Integrating static and modifiable risk factors in violence risk assessment for forensic psychiatric patients: a feasibility study of FoVOx.

INTRODUCTION: Risk assessment is integral to forensic psychiatry. Previous work has highlighted the benefits of using scalable and evidence-based actuarial risk tools developed within forensic populations, such as the online Forensic Psychiatry and Violence Oxford (FoVOx) violence risk assessment tool. We examined the feasibility of using FoVOx in a Swedish forensic cohort and tested whether adding modifiable (dynamic) factors would increase its useability to clinicians. METHODS: We completed FoVOx assessments on all patients discharged from forensic psychiatric hospitals in Stockholm County, Sweden, between 2012 and 2017 and investigated recidivism rates. In addition, interviews were conducted with the clinicians responsible for each patient on the perceived accuracy, usefulness, and impact of FoVOx, which was examined using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Ninety-five discharges from forensic psychiatric hospitals were followed up. The median FoVOx score was a 7% likelihood of violent reoffending in two years after discharge. Six discharged patients (6%) were confirmed as violent recidivists using official records with a similar distribution of FoVOx risk categories as the rest of the sample. FoVOx was considered accurate by clinicians in more than half of cases, who suggested that modifiable risk factors could be added to increase acceptability. All clinicians thought that FoVOx was useful, and in 20% of discharges, it would have materially altered patient care. Overall, FoVOx was thought to impact decision-making and risk management, was practical to use, and could be completed without reference to written case material. CONCLUSION: Completing FoVOx in forensic psychiatric hospitals can complement current approaches to clinical decision-making on violence risk assessment and management.

Selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors and the risk of violent suicide: a nationwide postmortem study.

PURPOSE: We endeavored to investigate whether previous findings of an association between antemortem exposure to selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRI) and method of suicide could be replicated. METHODS: Using the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine's toxicology database and the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's national registries of causes of death and prescriptions, 10,002 incidents of suicide were retrieved. Risks of violent suicide conferred by SSRIs, expressed as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were estimated using logistic regression. In accordance with previous work, suicide by violent means-cases-were defined as death attributable to causes designated by ICD-10 codes X70-X83 and Y20-Y33; and suicide by non-violent means-controls-by codes X60-X69 and Y10-Y19. RESULTS: Our results imply that SSRI exposure confers a risk of violent suicide for shorter treatment durations; and that antemortem exposure to other substances (including illegal drugs) confounds estimates of risk. After adjustment for age, sex, and other substances, SSRIs treatment not exceeding 28 days conferred an almost fourfold risk of violent suicide (OR 3.6 [95% CI 1.9-6.8]), a finding partly in line with a recent Swedish study that employed a case-crossover design. CONCLUSIONS: Although risks associated with shorter treatment duration may reflect latencies to onset of therapeutic effect, it is unclear how latencies would influence the choice of suicide method, unless conditions for which SSRIs are prescribed are themselves associated with violent suicide. Finally, in the total dataset, SSRIs were not associated with an increased risk of violent suicide; however, by adjusting for other substances, we avoided the spurious conclusion that the effect of medications in this regard is protective.

Adherence to psychotropic medication in completed suicide in Sweden 2006-2013: a forensic-toxicological matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of adherence to psychotropic medications upon the risk of completed suicide by comparing person-level prescriptions and postmortem toxicological findings among complete-suicide cases and non-suicide controls in Sweden 2006-2013. METHODS: Using national registries with full coverage on dispensed prescriptions, results of medico-legal autopsies, causes of death, and diagnoses from inpatient care, estimated continuous drug use for 30 commonly prescribed psychotropic medications was compared with forensic-toxicological findings. Subjects who had died by suicide (cases) were matched (1:2) with subjects who had died of other causes (controls) for age, sex, and year of death. Odds ratios were calculated using logistic regression to estimate the risk of completed suicide conferred by partial adherence and non-adherence to pharmacotherapy. Adjustments were made for previous inpatient care and the ratio of initiated and discontinued dispensed prescriptions, a measure of the continued need of treatment preceding death. RESULTS: In 5294 suicide cases and 9879 non-suicide controls, after adjusting for the dispensation ratio and other covariates, partial adherence and non-adherence to antipsychotics were associated with 6.7-fold and 12.4-fold risks of completed suicide, respectively, whereas corresponding risk estimates for antidepressant treatment were not statistically significant and corresponding risk increases for incomplete adherence to antidepressant treatment were lower (1.6-fold and 1.5-fold, respectively) and lacked statistical significance. CONCLUSION: After adjustment for the need of treatment, biochemically verified incomplete adherence to antipsychotic pharmacotherapy was associated with markedly increased risks of completed suicide.

Comparison of dispensed medications and forensic-toxicological findings to assess pharmacotherapy in the Swedish population 2006 to 2013.

PURPOSE: To investigate person-level agreement between medication exposure as predicted using the PRE2DUP (a prescription-based design to estimate continuous drug use) method and postmortem toxicological findings, in the Swedish population during the years 2006 to 2013. METHODS: Using the Swedish National Board of Forensic Medicine's toxicology database and the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's registries on causes of death, dispensed medications, and in-patient care, forensic-toxicological findings were compared with prescription-based estimates of drug use for 27 medications. We modeled expected drug-use periods with the PRE2DUP using an algorithm of demonstrated high validity that evaluates personal drug-purchasing patterns with consideration to possible stockpiling of drugs and package information. Excluding criteria included self-inflicted death and recent in-patient care. RESULTS: In data from 18 627 performed autopsies, as well as 10 160 instances of dispensed drug use, the agreement between PRE2DUP drug-use periods and forensic toxicology was, overall, moderate (Cohen's kappa: 0.56 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.55-0.57]) with a positive predictive value, or predicted adherence rate, of 46.0%. The group-level predicted adherence and agreement were highest for antidepressants, at 71.0% (Cohen's kappa: 0.74 [CI: 0.73-0.76]), and lowest for cardiovascular drugs, at 21.5% (Cohen's kappa: 0.33 [CI: 0.31-0.36]). Predicted recreational use (negative predictive value) was low for all investigated drugs (0.0%-1.4%). The biological half-life explained 29% (P = 0.003) of the variability of the false-positive rate. CONCLUSIONS: Measured agreement between PRE2DUP-based drug-use estimates and forensic-toxicological findings is dependent upon a number of factors, including true continuous drug use and postmortem detectability of the investigated drugs, as well as the occurrence of unconventional dosing and true non-adherence.

Glucose metabolism in completed suicide: a forensic-pathological pilot study.

AIM: To determine whether antemortem blood levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and glucose predict completed suicide and, by extension, whether markers of glucose metabolism might be associated with a prosuicidal trait or state. METHOD: From consecutively performed autopsies, samples of blood and vitreous humor from 17 suicide victims and 27 non-suicide controls were compared with regard to levels of glucose, lactate, and HbA1c. RESULTS: Mean HbA1c was higher, and mean estimated blood glucose lower, among suicide victims, although tests revealed no significant differences (P=0.171 and P=0.395, respectively). HbA1c levels exceeding 48.0 mmol/mol, which were indicative of persistent hyperglycemia, were twice as common in suicide victims (59% vs 30%; P=0.068). CONCLUSION: The finding of this pilot study suggest that deranged glucose metabolism may reflect biological events antecedent to, or concomitant with, completed suicide, with the following clinical implications: recurring hyperglycemia due to defective glucose transport, which may give rise to depression and suicidal ideation, and elevated HbA1c levels, which may represent an assayable correlate to neurobiological conditions predisposing to suicide.

Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS: The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high inflation and low GDP per capita, while female suicides correlated negatively with inflation. Both male and female suicides correlated with low temperature. DISCUSSION: The current study reports that the climatic effect (cold climate) is stronger than the economic one, but both are present. It seems that in Europe suicidality follows the climate/temperature cline which interestingly is not from south to north but from south to north-east. This raises concerns that climate change could lead to an increase in suicide rates. The current study is essentially the first successful attempt to explain the differences across countries in Europe; however, it is an observational analysis based on aggregate data and thus there is a lack of control for confounders.

Duration of forensic psychiatric care and subsequent criminal recidivism in individuals sentenced in Sweden between 2009 and 2019.

Background: The duration of forensic psychiatric care is in Sweden not determined at the time of sentencing; instead, offenders are regularly evaluated, often with regard to risk of criminal recidivism. The length and justifiability of such a sanction have been greatly debated; however, previous estimates of treatment duration based on datasets delimited to discharged patients-have provided an uncertain groundwork for these deliberations. The aim of this study was to use a more suitable approach to calculate average duration of forensic psychiatric care and to examine the relationship between length of treatment and subsequent recidivism after discharge. Methods: This retrospective cohort study focused on offenders sentenced to forensic psychiatric care in Sweden between 2009 and 2019 and registered in the Swedish National Forensic Psychiatric Register (n = 2064), with a follow-up period until May 2020. We used Kaplan-Meier estimator to calculate and visualize treatment duration including analyses comparing levels of relevant variables, and then evaluated criminal recidivism in patients discharged from treatment between 2009 and 2019 (n = 640), after stratification for the same variables and dichotomization by treatment duration. Results: The median duration of forensic psychiatric care was estimated to 89.7 months (95% CI 83.2-95.8). Treatment was longer in offenders who committed violent crimes, suffered from psychosis, or had a history of substance use disorder, and in offenders whose sentences included special court supervision. The cumulative incidence of recidivism in patients discharged from treatment was estimated to 13.5% at 12 months (95% CI 10.6-16.2) and 19.5% at 24 months (95% CI 16.0-22.8). Corresponding cumulative incidence of violent crime post discharge was 6.3% at 12 months (95% CI 4.3-8.3) and 9.9% at 24 months (95% CI 7.3-12.4). Among other findings, in patients without a history of substance use disorder and patients whose sentences did not include special court supervision, recidivism was significantly higher in those with a shorter treatment duration. Conclusion: Using the entirety of a suitable, contemporary, prospectively enrolled cohort of mentally ill offenders, we were able to estimate-with greater accuracy than previous studies-the average duration of Swedish forensic psychiatric care and rate of subsequent criminal recidivism.

General and violent recidivism of former forensic psychiatric patients in Finland.

Background: Forensic psychiatric care in Finland is provided to individuals who have committed a crime due to a serious mental disorder and are in need of psychiatric care. The reconviction (recidivism) rates for this patient group vary in time and between countries, likely due to different treatment practices and requirements for forensic care. Materials and methods: We set out to study criminal recidivism in a national cohort of all patients released from forensic psychiatric care in Finland between 1999 and 2018. National registries were used to identify the patients and gain information on their criminal sentences. Forensic psychiatric examinations were used to record demographic information for the cohort. The cohort was followed up from hospital discharge to the end of 2019. Results: We identified a total of 501 patients who were released from forensic psychiatric care (mean age: 46.6 years [SD 13.4), 434 (86.6%) were male). The mean and median times spent in treatment for the cohort was 10.0 years [SD 6.5] and 8.7 years, respectively. 91% of the patients had schizophrenia spectrum disorder (F2*), and 63.5% had a substance use disorder. A total of 83 patients (16.6%) committed any crime after being released from care, and the mean time to recidivism was 3.8 years. The recidivism rate was 2015 per 100,000 person years. A total of 48 patients (9.6%) committed a violent crime. The mean time to violent recidivism was 4.2 years. The violent recidivism rate was 1,083 per 100,000 person years. A longer duration of treatment was associated with a decreased risk of general recidivism (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.00, p = 0.05). Factors associated with higher recidivism were male sex, having a comorbid substance use disorder and younger age at discharge. Conclusion: The recidivism rate in Finland was markedly lower than has been previously reported for other Western countries, and the mean duration of treatment was also longer. A longer treatment time may reduce the risk of criminal recidivism in forensic psychiatric patients. The results suggest, as previous studies have found, that more effort is indicated on the treatment of substance abuse.

Pre-offense alcohol intake in homicide offenders and victims: A forensic-toxicological case-control study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Alcohol is associated with violent behavior, although little is known regarding to what extent alcohol increases homicide risk. We aimed to estimate risks of homicide offending and victimization conferred by the presence of ethanol in blood by using toxicological data from homicide victims and offenders and from controls who had died in vehicle-related accidents. METHODS: From nationwide governmental registries and databases, forensic-toxicological results were retrieved for victims (n = 200) and offenders (n = 105) of homicides committed during the years 2007-2009 and individuals killed in vehicle-related accidents (n = 1629) during the years 2006-2014. Ethanol levels in blood exceeding 0.01 g/100 ml were considered positive. RESULTS: Using logistic regression, we found that the presence of ethanol in blood conferred a significantly increased risk of homicide offending (age-adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.6, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 2.3-5.6) and homicide victimization (aOR = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.4-3.0). After stratification by sex, risk estimates in females were about 3-fold greater than in males for both homicide offending ([aOR = 11.0, 95% CI = 2.4-49.8] versus [aOR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.9-4.9]) and victimization ([aOR = 5.4, 95% CI = 2.4-12.2] versus [aOR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.8]). Sensitivity analyses yielded similar estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study are consistent with prior findings suggesting alcohol to be an important risk factor for homicide offending and victimization. Surprisingly, however, associations were more pronounced in females, although additional studies that control for potential confounders are warranted to facilitate speculations about causality.

Psychotropic Medications in Swedish Homicide Victims and Offenders: A Forensic-Toxicological Case-Control Study of Adherence and Recreational Use.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the extent to which adherence to, and recreational use of, psychotropic medications influence the risk of homicide offending and victimization. METHODS: We conducted a population-based case-control study by way of linking a nationwide registry of dispensed prescriptions with a forensic-toxicological database. Homicide victims (n = 200) and offenders (n = 105) were identified for the years 2007-2009 and vehicle-accident controls (n = 1,643) for the years 2006-2013. The occurrence of congruence and incongruence between dispensed prescriptions and toxicology was used as a measure of adherence and recreational use. RESULTS: For antidepressants, incongruence-but not congruence-between dispensed prescriptions and toxicology was associated with a significantly increased risk of homicide offending (odds ratio adjusted for age and sex [aOR] = 6.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.3-11.6) but not homicide victimization (aOR = 0.8; 95% CI, 0.3-2.0). For antipsychotics and mood stabilizers, a significantly increased risk of homicide offending was associated with incongruence between prescriptions and toxicology (aOR = 7.0; 95% CI, 2.8-17.7), whereas risk estimates for congruence were not significantly elevated for either homicide offending or victimization. For GABAergic hypnotics, congruence and incongruence were significantly associated with increased risks of both homicide offending (aOR = 5.4; 95% CI, 2.6-11.0 and aOR = 4.9; 95% CI, 2.6-9.3, respectively) and homicide victimization (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.1-4.2 and aOR = 3.2; 95% CI, 1.7-6.1, respectively). Sensitivity analyses with a subset of controls yielded similar estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Nonadherence to medications used to treat affective and psychotic disorders appears to elevate the risk of homicide offending. Both medicinal and recreational use of GABAergic hypnotics appears to elevate the risk of homicide offending and victimization. In summary, vigilance regarding adherence to medications prescribed for mood disorders and psychosis, as well as restrictiveness regarding licit and illicit access to addictive hypnotics, might contribute to a reduction of homicidal violence.

Sandbox University: estimating influence of institutional action.

The approach presented in this article represents a generalizable and adaptable methodology for identifying complex interactions in educational systems and for investigating how manipulation of these systems may affect educational outcomes of interest. Multilayer Minimum Spanning Tree and Monte-Carlo methods are used. A virtual Sandbox University is created in order to facilitate effective identification of successful and stable initiatives within higher education, which can affect students' credits and student retention - something that has been lacking up until now. The results highlight the importance of teacher feedback and teacher-student rapport, which is congruent with current educational findings, illustrating the methodology's potential to provide a new basis for further empirical studies of issues in higher education from a complex systems perspective.

Acetonation of L-pentoses and 6-deoxy-L-hexoses under kinetic control using heterogeneous acid catalysts.

The fibrous polymer-supported sulfonic acid catalyst Smopex-101 H+ proved to be an efficient catalyst for the preparation of O-isopropylidene derivatives from a series of rare sugars. Acetonation of the reducing sugars L-arabinose, L-ribose, L-xylose, L-fucose, and L-rhamnose in N,N-dimethylformamide by 2,2-dimethoxypropane or 2-methoxypropene led to the formation of the kinetically favored di-O- and/or mono-O-isopropylidene derivatives in 46-88% yields. The method consists of a simple experimental procedure which does not require predried solvents or reagents. The catalyst is easily recovered and can be regenerated making the procedure economically viable even for large-scale synthesis.

Reaction kinetics and mechanism of acid-catalyzed anomerization of 1-O-acetyl-2,3,5-tri-O-benzoyl-L-ribofuranose.

The mechanism of the acid-catalyzed anomerization of 1-O-acetyl-2,3,5-O-benzoyl-alpha- and -beta-L-ribofuranoses in different acetic acid-acetic anhydride mixtures was investigated. The progress of the reactions was followed by NMR spectroscopy and the rate constants for the reactions were determined by the use of a kinetic model. The site of anomeric activation was clarified by the use of (13)C-labeled acetic acid and acetic anhydride, respectively, proving that the anomerization takes place by exocyclic C-O cleavage, thus ruling out anomerization via acyclic intermediates. The role of the acetyl cation as the catalytically active species was further verified.