Coarse Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality: A Global Study in 205 Cities.

Rationale: The associations between ambient coarse particulate matter (PM2.5-10) and daily mortality are not fully understood on a global scale. Objectives: To evaluate the short-term associations between PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide. Methods: We collected daily mortality (total, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and air pollution data from 205 cities in 20 countries/regions. Concentrations of PM2.5-10 were computed as the difference between inhalable and fine PM. A two-stage time-series analytic approach was applied, with overdispersed generalized linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. We fitted two-pollutant models to test the independent effect of PM2.5-10 from copollutants (fine PM, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide). Exposure-response relationship curves were pooled, and regional analyses were conducted. Measurements and Main Results: A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5-10 concentration on lag 0-1 day was associated with increments of 0.51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18%-0.84%), 0.43% (95% CI, 0.15%-0.71%), and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.77%) in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. The associations varied by country and region. These associations were robust to adjustment by all copollutants in two-pollutant models, especially for PM2.5. The exposure-response curves for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality were positive, with steeper slopes at lower exposure ranges and without discernible thresholds. Conclusions: This study provides novel global evidence on the robust and independent associations between short-term exposure to ambient PM2.5-10 and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting the need to establish a unique guideline or regulatory limit for daily concentrations of PM2.5-10.

The impact of extreme temperatures on human mortality in the most populated cities of Romania.

The impact of extreme weather conditions on humans is one of the most important topics in biometeorology studies. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between temperature-related weather conditions and natural mortality in the five most populated cities of Romania, namely, Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Constanța, Iași, and Timișoara. The results of this study aim to bridge a gap in national research. In the present paper, we used daily natural mortality data and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) allowed us to identify weather conditions associated with natural mortality. The most important results are as follows: (i) a higher daily mortality is related to a high frequency of heat stress conditions; (ii) a higher maximum temperature increases the relative risk (RR) of natural mortality; (iii) the maximum number of fatalities is recorded on the first day of high-temperature events; and (iv) individuals much more easily adapt to cold stress conditions. The main conclusion in this study is that the inhabitants of the most populated cities in Romania are more sensitive to high-temperature stress than to low-temperature stress.

West Nile Virus infection in Northern Italy: Case-crossover study on the short-term effect of climatic parameters.

BACKGROUND: Changes in climatic conditions are hypothesized to play a role in the increasing number of West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreaks observed in Europe in recent years. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the association between WNV infection and climatic parameters recorded in the 8 weeks before the diagnosis in Northern Italy. METHODS: We collected epidemiological data about new infected cases for the period 2010-2015 from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) and meteorological data from 25 stations throughout the study area. Analyses were performed using a conditional Poisson regression with a time-stratified case-crossover design, specifically modified to account for seasonal variations. Exposures included weekly average of maximum temperatures, weekly average of mean temperatures, weekly average of minimum temperatures and weekly total precipitation. RESULTS: We found an association between incidence of WNV infection and temperatures recorded 5-6 weeks before diagnosis (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) for 1 °C increase in maximum temperatures at lag 6: 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.20). Increased weekly total precipitation, recorded 1-4 weeks before diagnosis, were associated with higher incidence of WNV infection, particularly for precipitation recorded 2 weeks before diagnosis (IRR for 5 mm increase of cumulative precipitation at lag 2: 1.16; 95% CI 1.08-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: Increased precipitation and temperatures might have a lagged direct effect on the incidence of WNV infection. Climatic parameters may be useful for detecting areas and periods of the year potentially characterized by a higher incidence of WNV infection.

The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: A time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis. RESULTS: We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This "U" shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25-44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually. CONCLUSIONS: An assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.

Role of climate in the spread of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infection among children.

Haemolytic-uraemic syndrome (HUS) is a rare disease mainly affecting children that develops as a complication of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection. It is characterised by acute kidney injury, platelet consumption and mechanical destruction of red blood cells (haemolysis). In order to test the working hypothesis that the spread of the infection is influenced by specific climatic conditions, we analysed all of the identified cases of infection occurring between June 2010 and December 2013 in four provinces of Lombardy, Italy (Milano, Monza Brianza, Varese and Brescia), in which a STEC surveillance system has been developed as part of a preventive programme. In the selected provinces, we recorded in few days a great number of cases and clusters which are unrelated for spatially distant or for the disease are caused by different STEC serotypes. In order to investigate a common factor that favoured the onset of infection, we have analysed in detail the weather conditions of the areas. The daily series of temperature, rain and relative humidity were studied to show the common climate peculiarities whilst the correlation coefficient and the principal component analysis (PCA) were used to point out the meteorological variable, maximum temperature, as the principal climate element in the onset of the infection. The use of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and the climate indices characterising heat waves (HWs) has allowed to identify the weather conditions associated with STEC infection. The study highlighted a close temporal correlation between STEC infection in children and the number, duration and frequency of heat waves. In particular, if the maximum temperature is greater than 90th percentile, days classified as very hot, for 3 or more consecutive days, the risk of infection is increasing.

Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence on short-term association between ambient carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality is inconclusive and limited to single cities, regions, or countries. Generalisation of results from previous studies is hindered by potential publication bias and different modelling approaches. We therefore assessed the association between short-term exposure to ambient CO and daily mortality in a multicity, multicountry setting. METHODS: We collected daily data on air pollution, meteorology, and total mortality from 337 cities in 18 countries or regions, covering various periods from 1979 to 2016. All included cities had at least 2 years of both CO and mortality data. We estimated city-specific associations using confounder-adjusted generalised additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, and then pooled the estimates, accounting for their statistical uncertainty, using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. We also assessed the overall shape of the exposure-response curve and evaluated the possibility of a threshold below which health is not affected. FINDINGS: Overall, a 1 mg/m3 increase in the average CO concentration of the previous day was associated with a 0·91% (95% CI 0·32-1·50) increase in daily total mortality. The pooled exposure-response curve showed a continuously elevated mortality risk with increasing CO concentrations, suggesting no threshold. The exposure-response curve was steeper at daily CO levels lower than 1 mg/m3, indicating greater risk of mortality per increment in CO exposure, and persisted at daily concentrations as low as 0·6 mg/m3 or less. The association remained similar after adjustment for ozone but was attenuated after adjustment for particulate matter or sulphur dioxide, or even reduced to null after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide. INTERPRETATION: This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020, UK Medical Research Council, and Natural Environment Research Council.

Short term associations of ambient nitrogen dioxide with daily total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality: multilocation analysis in 398 cities.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. DESIGN: Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. SETTING: 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. RESULTS: On average, a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm or ≤2.5 µm (PM10 and PM2.5, respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. CONCLUSIONS: This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO2.

Rainfall as primary driver of discharge and solute export from rock glaciers: The Col d'Olen Rock Glacier in the NW Italian Alps.

Three hypotheses exist to explain how meteorological variables drive the amount and concentration of solute-enriched water from rock glaciers: (1) Warm periods cause increased subsurface ice melt, which releases solutes; (2) rain periods and the melt of long-lasting snow enhance dilution of rock-glacier outflows; and (3) percolation of rain through rock glaciers facilitates the export of solutes, causing an opposite effect as that described in hypothesis (2). This lack of detailed understanding likely exists because suitable studies of meteorological variables, hydrologic processes and chemical characteristics of water bodies downstream from rock glaciers are unavailable. In this study, a rock-glacier pond in the North-Western Italian Alps was studied on a weekly basis for the ice-free seasons 2014 and 2015 by observing the meteorological variables (air temperature, snowmelt, rainfall) assumed to drive the export of solute-enriched waters from the rock glacier and the hydrochemical response of the pond (water temperature as a proxy of rock-glacier discharge, stable water isotopes, major ions and selected trace elements). An intra-seasonal pattern of increasing solute export associated with higher rock-glacier discharge was found. Specifically, rainfall, after the winter snowpack depletion and prolonged periods of atmospheric temperature above 0 °C, was found to be the primary driver of solute export from the rock glacier during the ice-free season. This occurs likely through the flushing of isotopically- and geochemically-enriched icemelt, causing concomitant increases in the rock-glacier discharge and the solute export (SO42-, Mg2+, Ca2+, Ni, Mn, Co). Moreover, flushing of microbially-active sediments can cause increases in NO3- export.