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Autonomic nerves control organ function through the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches, which have opposite effects. In the bone marrow, sympathetic (adrenergic) nerves promote hematopoiesis; however, how parasympathetic (cholinergic) signals modulate hematopoiesis is unclear. Here, we show that B lymphocytes are an important source of acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter of the parasympathetic nervous system, which reduced hematopoiesis. Single-cell RNA sequencing identified nine clusters of cells that expressed the cholinergic α7 nicotinic receptor (Chrna7) in the bone marrow stem cell niche, including endothelial and mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs). Deletion of B cell-derived acetylcholine resulted in the differential expression of various genes, including Cxcl12 in leptin receptor+ (LepR+) stromal cells. Pharmacologic inhibition of acetylcholine signaling increased the systemic supply of inflammatory myeloid cells in mice and humans with cardiovascular disease.
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Acetilcolina , Hematopoese , Animais , Linfócitos B , Colinérgicos , Hematopoese/genética , Camundongos , Nicho de Células-TroncoRESUMO
In patients with immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP), autoantibodies against the metalloprotease ADAMTS13 lead to catastrophic microvascular thrombosis. However, the potential benefits of recombinant human ADAMTS13 (rADAMTS13) in patients with iTTP remain unknown. Here, we report the clinical use of rADAMTS13, which resulted in the rapid suppression of disease activity and complete recovery in a critically ill patient whose condition had proved to be refractory to all available treatments. We also show that rADAMTS13 causes immune complex formation, which saturates the autoantibody and may promote its clearance. Our data support the role of rADAMTS13 as a novel adjunctive therapy in patients with iTTP.
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Proteína ADAMTS13 , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Trombótica , Feminino , Humanos , Proteína ADAMTS13/imunologia , Proteína ADAMTS13/uso terapêutico , Complexo Antígeno-Anticorpo/sangue , Complexo Antígeno-Anticorpo/imunologia , Autoanticorpos/sangue , Autoanticorpos/imunologia , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Trombótica/diagnóstico , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Trombótica/tratamento farmacológico , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Trombótica/imunologia , Púrpura Trombocitopênica Trombótica/terapia , Proteínas Recombinantes/imunologia , Proteínas Recombinantes/uso terapêutico , Adulto , Negro ou Afro-Americano , Troca Plasmática , Resultado do TratamentoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The function of the thymus in human adults is unclear, and routine removal of the thymus is performed in a variety of surgical procedures. We hypothesized that the adult thymus is needed to sustain immune competence and overall health. METHODS: We evaluated the risk of death, cancer, and autoimmune disease among adult patients who had undergone thymectomy as compared with demographically matched controls who had undergone similar cardiothoracic surgery without thymectomy. T-cell production and plasma cytokine levels were also compared in a subgroup of patients. RESULTS: After exclusions, 1420 patients who had undergone thymectomy and 6021 controls were included in the study; 1146 of the patients who had undergone thymectomy had a matched control and were included in the primary cohort. At 5 years after surgery, all-cause mortality was higher in the thymectomy group than in the control group (8.1% vs. 2.8%; relative risk, 2.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 4.8), as was the risk of cancer (7.4% vs. 3.7%; relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.2). Although the risk of autoimmune disease did not differ substantially between the groups in the overall primary cohort (relative risk, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8 to 1.4), a difference was found when patients with preoperative infection, cancer, or autoimmune disease were excluded from the analysis (12.3% vs. 7.9%; relative risk, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.2). In an analysis involving all patients with more than 5 years of follow-up (with or without a matched control), all-cause mortality was higher in the thymectomy group than in the general U.S. population (9.0% vs. 5.2%), as was mortality due to cancer (2.3% vs. 1.5%). In the subgroup of patients in whom T-cell production and plasma cytokine levels were measured (22 in the thymectomy group and 19 in the control group; mean follow-up, 14.2 postoperative years), those who had undergone thymectomy had less new production of CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes than controls (mean CD4+ signal joint T-cell receptor excision circle [sjTREC] count, 1451 vs. 526 per microgram of DNA [P = 0.009]; mean CD8+ sjTREC count, 1466 vs. 447 per microgram of DNA [P<0.001]) and higher levels of proinflammatory cytokines in the blood. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, all-cause mortality and the risk of cancer were higher among patients who had undergone thymectomy than among controls. Thymectomy also appeared be associated with an increased risk of autoimmune disease when patients with preoperative infection, cancer, or autoimmune disease were excluded from the analysis. (Funded by the Tracey and Craig A. Huff Harvard Stem Cell Institute Research Support Fund and others.).
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Doenças Autoimunes , Timectomia , Humanos , Adulto , Timectomia/efeitos adversos , Timo , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos , Citocinas , Doenças Autoimunes/complicaçõesRESUMO
This study aimed to identify the predictive capacity of wellness questionnaires on measures of training load using machine learning methods. The distributions of, and dose-response between, wellness and other load measures were also examined, offering insights into response patterns. Data (n= 14,109) were collated from an athlete management systems platform (Catapult Sports, Melbourne, Australia) and were split across three sports (cricket, rugby league and football) with data analysis conducted in R (Version 3.4.3). Wellness (sleep quality, readiness to train, general muscular soreness, fatigue, stress, mood, recovery rating and motivation) as the dependent variable, and sRPE, sRPE-TL and markers of external load (total distance and m.min-1) as independent variables were included for analysis. Classification and regression tree models showed high cross-validated error rates across all sports (i.e., > 0.89) and low model accuracy (i.e., < 5% of variance explained by each model) with similar results demonstrated using random forest models. These results suggest wellness items have limited predictive capacity in relation to internal and external load measures. This result was consistent despite varying statistical approaches (regression, classification and random forest models) and transformation of wellness scores. These findings indicate practitioners should exercise caution when interpreting and applying wellness responses.
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Nível de Saúde , Aprendizado de Máquina , Condicionamento Físico Humano/fisiologia , Condicionamento Físico Humano/psicologia , Esportes/fisiologia , Esportes/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Afeto , Críquete/fisiologia , Críquete/psicologia , Árvores de Decisões , Fadiga/diagnóstico , Futebol Americano/fisiologia , Futebol Americano/psicologia , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Humanos , Motivação , Mialgia/diagnóstico , Percepção/fisiologia , Esforço Físico/fisiologia , Análise de Regressão , Sono/fisiologia , Futebol/fisiologia , Futebol/psicologia , Estresse Psicológico/diagnóstico , Dispositivos Eletrônicos VestíveisRESUMO
Iron-deficiency contributes to a â¼50% of anemia prevalence worldwide, but reference intervals for iron status tests are not optimized for anemia diagnosis. To address this limitation, we identified the serum ferritin (SF) thresholds associated with hematologic decline in iron-deficient patients, and the SF thresholds from which an SF increase was associated with hematologic improvement. Paired red blood cell and SF measurements were analysed from two adult cohorts at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), from 2008-2011 (N = 48 409), and 2016-2018 (N = 10 042). Inter-patient measurements in the first cohort were used to define optimal SF thresholds based on the physiologic relationship between SF and red cell measurements. Intra-patient measurements (1-26 weeks apart) in the second cohort were used to identify SF thresholds from which an SF increase was associated, with an increase in red cell measurements. The identified optimal SF thresholds varied with age, sex and red cell measure. Thresholds associated with a â¼5% decline in red cell index were typically in the range 10-25 ng/mL. Thresholds for younger women (18-45 year) were â¼5 ng/mL lower than for older women (60-95 years), and â¼10 ng/mL lower than for men. Thresholds from which a subsequent increase in SF was associated with a concomitant increase in red cell measure showed similar patterns: younger women had lower thresholds (â¼15 ng/mL) than older women (â¼25 ng/mL), or men (â¼35 ng/mL). These results suggest that diagnostic accuracy may be improved by setting different SF thresholds for younger women, older women, and men. This study illustrates how clinical databases may provide physiologic evidence for improved diagnostic thresholds.
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Anemia Ferropriva/sangue , Eritrócitos/metabolismo , Ferritinas/sangue , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Anemia Ferropriva/fisiopatologia , Contagem de Eritrócitos , Eritrócitos/patologia , Feminino , Hemoglobinas/metabolismo , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Rationale: Asthma is characterized by disease within the small airways. Several studies have suggested that forced oscillation technique-derived resistance at 5 Hz (R5) - resistance at 20 Hz (R20) is a measure of small airway disease; however, there has been limited validation of this measurement to date.Objectives: To validate the use of forced oscillation R5 - R20 as a measure of small airway narrowing in asthma, and to investigate the role that small airway narrowing plays in asthma.Methods: Patient-based complete conducting airway models were generated from computed tomography scans to simulate the impact of different degrees of airway narrowing at different levels of the airway tree on forced oscillation R5 - R20 (n = 31). The computational models were coupled with regression models in an asthmatic cohort (n = 177) to simulate the impact of small airway narrowing on asthma control and quality of life. The computational models were used to predict the impact on small airway narrowing of type-2 targeting biologics using pooled data from two similarly design randomized, placebo-controlled biologic trials (n = 137).Measurements and Main Results: Simulations demonstrated that narrowing of the small airways had a greater impact on R5 - R20 than narrowing of the larger airways and was associated (above a threshold of approximately 40% narrowing) with marked deterioration in both asthma control and asthma quality of life, above the minimal clinical important difference. The observed treatment effect on R5 - R20 in the pooled trials equated to a predicted small airway narrowing reversal of approximately 40%.Conclusions: We have demonstrated, using computational modeling, that forced oscillation R5 - R20 is a direct measure of anatomical narrowing in the small airways and that small airway narrowing has a marked impact on both asthma control and quality of life and may be modified by biologics.
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Remodelação das Vias Aéreas/fisiologia , Asma/diagnóstico , Asma/fisiopatologia , Asma/terapia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/diagnóstico , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/fisiopatologia , Doença Pulmonar Obstrutiva Crônica/terapia , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Anatômicos , Testes de Função Respiratória/métodos , Espirometria/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Asthma is a disease characterized by ventilation heterogeneity (VH). A number of studies have demonstrated that VH markers derived by using impulse oscillometry (IOS) or multiple-breath washout (MBW) are associated with key asthmatic patient-related outcome measures and airways hyperresponsiveness. However, the topographical mechanisms of VH in the lung remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: We hypothesized that specific regionalization of topographical small-airway disease would best account for IOS- and MBW-measured indices in patients. METHODS: We evaluated the results of paired expiratory/inspiratory computed tomography in a cohort of asthmatic (n = 41) and healthy (n = 11) volunteers to understand the determinants of clinical VH indices commonly reported by using IOS and MBW. Parametric response mapping (PRM) was used to calculate the functional small-airways disease marker PRMfSAD and Hounsfield unit (HU)-based density changes from total lung capacity to functional residual capacity (ΔHU); gradients of ΔHU in gravitationally perpendicular (parallel) inferior-superior (anterior-posterior) axes were quantified. RESULTS: The ΔHU gradient in the inferior-superior axis provided the highest level of discrimination of both acinar VH (measured by using phase 3 slope analysis of multiple-breath washout data) and resistance at 5 Hz minus resistance at 20 Hz measured by using impulse oscillometry (R5-R20) values. Patients with a high inferior-superior ΔHU gradient demonstrated evidence of reduced specific ventilation in the lower lobes of the lungs and high levels of PRMfSAD. A computational small-airway tree model confirmed that constriction of gravitationally dependent, lower-zone, small-airway branches would promote the largest increases in R5-R20 values. Ventilation gradients correlated with asthma control and quality of life but not with exacerbation frequency. CONCLUSIONS: Lower lobe-predominant small-airways disease is a major driver of clinically measured VH in adults with asthma.
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Asma/diagnóstico por imagem , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagem , Adulto , Idoso , Asma/tratamento farmacológico , Asma/fisiopatologia , Broncodilatadores/uso terapêutico , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Humanos , Pulmão/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Capacidade VitalAssuntos
Asma , Humanos , Asma/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pulmão/fisiopatologia , AdultoAssuntos
Asma , Bronquíolos , Humanos , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagem , Ventilação Pulmonar , RespiraçãoRESUMO
PURPOSE: Identifying thresholds at which the ROX index would satisfactorily predict HFNC failure across heterogenous resourced contexts is necessary for clinical use. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years admitted to 30 diverse ICUs across 10 states in India who required HFNC for respiratory support were retrospectively included in this study. Patient data and hourly ROX indices were then analyzed and contextualized to clinical outcomes as well as with ROX index thresholds in other regions of the world. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among the 614 patients included, 276 (44.9%) required respiratory escalation. Pneumonia was the most common diagnosis on admission. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that a baseline ROX score of 7.86 was similar to 4.88 in other populations which was confirmed by Kaplan-Mier curves (hazard ratio,3.58 (2.72-4.69, p < 0.001)). ROX scores at 11.84 or 5.89 had roles in screening and confirming HFNC failure. The index performed poorly in a subset of patients who died without respiratory escalation. The ROX index was most predictive in the initial hours of ICU admission and a longer duration of HFNC was associated with more severe outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: When optimally calibrated this index can using a method that can reliably predict the risk of HFNC failure among ICU patients from diverse settings.
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Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Humanos , Índia , Masculino , Feminino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Oxigenoterapia , Adulto , Curva ROC , Idoso , Insuficiência Respiratória/terapia , Insuficiência Respiratória/diagnóstico , CalibragemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Data supporting dementia as a risk factor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality relied on ICD-10 codes, yet nearly 40% of individuals with probable dementia lack a formal diagnosis. Dementia coding is not well established for people with HIV (PWH), and its reliance may affect risk assessment. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis of PWH with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR positivity includes comparisons to people without HIV (PWoH), matched by age, sex, race, and zipcode. Primary exposures were dementia diagnosis, by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes, and cognitive concerns, defined as possible cognitive impairment up to 12âmonths before COVID-19 diagnosis after clinical review of notes from the electronic health record. Logistic regression models assessed the effect of dementia and cognitive concerns on odds of death [odds ratio (OR); 95% CI (95% confidence interval)]; models adjusted for VACS Index 2.0. RESULTS: Sixty-four PWH were identified out of 14â129 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and matched to 463 PWoH. Compared with PWoH, PWH had a higher prevalence of dementia (15.6% vs. 6%, P â=â0.01) and cognitive concerns (21.9% vs. 15.8%, P â=â0.04). Death was more frequent in PWH ( P â<â0.01). Adjusted for VACS Index 2.0, dementia [2.4 (1.0-5.8), P â=â0.05] and cognitive concerns [2.4 (1.1-5.3), P â=â0.03] were associated with increased odds of death. In PWH, the association between cognitive concern and death trended towards statistical significance [3.92 (0.81-20.19), P â=â0.09]; there was no association with dementia. CONCLUSION: Cognitive status assessments are important for care in COVID-19, especially among PWH. Larger studies should validate findings and determine long-term COVID-19 consequences in PWH with preexisting cognitive deficits.
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COVID-19 , Demência , Infecções por HIV , Humanos , COVID-19/complicações , SARS-CoV-2 , Teste para COVID-19 , Estudos Retrospectivos , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Fatores de Risco , CogniçãoRESUMO
The complete blood count is an important screening tool for healthy adults and is the most commonly ordered test at periodic physical exams. However, results are usually interpreted relative to one-size-fits-all reference intervals, undermining the goal of precision medicine to tailor medical care to the needs of individual patients based on their unique characteristics. Here we show that standard complete blood count indices in healthy adults have robust homeostatic setpoints that are patient-specific and stable, with the typical healthy adult's set of 9 blood count setpoints distinguishable from 98% of others, and with these differences persisting for decades. These setpoints reflect a deep physiologic phenotype, enabling improved detection of both acquired and genetic determinants of hematologic regulation, including discovery of multiple novel loci via GWAS analyses. Patient-specific reference intervals derived from setpoints enable more accurate personalized risk assessment, and the setpoints themselves are significantly correlated with mortality risk, providing new opportunities to enhance patient-specific screening and early intervention. This study shows complete blood count setpoints are sufficiently stable and patient-specific to help realize the promise of precision medicine for healthy adults.
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Examination of red blood cell (RBC) morphology in peripheral blood smears can help diagnose hematologic diseases, even in resource-limited settings, but this analysis remains subjective and semiquantitative with low throughput. Prior attempts to develop automated tools have been hampered by their poor reproducibility and limited clinical validation. Here, we present a novel, open-source machine-learning approach (denoted as RBC-diff) to quantify abnormal RBCs in peripheral smear images and generate an RBC morphology differential. RBC-diff cell counts showed high accuracy for single-cell classification (mean AUC, 0.93) and quantitation across smears (mean R2, 0.76 compared with experts, interexperts R2, 0.75). RBC-diff counts were concordant with the clinical morphology grading for 300 000+ images and recovered the expected pathophysiologic signals in diverse clinical cohorts. Criteria using RBC-diff counts distinguished thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and hemolytic uremic syndrome from other thrombotic microangiopathies, providing greater specificity than clinical morphology grading (72% vs 41%; P < .001) while maintaining high sensitivity (94% to 100%). Elevated RBC-diff schistocyte counts were associated with increased 6-month all-cause mortality in a cohort of 58 950 inpatients (9.5% mortality for schist. >1%, vs 4.7% for schist; <0.5%; P < .001) after controlling for comorbidities, demographics, clinical morphology grading, and blood count indices. RBC-diff also enabled the estimation of single-cell volume-morphology distributions, providing insight into the influence of morphology on routine blood count measures. Our codebase and expert-annotated images are included here to spur further advancement. These results illustrate that computer vision can enable rapid and accurate quantitation of RBC morphology, which may provide value in both clinical and research contexts.
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Eritrócitos Anormais , Doenças Hematológicas , Processamento de Imagem Assistida por Computador , Humanos , Eritrócitos Anormais/citologia , Doenças Hematológicas/diagnóstico por imagem , Doenças Hematológicas/patologia , Prognóstico , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Processamento de Imagem Assistida por Computador/métodos , Processamento de Imagem Assistida por Computador/normas , Aprendizado de Máquina , Forma CelularRESUMO
We have previously identified bronchial generations 5-7 as the locus of maximum contribution to the convective portion of the phase III slope in computed tomography (CT)-based lung models of patients with asthma. In the present study, we examined how phase III slope is generated locally, by specifically interrogating at individual branch points, the necessary condition for a phase III slope to occur: some degree of convective flow sequencing between any two daughter branches that have a heterogeneity in gas washout concentration between them. Flow sequencing at individual branch points showed a wide range of values, including branch points where flow sequencing was such that phase III slopes were negative locally. Yet, the net effect in the 24 bronchial trees that we studied was that flow sequencing between pairs of less and better ventilated units most frequently drove positive phase III slopes in generations 5-7. By investigating the link of local flow sequencing between any two daughter branches to the corresponding heterogeneity of mechanical lung properties, heterogeneity of compliance was seen to be a major determinant of flow sequencing. In these bronchial structures, compliance heterogeneity was essentially brought about by volume asymmetry resulting from terminating pathways within the three-dimensional (3-D) confines of the lung contours. We conclude that the serial and parallel combination of lung mechanical properties at individual branch points in an asymmetrical branching network generates flow sequencing in mid-range conductive airways, leading to a positive at-mouth phase III slope.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Conceptually, the simplest way to obtain a sloping phase III during a washout exhalation is when there is convective flow sequencing between two lung units, such that the better ventilated unit contributes relatively more to exhaled flow at the beginning of phase III in the exhalation. Here, we show how compliance heterogeneity across the serial and parallel arrangement of branch points in bronchial trees of patients with asthma leads to flow sequencing, and thus phase III slopes of positive sign at the patient's mouth.
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Asma , Pulmão , Brônquios , Expiração , Humanos , Pulmão/diagnóstico por imagemRESUMO
Inflammation is the physiologic reaction to cellular and tissue damage caused by trauma, ischemia, infection, and other pathologic conditions. Elevation of white blood cell count (WBC) and altered levels of other acute phase reactants are cardinal signs of inflammation, but the dynamics of these changes and their resolution are not well established. Here we studied inflammatory recovery from trauma, ischemia, and infection by tracking longitudinal dynamics of clinical laboratory measurements in hospitalized patients. We identified a universal recovery trajectory defined by exponential WBC decay and delayed linear growth of platelet count (PLT). Co-regulation of WBC-PLT dynamics is a fundamental mechanism of acute inflammatory recovery and provides a generic approach for identifying high-risk patients: 32x relative risk (RR) of adverse outcomes for cardiac surgery, 9x RR of death from COVID-19, 9x RR of death from sepsis, and 5x RR of death from myocardial infarction.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Inflamação , Contagem de Leucócitos , Leucócitos , Contagem de PlaquetasRESUMO
Sudden cardiac death, arising from abnormal electrical conduction, occurs frequently in patients with coronary heart disease. Myocardial ischemia simultaneously induces arrhythmia and massive myocardial leukocyte changes. In this study, we optimized a mouse model in which hypokalemia combined with myocardial infarction triggered spontaneous ventricular tachycardia in ambulatory mice, and we showed that major leukocyte subsets have opposing effects on cardiac conduction. Neutrophils increased ventricular tachycardia via lipocalin-2 in mice, whereas neutrophilia associated with ventricular tachycardia in patients. In contrast, macrophages protected against arrhythmia. Depleting recruited macrophages in Ccr2 -/- mice or all macrophage subsets with Csf1 receptor inhibition increased both ventricular tachycardia and fibrillation. Higher arrhythmia burden and mortality in Cd36 -/- and Mertk -/- mice, viewed together with reduced mitochondrial integrity and accelerated cardiomyocyte death in the absence of macrophages, indicated that receptor-mediated phagocytosis protects against lethal electrical storm. Thus, modulation of leukocyte function provides a potential therapeutic pathway for reducing the risk of sudden cardiac death.
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Inflammation is the physiologic reaction to cellular and tissue damage caused by pathologic processes including trauma, infection, and ischemia 1 . Effective inflammatory responses integrate molecular and cellular functions to prevent further tissue damage, initiate repair, and restore homeostasis, while futile or dysfunctional responses allow escalating injury, delay recovery, and may hasten death 2 . Elevation of white blood cell count (WBC) and altered levels of other acute phase reactants are cardinal signs of inflammation, but the dynamics of these changes and their resolution are not established 3,4 . Patient responses appear to vary dramatically with no clearly defined signs of good prognosis, leaving physicians reliant on qualitative interpretations of laboratory trends 4,5 . We retrospectively, observationally studied the human acute inflammatory response to trauma, ischemia, and infection by tracking the longitudinal dynamics of cellular and serum markers in hospitalized patients. Unexpectedly, we identified a conserved pattern of recovery defined by co-regulation of WBC and platelet (PLT) populations. Across all inflammatory conditions studied, recovering patients followed a consistent WBC-PLT trajectory shape that is well-approximated by exponential WBC decay and delayed linear PLT growth. This recovery trajectory shape may represent a fundamental archetype of human physiologic response at the cellular population scale, and provides a generic approach for identifying high-risk patients: 32x relative risk of adverse outcomes for cardiac surgery patients, 9x relative risk of death for COVID-19, and 5x relative risk of death for myocardial infarction.
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BACKGROUND: The development and widespread use of an effective SARS-CoV-2 vaccine could prevent substantial morbidity and mortality associated with COVID-19 and mitigate the secondary effects associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions. METHODS: We used an age-structured, expanded SEIR model with social contact matrices to assess age-specific vaccine allocation strategies in India. We used state-specific age structures and disease transmission coefficients estimated from confirmed incident cases of COVID-19 between 1 July and 31 August 2020. Simulations were used to investigate the relative reduction in mortality and morbidity of vaccine allocation strategies based on prioritizing different age groups, and the interactions of these strategies with concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions. Given the uncertainty associated with COVID-19 vaccine development, we varied vaccine characteristics in the modelling simulations. RESULTS: Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older populations (i.e., >60 years) led to the greatest relative reduction in deaths, regardless of vaccine efficacy, control measures, rollout speed, or immunity dynamics. Preferential vaccination of this group often produced relatively higher total symptomatic infections and more pronounced estimates of peak incidence than other assessed strategies. Vaccine efficacy, immunity type, target coverage, and rollout speed significantly influenced overall strategy effectiveness, with the time taken to reach target coverage significantly affecting the relative mortality benefit comparative to no vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support global recommendations to prioritize COVID-19 vaccine allocation for older age groups. Relative differences between allocation strategies were reduced as the speed of vaccine rollout was increased. Optimal vaccine allocation strategies will depend on vaccine characteristics, strength of concurrent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and region-specific goals.