Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition.

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

Use of Death Certificates to Identify Tuberculosis-Related Deaths in Washington State.

CONTEXT: Death certificates are routinely used to estimate tuberculosis (TB) mortality rates. The validity of International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes and text cause of death data for this purpose is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of ICD-10 coded and text cause of death data in identifying TB-related deaths in Washington State. DESIGN: Cross-sectional descriptive study comparing TB-related deaths detected through Washington State death certificates to TB-related deaths identified in the Washington State TB registry during 2009-2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Sensitivity and positive predictive value of ICD-10 coded and text cause of death definitions in identifying TB-related deaths compared to the TB registry. RESULTS: All methods for identifying TB-related deaths using death certificate data overestimated the number of TB-related deaths compared to the tuberculosis registry. The positive predictive value ranged from 22% for a TB ICD-10 code as an underlying or multiple cause of death to 56% for TB listed in the direct cause of death text field. Seventeen (33%) of 51 subjects assigned with a TB ICD-10 code as an underlying or multiple cause of death had no evidence of TB on the death certificate and were not present in the TB registry. CONCLUSIONS: Death certificates were not highly predictive of TB-related deaths. Use of the direct cause of death text field was the most accurate method to identify a TB-related death when using death certificates. Specific ICD-10 coding algorithms may misclassify subjects as having died from TB.

Epidemiology of human Mycobacterium bovis disease, California, USA, 2003-2011.

We conducted a retrospective review of California tuberculosis (TB) registry and genotyping data to evaluate trends, analyze epidemiologic differences between adult and child case-patients with Mycobacterium bovis disease, and identify risk factors for M. bovis disease. The percentage of TB cases attributable to M. bovis increased from 3.4% (80/2,384) in 2003 to 5.4% (98/1,808) in 2011 (p = 0.002). All (6/6) child case-patients with M. bovis disease during 2010-2011 had >1 parent/guardian who was born in Mexico, compared with 38% (22/58) of child case-patients with M. tuberculosis disease (p = 0.005). Multivariate analysis of TB case-patients showed Hispanic ethnicity, extrapulmonary disease, diabetes, and immunosuppressive conditions, excluding HIV co-infection, were independently associated with M. bovis disease. Prevention efforts should focus on Hispanic binational families and adults with immunosuppressive conditions. Collection of additional risk factors in the national TB surveillance system and expansion of whole-genome sequencing should be considered.

Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Distribution of Visual Acuity and Progression Risk in a Large Registry.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding the progression to geographic atrophy (GA) in late dry age-related macular degeneration (dAMD) can support development opportunities for dAMD treatments. We characterized dAMD by distribution of visual acuity (VA) categories and evaluated VA progression risk by disease stage. METHODS: This retrospective observational study used data from the American Academy of Ophthalmology IRIS® Registry (Intelligent Research in Sight) to identify patients diagnosed with dAMD in ≥ 1 eye from January 2016 through December 2019 (index date) with ≥ 1 visit and ≥ 1 VA measurement recorded post-index date. Patients were followed until the date of last visit, last contribution for diagnosing provider, or diagnosis of neovascular AMD post-index. Models were utilized to describe the distribution of VA categories and progression to worsening VA. RESULTS: Data from 593,277 patients were analyzed. At baseline, 64.4% had mild disease, 29.4% intermediate, and 2.9%/3.3% had GA with/without subfoveal involvement. Most patients with mild (88.4%) and intermediate (79.7%) disease and GA without subfoveal involvement (57.1%) had baseline VA ≥ 20/63 in the study eye; 72.0% of patients with GA with subfoveal involvement had VA < 20/63. Modeled results showed lower VA with more progressive stage at baseline. Annual probability of stable dAMD based on baseline stage ranged from 82.1% (GA without) to 92.3% (GA with subfoveal involvement). Annual progression probability to GA without/with subfoveal involvement was 0.4% for mild and 5.5% for intermediate disease and from dry to neovascular AMD, 0.5% for mild and 8.0% for intermediate disease. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this analysis of a large database of electronic health records complement those from randomized trials and show that patients with more advanced dAMD have lower VA at baseline and that VA progression is generally faster with each progressive stage. Together these findings highlight the disease burden and trajectory of dAMD as well as opportunities for addressing unmet needs.

Dry age-related macular degeneration (dAMD) is a disease that progressively worsens over time. As the disease progresses, patients start to lose their vision, leading to a substantial burden on their quality of life and finances due to the need for increased healthcare services. As of 2022, there are no medications available to reverse or stop worsening of dAMD. This study used real-world data from a large registry of electronic health records to increase the understanding of how patients progress through the stages of dAMD. By reviewing patient records, we were able to identify approximately 600,000 patients with confirmed dAMD. These patients were then followed over time, and we were able to confirm that patients with a lower ability to see at the beginning of our review period had more advanced dAMD. We also found that as patients' disease worsened, their vision also decreased. These findings highlight the need for new medication options to reverse or delay the worsening of dAMD and improve the quality of life for patients.

Emulating VIEW 1 and VIEW 2 Clinical Trial Outcome Data Using the American Academy of Ophthalmology IRIS Registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: A retrospective, noninterventional cohort study of the American Academy of Ophthalmology IRIS Registry, an electronic health record (EHR)-based comprehensive eye disease and condition registry, intended to assess whether the IRIS® Registry (Intelligent Research in Sight) could emulate the VIEW randomized clinical trials (VIEW RCTs) eligibility criteria, treatment protocol regimen, and primary endpoint. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Deidentified patients having an anti-VEGF injection of aflibercept or ranibizumab between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2018, from the IRIS Registry. Patients were treated in accordance with one of three treatment regimens from the VIEW RCT: monthly intravitreal aflibercept injection (IAI 2Q4), intravitreal aflibercept every 2 months after 3 initial monthly doses (IAI 2Q8), or monthly ranibizumab (RQ4) injection. The main outcome measures are the number and proportion of patients meeting VIEW RCT eligibility and treatment group criteria, demographic, and clinical differences between IRIS Registry treatment groups, mean change in best documented visual acuity at one year, and evaluation of the primary endpoint of the VIEW RCT: difference in the proportion of patients maintaining vision. RESULTS: Among the 90,900 patients who met VIEW RCT eligibility criteria, 4,457 (4.85%) met treatment group criteria. The percentage of patients maintaining vision at one year was over 90%. No statistically significant difference was observed when comparing the proportion of patients maintaining vision among the RQ4 treatment group to the IAI 2Q4 or IAI 2Q8 treatment group. CONCLUSIONS: A small percentage of real-world patients met VIEW RCT study eligibility criteria and treatment protocol regimen. Among patients meeting all available criteria, the primary endpoint interpretation yielded by an observational EHR-based dataset suggested comparable results to the VIEW RCT. [Ophthalmic Surg Lasers Imaging Retina 2023;54:6-14.].

Using social media to estimate Zika's impact on tourism: #babymoon, 2014-2017.

Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause microcephaly and other birth defects. We hypothesized that the Latin America Zika epidemic resulted in pregnant women and their partners adopting behavioral changes to limit risk, leading them to forego travel to Zika-affected locations. We evaluated this hypothesis by studying travelers' intent and behavior through Twitter data related to babymoon: a holiday taken by parents-to-be before their baby is born. We found the odds of mentioning representative Zika-affected locations in #babymoon tweets dropped significantly (Odds ratio: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.20-0.40) after the Zika-microcephaly association became well-known. This result was further corroborated through a content analysis of #babymoon tweets mentioning Zika-affected locations, which identified if the Twitter user was physically present in the Zika-affected locations. Conversely, we found a small but statistically insignificant increase in the odds of mentioning Zika-free locations from #babymoon tweets (Odds Ratio: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27) after the Zika-microcephaly association became well-known.

Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index.

INTRODUCTION: Robust metrics for national-level preparedness are critical for assessing global resilience to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. However, existing preparedness assessments focus primarily on public health systems or specific legislative frameworks, and do not measure other essential capacities that enable and support public health preparedness and response. METHODS: We developed an Epidemic Preparedness Index (EPI) to assess national-level preparedness. The EPI is global, covering 188 countries. It consists of five subindices measuring each country's economic resources, public health communications, infrastructure, public health systems and institutional capacity. To evaluate the construct validity of the EPI, we tested its correlation with proxy measures for preparedness and response capacity, including the timeliness of outbreak detection and reporting, as well as vaccination rates during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. RESULTS: The most prepared countries were concentrated in Europe and North America, while the least prepared countries clustered in Central and West Africa and Southeast Asia. Better prepared countries were found to report infectious disease outbreaks more quickly and to have vaccinated a larger proportion of their population during the 2009 pandemic. CONCLUSION: The EPI measures a country's capacity to detect and respond to infectious disease events. Existing tools, such as the Joint External Evaluation (JEE), have been designed to measure preparedness within a country over time. The EPI complements the JEE by providing a holistic view of preparedness and is constructed to support comparative risk assessment between countries. The index can be updated rapidly to generate global estimates of pandemic preparedness that can inform strategy and resource allocation.

Completion Rate and Side-Effect Profile of Three-Month Isoniazid and Rifapentine Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection in an Urban County Jail.

In an urban jail population, 3 months of isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP) was associated with an 85% latent tuberculosis infection treatment completion rate compared with 18% in a standard 9-month isoniazid treatment group. Among the 91 patients who started 3HP therapy, there were 2 treatment discontinuations from adverse drug reactions.