower nAb titers. nAb titers did not differ by race, underlying pulmonary disease or smoking. Two months post-enrollment, nAb ID50 (ID80) titers declined 3.5 (2.8)-fold overall. Study limitations in this observational, convalescent cohort include survivorship bias and missing early viral loads and acute immune responses to correlate with the convalescent responses we observed. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, in our cohort, nAb titers after SARS-CoV-2 infection peaked approximately 1 month post-diagnosis and varied by age, sex assigned at birth, disease severity, and underlying comorbidities. Our data show great heterogeneity in nAb responses among people with recent COVID-19, highlighting the challenges of interpreting natural history studies and gauging responses to vaccines and therapeutics among people with recent infection. Our observations illuminate potential correlations of demographic and clinical characteristics with nAb responses, a key element for protection from COVID-19, thus informing development and implementation of preventative and therapeutic strategies globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04403880.

Ecological inference for infectious disease data, with application to vaccination strategies.

Disease surveillance systems provide a rich source of data regarding infectious diseases, aggregated across geographical regions. The analysis of such ecological data is fraught with difficulties, and, unless care and suitable data summaries are available, will lead to biased estimates of individual-level parameters. We consider using surveillance data to study the impacts of vaccination. To catalog the problems of ecological inference, we start with an individual-level model, which contains familiar parameters, and derive an ecologically consistent model for infectious diseases in partially vaccinated populations. We compare with other popular model classes and highlight deficiencies. We explore the properties of the new model through simulation and demonstrate that, under standard assumptions, the ecological model provides less biased estimates. We then fit the new model to data collected on measles outbreaks in Germany from 2005-2007.

Time series modeling of pathogen-specific disease probabilities with subsampled data.

Many diseases arise due to exposure to one of multiple possible pathogens. We consider the situation in which disease counts are available over time from a study region, along with a measure of clinical disease severity, for example, mild or severe. In addition, we suppose a subset of the cases are lab tested in order to determine the pathogen responsible for disease. In such a context, we focus interest on modeling the probabilities of disease incidence given pathogen type. The time course of these probabilities is of great interest as is the association with time-varying covariates such as meteorological variables. In this set up, a natural Bayesian approach would be based on imputation of the unsampled pathogen information using Markov Chain Monte Carlo but this is computationally challenging. We describe a practical approach to inference that is easy to implement. We use an empirical Bayes procedure in a first step to estimate summary statistics. We then treat these summary statistics as the observed data and develop a Bayesian generalized additive model. We analyze data on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China in which there are two pathogens of primary interest, enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxackie A16 (CA16). We find that both EV71 and CA16 are associated with temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, with reasonably similar functional forms for both pathogens. The important issue of confounding by time is modeled using a penalized B-spline model with a random effects representation. The level of smoothing is addressed by a careful choice of the prior on the tuning variance.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Trials.

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity. Objective: To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Results: Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

Immune correlates analysis of the Imbokodo (HVTN 705/HPX2008) efficacy trial of a mosaic HIV-1 vaccine regimen evaluated in Southern African people assigned female sex at birth: a two-phase case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The HVTN 705 Imbokodo trial of 2636 people without HIV and assigned female sex at birth, conducted in southern Africa, evaluated a heterologous HIV-1 vaccine regimen: mosaic adenovirus 26-based vaccine (Ad26.Mos4.HIV) at Months 0, 3, 6, 12 and alum-adjuvanted clade C gp140 at Months 6, 12. Per-protocol vaccine efficacy (VE) against HIV-1 diagnosis from seven to 24 months was 14.1% (95% CI: -22.0% to 39.5%). Immune correlates analysis was performed for markers selected based on prior evidence in efficacy trials and/or nonhuman primate models. METHODS: Humoral and cellular immune response markers at Month 7 were evaluated as immune correlates of risk and of protection in a breakthrough case-control cohort (n = 52 cases, 246 non-cases). Primary markers were IgG binding to vaccine-strain gp140, IgG3 binding to diverse Env antigens (IgG3 Env breadth), IgG3 binding to diverse V1V2 antigens (IgG3 V1V2 breadth), antibody-dependent phagocytosis against the vaccine-strain gp140, Env-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses, and multi-epitope functions. FINDINGS: No immune markers were statistically significant correlates of risk. IgG3 V1V2 breadth trended toward an inverse association: hazard ratio 0.70 (95% CI: 0.36 to 1.35; p = 0.29) per 10-fold increase and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21 to 1.24; p = 0.14) in a Cox model with all primary markers. The VE estimate was 11.8% (95% CI: -17.9% to 34.0%) at all IgG3 V1V2 breadth values below 667 weighted geometric mean net MFI; just above this value, the VE estimate sharply increased to 62.6% (95% CI: -17.9% to 89.6%), and further increased to 80.9% (95% CI: -17.9% to 99.5%) at 1471 MFI, the 95th percentile of the marker distribution. Mediation analysis yielded a VE of 35.7% (95% CI: 15.0% to 51.3%) attributable to the vaccine's impact on this marker. INTERPRETATION: The trend in association of greater IgG3 V1V2 antibody breadth with lower likelihood of HIV acquisition is consistent with the identification of antibodies against V1V2 as immune correlates in three other HIV vaccine efficacy trials and suggests that a greater emphasis should be placed on studying this region in the HIV-1 envelope as a vaccine immunogen. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV.

High Rate of Asymptomatic Carriage Associated with Variant Strain Omicron.

The early widespread dissemination of Omicron indicates the urgent need to better understand the transmission dynamics of this variant, including asymptomatic spread among immunocompetent and immunosuppressed populations. In early December 2021, the Ubuntu clinical trial, designed to evaluate efficacy of the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna) among persons living with HIV (PLWH), began enrolling participants. Nasal swabs are routinely obtained at the initial vaccination visit, which requires participants to be clinically well to receive their initial jab. Of the initial 230 participants enrolled between December 2 and December 17, 2021, 71 (31%) were PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2: all of whom were subsequently confirmed by S gene dropout to be Omicron; 48% of the tested samples had cycle threshold (CT) values <25 and 18% less than 20, indicative of high titers of asymptomatic shedding. Asymptomatic carriage rates were similar in SARS-CoV-2 seropositive and seronegative persons (27% respectively). These data are in stark contrast to COVID-19 vaccine studies conducted pre-Omicron, where the SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity rate at the first vaccination visit ranged from <1%-2.4%, including a cohort of over 1,200 PLWH largely enrolled in South Africa during the Beta outbreak. We also evaluated asymptomatic carriage in a sub study of the Sisonke vaccine trial conducted in South African health care workers, which indicated 2.6% asymptomatic carriage during the Beta and Delta outbreaks and subsequently rose to 16% in both PLWH and PHLWH during the Omicron period.

Vaccine-Induced Antibodies Mediate Higher Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity After Interleukin-15 Pretreatment of Natural Killer Effector Cells.

The secondary analyses for correlates of risk of infection in the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine trial implicated vaccine-induced antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses in the observed protection, highlighting the importance of assessing such responses in ongoing and future HIV-1 vaccine trials. However, in vitro assays that detect ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 infected seropositive individuals are not always effective at detecting ADCC activity in plasma from HIV-1 vaccine recipients. In vivo, ADCC-mediating antibodies must operate at the site of infection, where effector cells are recruited and activated by a local milieu of chemokines and cytokines. Based on previous findings that interleukin 15 (IL-15) secretion increases during acute HIV-1 infection and enhances NK cell-mediated cytotoxicity, we hypothesized that IL-15 pretreatment of NK effector cells could be used to improve killing of infected cells by vaccine-induced antibodies capable of mediating ADCC. Using the HIV-1 infectious molecular clone (IMC)-infected target cell assay along with plasma samples from HIV-1 vaccine recipients, we found that IL-15 treatment of effector cells improved the ability of the vaccine-induced antibodies to recruit effector cells for ADCC. Through immunophenotyping experiments, we showed that this improved killing was likely due to IL-15 mediated activation of NK effector cells and higher intracellular levels of perforin and granzyme B in the IL-15 pretreated NK cells. We also found that using a 4-fold dilution series of plasma and subtraction of pre-vaccination responses resulted in lowest response rates among placebo recipients and significant separation between treatment groups. This represents the first attempt to utilize IL-15-treated effector cells and optimized analytical approaches to improve the detection of HIV-1 vaccine-induced ADCC responses and will inform analyses of future HIV vaccine clinical trials.

Synergistic Impact of Training Followed by On-Site Support on HIV Clinical Practice: A Mixed-Design Study in Uganda With Pre/Post and Cluster-Randomized Trial Components.

BACKGROUND: Task shifting can expand antiretroviral therapy access, but little is known about effective approaches to improve clinical practice among midlevel practitioners (MLPs) such as clinical officers, nurses, and midwives. The Integrated Infectious Diseases Capacity Building Evaluation compared training alone with training combined with on-site support (OSS). METHODS: Two MLPs each from 36 health facilities attended the 5-week Integrated Management of Infectious Disease training. After training, 18 facilities randomly assigned to arm A received OSS for 9 months, whereas 18 arm B facilities did not. Clinical faculty assessed MLP HIV clinical practice on 6 tasks: history taking, physical examination, laboratory investigations, diagnosis, treatment, and patient education. We analyzed the effect of training alone and training combined with OSS as the pre/post change within each arm. We analyzed the incremental effect of OSS with a difference-in-difference analysis that compared changes between arms. RESULTS: Training alone and training combined with OSS significantly improved clinical practice in patient history taking (13% and 24% increase, respectively), physical examination (54% and 71%), laboratory investigations (32% and 20%), and diagnosis (31% and 51%). Combined training and OSS also improved patient education significantly (72% increase). Effect sizes for training combined with OSS were larger than for training alone except for laboratory investigations, and the effects were robust in sensitivity analyses. The incremental effect of OSS on diagnosis was significant [adjusted relative risk = 1.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.00 to 1.50]. CONCLUSIONS: Combined training and OSS improved MLP HIV clinical practice over training alone and can contribute to continued expansion of access to antiretroviral therapy.

Impact of acute antibiotic therapy on the pulmonary exacerbation endpoint in cystic fibrosis clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: In a chronic disease setting such as cystic fibrosis (CF), antibiotics are often prescribed for emergent symptoms and it is unclear whether this affects endpoints in a clinical trial. Pulmonary exacerbations (PEs) are defined episodes of acute worsening and a key clinical efficacy measure in CF. Our hypothesis was that acute antibiotics given for illnesses not meeting the PE definition may alter estimates of treatment effect that do not account for this antibiotic use. METHODS: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of azithromycin (AZ) including 260 participants with CF was utilized for this study. PEs were defined using a priori criteria. Physician initiated antibiotic therapy (PIT) not meeting the PE endpoint was characterized and its impact on treatment effect assessed. RESULTS: 40% (104/260) of participants were prescribed 188 courses of PIT in the absence of a PE; 19% (25/129) of placebo and 10% (13/131) of AZ participants received ≥2 courses of PIT and never fulfilled the PE definition (9% difference, 95% confidence interval: 1%, 18%, p = 0.04). Accounting for PIT through use of a composite endpoint including time to PE or need for repeated PIT altered treatment effect estimates (a 56% reduction in the event rate comparing AZ to placebo [p < 0.0001] as compared to a 50% reduction not accounting for PIT [p = 0.003]). CONCLUSION: PIT is common in CF and may impact treatment effect estimates. Optimization of the PE endpoint to include meaningful events necessitating treatment may improve our ability to conduct efficient trials by reducing the sample size 30-50%, ultimately enabling rapid evaluation of new therapies.