Air quality modeling in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil: A review.

Numerous studies have used air quality models to estimate pollutant concentrations in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) by using different inputs and assumptions. Our objectives are to summarize these studies, compare their performance, configurations, and inputs, and recommend areas of further research. We examined 29 air quality modeling studies that focused on ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) performed over the MASP, published from 2001 to 2023. The California Institute of Technology airshed model (CIT) was the most used offline model, while the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was the most used online model. Because the main source of air pollution in the MASP is the vehicular fleet, it is commonly used as the only anthropogenic input emissions. Simulation periods were typically the end of winter and during spring, seasons with higher O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. Model performance for hourly ozone is good with half of the studies with Pearson correlation above 0.6 and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 7.7 to 27.1 ppb. Fewer studies modeled PM2.5 and their performance is not as good as ozone estimates. Lack of information on emission sources, pollutant measurements, and urban meteorology parameters is the main limitation to perform air quality modeling. Nevertheless, researchers have used measurement campaign data to update emission factors, estimate temporal emission profiles, and estimate volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and aerosol speciation. They also tested different emission spatial disaggregation approaches and transitioned to global meteorological reanalysis with a higher spatial resolution. Areas of research to explore are further evaluation of models' physics and chemical configurations, the impact of climate change on air quality, the use of satellite data, data assimilation techniques, and using model results in health impact studies. This work provides an overview of advancements in air quality modeling within the MASP and offers practical approaches for modeling air quality in other South American cities with limited data, particularly those heavily impacted by vehicle emissions.

Land Use and Cover Changes versus climate shift: Who is the main player in river discharge? A case study in the Upper Paraná River Basin.

Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were assigned to the 1961-1990 period of simulations, representing land use and cover during a pristine period (around the Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. Thirteen years of precipitation before and after the climate shift (considered to be the period 1974-1977) were analyzed and compared. Results showed a precipitation increase for the basin in general after the climate shift. The increase in rainfall reached up to 15% in many northern areas and more than 20% in the southern parts of the basin. By comparing all simulations, results indicate that both LUCC and precipitation increase due to the climate shift had a significant effect on the changes in annual discharge of the largest rivers of the UPRB. However, the results suggest that the impact of the precipitation increase on the discharge exceeded that of the LUCC. Between 1960 and 1985 the LUCC accounts for about 16% of the increase of the median annual discharge, whereas climate shift accounts for an increase of about 32%. These findings, suggesting a more relevant role for the climate, are consistent with two recent water crisis experienced by the country in the last decades, caused by prolonged below-normal rainfall throughout 2001/2002 and again in 2014/2015.

Vehicular particulate matter emissions in road tunnels in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

In the metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil, ozone and particulate matter (PM) are the air pollutants that pose the greatest threat to air quality, since the PM and the ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) are the main source of air pollution from vehicular emissions. Vehicular emissions can be measured inside road tunnels, and those measurements can provide information about emission factors of in-use vehicles. Emission factors are used to estimate vehicular emissions and are described as the amount of species emitted per vehicle distance driven or per volume of fuel consumed. This study presents emission factor data for fine particles, coarse particles, inhalable particulate matter and black carbon, as well as size distribution data for inhalable particulate matter, as measured in March and May of 2004, respectively, in the Jânio Quadros and Maria Maluf road tunnels, both located in São Paulo. The Jânio Quadros tunnel carries mainly light-duty vehicles, whereas the Maria Maluf tunnel carries light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. In the Jânio Quadros tunnel, the estimated light-duty vehicle emission factors for the trace elements copper and bromine were 261 and 220 microg km(-1), respectively, and 16, 197, 127 and 92 mg km(-1), respectively, for black carbon, inhalable particulate matter, coarse particles and fine particles. The mean contribution of heavy-duty vehicles to the emissions of black carbon, inhalable particulate matter, coarse particles and fine particles was, respectively 29, 4, 6 and 6 times higher than that of light-duty vehicles. The inhalable particulate matter emission factor for heavy-duty vehicles was 1.2 times higher than that found during dynamometer testing. In general, the particle emissions in São Paulo tunnels are higher than those found in other cities of the world.

The Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): an integrated environmental model tuned for tropical areas.

We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System where different previous versions for weather, chemistry and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated software system. The new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. Together with the description of the main features are examples of the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America in different spatial resolutions using a scale-aware convective parameterization. Besides, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples present model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in Amazon Basin and Rio de Janeiro megacity. For tracer transport and dispersion, it is demonstrated the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-d redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano. Then, the gain of computational efficiency is described with some details. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding on its functionalities and skills are discussed. At last, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work on the building up of a South American community of model developers.

Potential health impact of ultrafine particles under clean and polluted urban atmospheric conditions: a model-based study.

The main goal of this study was to improve the knowledge of ultrafine particle number distributions in large urban areas and also to call the attention to the importance of these particles on assessing health risks. Measurements of aerosol size distributions were performed during 2 weeks, with distinct pollutant concentrations (polluted and clean periods), on the rooftop of a building located in downtown of the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil. CO, NO(2), PM(10), SO(2), and O(3) concentrations and meteorological variables were also used. Aerosol size distribution measurements showed that geometric mean diameters of the size spectra in the polluted period are on average considerably larger than those in the clean one. Besides the fact that total number of ultrafine particles did not show significant differences, during the polluted period, geometric mean diameter was larger than during the clean one. The results of a mathematical model of particle deposition on human respiratory tract indicated a more significant effect of smaller particles fraction of the spectra, which predominate under clean atmospheric conditions. The results also indicated that urban environmental conditions usually considered good for air quality, under the criteria of low mass concentration, do not properly serve as air quality standard to very small particles. In the size range of ultrafine particles, this traditional clean atmospheric condition can offer a strong risk to pulmonary hazards, since the cleansing of the atmosphere creates good conditions to increase the concentration of nucleation mode particles.

Emission factors for gas-powered vehicles traveling through road tunnels in São Paulo, Brazil.

The objective of this study was to improve the vehicular emissions inventory for the light- and heavy-duty fleet in the metropolitan area of São Paulo (MASP), Brazil. To that end, we measured vehicle emissions in road tunnels located in the MASP. On March 22-26, 2004 and May 04-07, 2004, respectively, CO, CO2, NOx, SO2, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions were measured in two tunnels: the Janio Quadros, which carries light-dutyvehicles; and the Maria Maluf, which carries light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty diesel trucks. Pollutant concentrations were measured inside the tunnels, and background pollutant concentrations were measured outside of the tunnels. The mean CO and NOx emission factors (in g km(-1)) were, respectively, 14.6 +/- 2.3 and 1.6 +/- 0.3 for light-duty vehicles, compared with 20.6 +/- 4.7 and 22.3 +/- 9.8 for heavy-duty vehicles. The total VOCs emission factor for the Maria Maluf tunnel was 1.4 +/- 1.3 g km(-1). The main VOCs classes identified were aromatic, alkane, and aldehyde compounds. For the heavy-duty fleet, NOx emission factors were approximately 14 times higher than those found for the light-duty fleet. This was attributed to the high levels of NOx emissions from diesel vehicles.